9/2: Indiana Grand (11.99% Late P5)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

INDIANA DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Minetta 5-1
Best Value: #5 Tanqurette 12-1
Next Best: #6 Yellowstone Girl 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Novel Squall 9-2

5th: ITOBA Stallion-R, 3yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Mystical Justice 6-1
Next Best: #3 Carmella Key 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Sentimentaljourney 7-5
Super Add: #6 Elusive Justice 8-1

6th: ITOBA Stallion-R, 3yo-C&G, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Unbridled Beast 8-5
Next Best: #4 Cash Logistics 6-5
Best Value: #7 Nates Heartthrob 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Maters N Taters 8-1

7th: Wm. Henry Harrison-IN, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Thatswhatithought 9-2
Next Best: #2 Operation Stevie 7-5
Exotics Use: #1 Double Tuff 9-5
Super Add: #5 Here Comes Doc 5-1

8th: Shelby County-IN, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Unbridled Class 1-5
Best Value: #7 Expect Indy 10-1
Next Best: #3 Fireball Baby 10-1
Exotics Use: #6 Pretty Assets 15-1

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #13 Regal Romance 5-2
Best Value: #10 More Cowbell 10-1
Next Best: #6 Classical Magic 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Tricky Tune 4-1

P5 Grid:

5: 2-3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), – (C)
6: 2-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-8 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
8: 8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 6-10-13 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x2x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 2-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-8 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
8: 8 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8-10-13 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 2x2x1x5 = 20 x .50 = $10

Good luck!
Steve

8/30: Saratoga (Shuvee; Late P5)

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SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

For those curious about Natalia Lynch who is saddling Square Shooter, she’s a Jeremiah Englehart assistant going out on her own..

Most Likely: #2 Summer Bourbon 7-2
Best Value: #7 Local Hero 6-1
Next Best: #5 Zonic 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Square Shooter 6-1

7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Short Pour 7-2
Next Best: #12 Blue Atlas 5-2
Best Value: #2 Barrel of Destiny 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Pecatonica 7-2

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Gandy Dancing 2-1
Next Best: #8 Harris Bay 3-1
Best Value: #1 Leap to Glory 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Number One Dillon 20-1

9th: 44th Shuvee (G3), F&M-4+, 9f (DD)

This is a very good running of the Shuvee with what should be a zippy pace and live prices involved including Trombetta’s hot working Puerto Rican mystery filly Lucky Stride. I tabbed Lucky Move (6/1-3-1 at 9f) for Beat Byk today because her Obeah two back can win this and she’s the only authentic off the pace candidate..

Best Value: #7 Lucky Move 12-1
Next Best: #5 Golden Award 9-2
Exotics Use: #1 Lucky Stride 15-1
Super Add: #6 Nonna Madeline 4-1

10th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #1 Venerable 6-1
Next Best: #4 Shirelle 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Modern Science 3-1
Super Add: #5 Sur Del Sol 10-1

P5 Grid:

6: 2-7 (A), – (B), 5-6-10 (C)
7: 1-2-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4 (A), 8 (B), 1 (C)
9: 1-5-7 (A), 4-6-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
9: 1-5-7 (A), 4-6-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x6x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

Saratoga (6th-11th; X-C P5)

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SARATOGA ~ CROSS COUNTRY PICK 5

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: Saranac (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Good group of grassy sophs including Chad Brown import that has made very positive impression working towards US debut. Fact that he liked soft & heavy ground in France could bode well here..

Most Likely: #4 L’Imperator 5-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Embolden 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Bodecream 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Vanzzy 7-2 8th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (X-C P5 Leg A, Empire 6, P3, DD)

Excellent Cross Country P5 starts here with what looks like a classic loaded Spa baby event. Richie Vega (#8 Jimmy the Kid) is better with 2nd timers, but note visit to town from Philly with Runhappy colt looking for shot at $100k breeder award. Working well at PRX..

Most Likely: #10 Happymac 5-2: $360k Asmussen/Helligbrodt totes gate blast in for debut.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Highly Motivated 7-2: Sharp drilling Klarman Into Mischief homebred.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Newbomb 3-1: Rail drawn Pletcher Speightstown firster half to St. Joe Bay.. 3rd
Super Add: #8 Jimmy the Kid 15-1 6th

MONMOUTH 9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 12f-OFF THE TURF (X-C P5 Leg B)

Most Likely: #8 Terry’s Charm WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #9 So High 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Decisive Triumph 4th

WOODBINE 7th: Ontario Colleen, 3yo-F, 1m-T (X-C P5 Leg C, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Avie’s Samurai 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Fly So Pretty 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Two Sixty 9-2 4th

7th: Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Whole group is separated by less than 2 lengths..

Most Likely: #3 Long Weekend 9-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Premier Star 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wonderwherecraigis 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Yaupon 8-5 WON ($4.80)

8th: Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (X-C P5 Leg D, P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly engaging group with countless options, but note that there isn’t a ton of pace signed on..

Most Likely: #4 Funny Guy 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Complexity 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Win Win Win 12-1 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Whitmore 7-2 7th

9th: Sword Dancer (G1), 4+, 12f-Inner (X-C P5 Leg E, P3, DD)

Murky bunch and sense that the ones that go forward will decide it. Intrigue comes from Motion who shows up with a mystery horse in Pedro Cara and a fresh face might be just what we’re looking for versus these usual suspects..

Most Likely: #2 Aquaphobia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pedro Cara 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cross Border 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Sadler’s Joy 5-2 4th

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

SAR 6: 4-10 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
MTH 9: 8-9 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
WO 7: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAR 8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)
SAR 9: 2-6-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Very tricky read on this set of juvy fillies with some of the obvious firsters seemingly more turf/route meant (Always Carina/Jouster/Zainalareb). Siding more with those that have run..

Most Likely: #7 O’Gotten Girl 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Capstone Girl 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Spun d’Etat 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Zainalarab 7-2 Late SCR

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f

Big balloons in the offing here..

Best Value: #4 Bustin Scones 10-1 WON ($17.80)
Next Best: #7 Midnight Surprise 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Fight On Lucy 20-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Pot of Hunny 30-1 DNF-Clipped Heels, Fell

P5 Grid:

7: 3-4 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), – (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), – (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 4 (A), 7 (B), 9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), – (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 5-8 (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 9-10 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

8/26: Indiana Grand ($63k P5 C/O)

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INDIANA GRAND ~ $63k P5 CARRYOVER

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Well-matched group making for a very difficult opener to the C/O sequence..

Most Likely: #8 Lady Brexit 3-1 8th
Best Value: #5 My Wynter Rose 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Sheesa Pontiac 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Majestic Bold 30-1 WON ($28.20)

6th: First Lady-IN, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Copper Nickel 1-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Serena Beck 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Wellington Wonder 12-1 WON ($22.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Nothingbutflowers 3-1 6th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Artie’s Rumor 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Hemp Hemp Hurray 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Mr. Gary D 30-1 WON ($28.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Peekacho 9-2 5th

8th: Governor’s-IN, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD, .10 Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Flatter Hymm 8-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #5 Strong Tide 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mai Tai’s Gem 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Two Last Words 9-5 4th

9th: MSW-IN, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #11 Peekachica 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #8 Aiken to Be Takin 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Hot N Sweet 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Mizzen the Cove 9-2 7th

P5 Grid:

5: 1-3-5-8-10 (A), 4-6-7 (B), 2-9 (C)
6: 2 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
7: 5-8 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)
8: 5-9 (A), – (B), 4 (C)
9: 8-11 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x1x4x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 5x1x2x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20

P4 Grid:

6: 2 (A), 7 (B), 5 (C)
7: 2-5-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 8-11 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x4x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/2/9/11) Paid $2,150.45 (C-A-A-A) ~ $12

8/23: Saratoga (Empire 6 Force Out)

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SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 No Salt 3-5 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #7 False Alarm 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Broadway Joe 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Supply Sider 5-1 4th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Dancers for Token 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Six Percent 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Quiet Out East 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Cold Hard Cash 5-2 2nd

6th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Towering Gaze 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #2 High School Crush 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Mia Bea Star 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Silent Empress 5-2 3rd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Pete’s Play Call 5-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #3 Free Enterprise 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Mount Travers 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Home Run Maker 4-1 4th

8th: 82nd Diana (G1), F&M-4+, 9f-Inner (DD)

The Diana is always one of the meet’s highlight and this 6 pack is loaded with star power; 54 wins among them for nearly $9,000,000 in earnings.

Most Likely: #3 Rushing Fall 3-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Call Me Love 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Starship Jubilee 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sistercharlie 5-2 3rd

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Turf

Most Likely: #2 Ringgood 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Nero’s Fiddle 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Allied Invasion 8-5 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Aintitfunkynow 2-1 3rd

Empire P6 Grid:

4: 2-7 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), 2 (B), 5-6 (C)
7: 3-6 (A), 5-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x4x2x3 = 384 x .20 = $76.80
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .20 = $19.20

P5 Grid:

5: 3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), – (B), 2-5-6 (C)
7: 3-5-6-7 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
9: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x1x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

6: 1-2 (A), 6 (B), 5 (C)
7: 3-5-6-7 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
9: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,4/6/2,3/3) Paid $73.62 (A-A-A-A)