xpress bet

2015-07-26 10:59:03

First Saturday of the Saratoga season another smash hit with 30k+ in attendance and more than $23MM bet on a perfect afternoon. Other than a pair of maddening steward decisions and my inability to get anything going at the windows through the first 21 events, activity around the Old Spa basically has been as good to the start of the meet as possible.

The stewards call in the Sanford was a difficult one, with Magna Light reacting to the left hand whip of Ortiz and veering out before drifting back in and troubling Percolator enough to cost him 2nd. OK.. To the letter of the law, you cost a horse a placing, you have to come down. However, this was one of those instances where placing the horse that was clearly best in the race third unjustly costs the connections and the bettors. To my way of thinking, fining and benching Jose Ortiz for his ridiculous left hand whipping that caused the 'dangerous play' is the more prudent avenue. In fact, with his reaction a few strides earlier, Magna Light had warned Ortiz that he didn't appreciate the left hand whack before he launched into the trio of swats that generated the right handed turn. But as discussed with Rich Migliore on ATR last week, administering lessons to the jocks on an ongoing basis does not appear to be something the New York stewards have any interest in doing. (As a sidenote that has slipped attention, the stewards only called for an inquiry after an objection had been lodged by Kendrick Carmouche.)

Similarly in Friday's 2nd, Ortiz was at the heart of another circumstance where policing the pilots was shown to have low priority. In the NY-bred baby race, Ortiz and Lemon Liquor bullied their way through a modest seem and a dogged Here Comes Rosie who was knocked a path or so to her right. Lemon Liquor went on her way while Manny Franco gathered Here Comes Rosie back into stride and back after the new leader. If the stewards want to get the jocks to stop herding and creating unnecessarily dangerous circumstances out there, then they should be disqualifying horses in situations like this one.

I'll freely add the proviso here that I tabbed and bet Here Comes Rosie. I was uninvolved financially in the Sanford outcome, but anyone who has heard me talk about these kinds of events knows I virtually never gripe about stewards calls having accepted a questionable one that cost me $20k+ in a Del Mar P6 a couple summers ago.

Meanwhile, Here Comes Rosie or no Here Comes Rosie, have had a brutal start to the session finding it impossible to get anything going on the multi-race front with just a third of the winners even identified in the tabs over these first 2 days. Obviously the going has been tough on a widespread basis with a two day carryover of $158k into Sunday. Today may not offer the best chance to get the bankroll into gear either though, with some overnight rain and a threatening forecast of thunderstorms. But, we'll press on with a terrific Coaching Club American Oaks as the day's feature feature!


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Carrumba 6-5
Next Best: #1 Theophilia 5-1
Best Value: #5 Que Chulo 8-1
Exotics Use: #2 Picture Day 5-2


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ack Naughty 7-5
Best Value: #7 Amazing Anne 6-1
Next Best: #2 Skinner Box 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Firm and Gracious 50-1

OFF THE TURF: 11-3-4-12


3rd: CLM, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Copernicus 6-1
Next Best: #4 Bessie's Boy 9-5
Exotics Use: #2 Power Nap 3-1
Super Add: #1 False Positive 10-1


4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Women Win 5-2
Next Best: #7 First Service 7-2
Best Value: #2 Foxy Posse 8-1
Exotics Use: #6 Lil Renegade 8-1


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Ready for Summer 3-1
Next Best: #5 Sweet Nkosi 8-1
Best Value: #8 Kids Tuition 12-1
Exotics Use: #6 Magsamelia 5-1

OFF THE TURF: 4-10-8


P5 Grid:

1: 6 (A), 1 (B), 2-5 (C)
2: 8 (A), 7 (B), 1-2-4-10 (C)
3: 6 (A), 2-4 (B), 1-7 (C)
4: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-4 (C)
5: 2-5 (A), 6-8 (B), 3-7 (C)


P4 Grid:

2: 8 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-4-10 (C)
3: 6 (A), 2-4 (B), 1-7 (C)
4: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-4 (C)
5: 2-5 (A), 6-8 (B), 3-7 (C)


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$158k DBL P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #2 Lotta Lolly 6-1
Next Best: #8 Crystal Wave 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Rebelle 12-1
Super Add: #3 Deedeezee 4-1


7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Isn'tlovejustgrand 8-1
Next Best: #5 Saratoga Dreamer 3-1
Exotics Use: #11 Saltine Warrior 12-1
Super Add: #12 Latigo Trail 10-1

OFF THE TURF: 6-2-5


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Unbridled Juan 2-1
Next Best: #2 Financial Modeling 6-1
Best Value: #9 Rare Eagle 10-1
Exotics Use: #11 Lunar Rover 5-1


9th: MSW, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Tweet Kitten 4-1
Next Best: #1 (POE) Good Response 3-1
Exotics Use: #10 Andalusite 7-2
Super Use: #3 Tobias 10-1

OFF THE TURF: 1-4-7


10th: 99th Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Curalina 3-1
Best Value: #6 Keen Pauline 4-1
Next Best: #8 I'm a Chatterbox 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Include Betty 7-2


11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #10 Mr Maybe 8-1
Next Best: #3 Reach for a Kitten 5-1
Exotics Use: #9 Mexican Groove 8-1
Super Add: #8 Stevie's Moonshot 8-1


P6 Grid:

6: 2 (A), 8 (B), 1-3-7 (C)
7: 5-10 (A), 11-12 (B), 1-4 (C)
8: 3 (A), 2 (B), 1-6-9-11 (C)
9: 1-8 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
10: 3 (A), - (B), 5-6-8 (C)
11: 10 (A), 3 (B), 2-8-9 (C)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3 (A), 9-11 (B), 1-6 (C)
9: 1-8 (A), 10 (B), 2-3-11 (C)
10: 3 (A), 6 (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 10 (A), 3-9 (B), 2-8 (C)


Good luck!
Steve