SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Makings of a nice group and red hot Casse barn may have the 2 best candidates with experienced La Cara and strong-working firster She’s a Gamer who is from a fast, win-early family..

Best Value: #5 She’s a Gamer 12-1
Next Best: #8 La Cara 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 Elemiah 8-1
Super Add: #6 Bossy Pants 5-1


2nd: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tivy 8-5
Next Best: #1e Rice entry 7-5
Exotics Use: #2 Independent Paul 15-1


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Tough, well matched lawn dash..

Best Value: #3 Your Man Alex 6-1
Next Best: #2 Russi 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Final Denile 3-1
Super Add: #8 Saratoga Banker 10-1


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Mighty Madison 8-5
Best Value: #3 Backyard Money 10-1
Next Best: #2 Signal From Noise 6-5
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Starship Defiant 4-1


5th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

These are good maidens with Military Road/Protective having had several chances and Itza Mirrakle/Trulli Warrior exiting debuts behind impressive Centennial Saturday ALW winner Illuminaire..

Best Value: #4 Itza Mirrakle 4-1
Next Best: #7 Protective 8-5
Exotics Use: #6 Trulli Warrior 6-1
Super Add: #1 Military Road 9-5


P5 Grid:

1: 2-5-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
2: 4 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
3: 2-3 (A), – (B), 7-8 (C)
4: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 4-7 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7-8 in 3rd)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 2-3 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
4: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 4-7 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Deep, interesting older F&M’s looking to graduate..

Best Value: #2 Coif 10-1
Next Best: #1e DeVaux entry 2-1
Exotics Use: #6 Out too Late 15-1
Super Add: #8 Strife 4-1


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 11f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Several price options for this 3-turner, but Keri Brion’s Crabs N Beer will relish trip and could float up given wide draw and bigger trainer names in view..

Best Value: #10 Crabs N Beer 8-1 ~ DePaula Play of the Day..
Next Best: #5 Daunt 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 Six Minus 8-1
Super Add: #2 Truly Quality 5-2


P4 Grid:

4: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 4-7 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)
6: 1-2 (A), 6 (B), – (C)
7: 5-10 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-4 in 7th)


8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Magia Nera 5-2
Next Best: #3 Prove Worthy 6-5
Exotics Use: #9 Philharmonic 15-1
Super Add: #4 Stop the Spread 20-1


9th: Quick Call (G3), 3yo, 5.5f-T (DD)

Beat Byk Race 2.. Enter: https://www.ntra.com/nhc/beatbyk/

Most Likely: #6 Star of Mystery 4-5
Next Best: #3 Fandom 9-2
Best Value: #7 American Rascal 20-1
Exotics Use: #5 Mansa Musa 6-1


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-Inner

Most Likely: #10 Billy’s Got Issues 6-1
Best Value: #7 Write Off Jerry 8-1
Next Best: #5 Downing Street 8-1
Exotics Use: #1 La Maquina 8-1


P5 Grid:

6: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 5-10 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
8: 3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 5-7-10 (A), 1-2-6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

7: 5-10 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
8: 3-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 5-7-10 (A), 1-2-6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AACA): 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (3 in 9th)


Good luck!
Steve

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW-$, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Amore Sofia 5-1
Next Best: #4 Dare to Breeze 4-5
Exotics Use: #2 Mischief Maxey 9-2
Super Add: #3 Gerlin’s Empire 6-1


2nd: Kelso (G3), 4+, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Carl Spackler 2-1
Next Best: #4 Talk of the Nation 2-1


3rd: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Celestial Gaze 3-1
Best Value: #3 Didinger 12-1
Next Best: #1a (POE) Top Gunner 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Lost in Rome 8-1


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 CLASSIC LEGACY 5-2
Next Best: #2 Illuminaire 7-5
Best Value: #6 Vinco 12-1
Exotics Use: #4 Kunshan Bridge 8-1


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Rebel Red 5-1
Next Best: #1e Brown entry 6-5
Exotics Use: #7 Ramblin’ Wreck 4-1
Super Add: #8 Samburu 8-1


P5 Grid:

1: 4-5 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
2: 4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 3-4 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
4: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A’s:


P4 Grid:

2: 4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 3-4 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
4: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A’s:


6th: NY-ALW/N1Z, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Act of Congress could prove tough to catch here. After that, there’s 7-8 that look eligible..

Most Likely: #10 Act of Congress 5-1
Next Best: #1 Turriga 5-1
Best Value: #3 City Blocks 30-1
Exotics Use: #7 Stolen Future 7-2


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f ($1 P6, P3, DD)

This is a problematic group of babies..

Best Value: #2 Moment’s Notice 8-1
Next Best: #3 Tenacious Leader 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Munson 6-1
Super Add: #1 Tough Catch 8-1


P4 Grid:

4: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1-10 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 1-2-3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 1x3x2x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)
Backup (AACA): 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Yeesh. More problematic maidens, albeit for a different reason.. These have clear talent and there’s easily 7 conceivable for graduation (1-1a-2-3-5-7-10)..

Best Value: #5 Escondido 10-1
Next Best: #10 Hurricane Nelson 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Upstanding 4-1
Super Add: #2 Point Clear 5-1


MONMOUTH 9th: Blue Sparkler, 3yo-F, 5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #8 Shuangxi 5-1
Next Best: #4 Tiffany Girl 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Super Freaky Girl 4-1
Super Add: #5 El Terreno 9-2


Cross Country P5 Grid:

MTH 9: 4-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAR 9: 8-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
MTH 10: 6-7 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
SAR 10: 1-6 (A), 3-4-5 (B), – (C)
SAR 11: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-5 in MTH 10th)


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Irish Aces is certainly ‘likeliest’ dropping back from stakes placement, but also has a license to regress which would open the window to a host of alternatives. Cherie brings Taking Candy back from year layoff and he was terrific here last summer taking ALW ahead of Saranac 2nd to Carl Spackler. Will be obscured v. those with recency..

Best Value: #10 Taking Candy 10-1
Next Best: #8 Irish Aces 2-1
Exotics Use: #9 Beuys 5-1
Super Add: #1 Tidal Forces 10-1


P5 Grid:

5: 1-3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 10 (A), 1 (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 8-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAAA): 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-7 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-10 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 8-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


MONMOUTH 10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #6 Palm Island 9-5
Next Best: #7 Threethirtythree 9-2
Best Value: #3 Cruising Derek 15-1
Exotics Use: #5 Little Skippy 8-1


10th: Diana (G1), F&M-4+, 9f-Inner (P3, DD)

The 1st Beat Byk race of the season and it’s an absolute war. Moira should be ready to fire and Whitebeam has a tactical edge with uncertainty of where the speed is coming from.. Play to qualify to win a seat to NHC: https://www.ntra.com/nhc/beatbyk/

Most Likely: #1 Moira 5-1
Next Best: #6 Whitebeam 4-1
Best Value: #3 Mission of Joy 10-1
Exotics Use: #5 Gina Romantica 8-1


11th: Sanford (G3), 2yo, 6f (DD)

Jerry Robb returns with Studlydoright and while he won’t be 14-1 again, he won’t be close to favored either. Right back. Mentee and Baby Dukes could end up sparing up front and Butch Reid’s debut winner offers value at 12-1..

Most Likely: #6 Studlydoright 7-2
Best Value: #3 Baby Dukes 12-1
Next Best: #5 Three Echoes 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Mo Plex 8-1


12th: OC-S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #7 Three Zero 6-1
Next Best: #9 Rhythm Nic 9-2
Exotics Use: #2 Dr Oseran 7-2
Super Add: #5 Heymackit’sjack 8-1


P5 Grid:

8: 3-5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 8-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 3-4-5-10 (B), – (C)
11: 6 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
12: 7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x6x1x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 8-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), 4-5-10 (B), – (C)
11: 3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

https://stevebyk.com/2024/07/07/7-7-belmont-at-aqueduct-114k-must-pay-p6-c-o/

ELLIS PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N2L, 3yo, 7f (.20 P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Fave seems legit and Merit probably has been meant for one turn..

Most Likely: #7 Give Me a Reason 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Merit 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Not This Boy 6-1 WON ($6.26)
Exotics Use: #3 Run Jalen Run 9-2 2nd


5th: Dade Park Dash, 3yo, 5.5f-OFF (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Joe Shiesty is deserving fave off Walker win Derby Week, but ‘other’ Foster (Alwaysintomischief) has sneaky look turning back..

Most Likely: #1 Bear River 3-1 WON ($6.14)
Next Best: #6 Committeeofone 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Barksdale 7-2 4th


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Fairly mysterious set of babies with Lynch sending favored Mrs Worldwide (5-2) to 2nd start from tricky post..

Best Value: #2 Rita’s Legacy 12-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Mrs Worldwide 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Dawn After Dawn 10-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Bread to Run 5-1 4th


7th: MCLM/$30k, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Grapes for Eloise 8-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Mystical Chant 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Pam Pam 6-1 WON ($18.34)
Super Add: #1 Play Maker 10-1 7th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-OFF (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Silver Heist 3-1 6th
Next Best: #13 Lips Say Bliss 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Our Dream Rye’d 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Gatlinburg 6-1 7th


9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Claret Beret WON ($7.06)
Next Best: #1 Raconteuse 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Leo Toro 2nd
Super Add: #2 Mac to Moore 3rd


P5 Grid:

5: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 2-12 (A), 7-11 (B), – (C)
7: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 12-13 (A), 5-10 (B), – (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x4x1 = $96
All A’s: 3x2x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

6: 2-12 (A), 7-11 (B), – (C)
7: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 12-13 (A), 5-10 (B), – (C)
9: 1-3 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x2 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A’s: 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT (X-C P5 w/ MTH 8th/9th)

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Venge Gate SCR
Next Best: #3 Messi the Magician 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Muazarah 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Bonne Chance 6-1 4th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-Outer (P4, P3, DD)

Deep group and tricky start to daunting Cross Country P5 sequence..

Best Value: #3 Heymackit’sjack 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Final Denile 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Instamatic 2-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #4 Your Man Alex 5-1 4th

Cross Country P5 Grid:

BAQ 8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
MTH 8: 3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
BAQ 9: 1 (A), 8 (B), 3-7 (C)
MTH 9: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
BAQ 10: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-7 in BAQ 9th)

MONMOUTH 8th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD

Most Likely: #3 Laramore 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Abby the Bull Dawg 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Miss Casey 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Between Dreams 7-2 3rd

9th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Golden Degree 7-2 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #8 Six Pack Senorita 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Gav’s Dream Girl 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Spiritual Lady 8-1 5th

MONMOUTH 9th: Goldwood, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #9 Hollywood Walk 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Queen of the Mud 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Beauty of the Sea 7-2 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #10 All That Magic 4-1 4th

10th: Wild Applause, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

As mentioned with Marcus Hersh yesterday, there are several more likely winners than Awesome Czech (15-1), but she represents the layoff return opportunity scenario I frequently bring up. Away 7 months, there’s a real chance based on Mendelssohn progeny stats that she comes back at a level well ahead of his opponents..

Best Value: #6 Awesome Czech 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Vino Rouge 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Oversubscribed 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #1 Gala Brand 4-1 5th

11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Outer

Impossibly messy set where firsters (6-9-10) might not have to be overly special to win, while surface/distance movers (2-4-11-12) and droppers (1-7) can make cases for various levels of inclusion..

Best Value: #7 A Lister 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Holder Close 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Neptune Beach 8-1 7th
Super Add: #12 Arco Augusta 10-1 6th

P5 Grid:

7: 2/SCR-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
9: 1-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-7 (A), 1-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-7 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
9: 1-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-7 (A), 1-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-7 in 9th)