AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Freedomoftherpress 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Dame of Malta 6-1 11th
Best Value: #4 White Frost 8-1 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Evvie Jets 9-2 3rd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-Outer (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Traffic Pattern 9-5 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #2 K.K. Ichikawa 6-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Kid Chocolate 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Hard Count 6-1 7th

AQUEDUCT 8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Saratoga Pal 8-5 4th
Best Value: #3 Wow Brown 5-1 WON ($9.00)
Next Best: #5 Jemography 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Riken 6-1 6th

AQUEDUCT 9th: Red Smith (G3), 3+, 11f-T (DD)

Best Value: #8 Ziyad 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sadler’s Joy 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Aquaphobia 6-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Red Knight 5-2 2nd

CHURCHILL 7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 It’s Cold in Dehere 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Just Fly 7-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Heaven Escape 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Kiffle 5-2 4th

AQUEDUCT 10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Outer

Best Value: #7 Open Lengths 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Michael’s Bad Boy 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Bricco 5-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Empire Express 8-1 WON ($15.20)

P5 Grid:

6: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-5-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 9-10 (B), – (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x1x4x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

7: 9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-5-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 9-10 (B), – (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x4x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

CHURCHILL 9th: Chilukki (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Grand Cru Classe 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Whoa Nellie 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Finite 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Sanenus 20-1 2nd

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

AQU 8: 7 (A), – (B), 3-5-8 (C)
AQU 9: 4-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
CD 7: 3-6-8 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)
AQU 10: 7-8 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
CD 9: 2-3-4-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x5x4x5 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A’s: 1x2x3x2x5 = 60 x .50 = $30

BELMONT PARK ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Engrave 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Repo Rocks Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Rational Choice 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1a Likeable 5-2 WON ($6.60)

X-C LEG A ~ BELMONT 7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Amortization 7-2 4th
Next Best: #10 Kerry Girl 9-2 6th
Best Value: #12 Batyah 10-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Island Treasure 6-1 10th

X-C LEG B ~ WOODBINE 7th: Singspiel (G3), 3+, 10f-T (P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Skywire 7-2 8th
Next Best: #7 Tiz a Slam 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Nakamura 5-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Standard Deviation 8-1 6th

X-C LEG C ~ MONMOUTH 10th: S/HCP, 3+, 11f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Well-matched group for this starter series finale, further complicated by stretch out to 11f..

Best Value: #6 Atta Kid 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Bold Daddy 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Panama Papers 20-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Duc de Calais 6-1 4th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Flashpackinbarbie Late SCR
Best Value: #6 Firenze Freedom 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Shesasuperfreak 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Wailin Josie 10-1 5th

X-C LEG D ~ BELMONT 9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Maxwell Esquire 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #8 Fast Getaway Late SCR
Next Best: #11 Bustin Shout 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Opt 8-1 3rd

X-C LEG E ~ WOODBINE 9th: Woodbine Mile (G1), 3+m 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

After slow summer. Casse barn winning races again and top pair of March/Arch and War/Will the horses to beat from off and on the paces..

Most Likely: #1 March to the Arch 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Value Proposition 6-1 8th
Next Best: #8 War of Will 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Shirl’s Speight 8-1 7th

X-C P5 Grid:

BEL 7: 6-10 (A), 9-12 (B), – (C)
WO 7: 5-7 (A), – (B), 4-9 (C)
MTH 10: 6-8 (A), 1-12 (B), – (C)
BEL 9: 7-8 (A), – (B), 4-11 (C)
WO 9: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x2x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: 2x2x2x2x3 ($24) + 2x2x2x2x3 ($24) = 448

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-Inner

Most Likely: #2 Freudian Analyst 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Fast Gordon 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Disciplinarian 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 You Said Hello 8-1 6th

P5 Grid:

6: 6 (A), – (B), 12/SCR-3 (C)
7: 6-10 (A), 9-12 (B), – (C)
8: 1 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 4-7-8-11 (A), 5-12 (B), – (C)
10: 2-4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x1x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 1x2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 3x2x1x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

P4 Grid:

7: 6-10 (A), 9-12 (B), – (C)
8: 1 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 4-7-8-11 (A), 5-12 (B), – (C)
10: 2-4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

9/18: Belmont Park (6th-10th)

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BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Scarlett Sky 8-5
Best Value: #6 Lowcountry 8-1
Next Best: #3 Honorable 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Space Launch 9-2

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-Inner (P3, P3, DD)

Nice group for $40k..

Best Value: #9 Kilronan 12-1
Next Best: #8 Red Mule 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Big Wonder 3-1
Super Add: #12 Our Troubadour 5-1

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Prairie Fire 6-1
Next Best: #3 Good Credence 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Bustin Scones 12-1
Super Add: #4 Jewel of Arabia 5-2

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (DD)

Nice group, but Motion (#2 Mary’s France) deadly with first time North American types..

Most Likely: #2 Mary’s France 7-2
Best Value: #1 Windfall Profit 5-1
Next Best: #8 Lashara 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Una Luna 6-1

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #12 Nero’s Fiddle 6-1
Next Best: #10 Bricco 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Selfmade 5-1
Super Add: #5 Unlikely 30-1

P5 Grid:

6: 7 (A), – (B), 6 (C)
7: 2-8-9 (A), 3-7-12 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 10-12 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6 w/ 2-8-9 w/ 3-7 w/ 1-2-8 w/10-12)

P4 Grid:

7: 2-8-9 (A), 3-7-12 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 1-2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 10-12 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-8-9 w/ 2-4 w/ 1-2-8 w/10-12)

Good luck!
Steve

9/16: Canterbury Park ($41k P5 C/O)

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CANTERBURY PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

$41k carryover going in to a very tricky sequence..

Most Likely: #3 Creative Art 4-1
Best Value: #5 Libertarian 10-1
Next Best: #9 Mines Made Up 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Fender Bender 12-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Homeland Messa 5-2
Best Value: #2 Son of Poseidon 12-1
Next Best: #10 Pleasant Moon 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Campaign Spy 4-1

11th: MN-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Henry O’Henry 9-2
Next Best: #7 Gopher Gold 7-2
Exotics Use: #10 Lil’ Ninja 5-1
Super Add: #9 Public Safety 5-2

12th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Speeding Kid 9-2
Best Value: #3 Attain Success 5-1
Next Best: #5 Got Even Smarter 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Omen of Change

13th: MCLM/$5k, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #8 And He’s Loose 5-2
Best Value: #6 Nazdrave 8-1
Next Best: #10 Rockthepulpit 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Twirlincottoncandy 12-1

P5 Grid:

9: 3-5 (A), 6-9 (B), – (C)
10: 2-6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), – (B), 10 (C)
12: 7 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
13: 6-8-10 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup 1: 2x3x1x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (3-5 w/ 4-7-10 w/ 10 w/ 7 w/ 6-8-10)
Backup 2: 2x3x2x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-5 w/ 4-7-10 w/ 4-7 w/ 7 w/ 4-5)

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 10 (B), – (C)
12: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 6-8-10 (A), 4-5-7-9-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x8 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

INDIANA DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N2L, , 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Start of P5 with $51k carryover on a brutally challenging sequence starting with this juvy filly set that is nearly impossible to distinguish. Don’t think you’re going to be comfortable unless you’ve somehow covered all of them. Small budgets may have to rely on Calhoun’s New Boss who shows up from successful stalk and go Texas MDN trip and lands Parker for this assignment. Scat’s Choice went from Belterra MDN win to the Sorrento at DMR and wasn’t embarrassed. Brad Cox offers a pair (#5 Corey; #8 Coach) that both won on debut at IND with modest figs and either (or both) could easily improve enough to contend..

Most Likely: #2 New Boss 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Corey 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Scat’s Choice 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Coach 7-2 WON ($6.40)

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Kona Kai is 3-5, but she’s 4/0-3-0 with losses as favorite at 7-5 & 5-2 last pair..

Most Likely: #1 Kona Kai 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #6 Ghosting Kim 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Honorable Memory 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Turn to Me Sucree 15-1 7th

7th: CLM-IN, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Versatile Wing and Wheel one of several droppers and owns distinct edge. Lauer returns well-priced In a Fog (10-1) to restricted company. Consistent Love That Surprise another that gets class relief today. Portobello’s Hero figures to be on top early, a formula that aced similar 3 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #6 Wing and Wheel 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 In a Fog 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Love That Surprise 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Portobello’s Hero 9-2 WON ($4.60)

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f-T (DD, Pentafecta Hi-5)

Saturday Night even money for Cox after pair of Ellis placements at 5.5f-T and adds Lasix today (Cox 38%; $3.29 ROI). Jeff Bloom & Asmussen offer 2nd timer Mishpocha (“Mish-poochk-ah” ~ Yiddish for family) who need only improve a hair to best favorite. Misplaced NY-bred Lollygag adds Lasix after rough time visiting Saratoga. Helen Pitts firster Chakra likely needs one but has some sibling strength..

Best Value: #10 Mishpocha 9-2 4th
Most Likely: #4 Saturday Night 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Lollygag 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Chakra 10-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Little Bird Flash 15-1 7th

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

This is a treacherous, well-matched group. Indiana bred Timeless Rose cleared state bred ALW condition in career best effort for Granitz/Sanjur last and can surprise here v. open company..

Best Value: #8 Timeless Rose 8-1 WON ($20.40)
Next Best: #2 Liraz 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Spun Easy 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Tomorra 12-1 5th

P5 Grid:

5: 2 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-8 (C)
6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 7 (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $72 (4x3x2x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48; 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)

P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $24 (3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,8/8/4,5,11,12/8) Paid $54.20

KENTUCKY DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Mishko 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Hay Dakota 8-5 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Power End 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 By Your Side 5-2 2nd

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Momentous Miss 12-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #5 Train to Artemus 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Persevering 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Palm Court 4-1 8th

9th: TVG, F&M-3+, 12.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Theodora B. 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #3 Mrs. Sippy 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 English Affair 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Over Thinking 8-1 5th

10th: Untapable, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Red Ghost 3-1 7th
Next Best: #10 La Libertee 9-2 11th
Best Value: #9 Miss Maddy 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Emro 6-1 WON ($16.80)

11th: Music City, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Miss J McKay 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Kimari 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Finite 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Lighthouse 8-1 WON ($24.00)
Hi-5 Play: #6 She’s My Type 5-1 10th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 10-11 (A), 6-8-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

8: 4-5-7 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
9: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 8-10-11 (A), 1-5-6-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18