Archive for the '2017' Category

1/1: Santa Anita (5th-9th)

Monday, January 1st, 2018

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Jes Jaa 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Finallygotabentley 4-1 WON ($12.60)
Best Value: #2 Freddie’s Dream 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Rprettyboyfloyd 3-1 5th

6th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Baffert unveils sibling to Indian Blessing in Ax Man. Maybe not today, but more sooner than later. Glatt’s More Honor the other firster worth watching..

Most Likely: #4 Ax Man 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #8 More Honor 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Shanghai Billy 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Optic 6-1 4th

7th: 10th Joe Hernandez, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Sure looks like there’s enough pace types to set things up for someone from a bit off the pace and Cali newcomer Next Shares (12-1) may love the trip.Om, Tribalist, BC Turf Sprint runner-up Richard’s Boy and Pee Wee Reese all own downhill experience/form. Fun edition of this homage to the memory of Santa Anita’s first track announcer who died ‘at the mic’ after 38 years calling the races..

Best Value: #10 Next Shares 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Om 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Tribalist 9-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Richard’s Boy 7-2 3rd

8th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

Treacherous group..

Best Value: #3 Zippy Groom 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Treasure Hunter 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Utah Ute 6-1 WON ($20.20)
Super Add: #5 Big Hunk 12-1 9th

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Be Mine 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 How About Zero 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Shazara 8-1 WON ($43.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Zero Zee 15-1 9th

P5 Grid:

5: 2-5-8 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)
6: 4 (A), – (B), 1-5-8-11 (C)
7: 7-10 (A), 5-8 (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 3-9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-7-12 (C)
9: 1-8-10 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 4 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-11 (C)
7: 5-7-8-10 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 3-9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-7-12 (C)
9: 1-8-10 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x4x2x3 = $24 ($12 for.50)

12/31: Santa Anita ($80k C/O)

Sunday, December 31st, 2017

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season and had a good season participating in the game at whatever level you enjoy. It was a strong year overall in racing with far more positives than negatives including a breakthrough on the tax withholding guidelines a decade in the making. Let’s build on the momentum in 2018. Warm wishes to Derby Trailers, ATR listeners, industry stakeholders and their families for a bountiful New Year filled with good health and contentment..

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$80k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #7 Dressed in Prada 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Chatty Carole 8-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Tiffany Diamond 7-2 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #13 Yalla 8-1 4th

5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Make It a Triple 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #7 Hank the Tank 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Bolitar 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Tough It Out 5-1 4th

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Winner’s Dream 3-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Ryder’s Starlight 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Gift of a Star 4-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Arethusa 8-1 9th

7th: CA-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely #6 Mo See Cal 4-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Z Z Tiger 5-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Allie’s Love 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Judicial 5-1 2nd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Desert Law 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Dr. Dorr 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Adens Dream 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Lewys Vaporizer 7-2 6th

9th: 20th Blue Norther, 2yo-F, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Multiplayer 10-1
Next Best: #3 Retro 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 One Fast Broad 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Ippodamia’s Girl 4-1 WON ($10.60)

P6 Grid:

4: 7-12 (A), – (B), 2-4-8-13 (C)
5: 5-7 (A), – (B), 2-3-8 (C)
6: 2-11 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
7: 6 (A), 3-7 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
8: 4 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 3-11 (A), 9-10 (B), 2-7-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x3x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 2x2x2x1x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32

P5 Grid:

5: 5-7 (A), – (B), 2-3-8 (C)
6: 2-11 (A), 1-6 (B), 8-9 (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), – (B), 1-9-11 (C)
8: 4 (A), – (B), 1-3-6 (C)
9: 3-11 (A), 9-10-12 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

6: 2-11 (A), 1 (B), 6-8-9 (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), – (B), 1-9-11 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 1-2-7 (C)
9: 3-11 (A), 9-10-12 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x5 = 135 x .50 = $67.50
All A’s: 2x3x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

12/29: Santa Anita ($95k C/O)

Friday, December 29th, 2017

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$95,855 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #5 New Dancer 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Oiseau de Guerre 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Mesut 6-1 WON ($17.80)
Super Add: #8 Zipman 5-1 8th

4th: Cal-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Lymebird 3-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Lovely Anzi 9-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Desert General 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Closing Time 9-2 5th

5th: 22nd Eddie Logan, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Ayacara 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Pubilius Syrus 9-5 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Inscom 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Choo Choo 4-1 3rd

6th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Mariana’s Girl 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #14 Uno Trouble Maker 3-1 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Wild Edie 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #13 Venice 6-1 6th

7th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Lake Time 8-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #9 Bad Ju Ju 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Meet and Greet 5-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Dalsaros 5-2 4th

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Curly’s Waterfront 5-1 4th-DQ’d to 10th
Next Best: #2 Red King 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Rainbow Squall 8-1 7thth
Super Add: #8 Uber Star 8-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #11 Lori’s Attitude 12-1 9th

P6 Grid:

3: 4-5 (A), 10 (B), 6-8-12 (C)
4: 6 (A), 3 (B), 1-8 (C)
5: 2 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
6: 3-14 (A), – (B), 2-8-13 (C)
7: 6-9 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-3 (C)
8: 2-3 (A), – (B), 5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 2x1x1x2x2x2 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

5: 2-4-7 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)
6: 3-8-14 (A), – (B), 2-13 (C)
7: 6-9 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-3 (C)
8: 2-3 (A), 5-8 (B), 4-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/1,5,14/6/2,12) Paid $97.10

12/26: Santa Anita Opening Day

Tuesday, December 26th, 2017

SANTA ANITA ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

Hope everyone had a joyful Christmas! Boxing Day delivers one of the great traditional days in racing, Santa Anita Opening Day and with it the last G1’s of the year..

1st: MSW, 2yo, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Open start to Arcadia season with 3 dirt/turf movers and EVERYONE stretching from 8f to 9f. Major question is where the pace is going to come from. River Boyne with a clean break? Fengari with Castellano? Of the first time grass runners, Orbit Rain (Orb out of Jaramar Rain by Thunder Gulch) is most eligible to move up on it..

Most Likely: #9 Fengari 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pali High 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Big Buzz 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Orbit Rain 6-1 2nd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Candy Cornell ran big in debut behind key race lynchpin Cool Bobby and looks to have opportunity to stalk and pounce or possibly as controlling speed. Bejarano sticks with 2nd timer Kanthaka who exits that same race for Hollendorfer and merits long look after awkward trip from the the one hole in that debut. Sadler’s Desolation Sound ran evenly in October bow, the race that produced Talent Scout, Cool Bobby, Shivermetimbers and more. Baffert’s Longden has shown ability in the morning but has disappointed in the afternoon..

Most Likely: #12 Candy Cornell 5-2 10th
Best Value: #3 Kanthaka 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #6 Desolation Sound 5-1 11th
Exotics Use: #10 Longden 10-1 4th

3rd: 80th San Antonio (G2), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Collected tunes up here for Pegasus appointment and should dominate, but the other 5 are really nice horses which bodes well for the West Coast Handicap season..

Most Likely: #6 Collected 3-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Accelerate 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Giant Expectations 15-1 WON ($29.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Hoppertunity 5-1 4th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Chickatini’s dam She’s Cheeky was a multiple G1 placed sprinter for these connections during the synthetic surface era in California. Ran OK in turf sprint debut and looks to move forward while adding blinkers stretching out down the hill..

Most Likely: #2 Chickatini 4-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Sensible Myth 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Mapit 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Californiagoldrush 12-1 WON ($56.80)
Super/Hi-5: #3 Ladybug 8-1 3rd

5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Spectre Bond stayed in CA for owner Gary Barber after missing as fave at DMR. Wins with return to 100 Beyer debut effort at BEL, but may be vulnerable again here..

Best Value: #3 Red Lightening 8-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #8 Spectre Bond 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Big Gray Rocket 4-1 11th
Super Add: #13 Well Measured 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Sir Samson 12-1 7th

P5 Grid:

1: 7-9-10 (A), 1-5-8 (B), – (C)
2: 3-12 (A), – (B), 6-8-9-10 (C)
3: 6 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 2-10 (A), 7-8 (B), 1-3 (C)
5: 3-4-8 (A), – (B), 11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

2: 3-6-12 (A), 8-9-10 (B), – (C)
3: 6 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 2-10 (A), 3-7-8 (B), 1 (C)
5: 3-4-8 (A), – (B), 11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x3 = 90 x.50 = $45
All A’s: 3x1x2x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

6th: 8th Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo,

Using the top 3 in multis, but Bowies Hero the preference returning to mile voyage that is his best distance..

Most Likely: #5 Bowies Hero 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #4 Harbour Master 8-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Big Score 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 B Squared 5-1 5th

7th: 45th La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Long-anticipated match-up between Paradise Woods and Unique Bella set and I am hard-pressed to define a scenario that guarantees a win for one or the other. With route success on her resume, Paradise Woods may be that much more versatile returning to the elongated sprint..

Most Likely: #7 Paradise Woods 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Unique Bella 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #4 Mopotism 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Faypien 6-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #2 Marley’s Freedom 20-1 4th

8th: 66th Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday on ATR, Pavel reminds me of 2004 Malibu winner Rock Hard Ten into this spot having kept serious Classic-style company all year ahead of last G1 chance as a 3yo. Broke MDN here in July at 6.5f and can adjust to any pace. Unbeaten C Z Rocket will be overbet, but like that he came out early enough for 2 works over the deep surface. Will use the 4 below in fun edition of this stallion resume event..

Most Likely: #6 Pavel 4-1 4th
Next Best: #9 C Z Rocket 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 City of Light 8-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Favorable Outcome 3-1 3rd

9th: OC/N1X, 3+. 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Spanish Hombre 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #6 Temple Keys 6-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Chris and Dave 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Lazzam 3-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #7 Ice Kat 20-1 7th

P5 Grid:

5: 3-4-8 (A), – (B), 11-13 (C)
6: 4-5-8 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
7: 7 (A), 3 (B), 2-4-5 (C)
8: 6-9 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), – (B), 7-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/5/3/1/4,5,13,14) Paid $1,306.85

P4 Grid:

6: 4-5-8 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-6 (C)
7: 3-7 (A), 4 (B), 1-5 (C)
8: 6-9 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 9-11 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/3/1/4,5,13,14) Paid $128.55

12/17: Los Al ($79k Closing Day C/O)

Sunday, December 17th, 2017

LOS ALAMITOS ~ CLOSING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$79,379 ‘MUST PAY’ C/O STARTS HERE..

Most Likely: #5 Stormin Monarcho 5-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Hot Sean 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 The Lieutenant 7-2 WON ($7.00)

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Serious looking group with FTS’s from Baffert & Dorf debuters and All Out Blitz & Concur making 3rd tries after finding tough nuts..

Best Value: #5 All Out Blitz 7-2 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #2 Montmartre 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Restoring Hope 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Concur 5-2 4th

7th: CLM/N2X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Flash Henry, 2/2 on the Cypress strip, stretches out for Puype (8/4-0-0 at stand) and may prove tough to catch..

Best Value: #4 Flash Henry 4-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Gentrified 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 American League 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Lindante 9-2 WON ($12.20)

8th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Difficult group..

Best Value: #7 Troublesome 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Dangerously Close 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Royal Astronomer 12-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Yalisha 9-2 5th

9th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Tasunke Wilco 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #5 Mon Mousse 5-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Seeking the West 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Hot Perfection 10-1 3rd

10th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Southern Thunder 9-2 WON ($13.80)
Best Value: #7 Downside Up 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Mr. Matlock 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Is Trevor Clever 3-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #4 Haylord 15-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-7) Paid $76.40
$1 Trifecta (2-7-8) Paid $444.70
$1 Superfecta (2-7-8-4) Paid $2,676.80
$1 Exact 5 (2-7-8-4-10) Paid $30,176.00

P6 P5 Grid:

5: 5 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
6: 2-5 (A), 7 (B), 6-8 (C)
7: 4-5 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 8 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 2-7-10 (A), – (B), 1-4-5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x4x2x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A’s: 1x2x2x2x1x3 = 24 x $2 = $48

$2 Pick-6 (6/5/6/5/8/2) Paid $381.00 (5 OF 6) x 2 = $762.00

P4 Grid:

7: 4-5 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-2 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 2-5-8 (A), – (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 2-7-10 (A), – (B), 1-4-5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/5/8/2) Paid $301.75