Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

9/18: Belmont Park (6th-10th)

Friday, September 18th, 2020

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Scarlett Sky 8-5
Best Value: #6 Lowcountry 8-1
Next Best: #3 Honorable 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Space Launch 9-2

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-Inner (P3, P3, DD)

Nice group for $40k..

Best Value: #9 Kilronan 12-1
Next Best: #8 Red Mule 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Big Wonder 3-1
Super Add: #12 Our Troubadour 5-1

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Prairie Fire 6-1
Next Best: #3 Good Credence 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Bustin Scones 12-1
Super Add: #4 Jewel of Arabia 5-2

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (DD)

Nice group, but Motion (#2 Mary’s France) deadly with first time North American types..

Most Likely: #2 Mary’s France 7-2
Best Value: #1 Windfall Profit 5-1
Next Best: #8 Lashara 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Una Luna 6-1

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #12 Nero’s Fiddle 6-1
Next Best: #10 Bricco 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Selfmade 5-1
Super Add: #5 Unlikely 30-1

P5 Grid:

6: 7 (A), – (B), 6 (C)
7: 2-8-9 (A), 3-7-12 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 10-12 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6 w/ 2-8-9 w/ 3-7 w/ 1-2-8 w/10-12)

P4 Grid:

7: 2-8-9 (A), 3-7-12 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 1-2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 10-12 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-8-9 w/ 2-4 w/ 1-2-8 w/10-12)

Good luck!
Steve

9/16: Canterbury Park ($41k P5 C/O)

Wednesday, September 16th, 2020

CANTERBURY PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

$41k carryover going in to a very tricky sequence..

Most Likely: #3 Creative Art 4-1
Best Value: #5 Libertarian 10-1
Next Best: #9 Mines Made Up 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Fender Bender 12-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Homeland Messa 5-2
Best Value: #2 Son of Poseidon 12-1
Next Best: #10 Pleasant Moon 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Campaign Spy 4-1

11th: MN-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Henry O’Henry 9-2
Next Best: #7 Gopher Gold 7-2
Exotics Use: #10 Lil’ Ninja 5-1
Super Add: #9 Public Safety 5-2

12th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Speeding Kid 9-2
Best Value: #3 Attain Success 5-1
Next Best: #5 Got Even Smarter 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Omen of Change

13th: MCLM/$5k, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #8 And He’s Loose 5-2
Best Value: #6 Nazdrave 8-1
Next Best: #10 Rockthepulpit 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Twirlincottoncandy 12-1

P5 Grid:

9: 3-5 (A), 6-9 (B), – (C)
10: 2-6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), – (B), 10 (C)
12: 7 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
13: 6-8-10 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup 1: 2x3x1x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (3-5 w/ 4-7-10 w/ 10 w/ 7 w/ 6-8-10)
Backup 2: 2x3x2x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-5 w/ 4-7-10 w/ 4-7 w/ 7 w/ 4-5)

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 10 (B), – (C)
12: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 6-8-10 (A), 4-5-7-9-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x8 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

9/15: Indiana Grand (P5 C/O); KY Downs (7th-11th)

Tuesday, September 15th, 2020

INDIANA DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N2L, , 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Start of P5 with $51k carryover on a brutally challenging sequence starting with this juvy filly set that is nearly impossible to distinguish. Don’t think you’re going to be comfortable unless you’ve somehow covered all of them. Small budgets may have to rely on Calhoun’s New Boss who shows up from successful stalk and go Texas MDN trip and lands Parker for this assignment. Scat’s Choice went from Belterra MDN win to the Sorrento at DMR and wasn’t embarrassed. Brad Cox offers a pair (#5 Corey; #8 Coach) that both won on debut at IND with modest figs and either (or both) could easily improve enough to contend..

Most Likely: #2 New Boss 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Corey 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Scat’s Choice 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Coach 7-2 WON ($6.40)

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Kona Kai is 3-5, but she’s 4/0-3-0 with losses as favorite at 7-5 & 5-2 last pair..

Most Likely: #1 Kona Kai 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #6 Ghosting Kim 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Honorable Memory 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Turn to Me Sucree 15-1 7th

7th: CLM-IN, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Versatile Wing and Wheel one of several droppers and owns distinct edge. Lauer returns well-priced In a Fog (10-1) to restricted company. Consistent Love That Surprise another that gets class relief today. Portobello’s Hero figures to be on top early, a formula that aced similar 3 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #6 Wing and Wheel 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 In a Fog 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Love That Surprise 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Portobello’s Hero 9-2 WON ($4.60)

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f-T (DD, Pentafecta Hi-5)

Saturday Night even money for Cox after pair of Ellis placements at 5.5f-T and adds Lasix today (Cox 38%; $3.29 ROI). Jeff Bloom & Asmussen offer 2nd timer Mishpocha (“Mish-poochk-ah” ~ Yiddish for family) who need only improve a hair to best favorite. Misplaced NY-bred Lollygag adds Lasix after rough time visiting Saratoga. Helen Pitts firster Chakra likely needs one but has some sibling strength..

Best Value: #10 Mishpocha 9-2 4th
Most Likely: #4 Saturday Night 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Lollygag 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Chakra 10-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Little Bird Flash 15-1 7th

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

This is a treacherous, well-matched group. Indiana bred Timeless Rose cleared state bred ALW condition in career best effort for Granitz/Sanjur last and can surprise here v. open company..

Best Value: #8 Timeless Rose 8-1 WON ($20.40)
Next Best: #2 Liraz 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Spun Easy 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Tomorra 12-1 5th

P5 Grid:

5: 2 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-8 (C)
6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 7 (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $72 (4x3x2x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48; 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)

P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $24 (3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,8/8/4,5,11,12/8) Paid $54.20

KENTUCKY DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Mishko 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Hay Dakota 8-5 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Power End 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 By Your Side 5-2 2nd

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Momentous Miss 12-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #5 Train to Artemus 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Persevering 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Palm Court 4-1 8th

9th: TVG, F&M-3+, 12.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Theodora B. 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #3 Mrs. Sippy 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 English Affair 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Over Thinking 8-1 5th

10th: Untapable, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Red Ghost 3-1 7th
Next Best: #10 La Libertee 9-2 11th
Best Value: #9 Miss Maddy 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Emro 6-1 WON ($16.80)

11th: Music City, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Miss J McKay 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Kimari 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Finite 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Lighthouse 8-1 WON ($24.00)
Hi-5 Play: #6 She’s My Type 5-1 10th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 10-11 (A), 6-8-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

8: 4-5-7 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
9: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 8-10-11 (A), 1-5-6-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

9/12: Woodbine (7-13); KY Downs (7-11)

Saturday, September 12th, 2020

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Dani’s Victory 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ben Lomand 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Fast Negotiations 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Entry to Heaven 6-1 7th

8th: Bison City-R, 3yo-F, 8.5f (.20 P5, P3, )

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Katherine 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Truth Hurts 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Mizzen Beau 4-1 WON ($19.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Gun Society 8-1 4th

9th: Canadian (G2), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Cambier Parc 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Elizabeth Way 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Another Time 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Amalfi Coast 6-1 8th

10th (5:41p ET): 161st Queen’s Plate-R, 3yo, 10f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Curlin’s Voyage 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Merveilleux 10-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Clayton 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Halo Again 5-1 14th

11th: ALW/N$Y, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Fairywren 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Double Medal 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Short Summer Dress 4-1
Super Add: #5 Grey Seal 20-1 4th

12th: Ruling Angel, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Avie’s Samurai 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Boardroom 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Artie’s Princess 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #4 Our Secret Agent 6-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

8: 2 (A), 3 (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 3-10 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
10: 10 (A), 2 (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 1-6-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x3x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A’s: 1x2x1x3x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backups: 2x2x1x3x2 (12) + 1x2x1x3x2 (6) + 1x2x2x3x2 (12) = $30

13th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Mandatory Pay Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Guestimation 3-1 WON ($10.30)
Next Best: #4 Giant Critic 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #13 Tallestofthetall 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Secret Path 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Green Growth 10-1 8th

P4 Grid:

10: 10 (A), 2 (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 1-6-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 4-6-11-13 (A), 1-2-5-7-9-10 (B), 3-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x10 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 1x3x2x5 = 30 x .50 = $15
Backups: 2x3x2x5 (30) + 1x3x2x3 = (9) = $39

KENTUCKY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Ladies Turf (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Regal Glory 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Mitchell Road 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Secret Message 4-1 5th

8th: Ladies Sprint (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Cariba 8-1 11th
Next Best: #8 Got Stormy 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Into Mystic 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Winning Envelope 20-1 2nd

9th: Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Fauci 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Outadore 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Bodenheimer 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 County Final 9-2 4th

10th: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Best Value: #6 Postulation 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Zulu Alpha 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Red Knight 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Hierarchy 10-1 6th

11th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Imprimis 8-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #4 Totally Boss 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Kanthaka 5-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Bound for Nowhere SCR
Hi-5 Play: #2 Stubbins 6-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-6 (A), 3-8 (B), – (C)
8: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-9 (A), 6 (B), 2-3-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-6 w/ 7-8-11 w/ 9-10 w/ 6-10 w/ 2-3-12)

P4 Grid:

8: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6-10 (A), 2-12 (B), – (C)
11: 4-6-9 (A), 2-3-12 (B), 7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (7-8-11 w/ 9-10 w/ 6-10 w/ 7-10)

9/4-5: Churchill Downs (146th Derby/Oaks Weekend)

Thursday, September 3rd, 2020

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH DERBY DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Essential Quality 3-1: Godolphin Tapit homebred out of fast sprint mare.. WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Santa Cruiser 15-1: Desormeaux firster a half to quick Beau Oxy.. 3rd
Next Best: #11 Rye Sense of Humor 6-1: Chased Drop Anchor home at ELP.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Xietelhuas 12-1: May want turf, but Eric Reed sharp debut guy.. 11th

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Spanish Kingdom 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 On a Spree 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #4 Trident Hit 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Attorney Tim 8-1 4th

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Cowboy Diplomacy 7-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Cool Bobby 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Wayne O 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Coastal Defense 8-1 2nd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

One of the weekend’s most interesting races. 10-1 Tank Commander is a regally bred ouchy type with an ideal behind the speed style..

Best Value: #5 Tank Commander 10-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Locally Owned 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Signalman 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Chess Chief 6-1 8th

8th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Smooth Like Strait 8-5 4th
Best Value: #2 American Butterfly 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Field Pass 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Fancy Liquor 9-2 WON ($11.60)

P5 Grid:

4: 4-5-11 (A), 1-6-10 (B), – (C)
5: 5-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-5-12 (A), 7-9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54 (4-5-11 with 5-8 with 6-11 with 4-5-12 with 2-4-8)

P4 Grid:

5: 5-8 (A), 4 (B), – (C)
6: 4-6-11 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
7: 4-5-7-12 (A), 9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x6x1 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 2x3x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (5-8 with 4-6-11 with 4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8)

9th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (.20 Must Pay Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Echo Town 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Digital 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Rushie 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Tap It to Win 4-1 3rd

10th: Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Therideofalifetime 7-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Ultimate Badger 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Super Stock 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Belafonte 20-1 10th

11th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Newspaperofrecord 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Juliet Foxtrot 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Daddy Is a Legend 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 La Signare 10-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

7: 4-5-7-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 2-5-9 (A), 4-6 (B), – (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 4x1x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 4x3x3x2x1 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8 with 2-5-9 with 4-10 with 1)

P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), 4-8 (B), – (C)
9: 2-4-5-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
11: 4 (A), – (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10 (2-5 with 2-5-6-7-9 with 4-10 with 5)

12th: Derby City Distaff (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ce Ce 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Serengeti Empress 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Bell’s the One 10-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Bellafina 3-1 6th

13th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Sacred Life 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Mr Dumas 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Factor This 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Rockemperor 7-2 3rd

14th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #17 Tiz the Law 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #16 Honor A.P. 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #18 Authentic 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Best Value: #3 Enforceable 30-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Thousand Words Late SCR
Hi-5 Play: #15 Ny Traffic 20-1 8th

Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 8 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)

Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3×3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1×3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18) $3 Oaks-Derby Double (7/18) Paid $522.60

Backup: 3×3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)

.20 ‘Must Pay’ Single Six:

9: 2-4-5-6-9
10: 3-4-6-10
11: 3-4
12: 4-6-8-9-10
13: 8
14: 16-17

All A’s: 5x4x2x5x1x2 = 400 x .20 = $80

P5 Grid:

10: 4-10 (A), 3-6-8-9 (B), – (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), – (C)
13: 8 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4-6-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x1x4x1x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)
Backup: 2x1x4x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48 (4-10 with 4 with 1-4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-6-9 with 16-17)

P4 Grid:

11: 4 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), – (C)
13: 8 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-3-4-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), 3-18 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x3x1x2 = 6 x $2 = $12
Backup: 1x3x5x2 = 30 x .50 = $15 (4 with 4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-9 with 16-17)

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH OAKS DAY

POST-LATE SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Scorching Wayne Catalano (Ocean Breeze here, Manny Wah SCR in 6th, MDN Pit Boss in the 3rd Saturday) is 11 for 44 over the last 90 days with 28 of 44 in the money..

Most Likely: #6 Ocean Breeze 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 She Can’t Sing 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Miss T Too 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Palomita 7-2 2nd

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Honorifique 12-1: 2nd timer bulleted; Kenneally poised for nice weekend.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Travel Column 7-2: $850k Frosted from Cox for Larry Best.. WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Amiche 9-2: Firster savvy Devaux w/ 3 graded STK run’rs at CD, SAR.. 10th
Super Add: #5 Three Tipsy Chix 20-1: Wilkes will have On Fire Baby baby ready to run.. 8th

6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Strike That 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Honest Mischief 2-1 WON-Up via DQ ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Mojo Man 10-1 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Mucho 8-1 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (.20 Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 I Hear You 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Sicilia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Sense You Left 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Flabbergasted 3-1 WON ($8.60)

8th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Interchangeable faves poised for big, early confrontation and Sconsin poised if pair burn each other out..

Most Likely: #7 Four Graces 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mundaye Call 6-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sconsin 6-1 WON ($16.40)

P5 Grid:

4: 1-3-6
5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7
8: 1-6-7-10

All A’s: 3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

P4 Grid:

5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7-8-10
8: 1-6-7-10

All A’s: 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

9th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sharing one of weekends most likely winners; 20-1 Lucky Betty is no worse than the other exotic candidates..

Most Likely: #3 Sharing 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Hendy Woods 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Lucky Betty 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 In Good Spirits 5-1 4th

10th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (2-day $2 P6, P4, P3, DD)

Top pair have clear edge on rest of the field..

Most Likely: #2 McKinzie 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 By My Standards 7-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #1 Silver Dust 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Owendale 6-1 2nd

2-day $2 P6 Grid:

FRI 10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
FRI 11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
FRI 12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 12: 10 (A), 8 (B), – (C)
SAT 13: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 14: 17 (A), 16-18 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x1x1 = 12 x $2 = $24

11th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

After conquering Midnight Bisou at the Spa, can Vexatious best Monomoy Girl here? Why not?

Best Value: #2 Vexatious 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #6 She’s a Julie 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Horologist 4-1 3rd

12th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, DD, Hi-5)

What had been billed as a Swiss Skydiver/Gamine duel is now clearly a 3 way battle with Speech unlikely to sneak up on anyone after several weeks of attention. Using all 3 in multis. Shedaresthedevil needs to take another step forward for laurels, but she does keep improving..

Most Likely: #5 Gamine 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Speech 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Swiss Skydiver 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Shedaresthedevil 20-1 WON ($32.20)
Hi-5 Play: #3 Donna Veloce 15-1 8th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)

All A’s: 3x1x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)
Backup: 3x1x2x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (1-5-7 with 3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $0.50 Pick-5 (5/3,5/6/8/7) Paid $1,413.70

P4 Grid:

9: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)

All A’s: 1x2x2x3 = 12 x $4 = $48
Backup: 1x2x2x1 = $4 (3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $1 Pick-4 (3,5/6/8/7) Paid $256.20

Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 1 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)

Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3×3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1×3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3×3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)

13th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T

Ageless Extravagant Kid the horse to beat, but there’s no margin for error and another baker’s half dozen eligible for laurels if it isn’t him..

Most Likely: #5 Extravagant Kid 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Carotari 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Chaps 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Wellabled 10-1 12th

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
13: 5-10-12 (A), 1-2-6-13-14 (B), (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Safe trips all; Let’s get lucky!
Steve