6/20: Belmont Stakes Day (6th-12th)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Wonder Again (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T (Mandatory Pay P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Selflessly 5-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Sweet Melania 7-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Highland Glory 2-1 2nd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 My Sassy Sarah 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Single Verse 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Strongerthanuknow 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #12 Speightstown Gal 8-1 WON ($11.20)

8th: Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Casual 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Perfect Alibi 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Gamine 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Lucrezia 9-2 4th

9th: Jaipur (G1), 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Stubbins 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Texas Wedge 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Hidden Scroll 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Oleksandra 7-2 WON ($6.50)

SAT 10th: Belmont (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Tiz the Law 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #3 Max Player 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Sole Volante 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Modernist 15-1 6th

Mandatory Pay P5 Grid:

6: 2-5 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
7: 3-8 (A), 4-12(B), – (C)
8: 1-4-7 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
10: 8(A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 3-8 (A), 4-12(B), – (C)
8: 1-4-7 (A), 2-3 (B), 6 (C)
9: 2-3-5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 8(A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x5x1 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 2x3x5x1 = 30 x .50 = $15

$0.50 Pick-4 (12/1/2/8) Paid $70.12

11th: OC/ALW-C, 4+, 9f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #2 Breaking the Rules 6-1 WON ($9.70)
Next Best: #9 Digital Age 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Pillar Mountain 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1e Delacour/Lael entry 10-1 8th/10th

12th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-T

Best Value: #7 Qian B C 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Veterans Beach SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Simply 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Turbo Drive 8-1 7th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-4-7 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 6 (B), 2-4-7 (C)
10: 8(A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), 1-6-7 (B), – (C)
12: 1/SCR-4-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x5x4 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 3x2x1x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

9: 3-5-6 (A), 2-4-7 (B), – (C)
10: 8(A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
11: 2-6-9 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
12: 1/SCR-4-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x1x3x4 = 36 x .50 = $18

CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

BELMONT 7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Cost Benefit 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Windfall Profit 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Too Sexy 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Dovima 6-1 2nd

CHURCHILL 8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hidden Facts 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 V J’s Bet 10-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Dixieincandyland 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Even Beat 8-1 4th

BELMONT 8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Officer Hutchy 4-1 10th
Best Value: #4 Ruvies in Time 20-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Wailin Josie 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Pot of Hunny 12-1 6th

CHURCHILL 10th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #10 She Can’t Sing 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Sconsin 12-1 WON ($41.00)
Next Best: #1 Miss T Too 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Remanded 15-1 5th

CHURCHILL 11th: Louisville H. (G3), 4+, 12f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Arklow 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Lombo 30-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Admission Office 3-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Tiz a Slam 7-2 6th

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

BEL 7: 5(A), – (B), 3-10 (C)
CD 8: 4-5 (A), 1-10 (B), 2-11 (C)
BEL 8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), 9-10-12 (C)
CD 10: 1-6-10 (A), 2-5-9 (B), – (C)
CD 11: 5-7 (A), – (B), 6-12(C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

GULFSTREAM PARK ~ RAINBOW 6 FORCE OUT

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T/108′ (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Constitutional Pal 9-2 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #12 Leading West 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Imperial Moment 4-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Mighty Tough 30-1 10th

8th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Smash 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Shanghai Moon 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Man With a Plan 2-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Captain Duke 3-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T/108′ (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Donji 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Morning Stride 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 King Orb 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Grand Nenuco 4-1 3rd

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Flawless Moon 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Reservenotattained 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Bibleman 4-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Grand Moreland 15-1 8th

11th: HCP, 3+, 1m (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Noble Drama 9-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Diamond Oops 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Math Wizard 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Red Crescent 10-1 6th

12th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Desert General 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Dexter Road 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Just Kidding 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 So Long Chuck 7-2 WON ($13.00)
Hi-5 Play: #12 Kahramani 12-1 7th

P6 Grid:

7: 3-12 (A), 6-10 (B), 9 (C)
8: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 4-10 (A), – (B), 2-9 (C)
10: 7 (A), 8(B), 10 (C)
11: 4-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3x3 = 432 x .20 = $86.40
Budget A’s: 2x3x2x1x3x3 = 108 x .20 = $21.60
Backups: #9 in 7th: (1x3x2x1x3x3 = 54 x .20 = $10.80) + #’s 2-9 in 9th: (2x3x2x1x3x3 = 108 x .20 = $21.60) + #10 in 10th: (2x3x2x1x3x3 = 108 x .20 = $21.60) = $54

P5 Grid:

8: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 4-10 (A), – (B), 2-9 (C)
10: 7 (A), 8(B), 10 (C)
11: 4-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 5-10 (A), 1 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
Budget A’s: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Steve

CANTERBURY PARK ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

10% takeout P5 an irresistible lure, but this opening day sequence is fraught with peril..

Best Value: #5 Blue Jeans N Beer 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Geauxcro 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Royal Creed 5-2 8th
Super Add: #1 Fender Bender 6-1 WON ($16.60)

5th: MN-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Binding Time 12-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Ms Kela Time 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Flash Flood 4-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Baby Gordita 12-1 6th

6th: MN-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Blue Eclipse 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Weekend Ride 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Ray’s Angel 4-1 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #5 El Tizar 6-1 2nd

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Blue Dancer 5-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Twoko Bay 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Most Amusing 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Fayette Warrior 6-1 5th

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Fairly Honest 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Greatest Gal 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Vegan Goes Best 9-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Sweet Sassyfrassy Late SCR

P5 Grid:

4: 3-5 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)
5: 1-6-11 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
6: 2-6-9 (A), 5-7-8 (B), – (C)
7: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 9 (A), – (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x6x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
C Backups: $42 ~ 5th with 9 (2x1x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6) + 8th with 4-8 (2x3x3x2x2= 72 x .50 = $36)

P4 Grid:

5: 1-6-11 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
6: 2-6-9 (A), 5-7-8 (B), – (C)
7: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 8-9 (A), 4(B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $16

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Seanow retains Carmouche and WILL get the lead. There are others interested in the front end, but someone needs to engage them. Fun race with several prices in with real chance including St. Lewis’ War Tocsin who took step forward at 4 before the enforced break..

Most Likely: #6 Binkster 4-1
Best Value: #4 War Tocsin 15-1
Next Best: #1 Syndergaard 5-2
Exotics Use: #10 Kosciuszko 15-1

6th: Ft. Marcy (G2), 4+, 9f-Inner (Empire P6, P3, DD)

Empire 6 force out starts here with a somewhat paceless affair. First time NA Flop Shot has shown ability to attend paces and may be a decent number..

Best Value: #4 Flop Shot 6-1
Next Best: #6 Synchrony 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Instilled Regard 7-2
Super Add: #2 Gucci Factor 6-1

7th: Westchester (G3), 4+, 8.5f (X-C P5, P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Payne’s race before the break was terrific and a repeat of that makes him a factor here. Code of Honor kicks off his 4yo campaign and will get a pace to chase. Endorsed Oaklawn win was excellent and you can project a classic Rosario inside/outside rally for him..

Best Value: #4 Payne 8-1
Next Best: #9 Code of Honor 6-5
Exotics Use: #1 Endorsed 6-1
Super Add: #2 Monongahela 4-1

8th: Intercontinental (G3), F&M-4+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Feels like a good spot for Newspaperofrecord to relaunch her career. She wouldn’t be the first filly to recapture form after being outstanding at 2 and struggling at 3. See Storm Flag Flying as an example. Paul Pompa’s Regal Glory (5-1) may fly under the radar here..

Most Likely: #5 Newspaperofrecord 3-1
Next Best: #7 Regal Glory 5-1
Best Value: #3 Eyeinthesky 20-1
Exotics Use: #12 Significant Form 5-2

CHURCHILL 9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 High Crime 7-2
Best Value: #4 Ace Destroyer 10-1
Next Best: #3 Ikeisgreat 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 My Man Flintstone 8-1

9th: Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Vekoma, Performer SCR’d& Firenze Fire share old school ‘best last race Beyers’ (102’s) that earmark them as the top players. Vekoma’s 4yo debut (7f Sir Shakelton) was stunning at GP and anything in that realm will impact this in a big way. The Marty McGee ‘open air outside box where the air is fresh and clear’ works to his advantage as well and he returns to the site of his MDN win too. Mind Control is 4 for 6 at seven-eighths and rarely misfires. Firenze 4/3-1-0 at less than a mile at BEL. Another step forward from Network Effect makes him a contender..

Most Likely: #10 Mind Control 4-1
Next Best: #11 Vekoma 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Firenze Fire 7-2
Super Add: #5 Network Effect 8-1

CHURCHILL 10th: Dogwood (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Edgeway 3-1
Best Value: #4 Ain’t No Elmers 5-1
Next Best: #2 Four Graces 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Magic Dance 7-2

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

BEL 7: 1-4-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
BEL 8: 5 (A), 7 (B), 3-12 (C)
CD 9: 3-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
BEL 9: 10-11 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
CD 10: 4-8 (A), – (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Best Value: #12 Financialstability 5-1
Next Best: #4 Tale of the Union 8-5
Exotics Use: #6 Quickflash 6-1
Super Add: #9 The Last Ace 8-1

11th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T

Best Value: #3 Mr Jaggers 5-1
Next Best: #6 Lonesome Fugitive 5-2
Exotics Use: #10 Red Storm Risen 15-1
Super Add: #7 Voodoo Zip 3-1

EMPIRE P6 FORCE OUT:

6: 4-5-6
7: 1-4-9
8: 3-5-7-12
9: 1-10-11
10: 4-12
11: 3-6

.20 PLAY: 3x3x4x3x2x2 = 432 x .20 = $86.40

P5 Grid:

7: 4-9 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 3-12 (B), – (C)
9: 10-11 (A), 1 (B), 5 (C)
10: 4-12 (A), – (B), 6 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

8: 5-7 (A), 3-12 (B), – (C)
9: 1-10-11 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
10: 4-6-12 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 7-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

6/5: Belmont Park ($327k P5 C/O)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

$327k P5 C/O starts here..

Carryover sequence is composed of all sprints.. This group has a plethora of front-end types involved which lends itself to Instagrand who makes his first start for Chad Brown and was likely a one turn horse all along. Joel Rosario adds to the appeal. Onemoregreattime should suck along inside behind the speed and can finish. Note speed was good Thursday..

Most Likely: #7 Instagrand 2-1
Next Best: #4 Amundson 5-2
Best Value: #6 The Right Path 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Tribeca 4-1

7th: NY-ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD)

To the inner turf for 2nd leg and there’s no shortage of pace in this set either. Stretch the Story makes seasonal debut here for Clement who’s good with comebackers and under this scenario in general. Alvarado will save ground for a late run. Winifred J & Dancingwithdaffodils get back on the lawn and favored Time Limit SCR, 2nd to Alms in the Matron last fall, makes 3yo bow for Maker. Grass savvy Donk moves Ancient Brown over from main track..

Most Likely: #2 Stretch the Story 7-2
Next Best: #5 Winifred J 6-1
Best Value: #3 Amos 15-1
Exotics Use: #7 Dancingwithdaffodils 8-1

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

As tweeted this morning, I don’t bet hunches, but there can’t be one better today than #12 ‘Break Curfew’. Should #13-AE Cariba draw in, she’s a major player. Otherwise, you might be able to get through this leg with just Catch a Thrill & Voting Agreement.

Most Likely: #8 Voting Agreement 5-2
Next Best: #1 Catch a Thrill 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 China Silk 6-1
Super Add: #4 Bredenbury 4-1

9th: Harmony Lodge, F&M-4+, 6f (DD)

Honey I’m Good the only confirmed lead-needer here, but Mother Mother is a fast drafting type that will be poised to npounce. Royal Charlotte (4yo debut) and Chalon SCRwill be in hot pursuit..

Most Likely: #9 Mother Mother 2-1
Best Value #4 Royal Charlotte 3-1
Next Best: #3 Honey I’m Good 8-1
Exotics Use: #10 Pacific Gale 20-1

10th: MSW, 3+, 6f-Inner Turf

Though the ones with experience are far from hopeless, feels like firsters from Clement (8-1 Uncle George) and Pino (20-1 Arkaan) merit consideration. And from the ‘You Don’t See This Every Day Department’, note that 3 of the 12 here were bred by Fred Hertrich: The Wycoff’s New Frontier (Speightstown); Shadwell’s Arkaan SCR(Into Mischief; bred with partner John Fielding); Alfonso Cammarota’s G C Cam (Liam’s Map)..

Most Likely: #6 Complex System 5-2
Best Value: #9 Uncle George 8-1
Next Best: #8 Propensity 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 New Frontier 8-1

P5 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), – (B), 5-6-8 (C)
7: 2-3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
8: 8 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
9: 4-9 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
10: 6-8-9 (A), 1 (B), 4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
8: 1-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 4-9 (A), 3 (B), (C)
10: 6-8-9 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve