2018-06-20 11:15:45

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

3 day $235k C/O starts here..

This is a treacherous sequence that ends with an insane 12 horse NY-MSW where 9 are separated by less than 2 lengths..

Daria's Angel drops for Diodoro and should get a gentler pace to stalk than the one she encountered last time. Formal Event strongest on paper form from highly unreliable barn. Stars Wilburn ran a race 2 back that puts her into a pay slot at a price. First Tomoe broke her maiden at GP last summer and has fishtailed since..

Most Likely: #9 Daria's Angel 9-2
Next Best: #4 Formal Event 5-2
Best Value: #7 Stars Wilburn 15-1
Exotics Use: #2 First Tomoe 7-2

5th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-IT (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Tricky group with surface switchers from Ja. Servis & Carlos Martin as well as Gullo & Bush firsters that sport intriguing pedigrees for assignment. Weaver's Be Gone Daddy logical fave dipping down after modest MSW tries over the winter..

Most Likely: #2 Be Gone Daddy 2-1
Next Best: #6 Freeload 6-1
Best Value: #7 Hustle N Heart 8-1
Exotics Use: #3 Uncle Pockets 9-2

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Hits keep coming with this N2L featuring droppers and a potentially hot pace scenario. Giant Boxer (6-1) goes turf to dirt while cutting back and dropping down below level of maiden win in January..

Best Value: #5 Giant Boxer 6-1
Next Best: #7 Tee Up 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Ribbonite 9-2
Super Add: #9 Pure Praise 6-1

7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Belgian & Mongo Nation are worthy faves, but Love Your Buttons menaces from off the pace..

Most Likely: #3 Belgian 6-5
Next Best: #4 Mongo Nation 2-1
Best Value: #2 Love Your Buttons 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Daddy's Home 4-1

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Pat Kelly better with old school 2nd/3rd off layoffs (13%/14%) and may be readying Fire Key for SAR, but 5yo mare perfectly suited to wire this if ready today. For Pick-X purposes, if it's not Fire Key, it could be any of the rest including unlisted Clement pair (Weekfair/Blessed Silence). Just one more element in maniacal skein..

Most Likely: #3 Fire Key 9-5
Best Value: #10 Wheatfield 15-1
Next Best: #9 Jc's Shooting Star 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Miss Gossip 12-1

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-T

So, you've made it this far in the P6, P5, P4, P3, Double even.. Now what? Fully inscrutable state bred set of 12 with 4 exiting the May 11th 8.5f-T event (Spa Jazz, Pirelli Tower, Ten Eyck, Zechariah), 3 coming from the May 12th 6f-T dash (Singapore Trader, Lem Me Tel Ya, Scatsuku) and 2 (Jimmy Jazz, Bad Guy) out of a May 26th turf route. More Than a Saint held own v. FG open company when last seen. Paynter's Prize makes his seasonal debut. Riendo is a first time starter..

Best Value: #11 Scatsuku 6-1
Next Best: #10 More Than a Saint 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Pirelli Tower 3-1
Super Add: #3 Singapore Trader 10-1

P6 Grid:

4: 4-9 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-5 (C)
5: 2-6 (A), 3-7 (B), 4-8 (C)
6: 5 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
7: 3-4 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 3 (A), - (B), 4-8-9-10 (C)
9: 10-11 (A), 4 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x2x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A's: 2x2x1x2x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

6: 5-7-8 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 2 (B), 6 (C)
8: 3 (A), - (B), 1-4-8-9-10 (C)
9: 3-4-10-11 (A), 2-6-8-9 (B), 1-5-7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x1x8 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve