Black-Eyed Susan Day turned out a lot like we discussed with Rick Hammerle on ATR as a nearly unrelenting parade of low prices prevailed. There was no shortage of exciting finishes, but there was a dearth of big mutuels other than the explosive 5th race allowance where eye-crossing $54 Righteous Place stayed on. After that, the series of stakes winners all made sense.
On to Preakness Day with the sobbering reminder that the obvious seem to largely demand respect at Old Hilltop no matter how original you want to make your thinking. Last year, only Skyring ($19.60 in the Murphy) paid a real price, while in 2011 Super Espresso ($24.20 in the DuPont) and Chinglish (Also $19.60 in the Murphy) charged the tote. In 2010, Taqarub ($28.60 in MD Sprint) and Strike a Deal ($30.20) were chalkbusters while Social Queen ($20.20 in the Gallorette) and Everyday Heroes ($16.40 in the last Hirsch Jacobs) helped boost bankrolls the year Rachel won the feature.
Remember that .50 triples and P3′s are available here which can help you spread or press very effectively depending on your approach. Hope everyone did well Friday and that Preakness Day is safe for the horses and riders and profitable for you!
PIMLICO RACE COURSE
1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)
Most Likely: #5 Benny Or Local 7-2
Best Value: #8 Wild Louis 8-1
Next Best: #6 Hakama 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Aussi Austin 3-1
2nd: Deputed Testimony S-H’cap, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Hello Lover (7-5) a real horse for Butch Reid but is returning for 7yo debut here off a 4+ month break. Isn’t going to have a big pace to close in to either. Likely winner still, but feels a little vulnerable. Add #3 Love Talk to your Superfecta plays..
Most Likely: #9 Hello Lover 7-5
Next Best: #7 No Brakes 5-1
Best Value: #4 Arctic Raven 30-1
Exotics Use: #5 Who Dat Boy 7-2
3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)
Note that PIM has a thick, lush turf course and those that haven’t tried grass or are less than fit can struggle over it and/or tire. I bring it up because Brooklyn Cowboy tries lawn first time. His dam No Better Time had sibling (MD-bred stalwart Gala Spinaway) that was quite OK on weeds..
Best Value: #12 Hesagoldmine 15-1
Next Best: #5 Bowman’s Boy 9-2
Exotics Use: #8 Brooklyn Cowboy 7-2
Super Add: #7 Relentless Move 4-1
4th: Rollicking, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Sweet Emma Rose 7-5
Next Best: #4 No Nay Never 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Take Time to Pray 8-1
Super Add: #5 Silvertonguedtommy 8-1
5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Joy 6-1
Best Value: #6 Monster Sleeping 12-1
Next Best: #9 Nokaze 4-1
Exotics Use: #11 Waquoit’s Dance 6-1
6th: 4th Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)
Zee Bros cuts back to three quarters from 1m Derby Trial, but note best run came at seven eighths. Is he a ‘tweener’? This has chaos written all over it..
Best Value: #7 City of Westin 6-1
Next Best: #2 Zee Bros 2-1
Exotics Use: #9 Undrafted 3-1
Super Add: #3 Bobcat Jim 6-1
7th: 48th James Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Fun betting affair and a source of plus mutuels the last 2 years as cited above. Notacatbutallama doesn’t scare. Wry Me (20-1) is a full to Notassharpasyouthink who was quite OK on the grass..
Most Likely: #10 Redwood Kitten 5-1
Best Value: #3 Wry Me 20-1
Next Best: #6 Shining Copper 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 Heat Press 6-1
Super Add: #1 Notacatbutallama 9-5
8th: Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)
P5 is a mandatory payout for Preakness Day..
Most Likely: #7 Brushed by a Star 2-1
Next Best: #6 Summer Applause 9-5
Best Value: #4 Daydreamin Gracie 15-1
Exotics Use: #5 Sea Island 6-1
<$75 P4 Play:
4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
9th: 62nd Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Samitar 5-2
Best Value: #10 Appealing Cat 10-1
Next Best: #3 Pianist 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Hard Not to Like 10-1
10th: 27th Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
This will be a war with waves of speed, stalkers and closers..
Most Likely: #4 Hardened Wildcat 4-1
Best Value: #6 Poseidon’s Warrior 10-1
Next Best: #7 Candyman E 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Laurie’s Rocket 6-1
11th: 112th Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)
Nice edition of this..
Best Value: #4 Imagining 5-1
Next Best: #2 Optimizer 7-2
Exotics Use: #9 Swift Warrior 4-1
Super Add: #12 Two Months Rent 15-1
12th: 138th Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super Hi-5)
Hard to believe one would feel more nervous about this spot than the chaotic potential offered in the Derby, but that’s the way it’s been for me this week looking forward to Orb’s follow up to Kentucky. Phipps-Janney colt continues to improve and wins this unless something unforeseen occurs or someone utterly freaks. The 2 horses here about whom we don’t have full disclosure are Govenor Charlie and Departing, so they offer the stranger danger and upside. Mylute is one of the Derby also-rans that looks like he can still advance..
Most Likely: #1 Orb 1-1
Best Value: #8 Govenor Charlie 12-1
Next Best: #4 Departing 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Mylute 5-1
Hi-5 Play: #9 Itsmyluckyday 10-1
<$75 P4 Play:
4x3x6x1 = $72 ($36 for .50)
<$100 P5 Play:
2x4x3x8x1 = 192 x .50 = $96
13th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #8 Code West 4-5
Best Value: #1 Bluegrass Springs 10-1
Next Best: #10 Crown Polis 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Forest Jingles 15-1
Hi-5 Play: #12 Dinos Romance 8-1