2016-06-25 11:09:25

Talk often on ATR & Night School about recognizing momentum shifts and warning bells went off Wednesday and Thursday during strikes at the Belmont and Santa Anita P6 carryovers. Lost several photos and took more than a couple agonizing beats in final strides that dismantled most multi-race plays. On the plus side, finding horses like Forward Thinker, 11-1 beaten a half by Jonrah in the BEL 7th Wednesday, pays off long term. But I can sense a rough patch and will be a little cautious with the bankroll with big weekends and the whole summer season looming..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Captain Moss 2-1
Best Value: #1 Yowl 5-1
Next Best: #4 Verger 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Lotta Gold 20-1


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Realm 6-5
Best Value: #7 Mister Monolo 15-1
Next Best: #5 Caderyn 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Conviction 6-1


9th: 60th Bed O' Roses (G3), F&M-4+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 By the Moon 6-1
Next Best: #2 Wavell Avenue 6-5
Best Value: #6 Pangburn 12-1
Exotics Use: #3 Bar of Gold 4-1


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #5 The Undersheriff 3-1
Best Value: #7 Majority 6-1
Exotics Use: #12 Southern Union 5-1
Super Add: #8 Colonel Andy 20-1


P4 Grid:

7: 9 (A), 1-4 (B), 3 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 6 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3-4-6 (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 1-3-8-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P6, P3, DD)

More serious juveniles are starting to emerge as we approach Del Mar and Saratoga and this looks like a group that will need to be followed with O'Neill, Glatt, Baffert, Miller and Hollendorfer taking the wrappers off Dangerfield, Law Abiding Citizen, Klimt, Chasing Aces and Silver Assault respectively..

Best Value: #2 Dangerfield 6-1
Next Best: #5 Law Abidin Citizen 7-2
Exotics Use: #10 Silver Assault 5-2
Super Add: #6 Klimt 3-1


5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Jazzy Times 5-2
Next Best: #8 Who's Out 3-1
Best Value: #4 Westbrook 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Forest Blue 4-1


6th: CA-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Taman Guard 9-5
Next Best: #8 Family Code 3-1
Best Value: #4 Devils Informer 9-2
Exotics Use: #1 Hye I'm Jack 4-1


7th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Westfest is the first foal out of Joan Scott's G1 Madison winning Dr. Zic (!) and may be another late-developing type for Baffert who advanced Juddmonte's high upside Arrogate through allowance condition Friday..

Most Likely: #2 Westfest 5-2
Next Best: #7 Giant Expectations 9-5
Best Value: #8 Hollywood Strike 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Tiz No Bluff 6-1


8th: 65th Triple Bend (G1), 3+, 7f (DD)

Subtle Indian being billed as major wire threat, but Lord Nelson sure to be involved and Coastline adds hood for D'amato and should press from outside. Ambitious Brew, another who can prompt pace, gets Desormeaux and he and Marty Jones have won 3 of last 7 together at $18 each. Feel like an unexpectedly solid pace rewards Eurton's careful handling of Kobe's Back with his elusive G1..

Most Likely: #2 Kobe's Back 5-2
Next Best: #4 Lord Nelson 3-1
Best Value: #5 Ambitious Brew 8-1
Exotics Use: #6 Subtle Indian 3-1


9th: 77th Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

Another pace questionable event, but this looks more certain to lack lick with just Lieutenant Colonel and Melatonin out front. Gelded in January, Hollendorfer has moved Lieutenant Colonel up steadily since his 3yo season with Chad Brown and perhaps 10f has exactly the right timing for him. Not likely winner, but possible to take them deep into stretch. Melatonin gets first run..

Most Likely: #7 Melatonin 7-2
Best Value: #8 Imperative 6-1
Next Best: #6 Hoppertunity 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Hard Aces 6-1


P4 Grid:

6: 7-8 (A), 4 (B), 1-5-6 (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 8 (B), 5 (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 4-5-6-7-8 (C)
9: 7-8 (A), 2-3-4-6 (B), 1-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x6 = $54 ($28 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve