6/22: Belmont at The Big A (X-C P5)

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BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT (X-C P5 w/ MTH 8th/9th)

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Venge Gate SCR
Next Best: #3 Messi the Magician 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Muazarah 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Bonne Chance 6-1 4th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-Outer (P4, P3, DD)

Deep group and tricky start to daunting Cross Country P5 sequence..

Best Value: #3 Heymackit’sjack 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Final Denile 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Instamatic 2-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #4 Your Man Alex 5-1 4th

Cross Country P5 Grid:

BAQ 8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
MTH 8: 3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
BAQ 9: 1 (A), 8 (B), 3-7 (C)
MTH 9: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
BAQ 10: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-7 in BAQ 9th)

MONMOUTH 8th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD

Most Likely: #3 Laramore 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Abby the Bull Dawg 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Miss Casey 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Between Dreams 7-2 3rd

9th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Golden Degree 7-2 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #8 Six Pack Senorita 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Gav’s Dream Girl 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Spiritual Lady 8-1 5th

MONMOUTH 9th: Goldwood, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #9 Hollywood Walk 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Queen of the Mud 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Beauty of the Sea 7-2 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #10 All That Magic 4-1 4th

10th: Wild Applause, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

As mentioned with Marcus Hersh yesterday, there are several more likely winners than Awesome Czech (15-1), but she represents the layoff return opportunity scenario I frequently bring up. Away 7 months, there’s a real chance based on Mendelssohn progeny stats that she comes back at a level well ahead of his opponents..

Best Value: #6 Awesome Czech 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Vino Rouge 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Oversubscribed 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #1 Gala Brand 4-1 5th

11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Outer

Impossibly messy set where firsters (6-9-10) might not have to be overly special to win, while surface/distance movers (2-4-11-12) and droppers (1-7) can make cases for various levels of inclusion..

Best Value: #7 A Lister 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Holder Close 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Neptune Beach 8-1 7th
Super Add: #12 Arco Augusta 10-1 6th

P5 Grid:

7: 2/SCR-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
9: 1-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-7 (A), 1-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-7 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
9: 1-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-7 (A), 1-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-7 in 9th)

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