Got off to strong start at Keeneland Friday keying off another Wes Ward 2yo for an exotics sweep, but whiffed thereafter. Not only was the Kentucky action a leaky vessel, but my live play at Gulfstream was frustrating as well. Hope you did OK. Am en route back to Louisville after a nice week in Florida, and live coverage of Derby/Oaks 137 begins Monday from Churchill Downs. Meanwhile, a big Saturday is in the offing as the Lexington at KEE looks to perhaps add Silver Medallion to the Rose Run field and Gulfstream distributes its’ steady-built Rainbow 6 carryover pot. The pool should eclipse the $5,000,000 mark, and though the wager isn’t a smart play day in, day out, the mandatory payout makes this particular sequence well worth trying. Unfortunately, we will largely be going up against a number of syndicates that figure to cover many, many more multiples than lone wolf players can afford. But even small budget can take a quality swing at the challenging sequence, and my suggestion for $96 is below. Enjoy the day… Talk to you from the Downs Monday!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Eddie Set Go 10-1
Next Best: #8 Senor Dehere 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Wear the Crown 3-1
Super Add: #4 E Knows Why 4-1

7th: 81st Ben Ali (G3), 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

If Exhi is ready off the break, he is certainly the horse to beat, but Dean’s Kitten owns the recentness edge..

Best Value: #4 Dean’s Kitten 4-1
Next Best: #3 Exhi 6-5
Exotics Use: #1 Stay Put 4-1

8th: 15th Giant’s Causeway, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Typically brutal turf sprint..

Most Likely: #3 Rose Catherine 5-2
Best Value: #7 Holiday for Kitten 8-1
Next Best: #11 Stormy Publisher 3-1
Super Add: #9 Chantilly Nayla 10-1

9th: 30th Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Was greatly disappointed by Silver Medallion’s uninspired effort in the Santa Anita Derby and hardly am enthralled by the rush job turnaround to this, but he is the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #2 Silver Medallion 8-5
Best Value: #5 Taptowne 15-1
Next Best: #6 Casper’s Touch 3-1
Super Add: #1 Derby Kitten 4-1

10th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Special Action a half to KEE-loving Aikenite..

Most Likely: #4 Tale of the Dance 5-2
Next Best: #7 Special Action 5-1
Best Value: #12 Jo the Cat 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Saturday Dance 4-1
Hi-5 Play: #3 Gallant Pleasure 6-1

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 3-4-5-8
7: 3-4
8: 3-7-9-11
9: 2-5-6
10: 4

4x2x4x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4
8: 3-6-7-9-10-11
9: 1-2-5-6
10: 4-7

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Love the Serpe T2D and cutback player in this spot..

Best Value: #11 Rumbletown 10-1
Next Best: #13 Indian Fog 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 Marias Pass 4-1
Super Add: #6 Captain Crench 6-1

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Monitor SCR sheet carefully as Mustang Island uber-dangerous as draw-in..

Most Likely: #3 Walt’s Whiz 4-1
Best Value: #1 Danny’s Prayer 15-1
Next Best: #2 Reign of Kings 6-1
Super Add: #12 Knight Shot 8-1

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favored Zero Rate Policy may be leaned upon as single on many tix, but it doesn’t feel that simple, especially with crafty Fawkes (Vimana) and intriguing Servis (Christies) 2nd timers looming..

Most Likely: #10 Zero Rate Policy 8-5
Best Value: #7 Christiesborntorun 6-1
Next Best: #6 Vimana 5-1
Super Add: #9 Hebert Hall 4-1

10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Performing 7-2
Next Best: #2 Soveriegn Crisis 4-1
Best Value: #11 Ithinkihadthatone 6-1
Super Add: #8 More Is Better 10-1

11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Tough group, but those that are playing small tix may want to make a stand here with Albertrani entry stalwart..

Best Value: #1 Capital Market 6-1
Next Best: #3 Hariolus 4-1
Exotics Use: #12 Gathering Cloud 3-1
Super Add: #2 Catalan 12-1

12th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Would love to spread wider, but budget may hinder your anchor leg decisions..

Most Likely: #9 Diaper Dandy 5-2
Best Value: #11 Avorio 20-1
Next Best: #2 Chance Review 8-1
Exotics Use: #12 Sassidy 3-1

<$100 P6 Play:

7: 11-13
8: 1-2-3-4-9-12
9: 6-7-10
10: 2-9
11: 1-3-12
12: 2-9-11-12

2x6x3x2x3x4 = 864 x .10 = $86.40

<$75 P5 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4-9-12
9: 6-7-10
10: 2-9
11: 1-3
12: 9-11

6x3x2x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 6-7-10
10: 2-8-9-11
11: 1-3-12
12: 2-9-11-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

This is obviously a Saturday that needs little added fanfare from my keyboard. The coastal Racing Offices at Saratoga and Del Mar have authored outstanding Travers and Pacific Classic Day cards to kick off this big weekend, and horseplayers should relish the deep and challenging opportunities that abound as a result. Both meets wind down after these two days, so enjoy the great racing as we start the turn into the fall season…

Best of luck to everybody today!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Aspire 3-1: Loved strip as juvy.. 9th
Best Value: #1 Six Clicks 6-1: Stalk and go candidate.. 6th
Next Best: #9 Maximus Ruler 7-2: Possible lone speed on return.. 8th
Super Add: #10 Cocolero 4-1: Reunites with debut win pilot.. 9th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Missyoulikecrazy 6-1: Full sis to Pretty Prolific (#6 Ballerina).. 3rd
Next Best: #6 Blazing Along 5-2: One the well meant Baffert trio today.. 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Malibu Cougar 5-1: Problematic trip in sloppy day bow.. 8th
Super Add: #4 With the Current 6-1: Swam upstream with Malibu Cougar.. 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 6-7-8 with 6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Nolangrant’skitten 6-1: Better tote than beatable fave Forum.. 7th
Next Best: #10 Volker 6-1: Bred to enjoy move to sod, routes.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Tingaleo 10-1: Ward 2/6 stretching 2yo’s in grass bow.. 10th
Super Add: #11 Peb Hughes 8-1: Half to Cherokee Artist shopped for spot.. 8th

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As has been the theme all meet, these state bred turf routes have been furtive opportunities for scores, and betting The Noz at 3-1 isn’t the method by which you capitalize with about 8 or 9 here possible for honors..

Best Value: #9 Joey’s Chance 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Barrel of Love 10-1 3rd-DH
Exotics Use: #11 Dos Hombres 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Thunder Chief 8-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 9 with 3-11 with 1-3-4-5-6-11 with All (1x2x6x9 = 108 x .10 = $10.80)

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Free Entry 6-1: SW sib Thunders Dove was sharp 2yo.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Northern Hammer 15-1: Working well under radar; Tote bonus.. 10th
Next Best: #3 Uncle Mo 3-1: Repole/Pletcher.. Yawn.. WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #1 Research Report 4-1: Debut outfit but tough post.. 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7
3: 4-5-10
4: 3-9-11
5: 1-3-4-7

2x3x3x4 = $72

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Another opportunity to swing for the fences..

Best Value: #2 Neversaywhen 12-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Fourseventeen 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Chingachgook 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #7 Felice Di Notte 15-1 7th

7th: OC/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating near marathon on the Mellon Course with many ‘usual suspects’ for this kind of event (Mott, Clement, et al..), and many other enticing price candidates..

Best Value: #2 Insider Tip 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 More Than Willing 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 En Fuego 5-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Rescue Squad 8-1 6th

8th: 22nd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

No Phola or Maram for me, thanks; Far too many more eligible missys at better prices in here..

Most Likely: #8 Cherokee Queen 6-1: Leparoux back after botched MTH start.. 9th
Best Value: #2 Danzon 20-1: What’s not to like at that number? 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Keller 7-2: Picture of consistency.. 3rd
Super Add: #10 Meking Melody 6-1: Came back a different mare at 5.. 10th

<$100 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4-7
6: 2-5
7: 2-4-9-11
8: 1-2-8

4x2x3x4 = $96

9th: 8th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Beyondallboudarys 4-1: Shows steady growth under Amoss.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Rapport 3-1: Speed of the speed? Garcia owns both her wins.. WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #4 Sister Dawn 6-1: Ready to explode forward in first dirt try? 7th
Super Add: #9 Katy Now 7-2: Cuts back while reuniting with Velazquez.. 4th

10th: 32nd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Warbling 4-1: Compromised chances in HonMiss start.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pretty Prolific 12-1: 2nd start with McPeek who doffs hood (31%).. 7th
Next Best: #1 Rightly So 6-1: Seriously speedy T. Dutrow/Zayat guns from rails.. WON ($11.40)
Super Add: #8 First Passage 15-1: Problematic in/out type has punchers’ chance.. 5th

11th: 26th King’s Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Hard to believe that Discreetly Mine’s enormous Amsterdam effort won’t cause a regression here. May still have enough to best rivals, but worth taking slight cautionary position against..

Best Value: #6 Bank Merger 8-1: Spotted field lengths and rallied.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Discreetly Mine 6-5: Respect, but don’t fear.. WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Hurricane Ike 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Latigo Shore 20-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-6) Paid $14.90
$1 Trifecta (4-6-1) Paid $138.00
$1 Superfecta (4-6-1-2) Paid $563.50

12th: 141st Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD, Travers-Per. Ensign Double, Super)

Cannot recall a Travers more compelling from standpoint of openess. Plethora of options and mutuels to choose from when constructing plays, and no inclusion or exclusion would be questioned. Appears an honest pace will develop at the least, and runners inclined for mid-pack/stalk and finish trips make the most sense to me. Afleet Express, Friend or Foe and Trappe Shot flashed most upside of late-developing sophs, and are the core of my approach here with the Jerkens trainee most likely to run biggest race..

Most Likely: #7 AFLEET EXPRESS 6-1 WON ($16.00)
Best Value: #9 Friend or Foe 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Trappe Shot 4-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Fly Down 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 7 with 2-3-8-9-10 with 2-3-8-9-10 with ALL (1x5x4x8 = 160 x .10 = $16.00)

<$100 P4 Play:

9: 3-4-7-9
10: All
11: 2-4-6
12: 7

4x8x3x1 = $96 $1 Pick 4 (3-1-4-7) Paid $422.50

13th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Pretty Cozzy 9-2 WON ($8.90)
Best Value: #9 Moonlight Beauty 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Max’s Runner 4-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Ben’s Boots 9-2 3rd

Enjoyed first 2010 visit to Gulfstream Saturday and had good day with the exceedingly formful slate. DQ of Take the Points in the GP Turf H. was an unnecessary call that pretty well cheated Pletcher and Wolf-Lucarelli Starlight team out of a Gr. I for their high strung colt, but it did result in multiple hits of the chalky $54 P4 (Wildcat Frankie, Court Vision, Quality Road and Tottie). Along the way there were a couple of nice exotic hits, especially when Best Value 9-1 Sincero came through 2nd in a photo with Most Likely Boots Ahead and Next Best Sleepless Knight in the 7th for the $132 ($1) tri. Hope you did well!

Was sorry to lose the Santa Anita card of course, but the graded stakes are coming back this Saturday. Today’s action may be limited nearly exclusively to Hallandale with the Eastern Seaboard venues having already cancelled in advance of yet another heavy snow, and Arcadia potentially threatened due to more torrential rain.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Brown Dirt Cowboy 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Brassie Prince 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Prince Steve 4-1 10th
Super Add: #12 Silver Moose 10-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 5f-T @ 48 ft. (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Shabeeb 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Chapel of Love 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Whodidntknowthat 4-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Forest Tour 5-1 2nd

8th: S/ALW, 4+, 6,5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dramatic Trip 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Red Elephant 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Grand Bailout 8-1 6th

9th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T @ 48 ft. (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Paddy O’Prado 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Gravitas 15-1 12th
Next Best: #7 Moe Man 6-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Saint Jude 4-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-8-12
7: 4
8: 2-3-4
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8-11-12

4x1x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

Press:

6: 1
7: 4
8: 2-4
9: 1-6-7-12

1x1x2x4 = 8 x $3 = $24

by Steve Byk
first published on December 12, 2006

With the year end fast approaching, typically a time for reflection on the most positive recollections of the annum, it’s difficult to look back at horse racing in 2006 with much cheer. Recent headlines continue to dog the game we love and there is increasing cause for concern that there is little being done at the highest reaches of the sport to stem the tide of negativity.

(more…)

by Steve Byk
first published on November 4, 2006 

LOUISVILLE, KY — Breeders’ Cup, the day that racing likes to bill as its’ greatest, once again offered the stories that regularly thrill, and all too frequently chill, those that are captivated by the intoxicating game. Saturday at Churchill Downs, stunning upsets, heroic efforts and a tragic breakdown demonstrated all the passions and pathos and range of emotions that keep horse lovers coming back whether hardened punters or starry-eyed admirers of the pageant.

(more…)