Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

2/20: Aqueduct (4th-9th; X-C); Spot Plays (LRL, SA)

Saturday, February 20th, 2021

AQUEDUCT ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

AQU 4th: S/ALW, 4+, 6f (No CAW Empire 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Siena Magic 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Jake Rocks 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Brilliant Brooks 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 The Big S 5-1 6th

AQU 5th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 starts here..

Most Likely: #7 Lemon Drop Road 9-5 6th
Best Value: #2 Sono Grato 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Will E. Sutton 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Exalted Charm 8-1 5th

TAM 8th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 1m-40y (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Malio’s 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Irish Major 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Ethan Hunt 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Brandt SCR

AQU 6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Heirloom Kitten 7-2 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #5 Laddie Lam 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Supreme Aura 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Runabout 10-1 5th

AQU 7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Eloquent Speaker 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #7 Wailin Josie 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Ifihadachance 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 More Glitter 4-1 7th

TAM 9th: MCLM/$20k, 4+, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Himelstein 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Pachi 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Deny 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Luca Drew the Ace 20-1 6th

AQU 8th: Maddie May-NY, 3yo-F, 1m (DD)

Anchor leg of the X-C a devilish state-bred assembly..

Most Likely: #3 Make Mischief 5-1 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #5 Shanes Pretty Lady 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Vacay 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Irish Constitution 10-1 5th

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

AQU 5: 2-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
TAM 8: 4-7 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
AQU 7: 8 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
TAM 9: 4-7 (A), 8-11 (B), – (C)
AQU 8: 1-3-5 (A), 2-6-7-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x4x7 = 168 x .50 = $84
All A’s: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (9) + $18 (7)

AQU 9th: MCLM/$20k, 4+, 6f

Most Likely: #5 Warfront Fighter 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Scorpion Dynasty 3-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best Value: #3 Ouch Ouch Ouch 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Confectioner 6-1 3rd

Empire 6 Play:

4: 1-5-6
5: 2-6-7
6: 1-5-7
7: 8
8: 1-3-5-6
9: 2-3-5

Simple: 3x3x3x1x4x3 = 324 x .20 = $64.80

P5 Grid:

5: 2-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 8 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
8: 3-5 (A), 1-6 (B), 2-7-8 (C)
9: 2-5 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (7) + $27 (2-7-8) + $18 (3-8)

P4 Grid:

6: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 8 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
8: 1-3-5 (A), 2-6-7-8 (B), – (C)
9: 2-3-5-8 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x7x4 = 84 x .50 = $42
All A’s: 3x1x3x4 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (7) + $9 (6-7)

$0.50 Pick-4 (4,7/2,8/3,4,9/2) Paid $60.75 (A-A-A-A)

LAUREL

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Nellie Morse, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Wicked Awesome 9-2: Ferris Allen’s 5yo debuting mare pointing to plus effort.. 7th

8th: Gen. George (G3), 4+, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Laki 9-2: Venerable 8yo can stalk pace and close for Dilodovico; Does his best work over this strip.. 3rd

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Buena Vista (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Charmaine’s Mia 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Sloane Garden 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Mucho Unusual 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Warren’s Showtime 5-1 3rd

9th: ALW/M1X, 4+, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Best Chance 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Cruel Intention 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 I Got No Munny 15-1
Super Add: #2 Coast of Roan 4-1 4th

Good luck!

2/16: Fair Grounds ~ Fat Tuesday (5th-9th)

Tuesday, February 16th, 2021

FAIR GROUNDS ~ FAT TUESDAY

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Save 3-1 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #1 Makeajoyfulnoise 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Puye Timing 9-2 5th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-Off/Turf (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #14 Adventuring 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #7 Peace Broker 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #16 D’oro Forever 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Naughty Rendezvous 8-1 4th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lady of Luxury 9-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #3 Goulding 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Gianna’s Gift 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Sixth Street 6-1 4th

8th: Mardi Gras, F&M-4+, 5.5f-Off/Turf (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Into Mystic 2nd
Next Best: #2 Elle Z WON ($6.60)

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f

Warrant (Constitution) a half to Ms Locust Point; Gunner Paul (Exaggerator) a half to Merneith; Koolhaus (Nyquist) a $600k OXO buy..

Most Likely: #10 Wild for Wycliff 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Warrant 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #8 Run Fast 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Koolhaus 9-2 3rd

P5 Grid:

5: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 7-14 (A), 9-16 (B), 8-15 (C)
7: 1 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
8: 1-2 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-8-10 (A), – (B), 1-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (8-15) + $18 (1-5-7)

$0.50 Pick-5 (2,5,7/14/1,2/2/3) Paid $111.70 (A-A-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

6: 7-14-16 (A), 8-9-15 (B), – (C)
7: 1-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-2 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-8-10 (A), 7 (B), 1-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $12 (1-5)

$0.50 Pick-4 (14/1,2/2/3) Paid $58.55 (A-A-A-A)

2/13: Fair Grounds (7th-13th)

Saturday, February 13th, 2021

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Col. Power, 4+, 5.5f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Just Might 9-2 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #4 Extravagant Kid 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Manny Wah 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Bango 12-1 5th

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Strong group auditioning for LA Derby slot including Asmussen’s Defeater who considered the Risen Star but runs here in 2nd start. Turfy Risk Manager gets chance on main track and can impact if dirt a fit. With 5 stretchout entrants involved, pace has to be honest at the least..

Most Likely: #8 Gagetown 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Big Lake 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #11 Regular Guy 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Defeater 6-1 2nd

9th: Big Al Memorial, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dalika 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #9 Secret Message 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Pass the Plate 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Room to Finish 8-1 8th

10th: Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Maxfield 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Dinar 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Enforceable 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Wells Bayou 6-1 SCR

P4 Grid:

7: 1-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 8-10 (A), 4-11 (B), – (C)
9: 3-7-9 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
10: 4 (A), – (B), 1-2/SCR-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x1 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A’s: 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup: 3x2x2x2 = 54 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/10/7/2,4) Paid $76.55 (A-A-A-A)

11th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Factor This 3-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Spectacular Gem 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Dontblamerocket 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Set Piece 10-1 4th

12th: Rachel Alexandra (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Not a lot of pace here, so expect aggressive Geroux to be forward with fresh Travel Column..

Best Value: #6 Zoom Up 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Travel Column 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Clairiere 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #2 Souper Sensational 8-1 6th

13th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 9f

Prices reflect revised ML. I don’t think Senor Buscador is getting beat any time soon..

Best Value: #5 SENOR BUSCADOR 9-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Midnight Bourbon 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Mandoulin 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #1 Starrininmtydreams 12-1

P5 Grid:

9: 3-7-9 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
10: 4 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 2-7-8-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 6-8 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
13: 5 (A), – (B), 6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 3x1x4x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $24 (1-5) + $24 (6-11)

P4 Grid:

10: 4 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 2-7-8-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 6-8 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
13: 5 (A), – (B), 6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x1 = $16
All A’s: 1x4x2x1 = $8
Backups: $8 (1-5) + $8 (6-11)

2/6: Tampa (8th-12th); Aqueduct (7th-8th; X-C P5)

Saturday, February 6th, 2021

TAMPA BAY DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Tampa Bay (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Interesting group and countless price options, so try to be creative and aggressive. Armistice Day (10-1) can fire fresh and best turf tries contend..

Best Value: #11 Armistice Day 10-1
Next Best: #10 Fancy Liquor 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Admission Office 6-1
Super Add: #9 Sole Volante 15-1

AQUEDUCT 7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 Starts Here..

On paper, Mabel Island way the filly to beat, but she’s never won 2 in a row reacting negatively to every big effort.

Most Likely: #2 Fair Lassie 7-2
Best Value: #6 Ifihadachance 5-1
Next Best: #4 Mabel Island 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Ellarella 7-2

TAMPA 9th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Feeling Mischief 9-2: SCR of the 2 faves makes her the one to catch, beat..
Next Best: #9 Il Malocchio 10-1
Best Value: #8 Be Sneaky 12-1
Exotics Use: #10 Special Princess 8-1

AQUEDUCT 8th: Withers (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Shackqueenking 10-1: 9f will suit with best efforts coming around 2 turns..
Next Best: #5 Risk Taking 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Royal Number 6-1
Super Add: #3 Capo Kane 3-1

TAMPA 10th: Endeavour (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Counterparty Risk 5-2
Next Best: #6 New York Girl 4-1
Best Value: #8 Iron of Reality 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Kelsey’s Cross 6-1

TAMPA 11th: Sam F. Davis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Pairs from Pletcher & Mott merit plenty of respect, but note race has had only 1 successful fave ($5 McCraken in ’17) in last 5 runnings with average winner in the 7-1 range. And as has been widely cited, Known Agenda won’t be 6-1..

Best Value: #6 Runway Magic 8-1
Next Best: #3 Known Agenda 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Nova Rags 4-1
Super Add: #1 Hidden Stash 10-1

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

AQU 7: 2-4-6 (A), 1-3-5-7 (B), – (C)
TAM 9: 2 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
AQU 8: 1-2-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
TAM 10: 5 (A), – (B), 3-6-7-8 (C)
TAM 11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x1x4x1x4 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 3x1x4x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: $12 (9) + $48 (3-6-7-8)

12th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Free Flayme 6-1
Next Best: #3 Indy Ride 5-1
Exotics Use: #5 Shakem N Breakem 12-1
Super Add: #10 First Degree 4-1

P5 Grid:

8: 2-10-11 (A), 5-9 (B), – (C)
9: 2 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
10: 5-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
12: 3-7 (A), – (B), 5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (9) + $12 (3-7) + $18 (5-10)

P4 Grid:

9: 2-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 5-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
12: 3-5-7 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $12 (3-7)

Good luck!
Steve

1/31: Sam Houston (Classic Day; Space City P6)

Sunday, January 31st, 2021

SAM HOUSTON RACE PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Turf Sprint, 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Carotari 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Fast Boat 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Tiger Blood 10-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Share the Upside 4-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Change of Control 6-1 3rd

6th: Stars/Stripes Sprint, 4+, 5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Nitrous 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #9 Hollis 5-2 DH-WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Sky Ride 10-1 DH-WON ($6.00)

Exotics Use: #6 Bourbon County 8-1 7th

7th: TX Turf Mile, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Palazzi 6-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Fighting Force 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Excess Magic 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Texas Bad Boy 15-1 6th

8th: Ladies Classic (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Letruska 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Ujjayi 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lady Apple 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Motion Emotion 7-2 5th

9th: John Connally (G3), 4+, 12f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tenfold 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Marzo 10-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Spooky Channel 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Conviction Trade 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Tut’s Revenge 9-2 12th

10th: Jersey Lily, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Morning Molly 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #1 Catch a Bid 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Stunning Sky 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Curlin’s Journey 15-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Kuora 20-1 8th

P6 Grid:

5: 3-7-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), 9 (B), 5 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 7 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
9: 4-6-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7 (A), – (B), 8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x1x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x1x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (5) + $18 (3) + $9 (8) = $45

$0.50 Pick-6 (7/5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $462.30 (6OF6) A/B & A-C-A-A-A-A
$0.50 Pick-6 (7/5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $9.25 (5OF6) x 9

P5 Grid:

6: 1-9 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
8: 7 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
9: 4-6-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (5) + $18 (2-3) = $27

$0.50 Pick-5 (5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $122.90 (5OF5) A/B & C-A-A-A-A
$0.50 Pick-5 (5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $3.20 (4OF5) x 9

P4 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 4-6-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $27 (1-4-5)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1/7/10/7) Paid $59.90 (A-A-A-A)