2/29: Aqueduct ($123.7k P5 C/O)

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AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ringgood 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Hellbender 7-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #3 Stash My Money 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Too Early 5-1 2nd

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Our hard-trying Carlisle Belle makes her 12th start of the year here and has been instrumental in making 2019 Dee Tee’s best year in wins and earnings (36/4-4-4; $147,109). Stretches back out to a mile after agonizing half length beat at the start of the month, but needs a bit of a collapse up front to pass all the top players like Am Impazible, Paved With Gold and The Great Johanna..

Most Likely: #8 Am Impazible 4-1 WON ($7.70)
Next Best: #3 The Great Johanna 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Carlisle Belle 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Paved With Gold 7-2 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Deep, solid ALW field with what appears to be an honest pace scenario with 1-3-7-8-9-10 the prime players..

Most Likely: #10 The Caretaker 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #7 Charlie McCoy 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Potomac 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Spectre Bond 8-1 5th

8th: Bay Ridge-NY, F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Small budget plays will understandably rely on Our Super Nova..

Most Likely: #5 Our Super Nova 4-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Lucky Move 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Mrs. Orb 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Out of Orbit 6-1 3rd

9th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo, 1m

Feels like you’ll need as many as you can afford in this hodge podge assembly..

Most Likely: #6 Yah Huh 8-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Icy Dude 8-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Drink to the Clown 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Uncle Ned 5-2 6th

P5 Grid:

5: 8-9(A), 3-4-5 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
6: 3-8(A), – (B), 4-11 (C)
7: 7-9-10(A), – (B), 3 (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 4-6(C)
9: 4-5-6 (A), 2-7-8 (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x1x6 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
“C” Backups: $99

P4 Grid:

6: 3-8(A), 4-11 (B), 5 (C)
7: 3-7-9-10(A), – (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 4-6(C)
9: 4-5-6-8 (A), 2-3-7-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x8 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 2x4x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

12/28: Santa Anita (Opening Day)

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SANTA ANITA ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

Here’s to a successful season in Arcadia.. Hope everyone had a joyful Christmas and are poised for a great new year and decade!

With Flavien Pratsick and off his mounts, here are the revised riding assignments..

R2 ~ #2 Brill– Flavien Prat changed to Mike E. Smith
R4 ~ #1 Fivestar Lynch (IRE)– Flavien Prat changed to Javier Castellano
R7 ~ #5 Bellafina– Flavien Prat changed to Victor Espinoza
R8 ~ #1 Tiny Tina– Flavien Prat changed to Javier Castellano
R9 ~ #1 Much Better– Flavien Prat changed to Joseph Talamo
R10 ~ #3 Ocean Fury– Flavien Prat changed to Geovanni Franco

5th: San Antonio (G2), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Gift Box looking to get ‘next year’ going by repeating here, but Midcourt is emergent with upside yet. Draft Pick far from impossible..

Most Likely: #2 Gift Box 9-5 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #6 Midcourt 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Draft Pick 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Gray Magician 4-1 5th

6th: American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Mucho Unusual 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lady Prancelot 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Vibrance 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Giza Goddess 7-2 4th

7th: La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Bellafina strictly the one to beat, but want to take the price (7-2 by post time?) on well drawn and Rosario-assisted Mother Mother with a cautionary proviso.. 3yo-4yo’s coming back from significant time away can make big forward moves and Mother Mother is working like she’s prepared to do that. However, while he’s won the La Brea 7 times, this particular gambit has not worked particularly well for Baffert the last 10 years with Emboldened (3rd last year after being away since May), Maybellene (7th in ’15 after being away since March) and Gabby’s Golden Gal (7th as fave in ’09 after being away since July) as examples. As a sidebar, Baffert did win the ’13 Malibu with Shakin It Up off a 9 month break..

Most Likely: #9 Mother Mother 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Bellafina 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Del Mar May 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Bell’s the One 7-2 5th

8th: Bobby Frankel (G3), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mirth way the horse to beat, but presence of zippy Streak of Luck, Ms. Peintour AND Harmless means she’ll have pace pressure if she seeks the point. She has not rated (going longer) in Smith’s 2 rides on her. Excellent Sunset, now under care of Baltas, doffs hood and adds Rosario. Should enjoy perfect trip..

Most Likely: #7 Mirth 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #2 Excellent Sunset 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Curlin’s Journey 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Don’t Blame Judy 5-1 4th

9th: Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Omaha Beach the obvious focal point, but Complexity came back sharply in prep for this and re-blinkered Much Better will get the lead firing from the inside. Should be a chess match among Smith, Castellano and Prat on those 3 while Rosario looks to make the latest move on turnbacking Roadster..

Most Likely: #5 Omaha Beach 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Complexity 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Roadster 3-1 2nd

10th: Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Need to single somewhere in P5 and Mo Forza appears on his way to becoming West Coast’s top turfer..

Most Likely: #5 Mo Forza 9-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #8 Proud Pedro 15-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Neptune’s Storm 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Originaire 15-1 2nd

11th: Cal-MCLM/50, 2yo, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Include the Tax 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #11 Totally Tiger 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Champs Success 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Tiger the Man 6-1 5th

P5 Grid:

7: 2-5-9 (A), 1-6-7(B), 3-4 (C)
8: 2-7(A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-4-5(A), – (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5(A), – (B), 6-8 (C)
11: 2-11 (A), 3-5 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/7/5/5/2) Paid $403.65

P4 Grid:

8: 2-7(A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-4-5(A), – (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5(A), 6-8 (B), – (C)
11: 2-3-5-6-9-11 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 2x3x1x6 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/5/5/2) Paid $18.60

12/14: Gulfstream (5th-11th)

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GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: A>W/N1X, 3+, 1m-T/84′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Sayyaaf 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Conviction Trade 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 J Beresford Tipton 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Great Kahuna 10-1 7th

6th: Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-3+, 6f (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Problem here is that despite what looks like a good amount of pace, someone could gets loose.. but whom? Since I’m not playing the Rainbow 6, good spot to take a swing and Blazen Betsy’s last is competitive here. Crichton strong first time with new stock, off the break and reaching for Irad..

Best Value: #5 Blazen Betsy 20-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Bronx Beauty 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Stormy Embrace 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lady’s Island 5-2 WON ($8.60)

7th: My Charmer, F&M-3+, 1m-T/12′ (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Mitchell Road 9-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #8 Joy Nidera 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Na Pali Spirit 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Take These Chains 12-1 2nd

8th: Rampart (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Cairenn 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Baccarat Fashion 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Molto Bella 9-2 9th
Super Add: #4 Pink Sands 8-1 WON ($11.00)

9th: Ft. Lauderdale (G2), 3+, 9f-T/84′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Exulting 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Cross Border 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Admission Office 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Instilled Regard 8-1 WON ($8.60)

10th: Harlan’s Holiday (G3), 3+, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Realm 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Prince Lucky 2-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Exotics Use: #6 Bodexpress 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Red Crescent 6-1 4th

11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T/24′ (Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 My Point Exactly 10-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #8 King Orb 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Could Be 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Love Nest 20-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Dakota’s Dude 4-1 9th

P5 Grid:

7: 1(A), – (B), 4-8-9 (C)
8: 6-9-10 (A), – (B), 4-8-11 (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 3 (C)
10: 1-6-8 (A), 3-5(B), 4 (C)
11: 8-11(A), – (B), 1-2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 6-9-10 (A), – (B), 4-8-11 (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 3 (C)
10: 1-6-8 (A), 3-5(B), 4 (C)
11: 8-11(A), – (B), 1-2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Empire 6 force out starts here; $600k pool to open..

Tricky start to distribution sequence with several well connected, well bred and well meant types signed on including debuting $725k Or’effice(Md’O/Grace Hall) from Hennig/Courtland, Godolphin’s Tapit/Hystericalady chestnut homebred Tapage, Jane Lyon 2nd out homebred Moon Over Miami(Malibu Moon/Zinzay) from Mott and DATTT Farm’s Juulstone, an American Pharoah bay out of Hessonite sent by Shug..

Best Value: #2 Tapage 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Default Rate 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mischief Afoot 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Or’effice 4-1 4th

6th: 65th Go for Wand (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Invading Spiced Perfectionthe class of this group and seemingly the speed as well with no other truly pace-leaning types involved. On that topic, notable that Jose Ortiz gets aboard Needs Supervisionwho has tactical foot and likely gets forward placement out of last week’s LRL score. Understand those looking to single Spiced to assist Empire budget, but it may not be that simple given that she rarely ventures past 7f and gives 6-10#’s to rest of the field..

Most Likely: #3 Spiced Perfection 3-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Needs Supervision 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Another Broad 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Our Super Nova 6-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Brutal inclusion in already treacherous sequence with 8 first time starters facing 3 that have run. Duarte gets Jose Ortiz for Ego Man; Rosario rides Trash Talkerfor Magner. Of the FTS, ‘run early’ specialist Englehart has Villainous& Two Point Oh; Asmussen barn (Toby Sheets) sends cross-purpose bred Astronaut(Quality Road o/o turfy German mare whose N.A. runners have been barely ordinary); Jonathon Thomas offers Ralph Evans’ Quixotic(Quality Road out of a strong female family) and Mott sends TIM 2yo purchase King Khozan. Slightly prefer those that have run..

Most Likely: #10 Trash Talker 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #11 Ego Man 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Quixotic 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 King Khozan 8-1 5th

8th: 97th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P3, DD0

Deep, interesting field of fillies with what looks like an honest pace scenario. Quality faves established from Hennig (Maedean), Shug (Alandra) and Mott (Lake Avenue), but mid-pack stalkers and closers (Critical Value/8-1; Daphne Moon/8-1; Water White/10-1) with shots at prices abound..

Most Likely: #5 Alandra 4-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Water White 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Critical Value 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Daphne Moon 8-1 8th

9th: 104th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (DD)

O’Dwyer by-passed KY Jockey Club for this opportunity with Shotskiand it may prove fortuitous at the 9f trip given his Blame/Bluegrass Cat mare breeding. Has improved with experience and distance and adds Saez who should take advantage of his tactical foot. 15-1 adds to his appeal. Pletcher pair Alpha Sixty Six& Chase Trackerdoff and don blinkers respectively and look equally imposing as the 2nd/3rd choices. Cleon Joneshas improved each start, but needs to prove out around two turns today. Only major knocks against Forza Di Orois 3-1 price and lack of number power as one of the slower participants on figs..

Best Value: #6 Shotski 15-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #8 Alpha Sixty Six 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Chase Tracker 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Cleon Jones 6-1 7th

10th: 30th Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m

As stressed on ATR Friday, worth noting that for all the bashing the ’19 3yo’s seem to take, the 4 here (Maximum Security, Spun to Run, Network Effect, Looking At Bikinis) are at the heart of the narrative. Now, that story line may also be an indictment of the handicap division at large, but the 4, 5 and 6yo’s that fill out this field have many quality graded stake wins and placements to their credit. Key to approaching this Cigar is how early you expect MaxSec and Spun to Run to engage. If they spar from the bell, they’ll be vulnerable. If Saez seizes control, Maximum Security can pull a Private Zone and wire them. Chad’s pair command attention with Brown having built an impressive record in this event via Patternrecognition and Connect wins and 3rd’s from Practical Joke & Matrooh’s. Bal Harbour(5/3-1-1 at 1m) should get an enviable trip behind the speeds and Tale of Silence(8/2-2-1) another effective at the distance..

Most Likely: #5 Maximum Security 3-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 Bal Harbour 8-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Looking At Bikinis 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Tale of Silence 20-1 11th

Empire 6 Grid:

5: 1-2-4-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 3(A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1-3-10-11 (A), – (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 4x1x4x3x3x3 = 432 x .20 = $86.40
Backups: $71.60

7th: 4x1x2x3x3x3 = 216 x .20 = $43.20
9th: 4x1x4x3x1x3 = 144 x .20 = $28.40

P5 Grid:

6: 3(A), – (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
7: 10-11 (A), 1-3 (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), 2-10 (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), 1-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 1x2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

P4 Grid:

7: 10-11 (A), 1-3 (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), 2-10 (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), 1-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

#11 Little Menace seemingly certain to SCR as he is re-entered in Sunday’s MSW 7th and the 7-5 favorite..

Most Likely: #10 Bango 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Art Collector 10-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #6 American Butterfly 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lykan 6-1 4th

7th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m (Single 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Bayerness 5-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #2 Swiss Skydiver 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Emily’s Oasis 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Three D Flag 8-1 10th

8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Watch for SCR’s as 3 of the AE’s (13-14-15) have real potential here..

Most Likely: #5 On Tilt 5-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Elusive Ruler 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Digital 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Mailman Money 10-1 WON ($51.00)
Super Add: #6 Jack’s Advantage 12-1 5th

Fair Grounds 7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Fleur De Lis P4, P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #14 Ioya Again 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 The Last Zip 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Executive Bonus 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Limnery 4-1 2nd

9th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

More interesting than the Jockey Club with an underlaid fave in Finite (7-5) and several prices that have potential..

Most Likely: #6 His Glory 7-2: Lept forward last pair when sent around 2 turns..
Best Value: #4 Bean 12-1: Favored in dirt debut when she dropped Rocco..
Next Best: #2 Turtle Trax 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Finite 7-5 WON ($3.60)

P4 Grid:

6: 7-10 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
7: 2-9(A), – (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 5-9-12 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), 1-3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

10th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Silver State 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Necker Island 4-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Wells Bayou 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Sprawl 8-1 4th

Fair Grounds 9th: Richie Scherer Memorial, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hotshot Anna 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Blue Uluru 12-1 10th
Next Best: #7 A Little Bit Me 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 May Lily 8-1 3rd

11th: KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Tagg & Sackatoga writing next chapter in Funny Cide II as they come to Churchill with a chance to snare the 2yo Championship..

Most Likely: #3 Tiz the Law 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Enforceable 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 South Bend 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Fighting Seabee 8-1 7th

Fleur De Lis P4 Grid:

FG 7: 4-5-14 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
CD 9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5-7-8 (B), – (C)
FG 9: 4-5(A), 7 (B), – (C)
CD 11: 1-3 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x8x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

12th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sounion 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #10 Civil Servant 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Dark Oak 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Icecap 6-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #12 Draw the Line 12-1 10th

P5 Grid:

8: 5-9-12 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), – (B), 1-4 (C)
12: 9(A), 10 (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x1x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x4x4x1x1 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5-7-8 (B), – (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), 1 (B), 4 (C)
12: 9-10 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x4x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 4x4x1x2 = 32 x .50 = $16