8/25: Saratoga (149th Travers Day)
Saturday, August 25th, 2018SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Larry Best’s $850k Greyes Creek debuts here from tricky rail, but Norm Casse’s Bird baby for Whitney looks to have breakaway speed. Fixedincome Larry half Puttheglassdown can improve 2nd out off solid bow. Dallas Stewart brings LA-bred Classy John in from the Spectrum where he zipped in sub :59 for first start..
Best Value: #2 Mischievous Bird 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Greyes Creek 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Puttheglassdown 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Classy John 8-1 WON ($26.40)
2nd: NY-ALW/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Wildly competitive NY turf ALW, where boxcar mutuels live.. Pecking order: 5-1-7-9-3-4-2-10-12-8-6-11..
Most Likely: #5 Collective Effort 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Carthon 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Mango M 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Shiraz 8-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Blame the Thief 30-1 10th
3rd: ALW/C, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Good group with SCRof Tommy T taking lick out of the already-modest pace scenario..
Best Value: #7 Cerretalto 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Silver Dust SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Souper Catch 4-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Hollywood Star 6-1 5th
4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Six of the 10 are stretching out from sprints, which should provide for a prompted pace scenario..
Best Value: #4 Salvator Mundi 10-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Digital Footprint 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Social Paranoia 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Moon Colony 7-2 4th
5th: Opt CLM/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #1 Tathqeef 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Bird’s Eye View 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Scholar Athlete 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Mr Maybe 20-1 5th
P5 Grid:
1: 1-2 (A), 3-5-6 (B), – (C)
2: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), 3-4-9 (C)
3: 7-8 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
4: 3-4 (A), – (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 1-2 (A), 7 (B), 3-4-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x3x2x2x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
P4 Grid:
2: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), 3-4-9 (C)
3: 7-8 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-3-5 (C)
4: 3-4 (A), 7-9 (B), – (C)
5: 1-2-7 (A), – (B), 3-4-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
6th: 34th Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)
Obviously, if Promises Fulfilled maintains the Amsterdam form he will be very difficult to beat. And really, who is going to run with him early? Firenze Fire, Still Having Fun and Engage are the next set of players with Telekinesis, Seven Trumpets and interesting turf emigre Gidu the puncher’s chance longshots..
Most Likely: #1 Promises Fulfilled 8-5 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #8 Firenze Fire 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Still Having Fun 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Engage 4-1 4th
7th: 69th Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (NYRA Bets P5, P3, DD)
Wow Cat had to need the Shuvee as a tightener being away over 6 months and can win today..
Best Value: #4 Wow Cat 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Elate 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Abel Tasman 6-5 WON ($3.50)
Super Add: #5 Farrell 6-1 5th
8th: 40th Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
As usual, a great lineup of hard-hitting F&M’s that had a collective 7f record of 38/15-8-6 (before the SCR of Highway Star). Marley’s Freedom looks to pick up on an old West Coast invasion theme for this race hearkening back to Intangaroo & Maryfield..
Most Likely: #7 MARLEY’S FREEDOM 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #6 Lewis Bay 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Union Strike 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Finley’sluckycharm 3-1 7th
9th: 39th Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)
City of Light draws perfectly and can stalk or go as needed..
Most Likely: #8 City of Light 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Limousine Liberal 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 No Dozing 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 C Z Rocket 9-2 4th
10th: 44th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Feels like there will be some actual pace on here and with added ground, that gives Castellano and Sadler’s Joy their best chance. Would be thrilled for The Youngs and Highland Sky to win a race like this..
Most Likely: #10 Sadler’s Joy 7-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Channel Maker 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Highland Sky 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Funtastic 9-2 7th
11th: 149th Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)
We didn’t need Justify to make for a very entertaining Travers. There’s Queen’s Plate winning filly Wonder Gadot (whose last fast dirt effort contends), turfy players in Catholic Boy & Mendelssohn, 4 Triple Crown event money finishers in Gronkowski, Bravazo, Good Magic and Tenfold and GSW’s Vino Rosso and King Zachary too. Travers one of the few major prizes Team Asmussen yet to claim and steady-developer Tenfold the right price key here in a Curlin-sired trifecta..
Most Likely: #10 Tenfold 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Good Magic 2-1 10th
Best Value: #7 King Zachary 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bravazo 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Gronkowski 4-1 9th
P5 Grid:
7: 1-4-6 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
8: 7(A), – (B), 5-6-8
9: 8 (A), – (B), 1-5-6 (C)
10: 3-5-7-10 (A), 2-4-6-9 (B), 1-8 (C)
11: 7-9-10 (A), 3-4-11(B), 2-5-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x1x1x8x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
P4 Grid:
8: 7(A), – (B), 5-6-8
9: 8 (A), – (B), 1-5-6 (C)
10: 3-5-7-10 (A), 2-4-6-9 (B), 1-8 (C)
11: 4-7-9-10 (A), 2-3-5-11(B), 1-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x1x8x8 = $64 ($32 for .50)
All A’s: 1x1x4x3 = $12 ($6 for .50)
12th: 30th Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)
Best Value: #3 Proctor’s Ledge 4-1 6th
Next Best: #1 A Raving Beauty 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Off Limits 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Quidura 4-1 WON ($9.50)
13th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 1m-IT
Most Likely: #5 Azzedine 2-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Victor Lounge 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Proximate to Power 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Wisely 5-1 6th
P4 Grid:
10: 3-5-7-10 (A), 4-9 (B), 2-6-8 (C)
11: 7-9-10 (A), 3-4-11(B), 2-5-8 (C)
12: 1-3 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
13: 5-9 (A), – (B), 2-3-10-11(C)
Simple (A+B): 6x6x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 4x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24