11/9: Stronach 5 ($51k C/O)

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STRONACH 5

POST-SCRATCHES

Leg A: LRL 8-CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f

Most Likely: #11 When It Reigns 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Thalia’s Song 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Bourbonstreetlady 9-2 WON ($6.20)

Leg B: GPW 8-OC/S-ALW, 2yo-F, 6f

Spread race with 1-2-4-5-6-7 appearing capable..

Most Likely: #7 Mrs. Crews 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Midtown Rose 9-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Corn Off the Cob 8-1 3rd

Leg C: LRL 9-MCLM/$25k, 2yo-F, 6f

Most Likely: #8 Yesterdaysplan 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Nomocats 6-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Myladycharlotte 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Molly’s Dolly 15-1 11th

Led D: GPW 9-CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T

Most Likely: #4 Coniston 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Sensational Sam 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Put the Hat Back 10-1 8th

Leg E: GG 4-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T

Most Likely: #7 Sunrise Journey 5-2 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #1 Synnin 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Elegant Turner 2-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Big League 6-1 8th

P5 Grid:

A: 10-11 (A), – (B), 6(C)
B: 4-7(A), – (B), 1-2-6 (C)
C: 8 (A), 7-9-11 (B), – (C)
D: 3-4 (A), – (B), 12 (C)
E: 1-7(A), – (B), 4-5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x2x2 = $64
All A’s: 2x2x1x2x2 = $16

11/3: Breeders’ Cup Saturday

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CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ BREEDERS CUP

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Uber Kirk 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Tiz Mischief 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Mo’s Mojo 5-1 2nd

2nd: Cherokee Run, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Very nice group including return of Audible and while this is hardly his goal, he’s worked well for return and needs to be respected. Super Sol may be emerging for top connections..

Most Likely: #12 Super Sol 4-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Audible 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #8 Kowboy Karma 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Dak Attack 12-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #10 Aveenu Malcainu 15-1 8th

3rd: BC Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Marley the first of several favorites on slate that look imposing (and winners) if they run their A races. Golden Mischief avoided top company until last and comes in as a mojo miss for Cox. Finley is less consistent these days but loves this surface and can adjust her style. Highway Star 3rd off break and likes 7/8ths. Shamrock Rose jumped up at KEE in the Raven Run..

Best Value: #5 Golden Mischief 10-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Marley’s Freedom 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Finley’sluckycharm 10-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Highway Star 20-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #14 Shamrock Rose 20-1 WON ($53.80)

4th: BC Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

World of Trouble was good on the main track but other-worldly with move to lawn and may simply blitz this bunch. But at 15-1, stablemate Vision Perfect has a lot of appeal figuring to get an up-close stalking trip with Castellano. I’m going to hope that those 2 are enough to survive here. There are countless players to feather in, so don’t be shy to use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #4 Vision Perfect 15-1 13th
Next Best: #11 World of Trouble 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Havana Grey 20-1 12th
Super Add: #13 Will Call 20-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Lost Treasure 20-1 7th

5th: BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Seem like many are panning for upset gold here and I’m not convinced it’s necessary. Catalina Cruiser & City of Light come in to this with sparkling resumes, sharp worktabs and it feels like one or the other wins the majority of runnings. Firenze Fire is terrific at the one turn mile as evidenced in his Champagne, Jerome & Dwyer wins. Seeking the Soul settled for this spot and a repeat of his Ack Ack makes him a player. Isotherm can boost exotics..

Most Likely: #10 Catalina Cruiser 8-5 6th
Next Best: #1 City of Light 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #7 Firenze Fire 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Seeking the Soul 5-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #3 Isotherm 20-1 9th

P5 Grid:

1: 2-6(A), 5 (B), 1-7-8 (C)
2: 3-12 (A), 8-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
3: 5-13 (A), 11 (B), 10-14(C)
4: 4-11 (A), – (B), 5-6-8-9(C)
5: 1-10 (A), – (B), 3-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

2: 3-12 (A), 8-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
3: 5-11-13 (A), – (B), 10-14(C)
4: 4-10-11 (A), – (B), 5-6-8-9(C)
5: 1-10 (A), 6-7 (B), 3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

6th: BC Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 11f-T (P6, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H:USA (1) vs. Europe (2)

Race starts on the turn which challenges the out-posted and having quality players like Fourstarcrook and Wild Illusion well drawn makes decisions easier. Fourstarcrook is about as plucky a horse as you’ll find and can cement her legacy today. Wild Illusion has made a bold impression since arriving. Was looking forward to playing Eziyra, but Dettori will have to be perfect to work out a trip with the Weld miss..

Most Likely: #1 Fourstarcrook 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Wild Illusion 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sistercharlie 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #14 Eziyra 15-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Magic Wand 5-1 4th

7th: BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P5, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Have struggled with this race more than any other with an Imperial Hint-Promises Fulfilled confrontation looming. A pace collapse isn’t impossible, but the X Y Jet defection took some pressure out of the kettle. Spreading in the last leg of the middle P4 and taking stand that one or the other of the top 2 survive to start the P5..

Best Value: #2 Promises Fulfilled 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Imperial Hint 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Limousine Liberal 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Whitmore 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #6 Always Sunshine 20-1 9th

P4 Grid:

4: 4-11 (A), – (B), 5-6-8-9(C)
5: 1-10 (A), 3-7 (B), 3-7 (C)
6: 1-3-6(A), – (B), 10-14 (C)
7: 2-5-8 (A), 1-6-9(B), 3-4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

8th: BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H:USA (1) vs. Europe (2$19.00)

This race was victimized by the overly ambitious KY state veterinarian who thinks they know Freddy Head’s filly better Freddy Head knows her. The forcing of Polydream from the Mile was shameful and stands to have a lasting negative impact for the Cup with International connections. Freddy Head won 2 Miles on Miesque and 3 as the trainer of Goldikova. If a vet thinks that he’d run a compromised Polydream on this stage, they shouldn’t be employed by a racing jurisdiction..

As for what’s left without Polydream, will spread a bit here and key the ones that are the best price..

Best Value: #7 Expert Eye 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #2 Next Shares 10-1 13th
Exotics Use: #14 Mustashry 15-1 11th
Super Add: #3 Happily 15-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Oscar Performance 6-1 14th

9th: BC Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Abel Tasman one of those faves that wins with an “A” race. The question is where she stands coming after the stunning flop in the Zenyatta. Midnight Bisou & Monomoy Girl give you viable alternatives and there are numerous puncher chance options beyond the top 3. Bisou has been consistent, looks to get an advantageous trip and is the most inviting price..

Best Value: #7 Midnight Bisou 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Abel Tasman 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Monomoy Girl 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #1 Champagne Problems 12-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Blue Prize 6-1 4th

2-day DBL:

J-Fillies: 4-10 (A), 1-7(B), 2-3-8 (C)
Distaff: 2 (A), 1-11(B), 5-7-10 (C)

$1 DBL (7-11) Paid $23.20

10th: BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H:Enable-GB (1$18.00) vs. the Field (2)

Enable a special filly and faces a Turf field that certainly doesn’t look tougher than what she bested in the Arc while less than 100%. Has looked terrific since getting here and handles any king of footing. Waldgeist is the “B” alternative with Robert Bruce and Magical as “C” players..

Most Likely: #2 Enable 1-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #12 Waldgeist 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Robert Bruce 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Magical 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Sadler’s Joy 30-1 3rd

2-day DBL:

J-Turf: 5-14 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-10-12 (C)
Turf: 2(A), 4-12 (B), 5-7-11 (C)

$1 DBL (5-2) Paid $12.40

11th: BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H:Mendelssohn (1) vs. Thunder Snow (2)

This should be a wildly entertaining edition of the Classic with a perfect variety of styles coming together. I’ll continue to use the core five I featured in the Xpressbet Wagering Guide while moving West Coast up into the body of the “A” tabs. Many can win this race and nearly any approach is viable with the pace scenario and adjustments to it being the determinant. It seems implausible that anyone could wire, but any of the vanguard players can succeed if they get comfortable stalking and that includes Accelerate with Rosario providing a template for the voyage Friday on ‘wide every step’ Game Winner. Collapses have occurred many times in Churchill Classics, so the late chargers figure in to your exotics plays at the very least. Should be a thrilling finish to the 2 day wagerfest. Enjoy!

Most Likely: #6 McKinzie 6-1 12th
Next Best: #11 Mind Your Biscuits 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 West Coast 5-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Yoshida 10-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Axelrod 30-1 9th

2-day DBL:

Juvenile: 6-9(A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-13 (C)
Classic: 6-7-11 (A), – (B), 9-10-14(C)

$1 DBL (9-14) Paid $21.60

P5 Grid:

7: 2-5 (A), – (B), 1-8-9(C)
8: 2-7(A), 3-14 (B), 5-12 (C)
9: 2-7-11(A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2(A), – (B), 4-12 (C)
11: 6-7-11 (A), 10-12-14(B), 1-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 2-7(A), 3-14 (B), 5-12 (C)
9: 2-7-11(A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-12 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
11: 6-7-11 (A), 10-12-14(B), 1-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/11/2/14,15,16) Paid $157.95

12th: Chilukki (G2), F&M-3+, 1m

Best Value: #1 Moonlit Garden Late SCR
Next Best: #6 Divine Miss Grey 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Shenandoah Queen 7-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Berned 8-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

9: 2-7-11(A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-12 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
11: 6-7-11 (A), 10-12-14(B), 1-8-9 (C)
12: 16(A), 3-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (11/2/14,15,16/1,2,5,6) Paid $43.80 x 2 = $87.60

11/2 (CD): Breeders’ Cup Friday

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CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 35th BREEDERS’ CUP

POST-SCRATCHES

Here it is! The annual ‘Breeders’ Cup invocation’. These 2 days offer unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they’ve become. No matter how well you ‘handicap’ the races, fields (and course conditions) this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an ‘0-fer’ well into Saturday and get it all back (and more) in the weekend’s waning moments. But no matter how the ledger looks when it’s over, appreciate that your ability as a horseplayer won’t be defined over the course of 2 days. Spend as freely as you can affordband here’s hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.

For the 13th year in a row, it’s been a pleasure bringing the Cup to everyone listening. I hope the 15 hours here and the time leading up offered each of you something you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Churchill Downs, Breeders’ Cup, ATR sponsors, regulars and everyone who contributed so generously to the shows and most importantly, the listeners.. Let’s get lucky this weekend!

1st: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Nearly no speed here at all..

Most Likely: #1 Mo’s M V P 7-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Stronger Than Ever 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Enthrall 5-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Sweet Legacy 7-2 5th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Looks like a group that could be productive going forward..

Most Likely: #8 Straight Shot 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Gray Attempt 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Admire 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Captain Von Trapp 2-1 2nd

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Race that renders the early P4/P5 as nearly unplayable. At least 7 of them can win..

Most Likely: #1 Casses Story 5-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Sharehiolder Value 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Patch 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Heavy Roller 10-1 5th

4th: Street Sense, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Baffert got off to a good start at session with Mother Mother winning the filly counterpart event to this with Mother Mother and Improbable looks poised to follow suit..

Most Likely: #2 Improbable 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #5 Moonster 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Trophy Chaser 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Louder Than Bombs 8-1 6th

5th: BC Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

First turf event of the Cup and there is simply no way to know what we’re going to get. The pristine inside part of the course may be boggy and the outer paths are a mangled mix of dead grass. The Euro jocks told Nick Luck that the course was heavy and inconsistent in softness, so expect some horses to get mired or lose their action in spots. Figure yielding/soft designation today and look for horses that have shown an ability to get over different designations of turf..

The fact that Soldier’s Call faced elders in the Prix de l’Abbaye is just one element of his appeal here. He’s seasoned, gotten over all kinds of ground, can lead or sit up close and has made a positive impression in his time here including a blast out of the gate on Tuesday. Stillwater Cove gets back to a sharp sprint after the Natalma mile experiment proved out of her reach. Irad back aboard and their effort in the Bolton Landing would fit well here. Bulletin was mighty impressive breaking maiden for TPletch and looks like a colt that can go or stalk and lands Castellano. By City Zip, should handle the unsure footing. Both 12-1, So Perfect & Well Done Fox are experienced imports that have kept good company..

Most Likely: #2 Soldier’s Call 9-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Stillwater Cover 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Bulletin 10-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #10 So Perfect 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Well Done Fox 12-1 11th

6th: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H: USA (1$13.00) vs Europe (2)

Newspaperofrecord an acclimation horse for most off sparkling Spa debut and dazzling Miss Grillo. Further confidence comes from fact those wins came over yielding surfaces. She drew well while potential upsetters did not and with tricky reads coming after this event, she makes sense as a multi-race single. Plenty of fun horses to include underneath including My Gal Betty who is being largely ignored. East won’t be 20-1 despite the 14 hole. Concrete Rose saves all the ground under Lezcano. Baltas was desperate to get Lady Prancealot into this race..

Most Likely: #6 Newspaperofrecord 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #13 My Gal Betty 20-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Concrete Rose 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #14 East 20-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Lady Prancealot 30-1 14th

7th: BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Bellafina the first of 8 first or second ML choices widely drawn this weekend with (#14/14 Anthony Van Dyck, #13/14 Marley’s Freedom, #10/10 Catalina Cruiser, #9/9 Roy H, #10/10 Monomoy Girl, #12/13 Waldgeist & #14/14 Accelerate. Has clear paper edge on this group coming in, but reminds me of Bolt d’Oro going into last year’s Juvenile. Expect Prat to be more conscious of ground loss than Nakatani was, but there’s also the matter of at least 2-3 inside speeds to deal with. Can win of course, but feels very shaky. Hernandez moved too soon on Restless Rider in the Spinaway, a lesson he applied immediately in the Alcibiades. Can sit behind the speeds and move as she did in her Debutante win here in June. Reflect offers value as filly that moved forward first time around 2 turns, a feature that Dueling carries later in the Juvenile Boys. (He drew the #1 too)..

Most Likely: #4 Restless Rider 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Bellafina 2-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Reflect 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Jaywalk 7-2 WON ($13.00)
Super Add: #2 Serengeti Empress 7-2 7th

2-day DBL:

J-Fillies: 4-10 (A), 1-7(B), 2-3-8 (C)
Distaff: 2 (A), 1-11 (B), 5-7-10 (C)

8th: BC Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, J-Turf/Turf DBL, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H: USA (1) vs. Europe (2$21.00)

Anthony Van Dyck has a significant form edge on this field and while some of that edge may be muted by the extreme draw, you get Ryan Moore to figure out a trip. I’m sticking with him as the top choice with the thought that he will be under-bet in reaction to the post. If he pays $10.80, it will feel like stealing money. Line of Duty a viable alternative to the top tab and U.S. hopes rest well with Uncle Benny & Forty Under..

Most Likely: #14 Anthony Van Dyck 4-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Line of Duty 10-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #2 Uncle Benny 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Forty Under 5-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Current 5-1 7th

2-day DBL:

J-Turf: 5-14 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-10-12 (C)
Turf: 2 (A), 4-12 (B), 5-7-11 (C)

9th: BC Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Juvy-Classic DBL, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H: Complexity (1) vs. Game Winner (2$14.00)

This look to come down to a showdown between Baffert (Game Winner) & Brown (Complexity), but Hollendorfer (Dueling/Gunmetal Gray) is in position to pounce should both falter. Complexity may have a tactical edge, but he’s going to try to win on the front end, he’ll be tested every single jump. Wild card exotics invaders abound at bonus mutuels here including Mr. Money (30-1), Topper T (30-1) and Well Defined (20-1)..

NOTE:Code of Honorhas SCR’dwith a temperature..

Most Likely: #9 Game Winner 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #6 Complexity 5-2 10th
Best Value: #1 Dueling 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Standard Deviation 12-1 13th
Super Add: #2 Mr. Money 30-1 4th

2-day DBL:

Juvenile: 6-9(A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-13 (C)
Classic: 6-7-11 (A), – (B), 9-10-14 (C)

P5 Grid:

5: 2-4-5(A), – (B), 3-8-10 (C)
6: 6(A), – (B), 1-13-14 (C)
7: 1-4-10 (A), – (B), 2-7-8 (C)
8: 5-14 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-10-12-13 (C)
9: 6-9(A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (5/6,15,16/7/5/9,11) Paid $627.40 (A-A-C-A-A) ~ $171 Play

P4 Grid:

6: 6(A), – (B), 1-13-14 (C)
7: 1-4-7-10 (A), 2-3-8 (B), – (C)
8: 2-5-14 (A), 4-12 (B), 7-10 (C)
9: 6-9(A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x7x5x4 = 140 x .50 = $70
All A’s: 1x4x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 All A’s Pick-4 (6,15,16/7/5/9,11) Paid $91.40

10th: Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (Jackpot Hi-5)

Brendan Walsh IS the Marathon Man..

Most Likely: #8 Honorable Duty 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Big Dollar Bill 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Rocketry 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Dabster 9-2 2nd

P4 Grid:

7: 4-10 (A), – (B), 1-7(C)
8: 2-5-14 (A), 4-12 (B), 7-10 (C)
9: 6-9(A), – (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 7-8-10(A), 1-2-5-6-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x8 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/5/9,11/3,10) Paid $199.60 (C-A-A-A)

10/6: BEL (6th-11th); KEE (6th-10th)

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BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 2nd Turf Sprint Invt., 3+, 6f-IT (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Disco Partner 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #7 Pocket Change 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Pure Sensation 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Blind Ambition 9-2 2nd

8th: 78th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Don’t take anything for granted here. On paper, entire field is separated by 2 lengths on their best. Will come down to how hot the pace is with Divine Miss Grey & Come Dancing certain to go early and Farrell likely to get back to comfort zone on/near..

Best Value: #7 Berned 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Wow Cat 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Verve’s Tale 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Teresa Z 10-1 4th

9th: 43rd Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Raging Bull obviously the horse to beat, but there is no authentic speed here and an aggressive approach by an ambitious jock could impact the dynamics..

Most Likely: #3 Raging Bull 6-5 5th
Best Value: #2 Prioritize 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Have At It 8-1 WON ($24.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Cullum Road 10-1 7th

10th: 146th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)

Terrific cast of 10 for this historic event and lineup is peppered with Florida (Trophy Chaser), California (Listing) and Jersey (Successful Zip) invaders. Klarman/Brown fave Complexity the one to (potentially) catch and beat and note that Pletcher’s Brunetti homebred King for a Day, (3rd against him in their upstate debuts), graduated Thursday with a 93 Beyer. Regarding company lines, Call Paul beat G1 Hopeful upsetter (and KEE Breeders’ Futurity contender) Mind Control (Brunetti again!) in their debuts. He then bested Tight Ten in the SAR Special and that one was 2nd only to Cairo Cat in the Iroquois last month. Endorsed wasn’t supposed to win his career bow, but did and may be the ideal candidate for an inside/out rally. Trophy Chaser was stunning in his MDN-breaker in So. FL and doesn’t need the lead. This is a really fun edition of the Champagne and expect many, many of these go on to do good things..

Best Value: #5 Call Paul 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Endorsed 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Complexity 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #2 Trophy Chaser 10-1 5th

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T

Best Value: #7 Beaux Arts 8-1 12th
Next Best: #9 Something Joyful 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Saratoga Treasure 5-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #4 Truly Courageous 15-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 5-6-7 (A), – (B), 1-2-8 (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 1-2-4-5 (A), – (B), 8-9-10 (C)
11: 7 (A), 1-9 (B), 2-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x4x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x3x1x4x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 2-5-6-7 (A), 1-3-4-8 (B), – (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 1-2-4-5 (A), 8-9 (B), 3-6-7-10 (C)
11: 7-9 (A), 1(B), 2-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x1x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 4x1x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Woodford (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Bucchero 5-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #1 Done Deal 15-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Undrafted 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Kid Perfect 15-1 9th

7th: TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Miss Sunset 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Happy Like a Fool 10-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Rich Mommy 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Chalon 4-1 2nd

8th: First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Quidura 2-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Valadorna 20-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Off Limits 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 A Raving Beauty 3-1 WON ($8.40)

9th: Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Mr. Ankeny 12-1 6th
Next Best: #14 Standard Deviation 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Dream Maker 5-1 12th
Super Add: #8 Tobacco Road 12-1 9th

10th: Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #13 Big Score 30-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Analyze It 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Heart to Heart 7-2 9th
Super Add: #14 Bound for Nowhere 15-1 11th

P5 Grid:

6: 1-2(A), 3-8 (B), 4-6-10 (C)
7: 3 (A), – (B), 1-6-9 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), 2-10 (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 5-10-14 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-8 (C)
10: 5-9-13 (A), – (B), 7-11-12-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 1-3-6 (A), – (B), 7-9 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), – (B), 2-10 (C)
9: 10-14 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
10: 5-9-13 (A), 7-11-14 (B), 1-6-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

11th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Roan Like the Wind 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Lionite 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #13 Bold Proposition 4-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Raf 12-1 12th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Ready and Rich 5-2 2nd

P4 Grid:

8: 3-8 (A), – (B), 2-10 (C)
9: 10-14 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
10: 5-9-13 (A), – (B), 1-7-11-12-14 (C)
11: 4-6-13 (A), 5-11-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mensa Member 9-5 6th
Next Best: #7 Shak’s Hidden Gem 5-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Y’allcomenow 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Fika 10-1 4th

6th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Domain 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Business Cycle 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Coal Truth 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Illudere 7-2 WON ($8.30)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Appealing Briefs 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #8 Collective Effort 5-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Mango M 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Ides of Arch 8-1 6th

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #9 McErin 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 No Regrets 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Outrageous Bet 8-1 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #6 All Clear 6-1 4th

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #7 Barrel of Destiny 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #9 Missbigtimes 6-1 11th
Next Best: #8 Lady Camille 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Youth Gone Wild 15-1 9th

NYRA Bets P5 Grid:

5: 1-7 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
6: 1-3-6 (A), 2(B), 4-5 (C)
7: 2-8 (A), 5-12 (B), 9-11 (C)
8: 9 (A), – (B), 1-5-6 (C)
9: 7-8-9 (A), 10 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x1x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 1-3-6 (A), 2(B), 4-5 (C)
7: 2-5-8 (A), 9-11-12 (B), – (C)
8: 9 (A), – (B), 1-5-6 (C)
9: 7-8-9-10 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 3x3x1x4 = 36 x .50 = $18

MAGNA 5 ~ WEEK 2

POST-SCRATCHES

MAGNA 5 Grid:

SA 3: 3-9 (A), 5 (B), – (C)
GPW 8: 2-4 (A), 1-5-11 (B), 3-6-9 (C)
LRL 9: 8-11 (A), – (B), 1-6-15 (C) ~ OFF/TURF
LRL 10: 4-5-14 (A), – (B), 1-9-12-13 (C) ~ OFF/TURF
SA 5: 3(A), – (B), 5-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x3x1 = $90
All A’s: 2x2x2x3x1 = $24

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Majestic Eagle 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Argentic 6-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Birdsnest Party 12-1 WON ($29.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Sun Lover 5-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #10 Convict Pike 5-1 4th

8th: Phoenix (G2), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Limousine Liberal 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Promises Fulfilled 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Whitmore 9-5 2nd

9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Restless Rider 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #10 Malocchio 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Boujie Girl 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Into Trouble 15-1 9th

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Lightly-raced 2yo fillies on the lawn. Note Vasilisa is a full sister to ‘one-that-got-away’ Vasilika..

Most Likely: #8 Full Swing 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Vasilisa 5-1 8th
Next Best: #14 To the Moon N Back 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Macabre 6-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #2 Hope So 8-1 11th

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-11 (A), 7-10-13 (B), – (C)
8: 1-4 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
9: 3-10 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 8-11-14 (A), 2-7 (B), 9-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18