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12/14: Gulfstream (5th-11th)

Saturday, December 14th, 2019

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: A>W/N1X, 3+, 1m-T/84′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Sayyaaf 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Conviction Trade 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 J Beresford Tipton 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Great Kahuna 10-1 7th

6th: Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-3+, 6f (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Problem here is that despite what looks like a good amount of pace, someone could gets loose.. but whom? Since I’m not playing the Rainbow 6, good spot to take a swing and Blazen Betsy’s last is competitive here. Crichton strong first time with new stock, off the break and reaching for Irad..

Best Value: #5 Blazen Betsy 20-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Bronx Beauty 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Stormy Embrace 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lady’s Island 5-2 WON ($8.60)

7th: My Charmer, F&M-3+, 1m-T/12′ (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Mitchell Road 9-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #8 Joy Nidera 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Na Pali Spirit 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Take These Chains 12-1 2nd

8th: Rampart (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Cairenn 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Baccarat Fashion 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Molto Bella 9-2 9th
Super Add: #4 Pink Sands 8-1 WON ($11.00)

9th: Ft. Lauderdale (G2), 3+, 9f-T/84′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Exulting 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Cross Border 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Admission Office 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Instilled Regard 8-1 WON ($8.60)

10th: Harlan’s Holiday (G3), 3+, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Realm 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Prince Lucky 2-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Exotics Use: #6 Bodexpress 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Red Crescent 6-1 4th

11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T/24′ (Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 My Point Exactly 10-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #8 King Orb 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Could Be 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Love Nest 20-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Dakota’s Dude 4-1 9th

P5 Grid:

7: 1(A), – (B), 4-8-9 (C)
8: 6-9-10 (A), – (B), 4-8-11 (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 3 (C)
10: 1-6-8 (A), 3-5(B), 4 (C)
11: 8-11(A), – (B), 1-2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 6-9-10 (A), – (B), 4-8-11 (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 3 (C)
10: 1-6-8 (A), 3-5(B), 4 (C)
11: 8-11(A), – (B), 1-2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

12/7: Aqueduct (Cigar Day; Empire 6 Force Out)

Saturday, December 7th, 2019

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Empire 6 force out starts here; $600k pool to open..

Tricky start to distribution sequence with several well connected, well bred and well meant types signed on including debuting $725k Or’effice(Md’O/Grace Hall) from Hennig/Courtland, Godolphin’s Tapit/Hystericalady chestnut homebred Tapage, Jane Lyon 2nd out homebred Moon Over Miami(Malibu Moon/Zinzay) from Mott and DATTT Farm’s Juulstone, an American Pharoah bay out of Hessonite sent by Shug..

Best Value: #2 Tapage 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Default Rate 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mischief Afoot 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Or’effice 4-1 4th

6th: 65th Go for Wand (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Invading Spiced Perfectionthe class of this group and seemingly the speed as well with no other truly pace-leaning types involved. On that topic, notable that Jose Ortiz gets aboard Needs Supervisionwho has tactical foot and likely gets forward placement out of last week’s LRL score. Understand those looking to single Spiced to assist Empire budget, but it may not be that simple given that she rarely ventures past 7f and gives 6-10#’s to rest of the field..

Most Likely: #3 Spiced Perfection 3-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Needs Supervision 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Another Broad 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Our Super Nova 6-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Brutal inclusion in already treacherous sequence with 8 first time starters facing 3 that have run. Duarte gets Jose Ortiz for Ego Man; Rosario rides Trash Talkerfor Magner. Of the FTS, ‘run early’ specialist Englehart has Villainous& Two Point Oh; Asmussen barn (Toby Sheets) sends cross-purpose bred Astronaut(Quality Road o/o turfy German mare whose N.A. runners have been barely ordinary); Jonathon Thomas offers Ralph Evans’ Quixotic(Quality Road out of a strong female family) and Mott sends TIM 2yo purchase King Khozan. Slightly prefer those that have run..

Most Likely: #10 Trash Talker 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #11 Ego Man 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Quixotic 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 King Khozan 8-1 5th

8th: 97th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P3, DD0

Deep, interesting field of fillies with what looks like an honest pace scenario. Quality faves established from Hennig (Maedean), Shug (Alandra) and Mott (Lake Avenue), but mid-pack stalkers and closers (Critical Value/8-1; Daphne Moon/8-1; Water White/10-1) with shots at prices abound..

Most Likely: #5 Alandra 4-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Water White 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Critical Value 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Daphne Moon 8-1 8th

9th: 104th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (DD)

O’Dwyer by-passed KY Jockey Club for this opportunity with Shotskiand it may prove fortuitous at the 9f trip given his Blame/Bluegrass Cat mare breeding. Has improved with experience and distance and adds Saez who should take advantage of his tactical foot. 15-1 adds to his appeal. Pletcher pair Alpha Sixty Six& Chase Trackerdoff and don blinkers respectively and look equally imposing as the 2nd/3rd choices. Cleon Joneshas improved each start, but needs to prove out around two turns today. Only major knocks against Forza Di Orois 3-1 price and lack of number power as one of the slower participants on figs..

Best Value: #6 Shotski 15-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #8 Alpha Sixty Six 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Chase Tracker 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Cleon Jones 6-1 7th

10th: 30th Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m

As stressed on ATR Friday, worth noting that for all the bashing the ’19 3yo’s seem to take, the 4 here (Maximum Security, Spun to Run, Network Effect, Looking At Bikinis) are at the heart of the narrative. Now, that story line may also be an indictment of the handicap division at large, but the 4, 5 and 6yo’s that fill out this field have many quality graded stake wins and placements to their credit. Key to approaching this Cigar is how early you expect MaxSec and Spun to Run to engage. If they spar from the bell, they’ll be vulnerable. If Saez seizes control, Maximum Security can pull a Private Zone and wire them. Chad’s pair command attention with Brown having built an impressive record in this event via Patternrecognition and Connect wins and 3rd’s from Practical Joke & Matrooh’s. Bal Harbour(5/3-1-1 at 1m) should get an enviable trip behind the speeds and Tale of Silence(8/2-2-1) another effective at the distance..

Most Likely: #5 Maximum Security 3-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 Bal Harbour 8-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Looking At Bikinis 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Tale of Silence 20-1 11th

Empire 6 Grid:

5: 1-2-4-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 3(A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1-3-10-11 (A), – (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 4x1x4x3x3x3 = 432 x .20 = $86.40
Backups: $71.60

7th: 4x1x2x3x3x3 = 216 x .20 = $43.20
9th: 4x1x4x3x1x3 = 144 x .20 = $28.40

P5 Grid:

6: 3(A), – (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
7: 10-11 (A), 1-3 (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), 2-10 (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), 1-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 1x2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

P4 Grid:

7: 10-11 (A), 1-3 (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), 2-10 (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), 1-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

11/30: Churchill Downs (6th-12th; Fleur Dis Lis P4)

Saturday, November 30th, 2019

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

#11 Little Menace seemingly certain to SCR as he is re-entered in Sunday’s MSW 7th and the 7-5 favorite..

Most Likely: #10 Bango 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Art Collector 10-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #6 American Butterfly 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lykan 6-1 4th

7th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m (Single 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Bayerness 5-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #2 Swiss Skydiver 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Emily’s Oasis 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Three D Flag 8-1 10th

8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Watch for SCR’s as 3 of the AE’s (13-14-15) have real potential here..

Most Likely: #5 On Tilt 5-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Elusive Ruler 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Digital 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Mailman Money 10-1 WON ($51.00)
Super Add: #6 Jack’s Advantage 12-1 5th

Fair Grounds 7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Fleur De Lis P4, P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #14 Ioya Again 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 The Last Zip 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Executive Bonus 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Limnery 4-1 2nd

9th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

More interesting than the Jockey Club with an underlaid fave in Finite (7-5) and several prices that have potential..

Most Likely: #6 His Glory 7-2: Lept forward last pair when sent around 2 turns..
Best Value: #4 Bean 12-1: Favored in dirt debut when she dropped Rocco..
Next Best: #2 Turtle Trax 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Finite 7-5 WON ($3.60)

P4 Grid:

6: 7-10 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
7: 2-9(A), – (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 5-9-12 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), 1-3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

10th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Silver State 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Necker Island 4-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Wells Bayou 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Sprawl 8-1 4th

Fair Grounds 9th: Richie Scherer Memorial, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hotshot Anna 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Blue Uluru 12-1 10th
Next Best: #7 A Little Bit Me 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 May Lily 8-1 3rd

11th: KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Tagg & Sackatoga writing next chapter in Funny Cide II as they come to Churchill with a chance to snare the 2yo Championship..

Most Likely: #3 Tiz the Law 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Enforceable 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 South Bend 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Fighting Seabee 8-1 7th

Fleur De Lis P4 Grid:

FG 7: 4-5-14 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
CD 9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5-7-8 (B), – (C)
FG 9: 4-5(A), 7 (B), – (C)
CD 11: 1-3 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x8x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

12th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sounion 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #10 Civil Servant 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Dark Oak 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Icecap 6-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #12 Draw the Line 12-1 10th

P5 Grid:

8: 5-9-12 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), – (B), 1-4 (C)
12: 9(A), 10 (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x1x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x4x4x1x1 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

9: 1-2-4-6 (A), 3-5-7-8 (B), – (C)
10: 3-6-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), 1 (B), 4 (C)
12: 9-10 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x4x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 4x4x1x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

11/23: Aqueduct (6th-10th)

Saturday, November 23rd, 2019

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday, interesting situation with 2-1 fave Telephone Talkerfrom Chad and the Ramseys. Wicked Strong colt debuted short on the main at KEE and ran very well, but jumps to the turf (Kitten Joy mare) and stretches out for 2nd start. Brown also debuts Klaravich’s Assidously(Lope de Vega) and Mott has #12 Queens Empire(Empire Maker) who is out of QEII/Lake Placid winner (and Royal Delta/Khozan sister) Crown Queen. Jerkens’ Plan of Attackhad a peck of trouble in his debut and will be a nice number..

Best Value: #4 Plan of Attack 12-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Telephone Talker 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Assiduously 10-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Tapaloof 15-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Free Enterprise 9-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #1 Fast Talking 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Charlie McCoy 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Double Orb 3-1 6th

REVERSE TRI KEY SPOT PLAY (#6 Zealous, 12-1): 7 with 1-2-3 with 6 (1x3x1 = 3 x $5 = $15)

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-T/Outer (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Getmotherarose 9-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #1 Something Magical Late SCR
Next Best: #8 I’llhandalthecash 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Miss Mystique 8-1 7th

9th: 59th Red Smith (G3), 3+, 11f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Sadler’s Joy 8-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #1 Tiz a Slam 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Red Knight 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Nakamura 8-1 5th

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 2yo, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Unbridled John 7-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Victory Built 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Imperio D 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Carnegie Song 15-1 8th

P5 Grid:

6: 1-4-11 (A), 6-7-9 (B), 8 (C)
7: 7(A), – (B), 1-2-3 (C)
8: 1-4-7-8 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 1-7-8 (A), 3-4-11 (B), 2-6 (C)
10: 2 (A), – (B), 7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x4x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 7(A), – (B), 1-2-3 (C)
8: 1-4-7-8 (A), 5-6 (B), – (C)
9: 1-7-8 (A), 2-3-4-6-11 (B), – (C)
10: 2-7-9 (A), – (B), 5-8-10(C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x8x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (6,7/7/7,12,13,14,15,16/10) Paid $43.50(A-A-A-C) ~ $27

11/20: Churchill Downs ($120k P5 C/O)

Wednesday, November 20th, 2019

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$120k P5 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #8 Wild About Candy 10-1
Next Best: #6 Fra Mauro 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Moonster 10-1
Super Add: #3 Candy Store 6-1

7th: ALW/N2X, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

#11-AE Witez jumps into picture should she draw in..

Best Value: #6 Wexx 10-1
Next Best: #1 Pass the Plate 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Morning Gold 6-1
Super Add: #8 Ask Bailey 7-2

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Balanced and somewhat confused group that may be an ‘all’ race for deep pocket plays..

Best Value: #6 Carte Blanche 6-1
Next Best: #7 Gun It 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 And Seek 8-1
Super Add: #2 Dizzy Sight 6-1

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Curate 9-2
Next Best: #3 Done Deal 5-1
Best Value: #9 Kowboy Karma 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Moonoverseba 10-1

10th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (Hi-5)

$11k Hi-5 C/O here..

Tough anchor leg with career maidens, firsters/first North America and some lightly-raced types from good outfits (Ward, Wilkes, Kenneally) that are liable to improve significantly. .

Most Likely: #5 Hypnotist 5-1
Best Value: #8 Made My Day 12-1
Next Best: #7 Freedom’s Flight 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Dermot 10-1
Hi-5 Play: #3 Ramsey Solution 10-1

P5 Grid:

6: 6-8 (A), 4 (B), 3 (C)
7: 6 (A), 1 (B), 4-8-9 (C)
8: 5-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 3-7-8-9 (A), – (B), 4-10 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), – (B), 2-3-7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x3x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

7: 1-6 (A), 4 (B), 8-9 (C)
8: 5-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 3-7-8-9 (A), – (B), 4-10 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

Good luck!
Steve