12/3: Del Mar (5th-9th)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: Stormy Liberal, 3+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Turn On The Jets 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Rebel Posse 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Whatmakessammyrun 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Coulthard 5-1 5th

6th: OC/S-ALW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4m, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Army Star 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #1 Flame Rider 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Crowning Gold 4-1 2nd

7th: Jimmy Durante (G3), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Favored Brown invader Liguria (3-1) just OK in what looks like a well-matched bunch. Quickly Park It (8-1) broke MDN here (at trip to boot) and Sell the Dream gets back on lawn where he offers top efforts among top contenders..

Best Value: #2 Quickly Park It 8-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Sell the Dream 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Thebestisyettobe 5-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Liguria 3-1 WON ($4.80)

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #6 Direct Line 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Street Ruckus 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Atomic Drop 4-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Traegar 5-1 WON ($9.60)

9th: Hollywood Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f-T (Hi-5)

If 9f is OK for Wit, he’s going to be tough to beat. After him however, anyone appears eligible for pay slots..

Most Likely: #9 Wit 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 War At Sea SCR
Next Best: #3 Celestial City 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Spycatcher 12-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #1 Cabo Spirit 5-1 5th

P5 Grid:

5: 3-7 (A), – (B), 6-9 (C)
6: 1-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 2-9-10 (A), 11-12 (B), – (C)
8: 2-6-8 (A), 1-4/SCR5 (B), – (C)
9: 9 (A), – (B), 3-8/SCR (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x5x4x1 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 3x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-9 in 5th) + 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-8 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

6: 1-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 2-9-10 (A), 11-12 (B), – (C)
8: 2-6-8 (A), 1-4/SCR5 (B), – (C)
9: 9 (A), – (B), 3-8/SCR (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 2x3x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3-8 in 9th)

11/26: Churchill Downs (Stars II)

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CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ STARS II

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Notable pedigrees throughout including Lady Irene (a half to Beholder/Mendelssohn) and Medaglia Forever (Md’O out of Forever Unbridled).. Several of those that have run have some quality about them and it seems like the well bred firsters could impact as well..

Most Likely: #10 Bru Na Boinne 5-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Vahva 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #4 Lady Irene 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Market Profile 6-1 10th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Point Proven 5-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #9 Spielman 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Endpoint 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Escapologist 5-1 3rd

6th: ALW/N2L, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Worthington and Deer District are forward-going and have right style to sit behind what looks like real pace. If looking for an oddball price, Scooteranddabigman is interesting with Mor Spirit turning out to be successful with turf movers (and off track runners). John Langemeir quite clever and reaches for Morales with whom he clicks at 24%..

Most Likely: #5 Worthington 3-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #10 Deer District 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Scooteranddabigman 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Good Heart 7-2 6th

7th: Fern Creek, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Derby City P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Key of Life 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Twirled 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 The Great Maybe 4-1 5th

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Highway Robber 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Tres Soles 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Hit Show 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Rocket Can 7-2 2nd

9th: Ed Brown, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Mr Bob 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Top Recruit 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Powerful 5-2 WON ($7.16)
Super Add: #4 Frosted Departure 3-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

5: 7-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 3 (A), 4 (B), – (C)
8: 2-3 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 5-10 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
7: 3 (A), 4 (B), – (C)
8: 2-3-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

10th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Hoosier Philly 1-1 WON ($2.96)
Best Value: #3 American Rockette 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Knockyoursocksoff 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Defining Purpose 15-1