Black-Eyed Susan Day turned out a lot like we discussed with Rick Hammerle on ATR as a nearly unrelenting parade of low prices prevailed. There was no shortage of exciting finishes, but there was a dearth of big mutuels other than the explosive 5th race allowance where eye-crossing $54 Righteous Place stayed on. After that, the series of stakes winners all made sense.

On to Preakness Day with the sobbering reminder that the obvious seem to largely demand respect at Old Hilltop no matter how original you want to make your thinking. Last year, only Skyring ($19.60 in the Murphy) paid a real price, while in 2011 Super Espresso ($24.20 in the DuPont) and Chinglish (Also $19.60 in the Murphy) charged the tote. In 2010, Taqarub ($28.60 in MD Sprint) and Strike a Deal ($30.20) were chalkbusters while Social Queen ($20.20 in the Gallorette) and Everyday Heroes ($16.40 in the last Hirsch Jacobs) helped boost bankrolls the year Rachel won the feature.

Remember that .50 triples and P3′s are available here which can help you spread or press very effectively depending on your approach. Hope everyone did well Friday and that Preakness Day is safe for the horses and riders and profitable for you!

PIMLICO RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Benny Or Local 7-2
Best Value: #8 Wild Louis 8-1
Next Best: #6 Hakama 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Aussi Austin 3-1

2nd: Deputed Testimony S-H’cap, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Hello Lover (7-5) a real horse for Butch Reid but is returning for 7yo debut here off a 4+ month break. Isn’t going to have a big pace to close in to either. Likely winner still, but feels a little vulnerable. Add #3 Love Talk to your Superfecta plays..

Most Likely: #9 Hello Lover 7-5
Next Best: #7 No Brakes 5-1
Best Value: #4 Arctic Raven 30-1
Exotics Use: #5 Who Dat Boy 7-2

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Note that PIM has a thick, lush turf course and those that haven’t tried grass or are less than fit can struggle over it and/or tire. I bring it up because Brooklyn Cowboy tries lawn first time. His dam No Better Time had sibling (MD-bred stalwart Gala Spinaway) that was quite OK on weeds..

Best Value: #12 Hesagoldmine 15-1
Next Best: #5 Bowman’s Boy 9-2
Exotics Use: #8 Brooklyn Cowboy 7-2
Super Add: #7 Relentless Move 4-1

4th: Rollicking, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sweet Emma Rose 7-5
Next Best: #4 No Nay Never 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Take Time to Pray 8-1
Super Add: #5 Silvertonguedtommy 8-1

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Joy 6-1
Best Value: #6 Monster Sleeping 12-1
Next Best: #9 Nokaze 4-1
Exotics Use: #11 Waquoit’s Dance 6-1

6th: 4th Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Zee Bros cuts back to three quarters from 1m Derby Trial, but note best run came at seven eighths. Is he a ‘tweener’? This has chaos written all over it..

Best Value: #7 City of Westin 6-1
Next Best: #2 Zee Bros 2-1
Exotics Use: #9 Undrafted 3-1
Super Add: #3 Bobcat Jim 6-1

7th: 48th James Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Fun betting affair and a source of plus mutuels the last 2 years as cited above. Notacatbutallama doesn’t scare. Wry Me (20-1) is a full to Notassharpasyouthink who was quite OK on the grass..

Most Likely: #10 Redwood Kitten 5-1
Best Value: #3 Wry Me 20-1
Next Best: #6 Shining Copper 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 Heat Press 6-1
Super Add: #1 Notacatbutallama 9-5

8th: Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

P5 is a mandatory payout for Preakness Day..

Most Likely: #7 Brushed by a Star 2-1
Next Best: #6 Summer Applause 9-5
Best Value: #4 Daydreamin Gracie 15-1
Exotics Use: #5 Sea Island 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 6-7-9-11
6: 2-7-9
7: 1-2-3-4-6-10
8: 6-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

9th: 62nd Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Samitar 5-2
Best Value: #10 Appealing Cat 10-1
Next Best: #3 Pianist 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Hard Not to Like 10-1

10th: 27th Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

This will be a war with waves of speed, stalkers and closers..

Most Likely: #4 Hardened Wildcat 4-1
Best Value: #6 Poseidon’s Warrior 10-1
Next Best: #7 Candyman E 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Laurie’s Rocket 6-1

11th: 112th Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Nice edition of this..

Best Value: #4 Imagining 5-1
Next Best: #2 Optimizer 7-2
Exotics Use: #9 Swift Warrior 4-1
Super Add: #12 Two Months Rent 15-1

12th: 138th Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super Hi-5)

Hard to believe one would feel more nervous about this spot than the chaotic potential offered in the Derby, but that’s the way it’s been for me this week looking forward to Orb’s follow up to Kentucky. Phipps-Janney colt continues to improve and wins this unless something unforeseen occurs or someone utterly freaks. The 2 horses here about whom we don’t have full disclosure are Govenor Charlie and Departing, so they offer the stranger danger and upside. Mylute is one of the Derby also-rans that looks like he can still advance..

Most Likely: #1 Orb 1-1
Best Value: #8 Govenor Charlie 12-1
Next Best: #4 Departing 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Mylute 5-1
Hi-5 Play: #9 Itsmyluckyday 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-4-10
10: 4-6-7
11: 1-2-4-7-9-12
12: 1

4x3x6x1 = $72 ($36 for .50)

<$100 P5 Play:

8: 6-7
9: 1-3-4-10
10: 4-6-7
11: 1-2-4-5-7-9-12-13
12: 1

2x4x3x8x1 = 192 x .50 = $96

13th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Code West 4-5
Best Value: #1 Bluegrass Springs 10-1
Next Best: #10 Crown Polis 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Forest Jingles 15-1
Hi-5 Play: #12 Dinos Romance 8-1

Good luck!
Steve

Day 1 of the Preakness Weekend and seemingly a wide open card..

PIMLICO RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

NOTE: .50 TRIS, .50 P3/P4′s. P5 IS ‘JACKPOT’ STYLE..

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #8 Fly’n Bayou 9-2 4th
Next Best: #12 Readyshakego 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #14 Beatnick 9-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Locche 8-1 10th

6th: 20th Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Not swallowing 7-5 Dance to Bristol whole off monster effort at Charles Town. Any previous typical effort from her here makes her just one of 4 that can win..

Best Value: #6 Strike the Moon 4-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Dance to Bristol 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Funnys Approval 9-2 6th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Yikes.. Another 14 horse field and about 7.5 of them look capable. Lock, load and pray your inclusion gets his trip..

Most Likely: #7 Livingston Street 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Paris Is Art 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Followmyfootsteps 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Zarroc 15-1 10th

8th: 28th Miss Preakness, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3)

Please be aware that this P5 is a jackpot style requiring a single unique winner..

Many here want to be up on the lead and I think you need to find a stalker type that can pick up fading pacesetters. George Weaver’s Lighthouse Bay (8-1) fits the bill nicely..

Best Value: #9 Lighthouse Bay 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Tread 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 I’m Mom’s Favorite 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #10 Jewel of a Cat 12-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 5-8-12-14
6: 2-5-6
7: 1-4-7-8
8: 2-8-9

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

9th: 8th Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3)

Night Officer a SCR having won in New York Thursday. Key to making money here is getting Super Chunky (15-1), Ken’s Cape 12-1) and/or Spring to the Sky (10-1) into the mix with the big favorites..

Most Likely: #2 Bridgetown 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Super Chunky 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ben’s Cat 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Ken’s Cape 12-1 6th

10th: 89th Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P3)

SCR #1 Manuka Honey & #5 Walkwithapurpose. Question here is whether you believe Emollient is a dirt horse or not. After that, you can reach around and tinker with a price or two including Nicks’ Maracuya who could be dangerous if left to her own devices up front. On that topic, Fiftyshadesofhay gets blinkers, adds Rosario and exits a bullet work at CD. Looms a stalk and go presence..

Most Likely: #3 Fiftyshadesofhay 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #7 Emollient 8-5 6th
Best Value: #6 Maracuya 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Marathon Lady 12-1 2nd

11th: 14th Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3)

Looks like this goes straight through the Giant’s Causeway at KEE where Sweet Cassiopeia, Spun Cap, Sounds of the City and Sensible Lady finished 1-4 within 2+ lengths of each other. Sensible Lady won this a year ago and while she hasn’t run back to that effort since, it’s notable that she is 2/2 over this course

Best Value: #3 Sensible Lady 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #13 Sweet Cassiopeia 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Spun Cap 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Sounds of the City 6-1 5th

12th: 43rd Pimlico Special (G3), 3+, 9.5f (Special-Preakness Double, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Last Gunfighter 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Brimstone Island 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Eighttodasttocatch 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Concealed Identity 15-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 2-6-7-8
10: 3-6-7-9
11: 3-4-7-10-11-12-13
12: 7

4x4x7x1 = 112 x .50 = $56

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/3/3/1,7) Paid $47.10

13th: 41st Hilltop, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

The sophomore filly turf division is terrific and this is a great example of the assemblies that have been dotting the calendar with them. There’s enough turf in Zenzara’s family to make her interesting at a price..

Best Value: #2 Zenzara 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Summer of Love 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Birdlover 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Premier Steps 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Miss Lucky Sevens 10-1 4th

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Cal-ALW/N!X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Warren’s Flasher 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 La Juliana 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Gia Is a Bella 6-1 4th

6th: MDN CLM ($20k), F&M-3+, 7.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Psalm Sixteen 6-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #10 Georgia’s Niece 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Frannie’sspirittoo 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Bas 5-2 3rd

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Upward Spiral 7-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Broken Sword 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Malibu Honey 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Llandudno 12-1 2nd

8th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Patty Wack 6-1 8th
Best Value: #10 Miss Swiss Rose LATE SCR
Next Best: #6 Yodelmesomemagic 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Tribalista 7-2 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-4
6: 1-3-9-10
7: 4-6-8
8: 3-6-8-10

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM ($20k), 3+, 7.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8Ten Tequilas 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Unusual Flash 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Real Deal Appeal 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Chico Suerte 4-1 WON ($10.00)

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Wow.. 10 line up here and entire group is separated by a couple lengths on best. Four Better is first off claim for Dorf and Romantic Wish returns to level of last win..

Most Likely: #6 Four Better 5-2 5th
Next Best: #10 Romantic Wish 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Prettypriceygirl 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Van Brit 6-1 10th

6th: MDN CLM ($20k), 3+, 7.5f (P4, P3, DD)

2nd division of 4th race with lots of cross-pollination..

Most Likely: #6 Caveman Keno 3-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Just Irish 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Patriotic Lion 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Spectacular Journey 6-1 2nd

7th: 5th Round Table, 4+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dhaamer 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Diamondsdiplomat 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Lime Rickey 2-1 2nd

8th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (DD)

Best Value: #8 Valkyrie Missle 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Gallant Gent 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Don Perico 3-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Slycy 5-1 8th

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Burns Turn 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Blake’s Magic 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Tizmetizyou 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Camryn Kate 7-2 6th
Super Add: #12 J K’s Mischief 20-1 12th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-8
5: 6-10
6: 2-4-6
7: 5
8: 4-8
9: 5-8-9

2x2x3x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-6-7
7: 5
8: 1-3-4-6-7-8
9: 5-7-8-9

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro, some serious pedigrees on view here including High Five Again (full to Awesome Feather); Encode (half to Algorithims, Justin Phillip and Successful Mission); Howie’s Tiz (full to Rush Now)..

Most Likely: #2 Town Extension 7-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Encode 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Howie’s Tiz 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Bad Hombre 3-1 WON ($8.50)

7th: NY-MDN CLM ($50k), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Joe Alan 7-2 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #6 Joe Mooch 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Gold Buffalo 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Thingamajigger 12-1 5th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Very good group of state breds here with at least 5 having opportunity. Can Quiet Power be counted on to run another ‘A’ race? He’s frequently reacted to big tries and has not been able to impact NY-ALW company previously..

Most Likely: #4 Irish Moon 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Quiet Power 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Greeley’s Law 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Amberjack 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #3 Ego Friendly 8-1 5th

<$5 DIME SUPER PLAY: 2-4 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-3-4-9 with 1-2-3-4-9 (2x2x3x4 = 48 x .10 = $4.80)

9th: 59th Peter Pan (G2), 9f (DD)

Day’s most interesting race pits 11 sophs in audition for Belmont Stakes 4 weeks hence. A lot of ways to go here with any number of questions needing to be answered: How overbet will Incognito (5-1) & Freedom Child (12-1) be off trouble lines in respective last starts? Can Bay Shore winner Declan’s Warrior (4-1) stretch out the additional quarter mile? Is NY bred Go Get the Basil (20-1) just a $50k claimer or is nose beat 2 back a race he can reproduce today? Has My Name Is Michael (10-1) wanted the main track all along? How much improvement can we expect from 6/4-2-0 private purchase Battier (8-1) SCRATCHED with the move to Pletcher? Is Andy Serling wearing a new Boss suit?

Most Likely: #10 Incognito 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Declan’s Warrior Late SCRATCH (2:00pm)
Best Value: #9 Go Get the Basil 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Freedom Child 12-1 WON ($9.20)

10th: MDN CLM ($25k), 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #15 Derby Watch 7-2 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #14 Economic Forecast 2-1 5th
Best Value: #16 Dapper Draper Late SCRATCH (2:00pm)
Exotics Use: #6 Freight 4-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-6
8: 2-4
9: 1-2-4-5-7-9-10
10: 14-15

3x2x7x2 = 84 x .50 = $42

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 1st Came Home, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Nothing to bet here, but plenty to see. Let Em Shine and Treasury Bill are both headed to bigger things..

Most Likely: #1 Let Em Shine 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #3 Tresury Bill 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Belvin 7-2 4th

6th: 45th Senorita (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sophomore filly turf division terrific on both coasts. Can’t get past Scarlet Strike unfortunately though the next 4-5 are well within striking distance. Interesting that import Charlie Em lures Gomez..

Most Likely: #8 Scarlet Strike 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Lilbourne Eliza 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Disko Dasko 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Charlie Em 6-1 WON ($21.40)

7th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Some pedigrees of note here with debuting Simon Says Go a half to Win Willy and overdue Syndicated a half to Ultimate Eagle..

Most Likely: #6 A Red Tie Day 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Spectrus 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Stormin Late 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Major Affair 3-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-T (DD)

Good set..

Most Likely: #7 Sirocco Strike 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 No Silent 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #1 Royal F J 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Innocent Man 4-1 6th

9th: MDN CLM ($20k), 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Billy Win 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #13 The Gatekeeper 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Dark Timbers 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #15 Majestic Desert 15-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-7-8
7: 2-4-6-7
8: 1-2-7
9: 2-3-13

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72