BELMONT PARK ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Engrave 1-1
Best Value: #2 Repo Rocks 6-1
Next Best: #3 Rational Choice 9-2
Exotics Use: #1e Pletcher entry 5-2

X-C LEG A ~ BELMONT 7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Amortization 7-2
Next Best: #10 Kerry Girl 9-2
Best Value: #11 Lilly Simone 15-1
Exotics Use: #12 Batyah 10-1

X-C LEG B ~ WOODBINE 7th: Singspiel (G3), 3+, 10f-T (P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Skywire 7-2
Next Best: #7 Tiz a Slam 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Nakamura 5-2
Super Add: #4 Standard Deviation 8-1

X-C LEG C ~ MONMOUTH 10th: S/HCP, 3+, 11f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Well-matched group for this starter series finale, further complicated by stretch out to 11f..

Best Value: #6 Atta Kid 10-1
Next Best: #8 Bold Daddy 7-2
Exotics Use: #12 Panama Papers 20-1
Super Add: #1 Duc de Calais 6-1

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Flashpackinbarbie 7-5
Best Value: #6 Firenze Freedom 6-1
Next Best: #4 Shesasuperfreak 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Wailin Josie 10-1

X-C LEG D ~ BELMONT 9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Maxwell Esquire 3-1
Best Value: #8 Fast Getaway 6-1
Next Best: #11 Bustin Shout 9-2
Exotics Use: #4 Opt 8-1

X-C LEG E ~ WOODBINE 9th: Woodbine Mile (G1), 3+m 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

After slow summer. Casse barn winning races again and top pair of March/Arch and War/Will the horses to beat from off and on the paces..

Most Likely: #1 March to the Arch 5-2
Best Value: #7 Value Proposition 6-1
Next Best: #8 War of Will 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Shirl’s Speight 8-1

X-C P5 Grid:

BEL 7: – (A), – (B), – (C)
WO 7: – (A), – (B), – (C)
MTH 10: – (A), – (B), – (C)
BEL 9: – (A), – (B), – (C)
WO 9: – (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A’s:

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-Inner

Most Likely: #2 Freudian Analyst 7-2
Best Value: #7 Mommie’s Jewel 5-1
Next Best: #4 Fast Gordon 9-2
Exotics Use: #10 Disciplinarian 4-1

P5 Grid:

6: – (A), – (B), – (C)
7: – (A), – (B), – (C)
8: – (A), – (B), – (C)
9: – (A), – (B), – (C)
10: – (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A’s:

P4 Grid:

7: – (A), – (B), – (C)
8: – (A), – (B), – (C)
9: – (A), – (B), – (C)
10: – (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A’s:

Good luck!
Steve

9/18: Belmont Park (6th-10th)

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BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Scarlett Sky 8-5
Best Value: #6 Lowcountry 8-1
Next Best: #3 Honorable 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Space Launch 9-2

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-Inner (P3, P3, DD)

Nice group for $40k..

Best Value: #9 Kilronan 12-1
Next Best: #8 Red Mule 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Big Wonder 3-1
Super Add: #12 Our Troubadour 5-1

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Prairie Fire 6-1
Next Best: #3 Good Credence 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Bustin Scones 12-1
Super Add: #4 Jewel of Arabia 5-2

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (DD)

Nice group, but Motion (#2 Mary’s France) deadly with first time North American types..

Most Likely: #2 Mary’s France 7-2
Best Value: #1 Windfall Profit 5-1
Next Best: #8 Lashara 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Una Luna 6-1

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #12 Nero’s Fiddle 6-1
Next Best: #10 Bricco 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Selfmade 5-1
Super Add: #5 Unlikely 30-1

P5 Grid:

6: 7 (A), – (B), 6 (C)
7: 2-8-9 (A), 3-7-12 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 10-12 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6 w/ 2-8-9 w/ 3-7 w/ 1-2-8 w/10-12)

P4 Grid:

7: 2-8-9 (A), 3-7-12 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 1-2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 10-12 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-8-9 w/ 2-4 w/ 1-2-8 w/10-12)

Good luck!
Steve

9/16: Canterbury Park ($41k P5 C/O)

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CANTERBURY PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

$41k carryover going in to a very tricky sequence..

Most Likely: #3 Creative Art 4-1
Best Value: #5 Libertarian 10-1
Next Best: #9 Mines Made Up 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Fender Bender 12-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Homeland Messa 5-2
Best Value: #2 Son of Poseidon 12-1
Next Best: #10 Pleasant Moon 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Campaign Spy 4-1

11th: MN-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Henry O’Henry 9-2
Next Best: #7 Gopher Gold 7-2
Exotics Use: #10 Lil’ Ninja 5-1
Super Add: #9 Public Safety 5-2

12th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Speeding Kid 9-2
Best Value: #3 Attain Success 5-1
Next Best: #5 Got Even Smarter 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Omen of Change

13th: MCLM/$5k, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #8 And He’s Loose 5-2
Best Value: #6 Nazdrave 8-1
Next Best: #10 Rockthepulpit 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Twirlincottoncandy 12-1

P5 Grid:

9: 3-5 (A), 6-9 (B), – (C)
10: 2-6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), – (B), 10 (C)
12: 7 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
13: 6-8-10 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup 1: 2x3x1x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (3-5 w/ 4-7-10 w/ 10 w/ 7 w/ 6-8-10)
Backup 2: 2x3x2x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-5 w/ 4-7-10 w/ 4-7 w/ 7 w/ 4-5)

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 10 (B), – (C)
12: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 6-8-10 (A), 4-5-7-9-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x8 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

INDIANA DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N2L, , 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Start of P5 with $51k carryover on a brutally challenging sequence starting with this juvy filly set that is nearly impossible to distinguish. Don’t think you’re going to be comfortable unless you’ve somehow covered all of them. Small budgets may have to rely on Calhoun’s New Boss who shows up from successful stalk and go Texas MDN trip and lands Parker for this assignment. Scat’s Choice went from Belterra MDN win to the Sorrento at DMR and wasn’t embarrassed. Brad Cox offers a pair (#5 Corey; #8 Coach) that both won on debut at IND with modest figs and either (or both) could easily improve enough to contend..

Most Likely: #2 New Boss 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Corey 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Scat’s Choice 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Coach 7-2 WON ($6.40)

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Kona Kai is 3-5, but she’s 4/0-3-0 with losses as favorite at 7-5 & 5-2 last pair..

Most Likely: #1 Kona Kai 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #6 Ghosting Kim 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Honorable Memory 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Turn to Me Sucree 15-1 7th

7th: CLM-IN, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Versatile Wing and Wheel one of several droppers and owns distinct edge. Lauer returns well-priced In a Fog (10-1) to restricted company. Consistent Love That Surprise another that gets class relief today. Portobello’s Hero figures to be on top early, a formula that aced similar 3 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #6 Wing and Wheel 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 In a Fog 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Love That Surprise 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Portobello’s Hero 9-2 WON ($4.60)

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f-T (DD, Pentafecta Hi-5)

Saturday Night even money for Cox after pair of Ellis placements at 5.5f-T and adds Lasix today (Cox 38%; $3.29 ROI). Jeff Bloom & Asmussen offer 2nd timer Mishpocha (“Mish-poochk-ah” ~ Yiddish for family) who need only improve a hair to best favorite. Misplaced NY-bred Lollygag adds Lasix after rough time visiting Saratoga. Helen Pitts firster Chakra likely needs one but has some sibling strength..

Best Value: #10 Mishpocha 9-2 4th
Most Likely: #4 Saturday Night 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Lollygag 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Chakra 10-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Little Bird Flash 15-1 7th

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

This is a treacherous, well-matched group. Indiana bred Timeless Rose cleared state bred ALW condition in career best effort for Granitz/Sanjur last and can surprise here v. open company..

Best Value: #8 Timeless Rose 8-1 WON ($20.40)
Next Best: #2 Liraz 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Spun Easy 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Tomorra 12-1 5th

P5 Grid:

5: 2 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-8 (C)
6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 7 (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $72 (4x3x2x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48; 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)

P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $24 (3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,8/8/4,5,11,12/8) Paid $54.20

KENTUCKY DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Mishko 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Hay Dakota 8-5 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Power End 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 By Your Side 5-2 2nd

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Momentous Miss 12-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #5 Train to Artemus 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Persevering 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Palm Court 4-1 8th

9th: TVG, F&M-3+, 12.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Theodora B. 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #3 Mrs. Sippy 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 English Affair 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Over Thinking 8-1 5th

10th: Untapable, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Red Ghost 3-1 7th
Next Best: #10 La Libertee 9-2 11th
Best Value: #9 Miss Maddy 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Emro 6-1 WON ($16.80)

11th: Music City, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Miss J McKay 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Kimari 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Finite 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Lighthouse 8-1 WON ($24.00)
Hi-5 Play: #6 She’s My Type 5-1 10th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 10-11 (A), 6-8-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

8: 4-5-7 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
9: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 8-10-11 (A), 1-5-6-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

9/12: Woodbine (7-13); KY Downs (7-11)

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WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Dani’s Victory 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ben Lomand 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Fast Negotiations 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Entry to Heaven 6-1 7th

8th: Bison City-R, 3yo-F, 8.5f (.20 P5, P3, )

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Katherine 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Truth Hurts 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Mizzen Beau 4-1 WON ($19.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Gun Society 8-1 4th

9th: Canadian (G2), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Cambier Parc 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Elizabeth Way 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Another Time 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Amalfi Coast 6-1 8th

10th (5:41p ET): 161st Queen’s Plate-R, 3yo, 10f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Curlin’s Voyage 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Merveilleux 10-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Clayton 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Halo Again 5-1 14th

11th: ALW/N$Y, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Fairywren 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Double Medal 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Short Summer Dress 4-1
Super Add: #5 Grey Seal 20-1 4th

12th: Ruling Angel, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Avie’s Samurai 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Boardroom 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Artie’s Princess 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #4 Our Secret Agent 6-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

8: 2 (A), 3 (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 3-10 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
10: 10 (A), 2 (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 1-6-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x3x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A’s: 1x2x1x3x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backups: 2x2x1x3x2 (12) + 1x2x1x3x2 (6) + 1x2x2x3x2 (12) = $30

13th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Mandatory Pay Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Guestimation 3-1 WON ($10.30)
Next Best: #4 Giant Critic 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #13 Tallestofthetall 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Secret Path 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Green Growth 10-1 8th

P4 Grid:

10: 10 (A), 2 (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 1-6-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 4-6-11-13 (A), 1-2-5-7-9-10 (B), 3-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x10 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 1x3x2x5 = 30 x .50 = $15
Backups: 2x3x2x5 (30) + 1x3x2x3 = (9) = $39

KENTUCKY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Ladies Turf (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Regal Glory 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Mitchell Road 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Secret Message 4-1 5th

8th: Ladies Sprint (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Cariba 8-1 11th
Next Best: #8 Got Stormy 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Into Mystic 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Winning Envelope 20-1 2nd

9th: Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Fauci 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Outadore 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Bodenheimer 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 County Final 9-2 4th

10th: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Best Value: #6 Postulation 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Zulu Alpha 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Red Knight 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Hierarchy 10-1 6th

11th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Imprimis 8-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #4 Totally Boss 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Kanthaka 5-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Bound for Nowhere SCR
Hi-5 Play: #2 Stubbins 6-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-6 (A), 3-8 (B), – (C)
8: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-9 (A), 6 (B), 2-3-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-6 w/ 7-8-11 w/ 9-10 w/ 6-10 w/ 2-3-12)

P4 Grid:

8: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6-10 (A), 2-12 (B), – (C)
11: 4-6-9 (A), 2-3-12 (B), 7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (7-8-11 w/ 9-10 w/ 6-10 w/ 7-10)