I hope everyone is enjoying the holidays and had a successful year playing the horses. I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that for those of us that were too young to appreciate the remarkable Triple Crown exploits of the 70’s, 2015 was as dramatic, historic and singularly enjoyable season as we’ve experienced. It was a special privilege to be in position to try and chronicle it for ATR listeners and I’m not sure how easy it will be to surpass the year’s highlights. My position is that the game remains far more vital and vibrant than its’ loudest critics want you to believe and I think this past year went a long way towards confirming that. Let’s build on these past 12 months and make 2016 another big success. Warm wishes to Derby Trailers, ATR listeners, Dee Tee partners, industry stakeholders and their families for a bountiful New Year filled with health and contentment..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Superbly matched set of state bred fillies. Pace should be honest or more..

Best Value: #7 Regina Christina 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Champagne Ruby 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Irish Whisper 2-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Touching My Toes 5-2 3rd

7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Another fun, restricted company assembly. Geaux Mets has won for everybody that saddles and may be poised to keep rolling in 2nd start for Rudy..

Best Value: #11 Geaux Mets 5-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Gypsum Johnny 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Commandante 10-1 4th
Super Add: #12 Mighty Zealous 20-1 5th

8th: 37th Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Terrific cast for this final stake of ’15 in NY including the ’15 winner Big Business and ’13 hero Saratoga Snacks. (And as it happens, ’14 Robb victor Commandante runs in the 7th!). With Snacks and Big Business, Good Luck Gus the only other p[articipant with a win over the Inner Track. Ostrolenka is the pacesetter here with Snacks likely setting up shop just off his flank with Angel Arroyo back aboard. Big Business will visit the lead pair first in the stretch with Empire Dreams arriving later. Really none of these 8 signed on can be easily eliminated..

Best Value: #8 Big Business 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Saratoga Snacks 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Empire Dreams 5-2 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #4 Ostrolenka 6-1 8th

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m

No shortage of pace involved here..

Best Value: #4 Best Play 10-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #7 Inca Saint 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Special Agent 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Cosmic Coincidence 4-1 6th

P4 Grid:

6: 1-7 (A), 3-4 (B), 5-8 (C)
7: 11 (A), 1-9 (B), 3-4-5-12 (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3-6-7 (C)
9: 4 (A), 5-7 (B), 8-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $62 (With $1 All A’s Play)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1/2,4,8,11/1/4) Paid $125.75

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Crazily well-matched group with entire field only a length apart on figs..

Most Likely: #6 Ice Cream Truck 7-2 –
Best Value: #3 Muchos Besos 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Noble Kent 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Carlsbad Mountain 3-1 2nd

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Some class to this set with 7 trying 9f for the first time and the other three unsuccessful in their prior attempts at the trip..

Most Likely: #4 Captain Tim 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Little Curlin 6-1 WON ($23.20)
Next Best: #5 Tribal Jewel 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Grazen Sky 4-1 2nd

7th: 21st Eddie Logan, 2yo, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Path of David 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #2 Arabian Leopard 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Trust Your Gut 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Imperious One 5-1 2nd

8th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

After 3 tricky events, expect many multi-race plays to lean heavily on D’Amato and Adair..

Most Likely: #9 Adair 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Xerxes 8-1 WON ($16.80)
Next Best: #4 Spirit World 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #5 Captain Carchy 4-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Financial 6-1 –

P4 Grid:

5: 3-6 (A), 2-5 (B), 1-4-7 (C)
6: 3-4 (A), 5-8 (B), 6-9 (C)
7: 7 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-9 (C)
8: 9 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $55 (With $1 All A’s Play)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/3/7,11/6) Paid $888.30

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Slightly tricky opener to $80k C/O sequence which centers around 50% Baffert-Shah dropper Exposure SCR’D who may get company on the front end. Can’t fault those siding with; Can’t fault those standing against..

Most Likely: #2 My Silver Cat 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #4 Secret Appeal 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Missy Mouse 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Racing for Chasen 10-1 4th

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Will try to tiptoe through leg with top tabs Kadesha and Shysheisnot, but several other class droppers rate a look including Petey pacesetter Odisseia, Gaines nibbler Sister of Mercy, invading Jacobson NY-bred Upstate Bird and closing Housemaker from Steady Eddie Truman..

Most Likely: #2 Kadesha 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Shysheisnot 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Sister of Mercy 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Housemaker 9-2 9th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Can’t assume last out mile winner Formally Wild wires this group given sprint speed presence of Triunfo (especially) and Saint Prado (possibly). Other turnbacks (1-2-6) and class drops (5-8) make this cheap affair plenty treacherous..

Most Likely: #1 Carlot Cowboy 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #3 Formally Wild 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Ultimate Luck 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Pat the Bear 4-1 8th

6th: 12th Kalookan Queen, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

There’s a lot of speed lining up here and favored Sunday Rules doesn’t ‘need’ the lead. Baltas closer Kiss at Midnight feels dangerous and well-suited for opportunity to pick them up late..

Best Value: #1 Kiss at Midnight 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sunday Rules 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Tara’s Tango 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Dancingalltheway 4-1 8th

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Stakes quality ALW field and though thoroughly competitive, inclined to stand with Spirit of Ten. Cal bred started improving when nabbed by Glatt and has continued forward with D’Amato committing her to turf full time. Should sit behind speed to her right and gets first run at nice number..

Most Likely: #7 Spirit of Ten 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Achiever’s Legacy 12-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Causeway Carolyn 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Paulina’s Love 3-1 WON ($4.00)

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Creeme Run Wild 7-2 6th
Next Best: #1 She’s a Warrior 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Dreamarcher 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Award It 4-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Deeds Not Words 12-1 5th

P6 Grid:

3: 2 (A), 4-5 (B), 1-3-7 (C)
4: 2 (A), 8 (B), 3-5-6-7 (C)
5: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-6-9 (C)
6: 1 (A), 5 (B), 2 (C)
7: 7 (A), – (B), 4-10 (C)
8: 5 (A), 1 (B), 3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
Full (A/B/C): $170

P4 Grid:

5: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-6-9 (C)
6: 1-5 (A), 2 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
7: 7-10 (A), 4-8 (B), 3 (C)
8: 5 (A), 1-9 (B), 3-4-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x $0.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $80

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Not sure why Baltas firster Asian’s Way (3-1) demands respect here. Trappe Shot less than ordinary with debuting types and family offers little to suggest precociousness. If you like her, you’re relying strictly on Baltas ability to win without supporting evidence as even the workout notes from Harrington are unenthusiastic..

Most Likely: #9 Quigley’s Corner 8-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Everqueen 20-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Angel Lane 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Asian’s Way 3-1 WON ($7.20)

4th: 12th Daytona (G3), 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Terrific assembly for this with great mix of pure sprinters and classy, late-running turnbacks. Wide open..

Best Value: #11 Somethings Unusual 20-1 12th
Next Best: #12 No Silent 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Alert Bay 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Big Bane Theory 12-1 10th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

With today’s Gulfstream 8th (3:35pm ET), an important-looking group of Maidens..

Most Likely: #3 Danzing Candy 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #4 Mr. Coker 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Weirdhaircut Seth 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Curlin Rules 5-1 9th

6th: 16th Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sure feels like there’s too much pace involved here to be accepting Om or any of the front end parties..

Best Value: #9 Vigilante 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Mister Brightside 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Om 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #5 Soul Driver 8-1 7th

7th: 43rd La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Not a great deal of speed involved here, so Hot City Girl will have every chance to wire. Cavorting pointed, poised for this. Local Ben’s Duchess may be the least known accomplished 3yo filly in the country. Finest City gives fledgling trainer Ian Kruljac a big chance to impress in spotlight. Birdatthewire drew inside and needs meltdown type scenario, but Romans too clever to ignore in big spots..

Most Likely: #3 Cavorting 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Ben’s Duchess 3-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Finest City 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Hot City Girl 3-1 2nd

8th: 64th Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD)

Always an end of year highlight, Malibu looks to be largely at the disposal of BC Sprint winner Runhappy. KMc invaders obviously eligible to threaten fave, but it’s Lord Nelson that has the most upside returning from break and trying trip he likes best..

Most Likely: #4 Runhappy 6-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #7 Lord Nelson 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Marking 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Watershed 4-1 5th

9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (Super Hi-5)

Very tricky finale. Doesn’t appear to be all that much pace..

Most Likely: #5 Hunt 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Dreaming of Gold 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Tale of Life 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 What a View 5-1 WON ($9.80)
Hi-5 Play: #8 Eckersly 12-1 7th

P4 Grid:

6: 6-9 (A), 5-10 (B), – (C)
7: 3-6 (A), 1-2-10 (B), – (C)
8: 4 (A), – (B), 2-3-7 (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 4-8-10-11 (B), 6-7-9-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x6 = 120 x $0.50 = $60
Full (A/B/C): $72 (With $1 All ‘A’s’ Play)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,10/1/4/11) Paid $209.65

Very irksome miss in the Aqueduct C/O P5 Friday which returned nearly $1,000, as decision to cut budget from $136 to $96 proved fateful. Initial full approach utilizing complete A-B-C plays included Quibbler as an A in the first leg, but in trying to keep the investment under $100, I crippled a backup ticket that had a successful A-A-A-A-C punch.

This topic gets right back to the conversation I had with Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR where we broached the budget issues on P6’s. When constructing plays in the analysis, I never want to suggest outlandish budgets that will be a stretch for the average player and a $100 cap seemed right and reasonable for this opportunity.

The A-B-C plays did catch the P4 for $235 which covered the multi outlays, but nailing the P5 is the difference in making the day top notch as opposed to the trading of dollars. Finding $10 Singsong and $21 Core Portfolio in the 3rd and 4th provided some incoming as well. Was a fun scenario to attack and I hope everyone did well. Nice assortment of action around the country today..

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Hills’ Malibu Action was nipped in sharp debut and certainly looms as one to beat, but Kenneally turnback Hot Squad plenty eligible with firsters from Brown and Violette logical upon introduction. Wild Impulse (8-1) from Linda Rice shows steady gains with experience, but needs to make up 3 lengths on the favorite out of last. Iswear I’ll Behave (15-1) was pricey ($120k) for a Gone Astray and appears tuned for bow..

Most Likely: #5 Malibu Action 7-5
Next Best: #9 Hot Squad 3-1
Best Value: #7 Moon Over a Beauty 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 My Man Sam 6-1

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Too much pace here, (with 2 adding blinkers), for back half of field not to impact..

Most Likely: #4 Candid Desire 10-1
Next Best: #5 Cort 7-2
Best Value: #3 Mello Groove 30-1
Exotics Use: #7 Thnxtomyuncle 12-1

8th: 110th Queens County, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tommy Macho 2-1
Best Value: #6 Financial Modeling 6-1
Next Best: #3 Kid Cruz 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Mylute 4-1

9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 2yo-F, 1m-70y

Ugly bunch o’ coconuts..

Most Likely: #9 Corinthian’s Joy 2-1
Next Best: #7 Sheyn Vi Di Levone 5-2
Best Value: #1 Ditch Em 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 Roaring Vixen 8-1

P4 Grid:

6: 5-9 (A), 4-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3 (B), 6-7-9 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
9: 9 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x $0.50 = $72

FAIR GROUNDS

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 10 Diliberto Mewmorial, 4+, 8.5f-T (Black Gold P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lewis Vale 8-1
Next Best: #7 Lookout 4-1
Best Value: #8 Potomac River 8-1
Exotics Use: #1 Regally Ready 3-1

9th: 51st Tiffany Lass, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Please Explain 9-2
Best Value: #8 Sweet Basil 6-1
Next Best: #9 Cash Control 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Emmajestic 5-1

10th: 51st Tenacious, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Eagle 4-1
Next Best: #3 Ride On Curlin 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Freestyler 3-1
Super Add: #6 Treasury Bill 5-1

P3 Grid:

8: 4 (A), 7-8 (B), 1 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 6-9 (B), 5 (C)
10: 2-3 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2 = $24

Good luck!
Steve

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

$163k P5 C/O starts here..

First NYRA P5 C/O could generate pool approaching $1,000,000 and despite reasonable field size sequence of 7x6x6x10x7, looks VERY slippery. First leg invites heavy reliance on Wild Image SCR’D, but how confident should you be in 5yo mare with very little speed? Adds blinkers and comes back 2nd/layoff with work in between..

Most Likely: #5 Bubbe Zena 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Nagging Gigee 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Quibbler 5-2 WON ($5.30)

2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Another spot that suggests opp to focus on heavy fave with Midnight Champagne (3-5) undeniable as speed and wire threat. But Rock Show and Little Gidding are within a couple lengths of the choice and with Kelly’s Prize and Swakopmund in possession of efforts that can win this..

Most Likely: #2 Midnight Champagne 3-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Rock Show 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Little Gidding 4-1 4th

3rd: NY-OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Nice group of credentialed NYB 2yo fillies and power players will buy the race with the all button as even 20-1 Finger Lakes invader Sacred Season is not without chance routing for the first time. On the topic of 2 turns, Singsong and ‘other’ Pletcher Queens Tiara are lone entrants with that experience, albeit on the turf..

Best Value: #2 Singsong 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #4 Here Comes Rosie 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Queens Tiara 6-1 5th

4th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD)

$21k P6 C/O starts here..

Three MSW/MCLM droppers the glaring participants here, with KMc’s Bunyaan getting 2nd start Lasix while stretching out from the rail..

Most Likely: #1 Bunyaan 4-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Core Portfolio 8-1 WON ($21.10)
Next Best: #6 Bibbo 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Tom’s Gift 6-1 2nd

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Counter Culture 2-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Congarette 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Irish Heroine 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Stone Supplier 7-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

1: 1-5 (A), 2-3-4-7 (B), – (C)
2: 2 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-6 (C)
3: 2-4 (A), 1-3-5-6 (B), – (C)
4: 1-3 (A), 6-10 (B), – (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), 2-3-4-5-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $96

P4 Grid:

2: 2 (A), 3-6 (B), 4-5 (C)
3: 2-4 (A), 1-3-5-6 (B), – (C)
4: 1-3 (A), 6-10 (B), – (C)
5: 1 (A), 7 (B), 2-3-4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/2/3/2) Paid $235.50 (A-A-A-C)