8/17: Saratoga (Day 24; Union Avenue)

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By kasept | Filed in 2017 | No comments yet.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Friend of Liberty claimed out of Sunday’s 1st and re-entered by new connex as entries for today had not yet closed! Easy Way Out & She’s Stunning SCR’d out of spots for here..

Best Value: #7 She’s Stunning Late SCR
Next Best: #1 Friend of Liberty 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Honor Way 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Super Add: #6 Easy Way Out 2-1 5th

2nd: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Saratoga Colonel 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Heat Check 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Fleet Admiral 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Looking At U Kid 8-1 5th

3rd: OC/N2S, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Have struggled with these all meet..

Best Value: #5 Sail Ahoy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Securitiz 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Thebigfundamental 9-5 WON ($5.20)

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Mojo’s Queen 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #9 Dreamy Margarita 5-2 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Veil Dance 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Laura’s Patriot 8-1 9th

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Looking Ready 3-1 WON ($5.30)
Next Best: #7 Smokin Platinum Late SCR
Best Value: #3 Paynter’s Prize 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Dark Ops 9-2 3rd

P5 Grid:

1: 1-57 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
2: 5-8 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-10 (C)
3: 3-4-5 (A), – (B), 1-2-6 (C)
4: 2 (A), – (B), 5-6-8-9-10 (C)
5: 17/SCR (A), 3-10 (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

2: 5-8 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-10 (C)
3: 1-3-4-5 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
4: 2 (A), – (B), 5-6-8-9-10 (C)
5: 17/SCR (A), 3-10 (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x4x1x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)

6th: ALW/N1X, +, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Beasley 9-5 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #5 Classic Cotton 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Grumpelstiltskin 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Magnifier 5-1 5th

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Summer Luck 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Initiate 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Rimanisempreforte 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Taperge 2-1 WON ($5.50)

8th: Union Avenue-NY, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

SCR of Hot City Girl opens this up completely..

Most Likely: #5 Clipthecouponannie 6-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Picco Uno 8-1 WON ($9.70)
Next Best: #1 Quezon 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Court Dancer 5-1 8th

9th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #11 Carrera Cat Late SCR (11:30a)
Best Value: #1 Held Accountable 8-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #2 Scatback 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Straw Hat 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Pound Note 4-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

5: 1-7 (A), 3-10 (B), 1-6-8 (C)
6: 1 (A), – (B), 2-4-5 (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
8: 5-9 (A), 1 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
9: 1-2-11/SCR (A), – (B), 6-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 PICK FIVE (1/1/1/9/1) Paid $544.00

P4 Grid:

6: 1-5 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
8: 5-9 (A), 1 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
9: 1-2-11/SCR (A), – (B), 6-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (1/1/9/1) Paid $194.75

8/16: Saratoga (Day 23; Bolton Landing)

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By kasept | Filed in 2017 | No comments yet.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N2L, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Kremlin 4-1
Best Value: #8 Bishop’s Castle 8-1
Next Best: #6 Mutasaaway 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Hooded 20-1

2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

There’s a number of nice horses here that have simply had the misfortune of running into tough customers as they look to graduate..

Most Likely: #1 Speith 9-5
Best Value: #4 Powerful Ally 9-2
Next Best: #7 D’ambrosio 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Alpha Team 6-1

3rd: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 11f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Fire Away 2-1
Next Best: #1 Holiday Star 8-5
Best Value: #4 Mark My Style 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Muqtaser 5-2

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

#1a Easy Way Out will be a SCR to run in Thursday’s 1st..

Most Likely: #1 Lady Devil 9-5
Next Best: #3 Lady Constance 7-5
Exotics Use: #6 Jump for Joy 5-1
Super Add: #5 B Three 15-1

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Stolen Pistol 3-1
Most Likely: #4 My Mr. Wonderful 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Cross Multiply 15-1
Super Add: #2 Sicilia Sal 12-1

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Saratoga Wildcat 5-2
Best Value: #4 Paden 8-1
Next Best: #1a (POE) Power Nap 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Old Upstart 5-1

P5 Grid:

2: 1-4-7 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
3: 3 (A), 1 (B), 4-5 (C)
4: 1-3 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
5: 4-5 (A), 7 (B), 2-6-8-10 (C)
6: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

3: 1-3 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
4: 1-3 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
5: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), 2-6-8-10 (C)
6: 4-7 (A), 1-2-6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Claiborne entry 4-5
Next Best: #7 Zoot Suit 4-1
Best Value: #2 Fear 15-1
Exotics Use: #4 Amelia’s Wild Ride 6-1

8th: NY-CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 No Texting 9-2
Next Best: #3 Mobridge 9-5
Exotics Use: #6 Damage Control 2-1
Super Add: #7 Irish Prayer 6-1

9th: Bolton Landing, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (DD)

This is a terrific race with 2 Wards and 2 Pletchers as well as invaders from WO (Casse) & LRL (capable Susan Cooney). No easy eliminations to the point that I can’t even put the Wesleys in the super on paper!

Most Likely: #6 Sugar Queen 4-1
Best Value: #5 March X Press 8-1
Next Best: #3 Sly Beauty 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Buy Sell Hold 5-1

10th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #3 Irst 5-2
Best Value: #6 Schott 6-1
Next Best: #5 Britain 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Presidential Bird 6-1

P6 Grid:

6: 1-4-7 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 1 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
8: 2-3 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), 1-2-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), – (B), 2-4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x6x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 1 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-4-5-6 (C)
8: 2-3-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), 1-2-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), – (B), 2-4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x4x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve

Tags:

8/14: Saratoga (Day 22; Saratoga Dew)

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By kasept | Filed in 2017 | No comments yet.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Champagne Ruby 8-5 DH-4th
Next Best: #6 Non Finisce Mai 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #4 Everything Magic 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Hot Yankee 4-1 6th

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Vigor 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #6 Schema 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Boom Boom Boom 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Hollywood Royal 7-2 3rd

3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Baby Bear’s Soup 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Cinderella El Chrome 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Holding Aces 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Happy Farm 7-2 WON ($11.00)

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Snapper Sinclair 10-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #6 Gidu 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Scatjack 8-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Pocket Book 9-5 6th

5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Novique 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Splash of Sass 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Scatnap 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Okbyecya 10-1 6th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-6 (A), – (B), 3-4-5 (C)
2: 2-6 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
3: 5 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 1-6 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)
5: 5-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

2: 2-6 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
3: 2-5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
4: 1-6 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)
5: 5-6-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-2-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Win With Pride 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 New Jersey John 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Any Questions 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Keepingitquiet 9-2 8th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Battlement 9-5 4th
Best Value: #7 Orecciette 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Annathela 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Tizanillusion 5-2 2nd

8th: Saratoga Dew-NY, F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Stake honors the Charlie Engel-owned, Gary Sciacca-trained filly who was the first New York bred Eclipse winner. Half sisters Jc’s Shooting Star and Jcs American Dream line up against each other again..

Most Likely: #1 Jcs Shooting Star 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Literata 2-1 WON ($8.30)
Best Value: #3 Super Allison 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Jcs American Dream 3-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT

Best Value: #3 Unexplained 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Musical America 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Snag 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Eucalyptus 12-1 8th

P5 Grid:

5: 5 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-6 (C)
6: 4-5-10 (A), – (B), 1-6-7 (C)
7: 2-4-7 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 1-4 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 1-3 (A), 10 (B), 4-5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x2x3 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A’s: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 4-5-10 (A), – (B), 1-6-7 (C)
7: 2-4-7 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 1-4 (A), 2-3 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 1-3 (A), 4-10 (B), 5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Tags:

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Gobi 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Makealittlelove 3-1 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Friend of Liberty 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #4 Isotope 8-1 5th

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF/7f (P4, P3, DD)

Group has look of quality. Like Saturday’s 6th (won by Casse with $20 Machtree), not a lot to go on except pedigree, works, trainer/sire stats..

Most Likely: #9 Miss Mo Mentum 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 City Day 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Critique 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Cash Out 8-1 5th

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Maddizaskar 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 She’s a True Beauty 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 C Islandsurprise 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Flick of an Eye 9-2 2nd

4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF/9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2b Decorated Soldier 3-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Arbitrator 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Halloween Horror 10-1 3rd

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 My Boy Tate 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #3 Dwizard 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Quai Voltaire 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Devilry 3-1 6th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-3 (A), 6 (B), 4-5 (C)
2: 8-9 (A), – (B), 1-3 (C)
3: 1-3 (A), 6 (B), – (C)
4: 2-10 (A), 4-7-9 (B), – (C)
5: 3-7 (A), – (B), 1-4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x5x2 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

2: 8-9 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-5-7 (C)
3: 1-3-6 (A), – (B), 2-4-5 (C)
4: 2-10 (A), 4-7-9 (B), – (C)
5: 3-7 (A), – (B), 1-4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

6th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF/5.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Zippity Zoom 2nd
Next Best: #5 Victorias Fire WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Head Shrinker 3rd

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Galileo’s Song 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Pas de Soucis 9-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Now Power 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Earring 3-1 3rd

8th: SAR Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Mo Diddley 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Barry Lee 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Hollywood Star 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Copper Bullet 5-2 WON ($9.10)

9th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (SAR-EMD X-Country DBL, DD)

Most Likely: #6 First Appeal 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Same Kinda Crazy 12-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Noble Freud 7-5 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #3 Itsinthestars 6-1 2nd

10th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF/9f

Most Likely: #12 Itsabigboy WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #13 Holland Road 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Strong Side 2nd
Super Add: #9 Pawn It Back 7th

P5 Grid:

6: 3-5 (A), 9 (B), 6-8 (C)
7: 1-2 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 2-4 (A), – (B), 3-9 (C)
9: 6-8 (A), 3-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3-12-13 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 2-4 (A), 3-8-9 (B), 6 (C)
9: 6-8 (A), 3-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3-12-13 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x4x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$.50 Pick 4 (2,6/9/4,9,11/1,6,7,8,10,11,12) $39.87

EMERALD DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY PICK 4

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Emerald Distaff H., F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Plastered 3-1 4TH
Best Value: #4 Victress 6-1
Next Best: #3 Citizen Kitty 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Chronologic’sghost 10-1

8th: Longacres Mile (G3), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Chief of Staff 6-1
Next Best: #3 Gold Rush Dancer 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Mach One Rules 7-2 2ND
Super Add: #2 Point Piper 9-2

P4 Grid:

SAR 9: 6-8 (A), 3-9 (B), – (C)
SAR 10: 3-12-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
EMD 7: 4-9 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-6-7 (C)
EMD 8: 3-9-10 (A), – (B), 2-6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$.50 Pick 4 (4,9,11/1,6,7,8,10,11,12/3/3) $61.45

8/12: Saratoga ($56k C/O); Arlington (7th-12th)

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SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Treacherous opener featuring host of hard knocking claimers and lurking presence of ‘first off claim’ Sammy Wonder Stone from devious Players Group/Arriaga team that burst on Spa scene last summer with 3 wins in 13 days..

Most Likely: #4 Will Did It 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Scarly Charley 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Sammy Wonder Stone 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Nominal Dollars 8-1 5th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Typically nice group of SAR 2yo’s with sons out of Tar Heel Mom (Base Command by Tiznow), Lear’s Princess (Indimaaj by Tapit) and Delightful Mary (Get the Facts by Tapit) as well as Sweet Loretta full brother Airtouch..

Best Value: #3 Get the Facts 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Airtouch 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Base Command 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Fixedincome Larry 4-1 4th

3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-I (P3, DD)

Linda Rice 28% W’s (65% ITM!) for $2.53 ROI when stretching out runners first off the claim as she does with Pioneer Spirit (5-1)..

Best Value: #3 Pioneer Spirit 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #2 Six Schillings 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Dr. Edgar 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Space Mountain 4-1 2nd

4th: 101st ADK (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro, a better than average Adirondack with 4 obvious major players. Sly Roxy the lone Casse barn winner thus far upstate and looks prominent today with gears to stalk pace of Pletcher’s favored Pure Silver..

Most Likely: #3 Sly Roxy 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Southampton Way 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Pure Silver 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Limited View 4-1 6th

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Maniacally competitive $25k claiming group with 3-1 fave Azar being given away. Overnight rain may help even up the turf courses which were getting awfully quick the last week or so..

Best Value: #10 Italian Charm 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Azar 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Made in Detroit 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Husband’s Folly 30-1 12th

P5 Grid:

1: 4-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-3-6 (C)
2: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-9 (C)
3: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-9 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 5 (C)
5: 4-10 (A), 9 (B), 1-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

2: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-9 (C)
3: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-9 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 5 (C)
5: 4-9-10 (A), 1-8-12 (B), 6-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$56k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #8 Sportswear 5-2 9th
Best Value: #9 Have At It 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Channel Cat 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Lone Sentry 8-1 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (NYRA Bets P5, P3, DD)

Murky outlook with 6 of the 9 (1-2-4-5-7-9) having pedigree or works that invite inclusion on plays. Brown (2) & Pletcher (9) firsters have obvious appeal while Asmussen (1) & Breen (5) have fat stats with their 2nd time starters. Amoss (4) colt has strong work towards this spot and Lukas/Zayat (7) was $575k buy that has shown a.m. zip..

Most Likely: #2 Coal Truth 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Lone Sailor 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Wyatt’s Town 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Coltandmississippi 2-1 WON ($8.70)

8th: Opt CLM/C, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Off Limits 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #5 Puca 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Something Else 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Enchanteresse 6-1 7th

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Pretty fascinating group which marks return of Gift Box (SCR). Note Terri Pompey (#10 Icatiro) popping up like a jack-in-the-box and winning Friday at Saratoga .

Most Likely: #5 Lewys Vaporizer 6-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #9 Cerro 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Spartiatis Late SCR
Super Add: #10 Icatiro 15-1 3rd

10th: 33rd Fourstardave (G1), 3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Win in G1 Fourstardave by Generazio’s Disco Partner would guarantee him chance at stud, furthering legacy of his underrated sire Disco Rico. I think he’s the most likely winner, but want to try steadily improving and well-handled Ballagh Rocks at what will be a nice number and the mile trip may be what suits him best. Same can be said of Time Test who won on the mile straight at Newmarket in the Grp 2 Joel..

Best Value: #1 Ballagh Rocks 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Disco Partner 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Time Test 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #7 World Approval 9-2 WON ($12.60)

11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #7 The Pooch 10-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #8 Dab 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Danny’s Rush Surface SCR

P6 Grid:

6: 8 (A), 9 (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 2 (A), – (B), 1-4-9 (C)
8: 8 (A), 5 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), – (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-7 (C)
11: 6-7-8 (A), – (B), 11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x2x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 1x1x1x2x2x3 = 12 x $2 = $24

P5 Grid:

7: 2 (A), – (B), 1-4-9 (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 2-3-4 (B), – (C)
9: 5-9 (A), – (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), – (B), 2-5-7 (C)
11: 6-7-8 (A), 11-12 (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 5-8 (A), 2-3-4 (B), – (C)
9: 5-9 (A), – (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), – (B), 2-5-7 (C)
11: 6-7-8 (A), 11-12 (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$.50 Pick 4 (8-5-7-All) Paid $22.10 x 3 = $66.30 (A-A-C-A)

ARLINGTON

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 41st Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Oscar Performance 8-5 WON ($5.00
)

Best Value: #1 Afandem 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Permian 9-5 6th

8th: 3rd Bruce D., 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Smoke ‘n’ Gloat 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Memory Bank 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Uncontested 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Yorkton 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Gain Ground 12-1 6th

9th: 6th American St. Leger (G3), 3+, 13.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Keystoneforvictory 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Postulation 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #8 Bullards Alley 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Taghleeb 2-1 2nd

10th: 28th Beverly D. (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dona Bruja 7-2 DH-2nd
Best Value: #5 Grand Jete 6-1 DH-2nd
Next Best: #1 Dacita 4-1 WON ($15.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Prado’s Sweet Ride 30-1 10th

11th: 35th Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T (Hi-5, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Deauville 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Kasaqui 10-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Beach Patrol 5-1 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Oscar Nominated 15-1 8th

12th: 54th Pucker Up (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T

Best Value: #5 Dontmesswithjoanne 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Lipstick City 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Lovely Bernadette 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sensitive 12-1 7th

P5 Grid:

8: 4-8-9 (A), 6-7 (B), – (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-6 (C)
10: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 2-7-9 (C)
11: 5 (A), – (B), 2-8-10 (C)
12: 3-5-7 (A), – (B), 6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x3x1x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 3x2x3x1x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

P4 Grid:

9: 1-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-6 (C)
10: 1-4-5 (A), 2-7-9 (B), – (C)
11: 5 (A), – (B), 2-8-10 (C)
12: 3-5-6-7-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x1x5 = 30 x .50 = $15

Festival P3 Grid:

10: 1-4-5 (A), 2-7-9 (B), – (C)
11: 5 (A), 8 (B), 2-10 (C)
12: 3-5-6-7-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A’s: 3x1x5 = $15 ($7.50 for .50)