Archive for the '2016' Category

Santa Anita marks racing’s biggest opener

Monday, December 26th, 2016

Hope everyone enjoyed their Christmas. ‘Boxing Day’ once again brings forth one of racing’s most anticipated openings, as Santa Anita kicks off the 2017 Winter Meet..

If you haven’t already, send your sleeping pet photo or betting story to Hammer at santaanitacalendar@yahoo.com. Today is the last ‘post mark’ opportunity..

SANTA ANITA ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/S-ALW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Many here have toiled under this condition making Rcatcanscat a seemingly worthy favorite after being DQ’d in second start and then keeping diploma when raised in class by Hendricks. A number of turnbacks signed on, 5 of the 9 in fact, so pace may be quicker than it looks at first glance..

Most Likely: #3 Rcatcanscat 7-2 5th
Next Best: #8 Rally Back 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Cioppino Pasadino 6-1 WON ($11.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Perfect Cocktail 5-2 4th

2nd: Cal-MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Tricky group featuring first time starters, droppers from MSW company, turf/dirt and cutback movers..

Most Likely: #2 Sawbuck 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 He’s All That 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Classic Ruler 3-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Burnt Cognac 5-2 4th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

As discussed on ATR, first important MDN group of the meet with Baffert seemingly bringing howitzers to a gun fight. First Degree Burn already got run at this trip downstate and looks to be moving forward out of it. Third that day behind stablemate Beach Bum and next out winner Royal Mo, $170k LaPenta purchase draws well for stalk and go journey. $1,000,000 Dabster and $600k Bronze Age the other Baffert options, while O’Neill’s So Conflated (5-1) and Drysdale’s Awesome Heights (20-1) are 2nd timers that provide upside/value..

Most Likely: #10 First Degree Burn 4-1 9th
Next Best: #2 So Conflated 5-1 WON ($14.80)-Up Via DQ
Best Value: #11 Eleuthros 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Dabster 7-2 4th-DQ’d from WIN

4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Prime Attraction SCR’D broke maiden on stretchout to 1m and now adds another panel while going first turf. Family drips with class with dam a half to Vindication/full to Scipion, while offering no shortage of lawn charms; lightly-raced soph a prime key play v. neutral-stuck nondescript group..

Best Value: #4 PRIME ATTRACTION SCR
Most Likely: #2 Champagne Charley 9-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Dynamic Scoring 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Buster Douglas 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Rye Patch 5-1 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Baby girls this time and hard to arguer with obvious run-early offerings from Baffert, Sadler/SCR’D, Miller & Dorf..

Most Likely: #5 Beautiful Princess 7-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Ruby Trust 6-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #8 Princess Julia 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Moon Kitty 4-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

1: 3-8 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
2: 2-4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
3: 10 (A), – (B), 2-6-9-11 (C)
4: 2-10 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
5: 5-9 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x4x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x3x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

2: 2-4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
3: 10 (A), – (B), 2-6-9-11 (C)
4: 1-2-3-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 5-9 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 3x1x4x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

6th: 50th San Simeon (G3), 3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Typically terrific downhill event with some specialists lined up including Eurton returnee Betty’s Bambino, 6/5-0-1 this course including this race when Daytona on Opening Day ’14..

Best Value: #11 Betty’s Bambino 6-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #12 Holy Lute 9-2 11th
Exotics Use: #9 He Will 6-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Ohio 6-1 7th

7th: 44th La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

As with the Malibu, this edition a bit of a curiosity with group featuring but 1 graded stake win (Lightstream’s Raven Run). Lynch miss certainly the class of the field and owns positive style for set that looks speed-laden. That said, Finley’sluckycharm comes in hot for Calhoun while Constellation may be coming around for Roth’s LNJ Foxwoods in barn of Hollendorfer. Perfect Pic will float up from 6-1 ML and has upside stalking from outside for Cassidy..

Most Likely: #2 Lightstream 2-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Constellation 6-1 WON ($27.00)
Next Best: #3 Finley’sluckycharm 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Perfect Pic 6-1 6th

8th: 65th Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD)

SCR of Navy Hymm a huge issue for those looking to close (Mind Your Biscuits, Mor Spirit) in to the pace, as Sharp Azteca could get away easy early. Ten Blessings looks like the Baffert who has the best chance to run down the Navarro colt from just in behind, especially if stablemate Jazzy Times engages the leader..

Most Likely: #4 Ten Blessings 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Mind Your Biscuits 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #8 Mor Spirit 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Sharp Azteca 3-1 2nd

9th: 17th Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Sure looks like there are enough pace-interested parties involved here to guarantee an opportunity for all styles to get in a run. Wet weather led up to opening day, so turf should be absolutely perfect and late run from Blackout under course-familiar Leparoux can pass them all at bonus tote..

Best Value: #9 Blackout 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Conquest Enforcer 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Isotherm 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Frank Conversation 4-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Blackjackcat 4-1 5th

All Stakes P4 Grid:

6: 11-12 (A), 5-9 (B), 6-7 (C)
7: 2-3-4 (A), – (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 2-4 (A), 7-8 (B), 5-6-9 (C)
9: 4-9 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-3-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 Pick-4 (11/4/2/4,5) Paid $1,513.20 ($756.60 for .50)

G1 Futurity/Starlet & C/O at Los Al

Saturday, December 10th, 2016

LOS ALAMITOS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$40k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Spicy Blond 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Zenita 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Herunbridledpower 5-2 WON ($7.80)

5th: Cal-OC/N$Y, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Desert Thief 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Filly On Fire 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Zuzu’s Petals 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #1 Tiz Makin Memories 6-1 5th

6th: Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Mastery 1-2 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #1 Dangerfield 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Bobby Abu Dhabi 4-1 4th

7th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Divine Spark 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Adios Cali 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #3 Crowded Way 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Proper Drink Gate SCR

8th: Starlet (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 American Gal 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tapped 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Berned 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Union Strike 7-2 5th

9th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo, 5.5f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Yodelers Way 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #1 Downside Up 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 We Go Now 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Malusita Tower 20-1 10th
Hi-5 Play: #4 Proud Singer 8-1 4th

P6 Grid:

4: 4-5 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
5: 6-7 (A), 4 (B), 1-3 (C)
6: 3 (A), – (B), 1-2-4 (C)
7: 2 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 3-7 (A), 2-9 (B), 6-8 (C)
9: 1-2-5 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x1x4x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 2x2x1x1x2x3 = 24 x $2 = $48

P4 Grid:

6: 1-3 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
7: 2 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 3-7-9 (A), 2-6-8 (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 1-2-5 (A), – (B), 4-6-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x1x3x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

AQU C/O may hit $3MM+

Friday, December 9th, 2016

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$837,531 C/O starts here..

Blinker boosts from several here can pace enough to compromise Street Lord and Storm Pursuit in favor of the Finger Lakes invaders..

Most Likely: #5 Fullfaithandcredit 5-2 2d
Best Value: #6 Sing the Dream 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Street Lord 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Storm Pursuit 2-1 WON ($4.60)

4th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Quanique 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Hey Lady 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Bow Town Cat 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Muselet 5-2 4th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Not a lot of obvious pace on, making the routing speed types stand out..

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Zabaione 4-1 9th/10th
Best Value: #10 Just Afleet 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Chilly Bon Bon 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Ro Bear 6-1 4th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Smile Big had her diploma taken away last month. Her good dirt races gets it back here..

Most Likely: #6 Smile Big 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #7 Ice Palace 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Kitai 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Saratiago 12-1 4th

7th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-70y (DD)

Stakes quality field..

Most Likely: #7 Voluntario 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Muqtaser 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Send It In 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Fabulous Kid 4-1 4th

8th: MCLM/$40k, 2yo, 8.5f

Most Likely: #7 Samurai Warrior 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Radial Flyer 20-1 DNF-Lost rider
Next Best: #5 Leftovers 8-1 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #1 Seven East SCR

P6 Grid:

3: 5-6 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-7 (C)
4: 1-2 (A), 4-6 (B), 3-5 (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 5 (B), 3-6-9 (C)
6: 6-7 (A), – (B), 4 (C)
7: 7 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
8: 7 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x2x1x1 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x1x1 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

5: 1-5-10 (A), 3-6-9 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
6: 6-7 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 5 (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Matriarch, C/O to close DMR

Sunday, December 4th, 2016

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (p6, P3, DD)

$89k Must Pay P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Late ‘n Left 5-2
Next Best: #5 Papa Mambo 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Reckless Charm 4-1

5th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Wildly competitive group. Almost no way to eliminate candidates. Pick and pray..

Most Likely: #8 Sutton’s Smile 9-2
Best Value: #5 Girl Downstairs 12-1
Next Best: #12 Lady Pamela 7-2
Exotics Use: #7 Mrs. Norris 8-1

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Pragmatical 3-1
Next Best: #3 Buzzer Beater 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Tuscany Beauty 9-5
Super Add: #5 Rockantheros 10-1

7th: 35th Matriarch (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Miss Temple City the filly to beat and Annals of Time win from #11 Saturday a blueprint for those concerned by wide post. Time and Motion a tactical whisker away from arriving here on 6 race win skein. Chad Brown runners all rock solid again today..

Most Likely: #12 Miss Temple City 3-1
Next Best: #11 Time and Motion 5-1
Best Value: #6 Mexican Gold 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Roca Rojo 7-2

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Jazzy Times another player who ran well, career best in fact, at Oceanside. Drops in from stakes placements while prepping for Malibu..

Most Likely: #5 Jazzy Times 5-2
Next Best: #2 Who’s Out 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 The Gomper 7-2
Super Add: #1 St. Joe Bay 4-1

9th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Kona Dreams 5-2
Best Value: #9 Bobby G 5-1
Next Best: #13 (AE) Soglio 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Marchtothemusic 5-1
Super Add: #10 I’m Living Proof 10-1
Hi-5 Play: #3 Glacier 4-1

P6 Grid:

4: 4-5 (A), 5 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
5: 5-8 (A), 12 (B), 6-7-9 (C)
6: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 12 (A), – (B), 6-7-11 (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 1-2-6 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), 5-13 (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x1x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 2x2x2x1x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

6: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 6-9-11 (A), 4-8-7 (B), 1 (C)
8: 5 (A), 2 (B), 1-6 (C)
9: 1-9-13 (A), 3-5-10 (B), 6-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve

HOL Derby the Saturday highlight

Saturday, December 3rd, 2016

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/ALW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Whitmore returns to races and is using this as tightener toward Oaklawn season assignments. Tricky group to read with quixotically campaigned Summer Revolution SCR’D involved..

Best Value: #7 Eye Luv Lulu
Next Best: #3 Will Did It
Exotics Use: #1 Whitmore

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Runaway Posse 8-1
Next Best: #3 Ross J Dawg 8-1
Exotics Use: #8 Bibbo 30-1
Super Add: #2 Tricked Up 3-1

8th: 70th Go For Wand (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wonder Gal 9-5
Next Best: #3 Bar of Gold 8-5
Best Value: #1 Camille Claudel 20-1
Exotics Use: #7 High Ridge Road 6-1

9th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF

Off the turf and other than Lover’s Key SCR’D, there is barely a filly in here that gives any indication she can stand up on dirt..

Best Value: #3 Grand Banks: Taking shot with blinks added to filly out of Orb’s sister..
Next Best: #2 Cha Cha Heels
Exotics Use: #1 Empty House
Super Add: #11 Emiliana’s Hope

P4 Grid:

6: 3-7 (A), 1-2-5-6 (B), – (C)
7: 2-3-4-8 (A), – (B), 1-6-10 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), – (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), 1 (B), 4-6-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x4x2x2 = $32 ($16 for .50)

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 34th Bayakoa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Feels like the coming out party for Vale Dori with lone issue how much pace pressure materializes via Gloryzapper and Desert Madam..

Most Likely: #5 Vale Dori 7-5
Next Best: #3 Gloryzapper 3-1
Best Value: #8 Desert Madam 12-1
Exotics Use: #6 Wild At Heart 5-1

7th: 75th Hollywood Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Typically terrific edition of this late season standard with Eastern invaders from Brown, Motion, Weaver and McGaughey looking to have edge over locals. Isotherm flashed talent as a 2yo and then missed prime portion of campaign with minor issues. Arrived early to acclimate, has versatile style and turn of foot and can light up the board on best..

Best Value: #6 Isotherm 12-1
Next Best: #1 Beach Patrol 9-2
Exotics Use: #2 Camelot Kitten 7-2
Super Add: #11 Annals of Time 6-1

8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (DD)

As discussed with Jon White Friday, deep group of juvy colts that has look of important race. Both Bafferts and both D’amatos are major players and Hollendorfer’s Sheer Flattery, bested by Mastery last time, has big experience edge on the firsters..

Most Likely: #4 Sheer Flattery 3-1
Best Value: #12 American Anthem 9-2
Next Best: #11 Iliad 7-2
Exotics Use: #7 City Storm 15-1

9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Little Scotty 5-1
Next Best: #3 Tribal Fighter 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Champagne Charley 8-1
Super Add: #4 American League 6-1
Hi-5 Play: #10 Top of the Game 12-1

P4 Grid:

6: 3-5 (A), – (B), 6-8 (C)
7: 1-2-6-11 (A), 3-5-7-8 (B), 4-9-10-12 (C)
8: 4 (A), 11-12 (B), 3-7-13 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), 1-4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x8x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x4x1x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve