SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Hay Listen Up 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Le Grand Warrior 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Caniform Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Open Bar 6-1 5th

2nd: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Utterly wise open. Use any prices you surmise as having a shot..

Most Likely: #2 Majestic Mist 6-1 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #3 Bitterroot 30-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Daddyisdooley 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Quanique 20-1 11th

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Private Client 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Achnaha 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Lilly’s Dream 6-1 5th

4th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$91k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #5 River Deep 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Borso Vento 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Javelin 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #7 Likeitlikethat 5-1 5th

5th: CLM, 3+, 9f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Swivel 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Dubb entry 5-2 4th/6th
Exotics Use: #4 Branded Hand 3-1 5th

P5 Grid:

1: 2-5 (A), 3/Late SCR-7 (B), 1-6 (C)
2: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-7-8-9-11 (C)
3: 1-2 (A), – (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 1-5-8 (A), – (B), 6-7-9 (C)
5: 1-3 (A), 4 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

2: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-7-8-9-11 (C)
3: 1-2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
4: 1-5 (A), 7-8 (B), 6-9 (C)
5: 1-3 (A), 4 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x4x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Barely Impazible 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #1 Ultimateentitlement 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Raging Fire 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Collective Effort 3-1 3rd

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tejana 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Malibu Stacy 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Annie Rocks 8-5 3rd

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Terrific group of state bred fillies going the in-between 6.5f. Note that Never Hungover faces like company for the first time..

Best Value: #9 Never Hungover 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Bluegrass Jamboree 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Grassarla 8-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Shimmering Moon 7-2 WON ($12.00)

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #9 Dream Passage 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Smart and Sassy Late SCR
Next Best: #11 Kat O Mine 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Piquet 4-1 3rd

P6 Grid:

4: 1-5-8 (A), – (B), 6-7-9 (C)
5: 3 (A), 1 (B), 2-4-7 (C)
6: 2 (A), – (B), 1-6-10 (C)
7: 1-2-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 5-9 (A), 3-6-7-8 (B), 1-4 (C)
9: 9 (A), – (B), 5/Late SCR-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x3x6x1 = 108 x $2 = $216
All A’s: 3x1x1x3x2x1 = 18 x $2 = $36

P5 Grid:

5: 1-3 (A), 4 (B), 2-7 (C)
6: 2 (A), – (B), 1-6-10 (C)
7: 1-2-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 5-6-9 (A), 3-7-8 (B), 1-4 (C)
9: 5/Late SCR-9 (A), – (B), 3-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x6x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 2 (A), 1 (B), 6-10 (C)
7: 1-2-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 5-6-9 (A), 1-3-7-8 (B), 4 (C)
9: 5/Late SCR-9 (A), 11 (B), 3-7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B):2x3x7x3 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A’s: 1x3x3x2 = $18 ($9 for .50)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

.20 Must Pay P6 starts here..

Most Likely: #9 K One Kobra 9-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Playing a Joke 6-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Nachas and Joy 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 National Defense 5-1 WON ($10.80)

4th: MCLM/$50k, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Katie’s Warrior 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Dixie Jewel 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Explosive Vacation 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Following a Dream 15-1 3rd

5th: MCLM/$10k, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Halo Not Included 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Ripe Attack 9-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Bet With Charlie 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Detroit Cowboy Gate SCR

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Austin’s Argument 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Buck Magic 6-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #9 Sail Maker 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 All Aboard 5-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N1X, F^&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Best Value: #8 Mercer Mill Mae 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Conquest Curlgirl 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #6 True Egyptian 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Purim’s Danawa 6-1 2nd

8th: MCLM/$10k, F&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Miss Hur 7-2 7th
Best Value: #6 Neak Up On Ya 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Supplement 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Mzapropriatedfunds 7-2 WON ($9.00)
Hi-5 Play: #12 Prime Money 12-1 11th

P6 Grid:

3: 4-9 (A), 1-7 (B), 2-3-5-11 (C)
4: 4-6-8 (A), – (B), 1-2-3 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 1-3/SCR (B), – (C)
6: 2 (A), – (B), 3-6-9 (C)
7: 2-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-5 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-10 (C)

Full (A/B/C with 2 B’s): $182.40
Full (A/B/C) with 1 B): $124.80
Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x1x4x4 = 768 x .20 = $153.60
All A’s: 2x3x2x1x2x2 = 48 x .20 = $9.60

P4 Grid:

5: 4-6 (A), 1-3/SCR (B), 5-8 (C)
6: 2 (A), 6 (B), 3-4-7-9 (C)
7: 2-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-5 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
Full (A/B/C): $72
All A’s: 2x1x2x2 = $8

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/4/5-6-2/2-5) Pays $45.45 (x 2) = $90.90

by Steve Byk
first published on May 3, 2008

Oaks Day a success from the wagerng vantage point with opportunity to grow further from live Feature Double plays to 10 Derby starters. But tough to endure weather and likely fatal injury to Chelokee made the afternoon a bit of a downer overall. Saturday forecast not nearly as hopeful as promised 24 hours ago, with prospects for thunderstorms making less than fast track for Derby more likely. At this hour (4:30am), thunderstorms with teeming rain, and that changes an already muddled picture for the rose run, with go early prospects like Big Brown and Bob Black Jack possible to lead a merry chase if surface a sea of slop. Suggestion is always to handicap for a fast track and adjust as the day indicates. Remember as well selecting the Distaff Turf Classic and Woodford Reserve that turf course will be yielding at absolute best. 

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by Steve Byk
first published on April 28, 2008

with Steve Haskin and courtesy of Blood-Horse.com

The Sanan family?s Padua Stables’ Behindatthebar, a late arrival to the spring classics scene with his victory in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. II) April 19 at Keeneland, will not enter the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) and instead will point for a start in the May 17 Preakness Stakes (gr. I). The decision to demure from the Derby opens the door for Mr. and Mrs. William Warren’s Denis of Cork who had been 21st on the graded earnings list.

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by Steve Byk
first published on April 15, 2008

It is mid-April, and I am minutes from leaving for Kentucky on the annual Derby pilgrimage. Yet I am formulating my first “Derby List” of the season now. In what can only be described as the oddest Derby Trail yet encountered, I kid not when I say I haven’t had a clue as to whom among the 2008 sophomores might be the kind of colt, and now filly, that can win the rose blanket. 

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