xpress bet beat the caveman

2014-09-13 10:40:24

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 27th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

An excellent wagering event even if 7-2 ML fave Annecdote runs her race first time NA (1st/Lasix) for Clement. Byrama (10-1), Devilish Love (6-1), Love Train (6-1), Medea (12-1), Julie's Love (10-1) and Baffle Me (5-1) all have credentials/styles that can impact this in any pay slot. Unless you're convinced Annecdote 'can't lose', feels like you'll need to spread to start the P4..

Best Value: #1 Byrama 10-1
Next Best: #9 Baffle Me 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Annecdote 7-2
Super Add: #7 Medea 12-1

8th: 20th Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Agree with Nick Tammaro's Friday ATR thoughts that Ball Dancing -- out of the Group 1 Prix de Diane -- has potential to excel in this solid group at a decent price (for a Chad Brown import). Xcellence, Brown's other Euro-soph, has now been beaten twice in the US and had zero excuses upstate when failing to get the money in the Lake Placid after putting her head in front late. Plenty of obvious candidates in good form (Sea Queen, A Little Bit Sassy, Daring Dancer) are signed on here, but Miss Besilu (10-1) offers bonus pricing returning the grass after a summer of modest main track success including an Alabama board hit. Walk Close (15-1) looks like the type who can clunk up for 3rd or 4th. Mott and Clement at 10-1 and 15-1 respectively? Yes please..

Most Likely: #10 Ball Dancing 5-1
Next Best: #1 Xcellence 3-1
Best Value: #3 Miss Besilu 10-1
Exotics Use: #4 Walk Close 15-1

9th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (DD)

Some nice pedigrees here. Pletcher's Daredevil (More Than Ready) a half to Albertus Maximus (Albert the Great); Donk's Mandolin Wins (Bluegrass Cat) half to Fiftyshadesofhay (Pulpit); Wild Dynaformer (Dynaformer) a half to full Pulpit brothers Pyro and Longview Drive. Hot 2yo barns send Bow Tie Boss (Jerkens) and Mizumi (Asmussen). Orseno's 2nd out Breezy My Way exits the 8/9 Spa MSW that produced Requite-Two Weeks Off-Da Jenius. Tricky read on this potentially important set..

Most Likely: #4 Daredevil 5-2
Next Best: #1 Bow Tie Boss 6-1
Best Value: #6 Breezy My Way 20-1
Exotics Use: #3 Mandolin Wins 15-1

10th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #4 Mobridge 9-2
Next Best: #10 Sneaky Kitten 4-1
Best Value: #7 Analysis 15-1
Exotics Use: #12 Hurry Up Alan 6-1
Super Add: #1 Status of Forces 50-1

$75 P4 Grid/Plays:

7: 1-6-9 (A), 3-4-7 (B), 2-5-8 (C)
8: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-6-8-9 (C)
9: 4 (A), 1 (B), 2-3-5-6-7-8-9 (C)
10: 4 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-8-12 (C)

Simple A/B's: 6x2x2x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)

Option with single of Daredevil in 9th and using 6 in 10th:

7: 1-3-4-6-7-9
8: 1-10
9: 4
10: 1-4-7-8-10-12

6x2x1x6 = $72 ($36 for .50)

Full A/B/C's: 11 plays = $75

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 4 with 4 - $3.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4,7 with 1,10 with 4 with 4 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 1 with 4 - $3.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 4 with 7,10 - $6.00

A's with Two B's

5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4,7 with 1,10 with 1 with 4 - $3.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4,7 with 1,10 with 4 with 7,10 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 1 with 7,10 - $6.00

A's with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 2,5,8 with 1,10 with 4 with 4 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 4 with 4 - $12.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9 with 4 - $21.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 4 with 1,8,12 - $9.00

Total: $75.00

Good luck!
Steve