Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

6/26: Belmont ($500k 3-day P6 C/O)

Wednesday, June 26th, 2019

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

From Tuesday’s ATR, Mike Beer’s P6 C/O opinions..

Mike Beer’s P6 Grid:

3: 3-4(A), – (B), 2-8 (C)
4: 8 (A), 1 (B), 2-4 (C)
5: 8-10(A), 9 (B), 2 (C)
6: 5-6 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
7: 9-10 (A), 6 (B), – (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 10 (B), 4-5 (C)

3rd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$500k 3-day P6 C/O starts here..

Tricky start to sequence with 5 out of the 5/19 $40k plater won by Allard’s Abiding Star and Mobridge first off the $25k claim for Kantarmaci who is 25% first off tag (10 for 40) AND raising claimers up in class (14 for 56). Not a lot of pace involved at first glance, but rider moves to Saez (Mr Maybe) and J. Ortiz (Shalako) could result in the pressing of (nominal) likely speed Applicator. Big budgets will buy the race..

Most Likely: #7 Harv Won’t Tap 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Applicator 7-2 WON ($9.10)
Best Value: #8 Shalako 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Mr Maybe 4-1 6th

4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Quirky conditioned turf sprint pits 4 multiple-winning state breds (4-5-6-7) against open N1X foes (1-2-8). I guess Brown/Shadwell fave Mutakatif makes sense, but his lone North American effort doesn’t lay him over the group. Does look to have right just off pace style given what appears to be honest pace up front. Not sure what to make of Irad (Shiraz) & Carmouche (Discretionary Marq) flipping mounts OFF horses that they had previously ridden on a regular basis..

Most Likely: #8 Mutakatif 6-5 4th
Best Value: #1 All Systems Go 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Discretionary Marq 5-1 WON ($34.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Shiraz 15-1 7th

5th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Multiple chance types versus some that have not yet had plenty of chances including Dq’d from win Crypto Gold and 2nd timers Whiskey Is My Wine & On a Spree (new gelding/1st for tag)..

Most Likely: #8 Crypto Gold 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Spindletop 8-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Whiskey Is My Wine 4-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #5 On a Spree 12-1 3rd

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

Jonathon Thomas sends Assault Breaker (Street Boss) out for LaPenta and not only is sire very good with early winners, but dam Ouchy Night was a nice stakes-placed NY-bred filly that won first out on this surface at 5.5f..

Most Likely: #4 Assault Breaker 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 All Guns Blazing SCR
Best Value: #2 Our Destiny SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Bull of Bayern 7-2 WON ($5.20)~ Goes Favored

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD)

Bloodstock agent/consigner Harry Landry’s Silencia SCR’Dwas a turf horse from the start and sneaks back into NY for less than well-known Midlantic J/T tandem..

Most Likely: #6 Questeq 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Itsakeyper 12-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Sadie Lady 2-1 WON ($)
Exotics Use: #10 Jaded Lady 5-2 4th

8th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

NYB MDN CLM’rs frequently a perilous sequence end. Lightly raced types earn first looks and nods, but career maidens like Youth Gone Wild cannot be tossed without fear. Use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #3 Fusi 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Gunboat Diplomacy 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Youth Gone Wild 6-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Daddysneverready 8-1 7th

P6 Grid:

3: 4-7 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-6 (C)
4: 8 (A), – (B), 1-6(C)
5: 6-8-10(A), – (B), – (C)
6: 4 (A), – (B), 5(C)
7: 5-6 (A), 9(B), 10 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), – (B), 5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 2x1x3x1x2x2 = 24 x $2 = $48

NYRA Bets P5 Grid:

4: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 6-8-10(A), – (B), 2-5-9 (C)
6: 4-5(A), – (B), – (C)
7: 5-6 (A), 9-10 (B), (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 5-10 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

5: 6-8 (A), 5-10(B), 2-3-9 (C)
6: 4-5(A), – (B), 12-3-6 (C)
7: 5-6-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 5-10 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

6/16: Santa Anita (P6 Force Out)

Sunday, June 16th, 2019

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Tough But Nice 5-2
Next Best: #5 Best Two Minutes 7-2
Best Value: #7 Puriano 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Giddymeister 5-1

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Ellie Arroway 5-1
Best Value: #7 Velvet Queen 8-1
Next Best: #6 Strike At Dawn 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 All Star Cast 6-1

6th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Tapitha Bonita 9-5
Next Best: #7 Convince 3-1
Best Value: #4 Starza 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Rather Noisy 4-1

7th: Possibly Perfect, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Lynne’s Legacy 5-1
Best Value: #4 Mirth 8-1
Next Best: #2 Pantsonfire 2-1
Exotics Use: #1 Zaffinah 5-2

8th: Affirmed (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Mucho Gusto 2-1
Next Best: #5 Roadster 6-5
Best Value: #3 Manhattan Up 12-1
Exotics Use: #4 Kingly 5-1

9th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Ohtani 6-1
Next Best: #8 Boru 2-1
Exotics Use: #10 Zorich 3-1
Super Add: #7 Forecheck 5-1

P6 Force Out Play:

4: 4-5 (A)
5: 2-6-7 (A)
6: 3-4-5-7 (A)
7: 1-2-4-5 (A)
8: 5-6 (A)
9: 1-8 (A)

2x3x4x4x2x2 = 384 x .20 = $76.80

P4 Grid:

6: 5-7 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
7: 2-4-5 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
8: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-8-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

6/15: Belmont ($149k C/O; X-C P5); Churchill (Stakes P5)

Saturday, June 15th, 2019

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$149k DBL P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #3 Hills Pond 10-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Herecomesyourman 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 All Go 3-1 6th
Super Add: #8 War Treaty 5-1 WON ($16.00)

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Passporttovictory 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #1 Parlapiano 10-1 DNF-Pulled up
Next Best: #3 Citizen Matzo 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Not About the Nail 8-1 2nd

DELAWARE 7th: Obeah, F&M-3+, 9f (X-C P5, DD))

Most Likely: #1 Another Broad 3-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Drop Dead Red 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Goodonehoney 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Vente to Go 8-1 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Opry 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Prognostication 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Hoboe 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Morrison 4-1 5th

MONMOUTH 10th: Honey Bee, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Golconda SCR
Next Best: #3 A Bit of Both 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Orra Mor 7-2 DNF-Went wrong
Super Add: #7 Missmizz 5-1 3rd

8th: CLM, 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Thomond Park 6-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Spinning Kitten 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Collins Ave. 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Lucky Bet SCR

9th: NY-Dancin Renee, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Holiday Disguise 9-5 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 Leah’s Dream 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Jc’s Shooting Star 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Midnight Disguise 5-2 3rd

Cross Country P5 Grid:

DEL 7: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
BEL 7: 1-2 (A), – (B), 3-8-9 (C)
MTH 10: 2-3-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
BEL 8: 2-8 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
BEL 9: 2-4 (A), 1-3-5 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x3x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Bad bunch o’ coconuts.. And remember, bad horses win bad races..

Most Likely: #13 Alphatest 4-1 8th
Best Value: #11 Blood Red Sky 15-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Moo Lah 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Amajena 3-1 WON ($8.30)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Mr. Money the horse to beat off the Pat Day, but that effort is a stand alone and several here are within striking range themselves. Timing right for Nolo Contesto to fulfill potential shown in January MDN-breaker..

Most Likely: #3 Nolo Contesto 3-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Mr. Money 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #2 Signalman 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Limonite 7-2 6th

6th: Wise Dan (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Bulky cast and while there a few that appear more likely than others to win, virtually anyone can fill out the exotics..

Best Value: #3 First Premio 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Itsinthepost 5-1 13th
Exotics Use: #9 Inspector Lynley SCR
Super Add: #14 Bourbon Resolution 10-1 8th

7th: Fleur De Lis (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 She’s a Julie 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Blue Prize 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Elate 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #4 Go Google Yourself 10-1 4th

8th: Stephen Foster (G2), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Gift Box, nearly perfect since paired with Rosario, easily most likely. While a few have ‘B’ potential upset chances, doesn’t feel worth bending over backwards trying to beat..

Most Likely: #6 Gift Box 3-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Tom’s d’Etat 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Thirstforlife 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Seeking the Soul 4-1 WON ($11.20)

9th: Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Hard Legacy 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #1 Winter Sunset 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Varenka 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Gamblin Train 10-1 7th

P5 Grid:

5: 3-6(A), – (B), 1-2 (C)
6: 3-7 (A), 9-14 (B), 1-2-6-12 (C)
7: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 6 (A), 9 (B), 1-4(C)
9: 1-4-5(A), – (B), 2-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 3-7 (A), 9-14 (B), 1-2-6-12 (C)
7: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 6-9 (A), – (B), 1-4(C)
9: 1-4-5 (A), 2-6-10 (B), 7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

6/8: Belmont Park (151st Belmont Stakes Day)

Saturday, June 8th, 2019

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Terrific lineup that’s a little devoid of pace..

Most Likely: #4 Rushing Fall 4-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Environs 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Daddy Is a Legend 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Capla Temptress 20-1 6th

5th: Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Come Dancing will try to wire, but Escape Clause has been adding more speed to her arsenal and is no doorknob. If Escape Clause softens up Come Dancing, it will make it easy for Mike Smith to pick them off late..

Most Likely: #1 Come Dancing 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Midnight Bisou 1-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Escape Clause 9-2 4th

6th: Jaipur (G1), 4+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 World of Trouble 1-1: Hard to deny streaking dash colt..WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #6 Disco Partner 3-1: Entered last year off Shakertown loss too..3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Belvoir Bay 5-1: Hard hitting mare will pick up pieces..4th
Super Add: #5 Diamond Oops 30-1: Improved with move to lawn; In light..5th

7th: Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

One of the day’s most interesting races and it’s getting entirely lost in the sheer crush of stakes events. Though it was said going in to KY Oaks, it’s hard to conceive Serengeti getting away easily up front, this time with Cookie Dough, Fancy Dress, Guarana and Ce Ce all pressing the pace..

Best Value: #9 Ce Ce 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Guarana 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Queen of Beas 12-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Serengeti Empress 5-2 2nd

8th: Woody Stephens (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Honest Mischief 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Mind Control 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Much Better 5-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Complexity 4-1 11th

9th: Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 McKinzie 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Firenze Fire 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Coal Front 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Mitole 3-1 WON ($9.00)

10th: Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bricks and Mortar 7-5 WON ($3.30)
Next Best: #10 Channel Maker 9-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Raging Bull 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Qurbaan 8-1 8th

11th: Belmont S. (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Intrepid Heart 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Tacitus 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 War of Will 2-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Sir Winston 12-1 WON ($22.40)

Belmont Festival .20 P6 Play:

FRI 8 (True North): 3-8
FRI 10 (Gold Cup): 3-4-6
SAT 8 (Stephens): 1-2-4-9
SAT 9 (Met Mile): 2
SAT 10 (Manhattan): 89/SCR-10
SAT 11 (Belmont): 6-7-8-9-10

2x3x4x1x3x5 = 360 x .20 = $72

NYRA Bets P5 Grid:

7: 7-9 (A), – (B), 1-3-8 (C)
8: 1-2-4-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-7 (A), – (B), 1-3(C)
10: 8-10 (A), 1-4 (B), 3-5 (C)
11: 8-10 (A), 6-7-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x2x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x4x2x2x2 = 64 x .50 = $32

P4 Grid:

8: 1-2-4-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-7 (A), – (B), 1-3(C)
10: 8-10 (A), 1-4 (B), 3-5 (C)
11: 8-10 (A), 6-7-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #10 Bird’s Eye View 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Abiding Star 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Near Gold 8-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Prioritize 7-2 5th

13th: Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f

Most Likely: #7 You’re to Blame 3-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Marconi 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #3 Sonneteer 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Rocketry 7-2 2nd

P4 Grid:

10: 8-10 (A), – (B), 1-3-4-5 (C)
11: 8-10 (A), 6-7-9 (B), – (C)
12: 3-5-10 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
13: 1-3-7 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

6/7: Belmont Park (4th-11th; $25k $2 P6 C/O)

Friday, June 7th, 2019

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 H Man 2-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #7 Fiery Opal 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Binkster 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Bluegrass Express 10-1 8th

5th: Bed O’ Roses (G3), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Chalon 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Separationofpowers 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #2 Mybigitalianfriend 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Dawn the Destroyer 5-1 3rd

6th: OC/N3X, 4+, 1m-T ($2 P6, P3, DD)

$25k $2 P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #7 Big Handsome 4-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Annals of Time 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Multiplier 8-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Zapperini 7-2 6th

7th: Tremont, 2yo, 5.5f (NYRA Bets P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Dixie Mo 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Fore Left 5-2 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #7 Memorable 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Rookie Salsa 4-1 3rd

8th: True North (G2), 4+, 6.5f (Festival .20 P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Do Share Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Catalina Cruiser 5-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #10 Mr. Dougie Fresh 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Whitmore 7-2 8th

9th: New York (G2), F&M-4+, 10f-Inner Turf (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Homerique 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #6 Competitionofideas 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Semper Sentatiae 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Holy Helena 9-2 4th

10th: Belmont Gold Cup (G2), 4+, 16f-T (Festival P6-Leg B; DD)

Most Likely: #4 Red Knight 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Amade 8-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #6 Arklow 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Highland Sky 15-1 3rd

Belmont Festival .20 P6 Play:

FRI 8 (True North): 3-8
FRI 10 (Gold Cup): 3-4-6
SAT 8 (Stephens): 1-2-4-9
SAT 9 (Met Mile): 2
SAT 10 (Manhattan): 8-9-10
SAT 11 (Belmont): 6-7-8-9-10

2x3x4x1x3x5 = 360 x .20 = $72

11th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f-Inner Turf

Best Value: #11 Ailish 8-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #3 Funny Money Honey 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lila Ruth 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Ragtime Suzy 12-1 8th

P6 Grid:

6: 7-10 (A), 3 (B), 11 (C)
7: 4-6 (A), – (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 38(A), – (B), 7-10 (C)
9: 6-8(A), – (B), 7 (C)
10: 4 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-8-9 (C)
11: 3-11(A), – (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x2x3x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x1x2 = 32 x $2 = $64

$2 Pick-6 (6/2,4/1,3,8/8/3/11) Paid $84.00 (5 OF 6) x 2 = $168.00

NYRA Bets P5 Grid:

7: 4-6 (A), – (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 38(A), 7-10 (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 6-8(A), 7 (B), – (C)
10: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 5-8-9 (C)
11: 3-11(A), – (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 NYRA Bets Late Pick-5 (2,4/1,3,8/8/3/11) $381.75 x 2 = $763.50

P4 Grid:

8: 38(A), 7-10 (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 6-8(A), 7 (B), – (C)
10: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 5-8-9 (C)
11: 2-3-4-11(A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,3,8/8/3/11) Paid $129.00 x 2 = $258.00