Long, full Saturday of action will give rise to enormous Super Bowl Sunday featuring a $353k carryover at Santa Anita which will likely exceed $1,500,000 by the early 3:00p ET post time at Arcadia. The stakes action Saturday started out as numbingly formful in New York with Nicole H, Calibrachoa and Alpha acing the Correction, Toboggan and Withers. Was disappointed to miss even a small P6 hit when SCR of the Dutrow-Dominguez nightcap favorite limited exposure while plausible Diamond District. At Tampa, things proved a little more juicy with Battle Hardened taking the Sam Davis at 9-2 and then explosive with I’ll Have Another’s 43-1 upset of the Bob Lewis and Ultimate Eagle $17.00 wiring of the Strub. Earlier at the Great Race Place, Mr. Commons survived an inquiry at .40 to start his season off well in the Arcadia. Hope everyone did well… Let’s go after the big pot at SA, just like the degenerates in ‘Luck’! (Ep. 2 tonight at 9:00a ET if you’re not watching Giants-Pats.)

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: S/ALW, 4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Challenging start to rich sequence with all but 30-1 Cosmic Baby eligible for success. Feels like there is too much speed signed on for Mint Humor, Warren’s Dr. Yang and blinkered Merlin Z to succeed, so I’ll pitch my tent with the presser-stalker-closer options..

Best Value: #6 Seeking Solace 9-2
Next Best: #5 Stone Hot 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Bull Ring 7-2
Super Add: #3 Titian 12-1

4th: Cal-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Though Twelve Folds didn’t prove out in turf bow last week, second time start Briteness should still boss this group. And on top of the High Brite filly, Carla Gaines has the other player in debuting Fabulous Fashion..

Most Likely: #5 Briteness 2-1
Next Best: #8 Fabulous Fashion 4-1
Best Value: #9 Saturday Nite Wish 9-2
Exotics Use: #1 Give You Glory 6-1

5th: Super Bowl Party S/HCP, 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hammerle making this quirky conditional event a tradition. Kind of an absence of speed here and loose horse going 7f mighty danderous. For that reason, it seems like Close to the Edge is the one to work around. If ready enough off 137 day break, may prove tough to catch. Turnbacks Gatheratthealter and Hiatus (T2D as well) make sense as ones to fear. Gutshot Straight retains Martin Garcia while King Ledley and Trumpet Player Jay don’t win a lot but always seems within range..

Most Likely: #8 Close to the Edge 4-1
Best Value: #4 Hiatus 8-1
Next Best: #7 Gatheratthealter 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Gutshot Straight 4-1

6th: OC-$62.5k/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Celestial Kitten the one to beat but this race a nightmare for those playing narrow tickets with almost every missy in here possible. Imperialistic Diva looks like she can jump back forward though I wonder if she doesn’t prefer added ground. NoCal invader Chasin Perfection lures Nakatani and will be a price. Could offer positives for the rest of the field. Tough hurdle..

Most Likely: #6 Celestial Kitten 5-2
Best Value: #7 Imperialistic Diva 8-1
Next Best: #1 A Jealous Woman 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 Chasin Perfection 12-1

7th: 74th San Antonio (G2), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

SCR #1 Tres Borrachos.. BC Classic runner-up Game On Dude starts his 5yo campaign and will be singled on vast majority of tickets..

Most Likely: #3 Game On Dude 4-5
Next Best: #2 Uh Oh Bango 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Victory Pete 6-1

8th: MDN CLM-$20k, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Messy finish to sequence..

Most Likely: #12 Meadow Road 9-5
Best Value: #6 Del Mar Johnny 8-1
Next Best: #10 Creative Writer 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Knucklebuster 6-1
Super/Hi-5: #9 On I Win 12-1

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 3-5-6-7
4: 5
5: 4-8
6: 1-2-6-7
7: 3
8: 6-10-12

4x1x2x4x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4-5-6-7-8
6: 1-2-3-4-6-7-8
7: 3
8: 6-10-12

7x7x1x3 = 147 x .50 = $73.50

Good luck!
Steve

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Race to watch with any number of nicely-bred, lightly-raced and well-matched 3yo’s. Inflation Target is a half to the fast Rattlesnake Bridge and firster Luckysdream a half to Mrs. Weber’s turf routing MSW My Lordship. Ashado son Steele Road and Inflation Target were close behind next out LRL stake winner Beggarthyneighbor and Wild Target ran into tough Hardened Wildcat in his debut. Mr. Ast moves to Levine and gets Ramon. Excellent group, many of which might normally have gone to Florida for the winter if not for the NY purse boost..

Most Likely: #4 Steele Road 9-5 5th
Best Value: #2 Wild Target 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Inflation Target 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Mr. Beer Goggles 6-1 4th

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$99k Double C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #7 Hook and Lateral 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Digital Joe 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Mr. Rosenthal 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 S. Z. Madison 12-1 4th

6th: 73rd Correction, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Nicole H 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Winning Image 4-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Golden Mystery 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Streaker 5-1 5th

7th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Start of the P4 so watch the board for some clues to this tricky group of Empire colts and geldings. There are angles galore here with several 2nd timers from sharp outfits stretching out (Pearl of Wisdom, Fr. Peter’s Missal, Wistful Wildcat, Rkatsiteli) and jockey upgrades like Dominguez getting on Zetterholm..

Most Likely: #1 Pearl of Wisdom 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #9 Rkatsiteli 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Wistful Wildcat 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Zetterholm 3-1 WON ($5.90)

8th: 119th Toboggan (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Good edition of this great old standard which dates back to late 19th Century Bronx oval Morris Park. Defending winner #1a Calibrachoa figures tough again and would join impressive list of back-to-back winners of this famed event that includes Al Fried’s Affirmed Success (2002-03), Rippey (1948-49), Greentree’s Devil Diver (1943-44), Geo. Widener’s Hall of Famer Eight Thirty (1940-41), Brookmeade’s Okapi (1933-34), J. E. Widener’s Osmand (1928-29), High Noon (1915-16) and Augie Belmont’s Octagon (1897-98). Tony Dutrow portion of Dubb ownership entry (#2b Candyman E) is in career best form and merits serious consideration on your multi tickets..

SCR #6 J J’s Luck Train..

Most Likely: #2b (POE) Calibrachoa 7-5 WON ($2.90)/3rd
Next Best: #1a (POE) Candyman E 9-5 4th/5th

9th: 132nd Withers (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Long a late season sophomore staple, The Withers is cleverly being revitalized here to add a second graded event, with next month’s Gotham, to the run up toward the Wood Memorial. Alpha seeks to become Kiaran McLaughlin’s third Withers winner (Divine Park, Mr. Fantasy) off a strong showing in the Count Fleet to start his 3yo campaign. Bernardini homebred from Darley has had well-publicized deportment issues pre-race, but otherwise looks exceedingly formidable against solid but undistinguished set of foes..

SCR #3 Swag Daddy..

Most Likely: #7 Alpha 1-1 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #4 King Kid 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Tiger Walk 6-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Late SCR
Next Best: #8 Keechi Bullet 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Hopeful Boy 3-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Jitalian 12-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-7
6: 1-7
7: 1-4-5-8-9
8: 2
9: 7
10: 5-8-10

3x2x5x1x1x3 = 90 x $2 = $180

$2 Pick 6 (4/1/5/2,6/3,7/3) Paid $12.80 (5OF6) x 3 = $38.40

$50/$25 P4 Plays:

7: 1-4-5-8-9
8: 1-2
9: 7
10: 2-5-7-8-10

5x2x1x5 = $50 ($25 for .50)

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

11th: Sam F. Davis (G3) 3yo, 8.5f

Tampa prep regularly quirky. Don’t want any part of low number on Team Valor turf horse State of Play and only including Eckabroni defensively with Pletcher horses in Florida performing over the top. Battle Hardened and Prospective are the two most serious horses in the field and are well-priced. Neck ‘n Neck is steadily improving for Wilkes. Will likely have GP Derby winner Reveron 3rd on my exotic tickets with top pair..

Best Value: #3 Battle Hardened 12-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #11 Prospective 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Eckabroni 7-2 11th
Super Add: #6 Neck ‘n Neck 5-1 5th

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, Place Pick All, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mile High Magic 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Eaton Hall 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Immaculate 12-1 WON ($19.40)

2nd: CLM-$12.5k/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Seek the Light 4-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Warren’s Patron 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Me Salty 9-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Jeffery’s Groove 8-1 13th

3rd: 53rd Arcadia (G2), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Hard to envision Mr. Commons being bested here..

Most Likely: #8 Mr. Commons 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #6 Willyconker 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Calimonico 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Pathfork 5-2 6th

4th: Cal-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Jonny’s Choice 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Real Conundrum 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Good Luck Redd 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Gifted Monarch 12-1 5th

5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$65k P6 C/O starts here..

Nothing clever to impart with obvious set of faves just appearing to have edge..

Best Value: #7 Mirror Ball 9-2 10th
Next Best: #10 Miss Communication 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Belle Passe 5-2 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #1 Ramona’s Ride 8-1 9th

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 5-6
2: 2-3-6-7-8-10
3: 8
4: 5-7-10
5: 1-2-7-10

2x6x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 74th Robert B. Lewis (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Strong set of sophs for this lead up to the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby with top runners from the HOL Futurity and more. Beyond the obvious, Isn’t He Clever’s stretchout off Riley Allison demolition is worth following and supporting. Development of Royal Delta brother Empire Way another sub-plot here and binocular set says he ‘s still kind of torpid..

Best Value: #1 Isn’t He Clever 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Rousing Sermon 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Liason 9-5 DNF-Lost rider
Super Add: #5 Sky Kingdom 6-1 5th

7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very good, deep ALW going 9 panels on the lawn..

Best Value: #1 Truism 6-1 9th
Next Best: #12 Unusual Jazz 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Twin Six 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Depriciable 8-1 6th

8th: 64th Strub (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

As in the Arcadia with Mr. Commons, Tapizar will take some beating. Doubt anyone can run with him early and this strip will make him hard to reel in..

Most Likely: #7 Tapizar 6-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Ultimate Eagle 9-2 WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #2 Prayer for Relief 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Balladry 8-1 5th

9th: CLM-$25k, 4+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Crossing the Line 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #12 Wild Revenge 12-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Mark the Bench 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Loro 6-1 3rd

10th: OC-$40k/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Thumbs up to Hammer for carding a premium ALW like this to end great card. Setsuko back and Carla Gaines has an unexploded powderkeg in American Blend..

Most Likely: #10 American Blend 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Industry Leader 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Setsuko 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Graeme Crackerjack 9-2 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-7-10
6: 1-2-5-6
7: 1
8: 7
9: 2-3-12
10: 9-10

4x4x1x1x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-11-12
8: 2-4-7
9: 2-3-12
10: 1-4-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

 

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM-$10k, 4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$25k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #1 Dubai Gold 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Merlin Bay 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Big Polk a Dot 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Marquet Rebel 3-1 WON ($10.00)

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Two Seventeen 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Romancing the Gold 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Raconteur 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Holiday Promise 5-1 4th

6th: CLM-$30k, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fun betting race. The 2 faves are rock solid, but Milwaukee Mixer got on dirt finally last time and may improve even more here and Sasueno cuts back to prefered trip after failed route attempt..

Most Likely: #9 Late SCR (Ran off)
Next Best: #4 Ultimo Principe 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Milwaukee Mixer 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Sasueno 12-1 6th

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched group. Hard to argue with the way they’re running out of the McLaughlin barn under the watchful eye of Artie Magnuson..

Most Likely: #5 Crossbow 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #3 DePrice 6-1 5th
Best Value: #4 El Gran Sol 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Starforaday 3-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Big SCR of #1 Captains Cat (9-5). Had hoped to lean on him as a second P6 single. Far less confident in #7 Riboletti..

Most Likely: #7 Riboletti 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Charlestonian 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Voter 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #6 Deluxe Package 12-1 4th

9th: NY-MDN CLM/$15k, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (Super)

Yeesh. Rough looking group..

Most Likely: #8 Mojito Mint 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Sheeds Paisley 5-2 DNF
Exotics Use: #4 Tropical Jetset 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #7 She Talks Too Much 30-1 5th

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1
5: 6
6: 3-4-6-9
7: 5
8: 3-5-6-7
9: 1-4-8

1x1x4x1x4x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-6-9
7: 3-4-5
8: 3-5-6-7
9: 1-4-8

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Tricky Wednesday card produced $37k P5 carryover for Thursday. Caught a couple of cashers including Endorsement-Golden Gulch keying of exotics. As has been the case, you need to play on the fly and react to the board at Gulfstream as opportunities arise. Running behind already, so let’s get to the P5..

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM-$10k/N3L, F&M-4+, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Twin Cities 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Grey Tordilla 8-1 9th
Next Best: #12 Undisputed Queen 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Goddes of Fortune 4-1 7th

7th: CLM-$30k/N3L, 4+, 8.5f-T/24′ (P4, P3, DD, Super)

3-1 Laconic is OK, but not appreciably better than about 5 others. Protect in exotics/multi but I’m generally against him..

Most Likely: #3 Bwana Brave 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #11 The Best Glacier 8-1 11th
Next Best: #10 Courage to Be 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Road to Babylon 20-1 8th

8th: MDN CLM-$$50k, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Casalinga 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Great Chance 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Emma’s Encore 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Why Should I 12-1 6th

9th: CLM-$25k, F&M-4+, 1m-T/84′ (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Ten K Cat 3-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #10 Charming Thunder 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Repossee 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Late SCR

10th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m-T/24′ (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Sir Rabbit 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Empty Handed 6-1 10th
Next Best: #11 David K 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Wild Memories 6-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #4 Tahoe Warrior 12-1  8th

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-8-12
7: 3-4-10-11
8: 1-5-9-10
9: 7
10: 1-7-11

3x4x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-6-10-11
8: 1-2-5-9-10
9: 7
10: 1-7-8-11

5x5x1x4 = 100 x .50 = $50

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

One of the week’s best races goes at 2:03p ET on a Wednesday… Endorsement continues his attempt to reach fruition after nearly 2 years on the sidelines and faces 8 rock solid foes. I’m looking for Castellano to keep close contact with the favorite on 5-1 Golden Gulch. Any number of well-priced players can be involved in the exotics here, so don’t be shy about using them..

Best Value: #3 Golden Gulch 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Endorsement 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Numb Lips 8-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Praetereo 3-1 3rd

6th: S/ALW, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dixie Slam 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Clean Shot 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Abdel’s Ghost 5-1 WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Conflicting Report 8-1 4th

7th: CLM-$25k, F&M-4+, 1m-T/24′ (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting group and favored Friendly Selection is not any better than many well-priced options..

Most Likely: #10 Zubani 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Spring Beauty 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Friendly Selection 3-1 DQ’d to 8th
Super Add: #2 Pistol Peg 10-1 7th

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Some solid soph fillies with Chuck Peery’s The Cat’s All That the gal to beat..

Most Likely: #1 Off Limits 3-1 4th
Besy Value: #4 Hot Roots 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Super Add: #3 Macanuda 8-1 6th

9th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T/84′ (DD, Super)

Wide open with debuts from well bred turfers..

Most Likely: #3 Al’s Uncle 10-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Saturday Classic 7-2 12th
Next Best: #12 Lord Tarzan 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Scat Happy 6-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM-$35k, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T/24′ (Super, Super Hi-5)

Reduced quality level but equally challenging group for fillies with Princess Malia (3-1) having a modest paper edge. Looks like 8 of the 12 are plausable..

Most Likely: #7 Princess Malia 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 More Than Crafty 15-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Mountable 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Simply Dashing 12-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Jabez 10-1 4th

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-7
7: 3-10
8: 1-4
9: 3-7-9-12
10: 7-9-11-12

2x2x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-10
8: 1-4
9: 3-7-9-12
10: 2-7-9-10-11-12

3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72