FAIR GROUNDS ~ FAT TUESDAY

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Save 3-1 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #1 Makeajoyfulnoise 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Puye Timing 9-2 5th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-Off/Turf (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #14 Adventuring 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #7 Peace Broker 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #16 D’oro Forever 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Naughty Rendezvous 8-1 4th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lady of Luxury 9-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #3 Goulding 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Gianna’s Gift 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Sixth Street 6-1 4th

8th: Mardi Gras, F&M-4+, 5.5f-Off/Turf (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Into Mystic 2nd
Next Best: #2 Elle Z WON ($6.60)

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f

Warrant (Constitution) a half to Ms Locust Point; Gunner Paul (Exaggerator) a half to Merneith; Koolhaus (Nyquist) a $600k OXO buy..

Most Likely: #10 Wild for Wycliff 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Warrant 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #8 Run Fast 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Koolhaus 9-2 3rd

P5 Grid:

5: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 7-14 (A), 9-16 (B), 8-15 (C)
7: 1 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
8: 1-2 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-8-10 (A), – (B), 1-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (8-15) + $18 (1-5-7)

$0.50 Pick-5 (2,5,7/14/1,2/2/3) Paid $111.70 (A-A-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

6: 7-14-16 (A), 8-9-15 (B), – (C)
7: 1-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-2 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-8-10 (A), 7 (B), 1-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $12 (1-5)

$0.50 Pick-4 (14/1,2/2/3) Paid $58.55 (A-A-A-A)

2/13: Fair Grounds (7th-13th)

digg del.icio.us TRACK TOP
By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Col. Power, 4+, 5.5f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Just Might 9-2 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #4 Extravagant Kid 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Manny Wah 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Bango 12-1 5th

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Strong group auditioning for LA Derby slot including Asmussen’s Defeater who considered the Risen Star but runs here in 2nd start. Turfy Risk Manager gets chance on main track and can impact if dirt a fit. With 5 stretchout entrants involved, pace has to be honest at the least..

Most Likely: #8 Gagetown 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Big Lake 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #11 Regular Guy 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Defeater 6-1 2nd

9th: Big Al Memorial, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dalika 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #9 Secret Message 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Pass the Plate 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Room to Finish 8-1 8th

10th: Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Maxfield 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Dinar 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Enforceable 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Wells Bayou 6-1 SCR

P4 Grid:

7: 1-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 8-10 (A), 4-11 (B), – (C)
9: 3-7-9 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
10: 4 (A), – (B), 1-2/SCR-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x1 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A’s: 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup: 3x2x2x2 = 54 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/10/7/2,4) Paid $76.55 (A-A-A-A)

11th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Factor This 3-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Spectacular Gem 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Dontblamerocket 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Set Piece 10-1 4th

12th: Rachel Alexandra (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Not a lot of pace here, so expect aggressive Geroux to be forward with fresh Travel Column..

Best Value: #6 Zoom Up 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Travel Column 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Clairiere 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #2 Souper Sensational 8-1 6th

13th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 9f

Prices reflect revised ML. I don’t think Senor Buscador is getting beat any time soon..

Best Value: #5 SENOR BUSCADOR 9-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Midnight Bourbon 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Mandoulin 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #1 Starrininmtydreams 12-1

P5 Grid:

9: 3-7-9 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
10: 4 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 2-7-8-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 6-8 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
13: 5 (A), – (B), 6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 3x1x4x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $24 (1-5) + $24 (6-11)

P4 Grid:

10: 4 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 2-7-8-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 6-8 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
13: 5 (A), – (B), 6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x1 = $16
All A’s: 1x4x2x1 = $8
Backups: $8 (1-5) + $8 (6-11)

TAMPA BAY DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Tampa Bay (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Interesting group and countless price options, so try to be creative and aggressive. Armistice Day (10-1) can fire fresh and best turf tries contend..

Best Value: #11 Armistice Day 10-1
Next Best: #10 Fancy Liquor 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Admission Office 6-1
Super Add: #9 Sole Volante 15-1

AQUEDUCT 7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 Starts Here..

On paper, Mabel Island way the filly to beat, but she’s never won 2 in a row reacting negatively to every big effort.

Most Likely: #2 Fair Lassie 7-2
Best Value: #6 Ifihadachance 5-1
Next Best: #4 Mabel Island 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Ellarella 7-2

TAMPA 9th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Feeling Mischief 9-2: SCR of the 2 faves makes her the one to catch, beat..
Next Best: #9 Il Malocchio 10-1
Best Value: #8 Be Sneaky 12-1
Exotics Use: #10 Special Princess 8-1

AQUEDUCT 8th: Withers (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Shackqueenking 10-1: 9f will suit with best efforts coming around 2 turns..
Next Best: #5 Risk Taking 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Royal Number 6-1
Super Add: #3 Capo Kane 3-1

TAMPA 10th: Endeavour (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Counterparty Risk 5-2
Next Best: #6 New York Girl 4-1
Best Value: #8 Iron of Reality 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Kelsey’s Cross 6-1

TAMPA 11th: Sam F. Davis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Pairs from Pletcher & Mott merit plenty of respect, but note race has had only 1 successful fave ($5 McCraken in ’17) in last 5 runnings with average winner in the 7-1 range. And as has been widely cited, Known Agenda won’t be 6-1..

Best Value: #6 Runway Magic 8-1
Next Best: #3 Known Agenda 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Nova Rags 4-1
Super Add: #1 Hidden Stash 10-1

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

AQU 7: 2-4-6 (A), 1-3-5-7 (B), – (C)
TAM 9: 2 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
AQU 8: 1-2-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
TAM 10: 5 (A), – (B), 3-6-7-8 (C)
TAM 11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x1x4x1x4 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 3x1x4x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: $12 (9) + $48 (3-6-7-8)

12th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Free Flayme 6-1
Next Best: #3 Indy Ride 5-1
Exotics Use: #5 Shakem N Breakem 12-1
Super Add: #10 First Degree 4-1

P5 Grid:

8: 2-10-11 (A), 5-9 (B), – (C)
9: 2 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
10: 5-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
12: 3-7 (A), – (B), 5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (9) + $12 (3-7) + $18 (5-10)

P4 Grid:

9: 2-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 5-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
12: 3-5-7 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $12 (3-7)

Good luck!
Steve

SAM HOUSTON RACE PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Turf Sprint, 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Carotari 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Fast Boat 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Tiger Blood 10-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Share the Upside 4-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Change of Control 6-1 3rd

6th: Stars/Stripes Sprint, 4+, 5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Nitrous 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #9 Hollis 5-2 DH-WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Sky Ride 10-1 DH-WON ($6.00)

Exotics Use: #6 Bourbon County 8-1 7th

7th: TX Turf Mile, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Palazzi 6-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Fighting Force 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Excess Magic 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Texas Bad Boy 15-1 6th

8th: Ladies Classic (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Letruska 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Ujjayi 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lady Apple 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Motion Emotion 7-2 5th

9th: John Connally (G3), 4+, 12f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tenfold 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Marzo 10-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Spooky Channel 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Conviction Trade 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Tut’s Revenge 9-2 12th

10th: Jersey Lily, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Morning Molly 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #1 Catch a Bid 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Stunning Sky 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Curlin’s Journey 15-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Kuora 20-1 8th

P6 Grid:

5: 3-7-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), 9 (B), 5 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 7 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
9: 4-6-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7 (A), – (B), 8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x1x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x1x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (5) + $18 (3) + $9 (8) = $45

$0.50 Pick-6 (7/5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $462.30 (6OF6) A/B & A-C-A-A-A-A
$0.50 Pick-6 (7/5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $9.25 (5OF6) x 9

P5 Grid:

6: 1-9 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
8: 7 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
9: 4-6-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (5) + $18 (2-3) = $27

$0.50 Pick-5 (5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $122.90 (5OF5) A/B & C-A-A-A-A
$0.50 Pick-5 (5,9/1/7/10/7) Paid $3.20 (4OF5) x 9

P4 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 4-6-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $27 (1-4-5)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1/7/10/7) Paid $59.90 (A-A-A-A)

CROSS COUNTRY P5 ~ OAKLAWN 5TH-9TH

POST-SCRATCHES

AQU 8th: NY-OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (X-C P5, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Golani Bridge 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Scilly Cay 4-1 6th
Next Best: #4 South Africa 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Danebury 10-1 4th

OP 5th: Martha Washington, 3yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Coach 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Will’s Secret 6-1 WON ($18.00)
Next Best: #1 Joy’s Rocket 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Novel Squall 15-1 5th

TAM 8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Rastafara 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Fate of Ophelia 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Tranquilllina 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Captivance 8-1 WON ($17.60)

AQU 9th: MSW, 4+, 1m

Best Value: #4 Continuation 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mandatory 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Clemenza 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Five Tool Player Gate SCR

OP 6th: AR-ALW/N$Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Many Sweet Treats 10-1 9th
Next Best: #9 The Mary Rose 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Bettyann 4-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Presley 6-1 2nd

X-C P5 Grid:

AQU 8: 1-4-7 (A), 3 (B), 2-6 (C)
OP 5: 3 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
TAM 8: 5-8 (A), – (B), 2-10 (C)
AQU 9: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 1-2-5/SCR (C)
OP 6: 5-9 (A), – (B), 4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $66 ~ $12 (2-6) + $18 (2-10) + $18 (1-2-5) + $18 (4-10)

OP 7th: MCLM/$50k, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Perfectiontodetail 8-1
Next Best: #10 Dream Princess 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 Northern Diamond 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lutescoot N Boogie 5-1 WON ($10.60)

OP 8th: American Beauty, F&M-4+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Frank’s Rockette 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Wildwood’s Beauty 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Amy’s Challenge 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Shesomajestic 12-1 4th

OP 9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f

Best Value: #5 Backshot 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 American Mandate 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Fastly 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #13 Secret Courier 5-1 WON ($5.60)

P5 Grid:

5: 1-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 5-9 (A), 4-10 (B), – (C)
7: 7-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 7 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 5-7 (A), 3-13 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $36 (5-9)

P4 Grid:

6: 5-9 (A), 4-10 (B), – (C)
7: 7-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 7 (A), 5 (B), 2-6-9 (C)
9: 3-5-7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $36 (2-6-9)

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m-T/12′ (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Light Fury 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Notsosubtle 5-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Uncle Curly 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Tune In 9-2 WON ($11.40)

9th: Forward Gal (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Zaajel 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Competitive Speed 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Coach Jer’s Joy 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Lady Traveler 4-1 2nd

10th: Sweetest Chant (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T/72′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Terrific looking group with solid faves, seasonal debuts and a host of gals on the improve. Pace looks honest giving everybody a shot. #2 Honey Pants (3-1) & White Frost (9-2) not in the 4 below, but covering in multis..

Best Value: #6 Domain Expertise 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Con Lima 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Queen of the Green 15-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Director’s Cut 6-1 7th

11th: Holy Bull (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Interesting group with developing Greatest Honour (Shug) & first out winning Pletcher pair (Amount/Prime Factor) facing Mucho Macho Man placers (Papetu/Awesome Gerry) & rebooting Sittin On Go..

Most Likely: #7 Greatest Honour 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #3 Papetu 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Prime Factor 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Sittin On Go 5-1 6th

12th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T/12′ (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Honey Won’t 9-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Financial System 5-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Troubling Moon 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Fig Jelly 6-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

8: 2-8 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-2-4-5-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 7 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
12: 3-4 (A), – (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x6x1x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup: $44 ~ $24 (3-4) + $8 (3-7) + $12 (6)

P4 Grid:

9: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-2-4-5-6-8 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
11: 7 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
12: 3-4 (A), – (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x8x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x6x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: $12 (6)