2/29: Gulfstream Park (4th-14th)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST SCRATCHES

4th: Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T/24′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Vitalogy 9-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #10 Famished 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 South Bend 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Life On Top 12-1 7th

5th: Honey Fox, F&M-4+, 1m-T/96′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Will try again with Getmother after Rosario left her with too much to do last time. Junior Alvarado a nice fit for her..

Best Value: #7 Getmotherarose 15-1 WON ($24.80)
Next Best: #11 Valedictorian 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Atomic Blonde 9-2 8th
Super Add: #4 La Feve 6-1 4th

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Plus Que Parfait 3-1 6th
Next Best: #7 McErin 9-2 7th
Best Value: #6 Just Whistle 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Scars Are Cool 5-2 3rd

7th: The Very One (G3), F&M-4+, 11f-T/96′ (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Quite a few making seasonal debuts here and feels like those that are in form are the prefered leans..

Best Value: #5 Cap de Creus 8-1 8th
Next Best: #8 La Signare 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Touriga 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Lemon Zip 9-2 12th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Precise Dancer 4-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Awakened 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Mister Candy Ride 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Hero d’Oro 6-1 10th

9th: Herecomesthebride (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/24′ (Rainbow P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Stunning Sky 10-1 11th
Next Best: #7 Abscond 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Declarationwarrior 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Sunset Promise 12-1 6th

10th: Davona Dale (G2), 3yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Spice Is Nice 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Emily’s Oasis 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Tonalist’s Shape 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Reluctant Bride 15-1 4th

P4 Grid:

7: 2-5-8 (A), 3-6-7-10 (B), – (C)
8: 2 (A), – (B), 4-6(C)
9: 3-7-8-11 (A), 5-10 (B), – (C)
10: 6 (A), – (B), 3-5-9(C)

Simple (A+B): 7x1x6x1 = $42 ($21 for .50)
All A’s: 3x1x4x1 = $12 ($6 for .50)

11th: Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 1m-T/96′ (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Hembree 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Mr Dumas 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Sombeyay 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Caribou Club 6-1 6th

12th: Gulfstream Mile (G2), 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Hog Creek Hustle 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Phat Man 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Mr Freeze 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #7 True Timber 15-1 4th

13th: Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 11f-T/24′ (DD, Hi-5)

Stopped looking back at past charts after awhile, but note that the favorite has won this race 6 of the last 7 runnings (and 9 of the last 11). And while there isn’t much speed signed on here, that’s been true the last 2 years when Zulu Alpha stalked up close and Sadler’s Joy came from far back. Don’t know if this is a spot to get too creative..

Most Likely: #6 Zulu Alpha 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #4 Sadler’s Joy 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Spooky Channel 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Admission Office 15-1 2nd

14th: Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (Hi-5)

I’d be quite happy to see Dennis’ Moment (2-1) run big and fulfill every expectation, but he isn’t a good bet today at a short price. Meanwhile, front end interested parties Chance It (SCR’d), Ete Indien (8-1) and Shotski (10-1) are significantly hindered by outposts, leaving Breen’s As Seen on Tv (9-2) as the compromise candidate at the best price. Mucho Macho Man runner up has been relaxing in the morning with an eye on finishing well and if Paco Lopez gets him to relax behind the contesting outside speeds, he’ll get first run..

Best Value: #6 As Seen on Tv 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Dennis’ Moment 2-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Ete Indien 8-1 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #8 Gear Jockey 20-1 6th

P5 Grid:

10: 6 (A), – (B), 3-9(C)
11: 4-5-7 (A), 1-2-3 (B), – (C)
12: 3-7-9-11 (A), – (B), 5-8-10 (C)
13: 6(A), 4 (B), 3-7-8 (C)
14: 5-6-11(A), – (B), 7-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x4x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (9/5,13,14/9/6,9/11) Paid $382.50 (C-A-A-A-A)

$0.50 Pick-5 (9/5,13,14/9/6,9/11) Paid $7.85 (4OF5)

P4 Grid:

11: 4-5-7 (A), 2-3 (B), 1 (C)
12: 3-7-9-11 (A), – (B), 5-8-10 (C)
13: 6(A), 4 (B), 3-7-8 (C)
14: 5-6-11(A), – (B), 7-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x4x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (5,13,14/9/6,9/11) Paid $110.85 (A-A-A-A)

2/28: Stronach 5 ($167k C/O)

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STRONACH 5

POST-SCRATCHES

LRL 8th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Hand Rail 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Fifteen K 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Crossingthevalley 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Trimmed in Grey 6-1 WON ($8.40)

GP 8th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T/96′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Gosilently 3-1 10th
Best Value: #11 National Honor 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Unlockthepotential 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Leaveematthegate 20-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #5 Discreet Heat 20-1 8th

GG 3rd: MCLM/$25k, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Thatsabadboy 4-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Mister McLean 9-5 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Big Perm 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Gem State 6-1 5th

SA 3rd: MCLM/$50k, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Malibu Cat 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #3 Fresh Face 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Raneen 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Palm d’Oro 4-1 3rd

GP 10th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T/24′ (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Souper Courage 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #1 Ninja Dust 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Sir Hoski 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Spinning Kitten 6-1 DH-4th

P5 Grid:

LRL 8: 3-12 (A), 1-6 (B), 9 (C)
GP 8: 7-11 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
GG 3: 8 (A), – (B), 2-5 (C)
SA 3: 3-5(A), 6-8 (B), – (C)
GP 10: 1-7-9(A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x4x3 = $96
All A’s: 2x2x1x2x3 = $24
C Backups: $72

This C/O situation is good example of how Steve Crist A/B/C/X method saves v. Caveman style (AllxAllxAllxAllxAll)..
Caveman (A+B+C): 5x3x3x4x3 = $540

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T/48′ (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Express Pharoah 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Pricing Exercise 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 This I’ll Defend 7-2 6th
Super Add: #7 Unconquered Lea 8-1 WON ($10.80)

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Ralston a first out 2yo winner and Barboza a LOL 47% with new acquisitions..

Best Value: #1 Ralston 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Cost Basis 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Violent City 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Silver Ratio 7-2 3rd

9th: World of Trouble (G3), 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Lasting Legacy 7-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Epic Dreamer 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Yorkton 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Admiral Lynch 7-2 2nd

10th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-T/108′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Proliferate 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Largent 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Ry’s the Guy 15-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Bourbon War 10-1 10th

11th: Any Limit, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Frank’s Rockette 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #2 Sound Machine 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Yesterdayoncemore 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Tale of Success 12-1 4th

12th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m (Hi-5)

Very odd assembly. Looks like pace should be lively and think you need to use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #7 Zoe’s Delight 15-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Tap the Mojo 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Admire 10-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Manicomio 12-1 11th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-4(C)
9: 2 (A), – (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), – (B), 6-8 (C)
11: 2-5(A), – (B), 1-3 (C)
12: 1-7-8 (A), 3-5-9-11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x2x2x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 2x1x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

9: 2 (A), 8 (B), 1-4 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), 6-8 (B), 1-4(C)
11: 2-5(A), – (B), 1-3 (C)
12: 1-5-7-8-9 (A), 3-11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 1x2x2x5 = 20 x .50 = $10

CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

TAMPA 8th: Lightening City, F&M-4+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Jean Elizabeth 3-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #14 R Happy Ending 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Ambassador Luna 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Escapade 4-1 5th

AQUEDUCT 7th: NY-OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Joe’s Smokin Gun 5-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Playwright 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #3 Carthon 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Big Mountain 9-2 6th

OAKLAWN 7th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Arrival 15-1 6th
Next Best: #7 My Sixth Sense 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Knicks Go 7-2 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #5 Street to Indy 6-1 4th

TAMPA 10th: MCLM/$16k, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Masterio 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Agripino Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Gator Posse 15-1 WON ($31.00)
Super Add: #5 Flug 15-1 8th

OAKLAWN 9th: Downthedustyroad-AR, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bye Bye J 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #3 Georgia’s Reward 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Dutch Treat 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Blushing Bella 8-1 6th

X-C P5 Grid:

TAM 8: 9-14 (A), – (B), 3-11 (C)
AQU 7: 1-4 (A), 3 (B), 6 (C)
OP 7: 4-5-6-7 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
TAM 10: 78/SCR-9 (A), 1-3-5-4-6 (B), – (C)
OP 9: 9(A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x8x1 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x2x4x3x1 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-5 (6,8,9,10,12/1/4/7/6,8,9,11) Paid $544.50(A-A-A-A-A)

OAKLAWN

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Arrival 15-1 6th
Next Best: #7 My Sixth Sense 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Knicks Go 7-2 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #5 Street to Indy 6-1 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Morning Snow 7-5 7th
Best Value: #7 Fast Talking 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Tough Love 9-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Candy Cornell 4-1 4th

9th: Downthedustyroad-AR, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bye Bye J 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #3 Georgia’s Reward 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Dutch Treat 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Blushing Bella 8-1 6th

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f

Most Likely: #1 O Seraphina 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #11 Cloudbuster 15-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Island Sky 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Best Intentions 5-1 4th

P4 Grid:

7: 4-5-6-7 (A), 1-2-9 (B), – (C)
8: 1-4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-9(A), 4 (B), 2 (C)
10: 1(A), – (B), 4-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x3x3x1 = 63 x .50 = $31.50
All A’s: 4x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/1/6,8,9,11/1,10) Paid $47.35(A-A-A-A)

2/20: Gulfstream ($200k P5 C/O)

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GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 5f-T/108′ (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Stormy Nelly 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #1 R Kiss Em Goodbye 8-5 6th
Best Value: #5 Little Bella 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Cavernndchipmunks 4-1 4th

7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Fancy Fox, Worth Avenue & Mary Lee have class edge dropping from richer levels..

Most Likely: #4 Fancy Fox 5-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Mary Lee and Me 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Worth Avenue 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Shall Return 20-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 5f-T/48′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Sir Seamus 2-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Memorable Election 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #7 Shanghai Levi 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Goldenlineof 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $61.30
$1 Trifecta (2-3-7) Paid $349.90
$1 Superfecta (2-3-7-4) Paid $762.30

9th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Flat Awesome Jenny 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #5 R Prerogative 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 My Saratoga Star 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Lady Fiorella 8-1 5th

10th: MCLM/$16k, F&M-4+, 1m-T/108′ (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Wild About This 4-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Bulldat 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Rosasparks 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Always Lucky 3-1 6th

P6 P5 Grid:

6: 1-7(A), 5-6 (B), 2-4 (C)
7: 3-4-9 (A), – (B), 5-8(C)
8: 4 (A), – (B), 2(C)
9: 5-7-8 (A), – (B), 3-4-6 (C)
10: 8-9 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 3-4-9 (A), – (B), 5-8(C)
8: 2-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 5-7-8 (A), – (B), 3-4-6 (C)
10: 8-9 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

10th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Synchrony 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Factor This 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Next Best: #5 Dontblamerocket 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Midnight Tea Time 12-1 4th

11th: Rachel Alexandra (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Nothing clever to say here. British Idiom has trained right along after brief post-BC break and should get a catbird seat behind the speed(s)..

Most Likely: #6 British Idiom 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Finite 2-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Swiss Skydiver 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Ursula 8-1 7th

12th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Enforceable appears to get pace to chase and an extra 16th to work with..

Most Likely: #8 Enforceable 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Silver State 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Moon Over Miami 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Digital 6-1 5th

13th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 9f (Hi-5)

He has a tendency to wait on foes, but think Anneau d’Or is simply best of this group and hope blinkers provides definition for his obvious ability. Host of possibilities after top choice, but Mr. Big News looks sneaky here for Chet Thomas & Calhoun at 20-1. By Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare (!), he’s improved with every start and should relish added distance. Ideal ‘underneath’ key type..

Most Likely: #8 Anneau d’Or 9-5 9th
Best Value: #3 Mr. Big News 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Lynn’s Map 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Modernist 8-1 WON ($27.60)
Super/Hi-5: #10 Finnick the Fierce 10-1 7th

P4 Grid:

10: 2-4-5 (A), – (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 6-7(A), 2-3 (B), 1 (C)
12: 2-8 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
13: 8 (A), 3-9 (B), 1-5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x2x1 = $12 ($6 for .50)

CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

AQUEDUCT 7th:

Wild start to very tough sequence. Should be plenty of pace here..

Best Value: #6 Bustin Hoffman 5-1 13th
Next Best: #8 Bulwark 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Centrist 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Ten Twenty Nine 12-1 6th

TAMPA 8th: Pelican, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mucho returns here for Mott while Hofburg comes back at FG in the Mineshaft. Note that Ray Mamone & Luis Carvajal potentially have a new Imperial Hint in Debbie’s Passion..

Best Value: #2 Debbie’s Passion 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Killybegs Captain 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #9 He Hate Me 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Mucho 9-2 4th

TAMPA 9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Another tricky read involving barn changes, surface switches, long layoff returnees, et al..

Most Likely: #7 Bucky’s Drama 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Sanguine 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Miahsolomiah 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Flaming Indy 20-1 6th

OAKLAWN 6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Alpha Sixty Six 2-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Play the Wildcard 9-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Something Natural 9-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Life On the Road 8-1 3rd

TAMPA 10th: Minaret, F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

In a rough sequence, would be nice to lean on GSW (graded stakes winner) Lady’s Island who faced males last time in the SunMill Sprint cross-state. She’s the speed of the speed but pressure could come in waves with Midtown Rose, Ountsville & Proposition all possessing early lick..

Most Likely: #3 Lady’s Island 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #9 Into Chocolate 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Midtown Rose 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Boujie Girl 8-1 8th

P5 Grid:

1: 6-8 (A), 7-12 (B), 1-3 (C)
2: 2-7(A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
3: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), 3-5-9(C)
4: 2-7-9 (A), – (B), 1-3-4 (C)
5: 3(A), – (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18