10/19: Far Hills/Belmont X-C P5

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

FAR HILLS/BELMONT CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

FAR HILLS 4th: Foxbrook Hurdle, 4+, 18f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Snap Decision 8-5 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #6 Markhan 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Days Without End 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Belisarius 6-1 8th

FAR HILLS 5th: New Jersey Hunt Cup, 3+, 12f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Deposit 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Surprise Twist 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Aldous Snow 10-1 10th
Super Add: #7 Lunaire 6-1 4th

FAR HILLS 6th: Grand National (G1), 4+, 21f-National Fences (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Wicklow Brave 3-1 DNF-Fell last fence
Best Value: #11 Brain Power 8-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #8 Scorpiancer 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Jury Duty 4-1 4th

9th: Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Fifty Five 6-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #3 War Canoe 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Dream Passage SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Wish Upon 20-1 2nd

10th: Empire Distaff-NY, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #4 Our Super Nova 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Ratajkowski 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Midnight Disguise 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Newly Minted 5-2 4th

X-C P5 Grid:

FH 4: 1(A), 3-6 (B), 2-5-8 (C)
FH 5: 3-6-7-9 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
FH 6: 6-11(A), – (B), 4-8 (C)
BEL 9: 4(A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
BEL 10: 1-4-9-10(A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x4x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

10/16: Keeneland (5th-8th)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Party Goer 12-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Pass the Plate 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Luck Money 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Edgee Angel 6-1 8th

6th: OC/N2L, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Cofactor 5-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #7 Joysome 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Blood Curdling 5-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Josie 5-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Crosswalk 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Emaraaty 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Patriot Drive 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Tigers Rule 8-1 5th

8th: MCLM/$30k, F&M-3+, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Takechargmatriarch 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 I’mabarnkat 8-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #10 It’s a Ford 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Stolen Beauty 4-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #8 Traci’s Greeley 30-1 4th

P4 Grid:

5: 4-6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 3-7 (A), 5-6 (B), – (C)
7: 1-5 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)
8: 5-6-10 (A), 8-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Back up C: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!

10/12: Keeneland (6th-10th; X-C P5)

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KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Shackadelic 10-1: Half to Proforma totes KEE gate bullet..11th
Next Best: #4 Day Dayenu 3-1: Ran well in debut after clunky start..8th
Exotics Use: #5 Take Charge Patti 20-1: Adds Lasix in 2nd start; May get lead..7th
Super Add: #3 Loaded 12-1: SW dam was fast early; Rusty a KEE assassin..2nd

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tough read. Fast Boat’s last was career best, but he’s always regressed off big efforts. Carotari tanked in the KY Downs G3, but it was his first time past 5.5f and the undulating course isn’t for everyone. Other than the meaningless off/turf experience, I Can Do Anything has never run a bad race for Stan Hough. Peter Miller has clearly had a high opinion of Texas Wedge who’s knocked heads with some of the Division’s big guns..

Best Value: #2 Carotari 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Texas Wedge 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 I Can Do Anything 5-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Fast Boat 4-1 WON ($8.40)

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Four of the top players here are first off the claim (Driven to Compete, Curate, Conquest Big E, Belle Tapisserie) and 2 more are 2nd/claim (Always a Suspect, Cautious Giant). Within those sets, Eddie Kenneally (Conquest Big E) is stunning 40% 1st/claim with his last 40 for a $2.90 (!) ROI..

Most Likely: #9 Curate 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Conquest Big E 5-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Belle Tapisserie 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Driven to Compete 8-1 10th

9th: QEII Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD, Hi-5)

The tendency spots like this is to acquiesce to Chad Brown entrants, but this feels VERY competitive and there is absolutely no pace signed on at all complicating matters. Castle Lady is a serious Godolphin invader and Cafe Americano the most tactical of the Brown runners. McPeek’s Prinesa Carolina is forward-going and the Queen’s Magnetic Charm is going to overlooked..

Most Likely: #5 Castle Lady 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Princesa Carolina 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Cafe Americano 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Magnetic Charm 12-1 6th

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Club Car 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Getridofwhatailesu 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #12 Nettleton 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 First Wave 5-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Crown Jewel 10-1 10th

P5 Grid:

6: 4-10 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 3-10 (B), 4-11 (C)
8: 9-10 (A), 11(B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 6 (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), – (B), 5-7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

7: 2-7 (A), 3-10 (B), – (C)
8: 9-10-11(A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 4-5-6 (A), – (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 5-12 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Perjury Trap 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Starting Over 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ashaar 3-1 WON ($11.40)
Super Add: #6 Hemlock 7-2 5th

9th: Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (DD)

Rosario (42% with Brown barn) will need to motivate lightly raced New and Improved on a timely basis. Note that Souper Escape is going to be isolated on the lead and enters with best last race fig on several barometers..

Most Likely: #5 New and Improved 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Souper Escape 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Olendon 5-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Ledecka 12-1 6th

Cross Country P5 Grid (4:40p ET):

BEL 8: 1-5 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
KEE 8: 9-10 (A), 11(B), 2-4-8 (C)
BEL 9: 5-7 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-4-6 (C)
KEE 9: 4-5-6 (A), – (B), 3-7-9 (C)
KEE 10: 1-4 (A), 12 (B), 5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A’s: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Might not be much of a betting affair, but worth highlighting with Lucky Dime a half to Mitole, Harlem Heights a half to Point of Entry/Pine Island, etc., and Highland Glory a full to Highland Sky..

Best Value: #3 Harlem Heights 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Highland Glory 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Always a Queen 4-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Maedean 3-1 WON ($9.80)

5th: BEL Turf Sprint, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

The Lucky Coin trifecta back for this and merit respect, but new faces Hawkish (6-1) and Fully Vested (12-1) are competitive and nicely priced..

Best Value: #4 Hawkish 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Final Frontier 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Fully Vested 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Disco Partner 7-5 5th

6th: Matron (G3), 2yo-F, 6f-IT (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Pure Wow 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Karak 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Alms 1-1 WON ($3.30)
Super Add: #3 Time Limit 10-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Boys Division of 4th race with more pedigrees on parade including Tapage (out of Hystericalady), Jedi Master (half top Battle of Midway), Sonneman (out of Zardana) and debuting Vintage Print (Curlin), the $1,800,000 KEE’18 yearling for Larry Best. Deep and important-looking group going forward..

Best Value: #11 Cost Basis 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Sonneman 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Tapage 10-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Mo and Go 9-2 10th

8th: Hill Prince (G2), 3yo, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Neptune’s Storm 8-1 WON ($22.40)
Next Best: #7 Standard Deviation 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Digital Age 9-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Taos 15-1 9th

9th: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Zulu Alpha 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Sadler’s Joy 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Channel Maker 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Ya Primo 6-1 7th

10th: Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)

Even with SCR of Three Technique, this is a terrific Champagne. Tiz the Law is fastest coming in and merits long look as upseter, but that missed time for 2yo shin hiccup gives Green Light Go a slight edge. Alpha Sixty Six is the workmate of Breeders Futurity favorite Gouverneur Morris (KEE 10th) and right in line with the top pair. Gozilla is a 2yo people seem to want to hate on, but he fits with this cast..

Most Likely: #3 Green Light Go 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tiz the Law 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Alpha Sixty Six 5-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Gozilla 6-1 4th

11th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T

Oopha. Mysterious group to close out very tricky sequences..

Best Value: #9 War Stopper 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Sul Moon 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 U S Army Corps 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Country Grammer 8-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 8-11 (A), 1-9 (B), 2-3-12 (C)
8: 5-7-8(A), – (B), 1-2-3 (C)
9: 1-6 (A), 7 (B), 2-3-5(C)
10: 3-7(A), – (B), 1 (C)
11: 6-9 (A), – (B), 4-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

8: 5-7-8(A), 1-2-3 (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-7 (A), 2-3-5(B), – (C)
10: 3-7(A), – (B), 1 (C)
11: 6-9 (A), – (B), 4-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x6x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Leinster 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Imprimus 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Extravagent Kid 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Satellite Storm 15-1 8th

7th: TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Ours to Run 7-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Mia Mischief 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Chalon 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Spiced Perfection 7-2 WON ($10.20)

8th: First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Vasilika 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Uni 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #11 Rushing Fall 9-5 4th
Super Add: #2 Awesometank 15-1 6th

9th: Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 By Your Side 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Gouverneur Morris 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Tap It to Win 3-1 10th
Super Add: #8 Ajaaweed 3-1 4th

10th: Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

After the Vanderbilt effort, I was shocked that Biancone opted for this spot with Diamond Oops. But he’s improved with every start this year, is proven on turf and tactically fast. Dangerous under Leparoux at mammoth price..

Best Value: #7 Diamond Oops 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Valid Point 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Bowie’s Hero 8-1 WON ($18.40)
Super Add: #9 First Premio 12-1 4th

P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-9 (A), – (B), 6-8 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-8 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 11 (B), 2-7 (C)
9: 2-10 (A), 1-8 (B), 5-6(C)
10: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), 3-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4x3 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A’s: 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Street of Dreams 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Motu 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Further Lane 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Mom’s Pass 9-2 7th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Rising Seas 6-1 4th

P4 Grid:

8: 4-6 (A), 11 (B), 2-7 (C)
9: 1-2-8-10 (A), – (B), 5-6(C)
10: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), 3-8-9 (C)
11: 8-12(A), 4-5 (B), 3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x4x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/6/5/12) Paid $978.95~ (A-C-A-A) $84

10/4: Keeneland (Opening Day)

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KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Including this for notable first time starters including Selleck (Half to Caleb’s Posse), J Rob (Half to Ever So Lucky) & Beau Lane’s Blip (Half to STK and KEE debut winner Blip N’ Th Bye)..

Most Likely: #4 Energizer 9-2 5th
Next Best: #11 Blip 6-1 9th
Best Value: #9 J Rob 12-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Lykan 6-1 WON ($44.20)

6th: OC/N2L, 2yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

As discussed last week with Saffie Joseph, Sound Machine may be a very nice filly..

Most Likely: #4 Sound Machine 7-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Into Humor 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Understandable 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Evil Lyn 3-1 5th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

First of split divisions with the 10th and very treacherous..

Most Likely: #6 Craft Woods 2-1: Just missed at KD; Adds hood, J. Ortiz..WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #7 English Escort 20-1: Out of turf router, stretches & adds Lasix..7th
Next Best: #9 Snaffle 6-1: Another via turf dam that stretches and adds Lasix..6th
Exotics Use: #5 Regal Passage 15-1: Devaux 1sters firing; Half to JMS’s Touchofstarquality..3rd
Super Add: #11 Kona Kai 12-1 5th

8th: Phoenix (G2), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Promises Fulfilled is defending champ and stayed home for this, but he’s going to face pace pressure and doesn’t have to win..

Best Value: #8 Engage 8-1 WON ($21.00)
Next Best: #7 Promises Fulfilled 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Recruiting Ready 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Hog Creek Hustle 5-1 5th

9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Alandra 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Perfect Alibi 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Three D Flag 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 British Idiom 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Hi-5 Play: #5 Micheline 8-1 9th

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Yeesh.. If you make it this far, you could have your heart ripped out here. Note the #14, #15, #16 all drew in and have real chance..

Most Likely: #16 Lucky Polly 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Across 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #7 Enthroned 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Osaka Girl 7-2 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #14 Creative Legacy 12-1 10th

P5 Grid:

6: 4 (A), – (B), 5-8 (C)
7: 6-7-9 (A), – (B), 5-11 (C)
8: 7-8(A), 4-6 (B), 1-3-10 (C)
9: 2-4-7 (A), 5-6-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
10: 10-16 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/6,13,14,15,16/8/6/10) Paid $33.40 ~ (4OF5)

P4 Grid:

7: 6-7-9 (A), – (B), 5-11 (C)
8: 7-8(A), 4-6 (B), 1-3-10 (C)
9: 2-4-7 (A), 5-6-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
10: 10-16 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (6,13,14,15,16/8/6/10) Paid $264.65