9/12: Woodbine (7-13); KY Downs (7-11)

digg del.icio.us TRACK TOP
By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Dani’s Victory 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ben Lomand 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Fast Negotiations 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Entry to Heaven 6-1 7th

8th: Bison City-R, 3yo-F, 8.5f (.20 P5, P3, )

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Katherine 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Truth Hurts 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Mizzen Beau 4-1 WON ($19.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Gun Society 8-1 4th

9th: Canadian (G2), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Cambier Parc 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Elizabeth Way 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Another Time 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Amalfi Coast 6-1 8th

10th (5:41p ET): 161st Queen’s Plate-R, 3yo, 10f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Curlin’s Voyage 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Merveilleux 10-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Clayton 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Halo Again 5-1 14th

11th: ALW/N$Y, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Fairywren 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Double Medal 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Short Summer Dress 4-1
Super Add: #5 Grey Seal 20-1 4th

12th: Ruling Angel, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Avie’s Samurai 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Boardroom 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Artie’s Princess 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #4 Our Secret Agent 6-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

8: 2 (A), 3 (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 3-10 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
10: 10 (A), 2 (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 1-6-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x3x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A’s: 1x2x1x3x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backups: 2x2x1x3x2 (12) + 1x2x1x3x2 (6) + 1x2x2x3x2 (12) = $30

13th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Mandatory Pay Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Guestimation 3-1 WON ($10.30)
Next Best: #4 Giant Critic 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #13 Tallestofthetall 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Secret Path 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Green Growth 10-1 8th

P4 Grid:

10: 10 (A), 2 (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 1-6-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 4-6-11-13 (A), 1-2-5-7-9-10 (B), 3-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x10 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 1x3x2x5 = 30 x .50 = $15
Backups: 2x3x2x5 (30) + 1x3x2x3 = (9) = $39

KENTUCKY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Ladies Turf (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Regal Glory 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Mitchell Road 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Secret Message 4-1 5th

8th: Ladies Sprint (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Cariba 8-1 11th
Next Best: #8 Got Stormy 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Into Mystic 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Winning Envelope 20-1 2nd

9th: Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Fauci 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Outadore 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Bodenheimer 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 County Final 9-2 4th

10th: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Best Value: #6 Postulation 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Zulu Alpha 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Red Knight 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Hierarchy 10-1 6th

11th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Imprimis 8-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #4 Totally Boss 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Kanthaka 5-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Bound for Nowhere SCR
Hi-5 Play: #2 Stubbins 6-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-6 (A), 3-8 (B), – (C)
8: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-9 (A), 6 (B), 2-3-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-6 w/ 7-8-11 w/ 9-10 w/ 6-10 w/ 2-3-12)

P4 Grid:

8: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6-10 (A), 2-12 (B), – (C)
11: 4-6-9 (A), 2-3-12 (B), 7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (7-8-11 w/ 9-10 w/ 6-10 w/ 7-10)

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH DERBY DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Essential Quality 3-1: Godolphin Tapit homebred out of fast sprint mare.. WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Santa Cruiser 15-1: Desormeaux firster a half to quick Beau Oxy.. 3rd
Next Best: #11 Rye Sense of Humor 6-1: Chased Drop Anchor home at ELP.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Xietelhuas 12-1: May want turf, but Eric Reed sharp debut guy.. 11th

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Spanish Kingdom 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 On a Spree 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #4 Trident Hit 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Attorney Tim 8-1 4th

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Cowboy Diplomacy 7-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Cool Bobby 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Wayne O 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Coastal Defense 8-1 2nd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

One of the weekend’s most interesting races. 10-1 Tank Commander is a regally bred ouchy type with an ideal behind the speed style..

Best Value: #5 Tank Commander 10-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Locally Owned 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Signalman 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Chess Chief 6-1 8th

8th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Smooth Like Strait 8-5 4th
Best Value: #2 American Butterfly 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Field Pass 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Fancy Liquor 9-2 WON ($11.60)

P5 Grid:

4: 4-5-11 (A), 1-6-10 (B), – (C)
5: 5-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-5-12 (A), 7-9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54 (4-5-11 with 5-8 with 6-11 with 4-5-12 with 2-4-8)

P4 Grid:

5: 5-8 (A), 4 (B), – (C)
6: 4-6-11 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
7: 4-5-7-12 (A), 9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x6x1 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 2x3x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (5-8 with 4-6-11 with 4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8)

9th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (.20 Must Pay Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Echo Town 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Digital 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Rushie 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Tap It to Win 4-1 3rd

10th: Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Therideofalifetime 7-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Ultimate Badger 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Super Stock 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Belafonte 20-1 10th

11th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Newspaperofrecord 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Juliet Foxtrot 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Daddy Is a Legend 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 La Signare 10-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

7: 4-5-7-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 2-5-9 (A), 4-6 (B), – (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 4x1x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 4x3x3x2x1 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8 with 2-5-9 with 4-10 with 1)

P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), 4-8 (B), – (C)
9: 2-4-5-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
11: 4 (A), – (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10 (2-5 with 2-5-6-7-9 with 4-10 with 5)

12th: Derby City Distaff (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ce Ce 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Serengeti Empress 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Bell’s the One 10-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Bellafina 3-1 6th

13th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Sacred Life 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Mr Dumas 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Factor This 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Rockemperor 7-2 3rd

14th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #17 Tiz the Law 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #16 Honor A.P. 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #18 Authentic 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Best Value: #3 Enforceable 30-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Thousand Words Late SCR
Hi-5 Play: #15 Ny Traffic 20-1 8th

Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 8 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)

Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3×3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1×3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18) $3 Oaks-Derby Double (7/18) Paid $522.60

Backup: 3×3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)

.20 ‘Must Pay’ Single Six:

9: 2-4-5-6-9
10: 3-4-6-10
11: 3-4
12: 4-6-8-9-10
13: 8
14: 16-17

All A’s: 5x4x2x5x1x2 = 400 x .20 = $80

P5 Grid:

10: 4-10 (A), 3-6-8-9 (B), – (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), – (C)
13: 8 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4-6-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x1x4x1x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)
Backup: 2x1x4x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48 (4-10 with 4 with 1-4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-6-9 with 16-17)

P4 Grid:

11: 4 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), – (C)
13: 8 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-3-4-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), 3-18 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x3x1x2 = 6 x $2 = $12
Backup: 1x3x5x2 = 30 x .50 = $15 (4 with 4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-9 with 16-17)

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH OAKS DAY

POST-LATE SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Scorching Wayne Catalano (Ocean Breeze here, Manny Wah SCR in 6th, MDN Pit Boss in the 3rd Saturday) is 11 for 44 over the last 90 days with 28 of 44 in the money..

Most Likely: #6 Ocean Breeze 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 She Can’t Sing 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Miss T Too 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Palomita 7-2 2nd

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Honorifique 12-1: 2nd timer bulleted; Kenneally poised for nice weekend.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Travel Column 7-2: $850k Frosted from Cox for Larry Best.. WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Amiche 9-2: Firster savvy Devaux w/ 3 graded STK run’rs at CD, SAR.. 10th
Super Add: #5 Three Tipsy Chix 20-1: Wilkes will have On Fire Baby baby ready to run.. 8th

6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Strike That 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Honest Mischief 2-1 WON-Up via DQ ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Mojo Man 10-1 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Mucho 8-1 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (.20 Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 I Hear You 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Sicilia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Sense You Left 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Flabbergasted 3-1 WON ($8.60)

8th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Interchangeable faves poised for big, early confrontation and Sconsin poised if pair burn each other out..

Most Likely: #7 Four Graces 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mundaye Call 6-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sconsin 6-1 WON ($16.40)

P5 Grid:

4: 1-3-6
5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7
8: 1-6-7-10

All A’s: 3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

P4 Grid:

5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7-8-10
8: 1-6-7-10

All A’s: 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

9th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sharing one of weekends most likely winners; 20-1 Lucky Betty is no worse than the other exotic candidates..

Most Likely: #3 Sharing 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Hendy Woods 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Lucky Betty 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 In Good Spirits 5-1 4th

10th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (2-day $2 P6, P4, P3, DD)

Top pair have clear edge on rest of the field..

Most Likely: #2 McKinzie 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 By My Standards 7-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #1 Silver Dust 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Owendale 6-1 2nd

2-day $2 P6 Grid:

FRI 10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
FRI 11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
FRI 12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 12: 10 (A), 8 (B), – (C)
SAT 13: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 14: 17 (A), 16-18 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x1x1 = 12 x $2 = $24

11th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

After conquering Midnight Bisou at the Spa, can Vexatious best Monomoy Girl here? Why not?

Best Value: #2 Vexatious 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #6 She’s a Julie 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Horologist 4-1 3rd

12th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, DD, Hi-5)

What had been billed as a Swiss Skydiver/Gamine duel is now clearly a 3 way battle with Speech unlikely to sneak up on anyone after several weeks of attention. Using all 3 in multis. Shedaresthedevil needs to take another step forward for laurels, but she does keep improving..

Most Likely: #5 Gamine 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Speech 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Swiss Skydiver 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Shedaresthedevil 20-1 WON ($32.20)
Hi-5 Play: #3 Donna Veloce 15-1 8th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)

All A’s: 3x1x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)
Backup: 3x1x2x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (1-5-7 with 3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $0.50 Pick-5 (5/3,5/6/8/7) Paid $1,413.70

P4 Grid:

9: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)

All A’s: 1x2x2x3 = 12 x $4 = $48
Backup: 1x2x2x1 = $4 (3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $1 Pick-4 (3,5/6/8/7) Paid $256.20

Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 1 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)

Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A’s: 3×3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1×3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3×3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)

13th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T

Ageless Extravagant Kid the horse to beat, but there’s no margin for error and another baker’s half dozen eligible for laurels if it isn’t him..

Most Likely: #5 Extravagant Kid 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Carotari 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Chaps 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Wellabled 10-1 12th

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
13: 5-10-12 (A), 1-2-6-13-14 (B), (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Safe trips all; Let’s get lucky!
Steve

9/2: Indiana Grand (11.99% Late P5)

digg del.icio.us TRACK TOP
By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

INDIANA DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Minetta 5-1
Best Value: #5 Tanqurette 12-1
Next Best: #6 Yellowstone Girl 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Novel Squall 9-2

5th: ITOBA Stallion-R, 3yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Mystical Justice 6-1
Next Best: #3 Carmella Key 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Sentimentaljourney 7-5
Super Add: #6 Elusive Justice 8-1

6th: ITOBA Stallion-R, 3yo-C&G, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Unbridled Beast 8-5
Next Best: #4 Cash Logistics 6-5
Best Value: #7 Nates Heartthrob 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Maters N Taters 8-1

7th: Wm. Henry Harrison-IN, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Thatswhatithought 9-2
Next Best: #2 Operation Stevie 7-5
Exotics Use: #1 Double Tuff 9-5
Super Add: #5 Here Comes Doc 5-1

8th: Shelby County-IN, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Unbridled Class 1-5
Best Value: #7 Expect Indy 10-1
Next Best: #3 Fireball Baby 10-1
Exotics Use: #6 Pretty Assets 15-1

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #13 Regal Romance 5-2
Best Value: #10 More Cowbell 10-1
Next Best: #6 Classical Magic 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Tricky Tune 4-1

P5 Grid:

5: 2-3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), – (C)
6: 2-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-8 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
8: 8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 6-10-13 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x2x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 2-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-8 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
8: 8 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
9: 1-6-8-10-13 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 2x2x1x5 = 20 x .50 = $10

Good luck!
Steve

8/30: Saratoga (Shuvee; Late P5)

digg del.icio.us TRACK TOP
By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

For those curious about Natalia Lynch who is saddling Square Shooter, she’s a Jeremiah Englehart assistant going out on her own..

Most Likely: #2 Summer Bourbon 7-2
Best Value: #7 Local Hero 6-1
Next Best: #5 Zonic 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Square Shooter 6-1

7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Short Pour 7-2
Next Best: #12 Blue Atlas 5-2
Best Value: #2 Barrel of Destiny 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Pecatonica 7-2

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Gandy Dancing 2-1
Next Best: #8 Harris Bay 3-1
Best Value: #1 Leap to Glory 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Number One Dillon 20-1

9th: 44th Shuvee (G3), F&M-4+, 9f (DD)

This is a very good running of the Shuvee with what should be a zippy pace and live prices involved including Trombetta’s hot working Puerto Rican mystery filly Lucky Stride. I tabbed Lucky Move (6/1-3-1 at 9f) for Beat Byk today because her Obeah two back can win this and she’s the only authentic off the pace candidate..

Best Value: #7 Lucky Move 12-1
Next Best: #5 Golden Award 9-2
Exotics Use: #1 Lucky Stride 15-1
Super Add: #6 Nonna Madeline 4-1

10th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #1 Venerable 6-1
Next Best: #4 Shirelle 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Modern Science 3-1
Super Add: #5 Sur Del Sol 10-1

P5 Grid:

6: 2-7 (A), – (B), 5-6-10 (C)
7: 1-2-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4 (A), 8 (B), 1 (C)
9: 1-5-7 (A), 4-6-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 1 (B), – (C)
9: 1-5-7 (A), 4-6-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x6x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

Saratoga (6th-11th; X-C P5)

digg del.icio.us TRACK TOP
By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

SARATOGA ~ CROSS COUNTRY PICK 5

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: Saranac (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Good group of grassy sophs including Chad Brown import that has made very positive impression working towards US debut. Fact that he liked soft & heavy ground in France could bode well here..

Most Likely: #4 L’Imperator 5-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Embolden 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Bodecream 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Vanzzy 7-2 8th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (X-C P5 Leg A, Empire 6, P3, DD)

Excellent Cross Country P5 starts here with what looks like a classic loaded Spa baby event. Richie Vega (#8 Jimmy the Kid) is better with 2nd timers, but note visit to town from Philly with Runhappy colt looking for shot at $100k breeder award. Working well at PRX..

Most Likely: #10 Happymac 5-2: $360k Asmussen/Helligbrodt totes gate blast in for debut.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Highly Motivated 7-2: Sharp drilling Klarman Into Mischief homebred.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Newbomb 3-1: Rail drawn Pletcher Speightstown firster half to St. Joe Bay.. 3rd
Super Add: #8 Jimmy the Kid 15-1 6th

MONMOUTH 9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 12f-OFF THE TURF (X-C P5 Leg B)

Most Likely: #8 Terry’s Charm WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #9 So High 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Decisive Triumph 4th

WOODBINE 7th: Ontario Colleen, 3yo-F, 1m-T (X-C P5 Leg C, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Avie’s Samurai 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Fly So Pretty 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Two Sixty 9-2 4th

7th: Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Whole group is separated by less than 2 lengths..

Most Likely: #3 Long Weekend 9-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Premier Star 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wonderwherecraigis 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Yaupon 8-5 WON ($4.80)

8th: Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (X-C P5 Leg D, P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly engaging group with countless options, but note that there isn’t a ton of pace signed on..

Most Likely: #4 Funny Guy 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Complexity 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Win Win Win 12-1 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Whitmore 7-2 7th

9th: Sword Dancer (G1), 4+, 12f-Inner (X-C P5 Leg E, P3, DD)

Murky bunch and sense that the ones that go forward will decide it. Intrigue comes from Motion who shows up with a mystery horse in Pedro Cara and a fresh face might be just what we’re looking for versus these usual suspects..

Most Likely: #2 Aquaphobia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pedro Cara 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cross Border 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Sadler’s Joy 5-2 4th

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

SAR 6: 4-10 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
MTH 9: 8-9 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
WO 7: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAR 8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)
SAR 9: 2-6-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Very tricky read on this set of juvy fillies with some of the obvious firsters seemingly more turf/route meant (Always Carina/Jouster/Zainalareb). Siding more with those that have run..

Most Likely: #7 O’Gotten Girl 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Capstone Girl 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Spun d’Etat 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Zainalarab 7-2 Late SCR

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f

Big balloons in the offing here..

Best Value: #4 Bustin Scones 10-1 WON ($17.80)
Next Best: #7 Midnight Surprise 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Fight On Lucy 20-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Pot of Hunny 30-1 DNF-Clipped Heels, Fell

P5 Grid:

7: 3-4 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), – (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), – (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 4 (A), 7 (B), 9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), – (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 5-8 (B), – (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 9-10 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18