10/23: BEL@AQU ($45k P6 C/O)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

BELMONT@AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Tough start to $45k P6 C/O with a number of droppers mixing it up with several that have good form at the level. Not an abundance of pace which further adds to the murkiness..

Best Value: #9 Jack the Cat 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Big Agenda 5-1 WON ($8.70)
Exotics Use: #4 Monarchs Glen 8-1 12th
Super Add: #3 Regal Speaker 12-1 4th

5th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Khali Magic 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Cupid’s Heart 7-5 WON ($3.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Bustin Bay 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Miss Alacrity 6-1 7th

6th: Carle Place, 3yo, 6f-Outer (P4, P3, DD)

Fun, competitive group that sure looks like it has contentious pace. Can Mike Moore’s legit That’s Right take them the extra yardage out to 6f? On the distance topic, note that Too Many Twizzlers (Won), Run Curtis Run (2nd) and Sousa Summer (3rd) cut back from the added trip 6.5f at KY Downs. Outlaw Kid won sharply at 6f over the course 5 weeks ago and looks like a potential lean for budgetary considerations..

Most Likely: #3 OUTLAW KID 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Groom’s All Business 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 That’s Right 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Run Curtis Run 4-1 WON ($8.00)

7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Masked Marauder another possible small budget tool..

Most Likely: #1 Masked Marauder 9-5 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #9 Jake Rocks 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Mr Breadwinner 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Will E. Sutton 10-1 3rd

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (DD)

Best Value: #2 Dufresne 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Royal Dancer 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Lisa’s Vision 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Saratoga Gaze 6-1 9th

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 2yo-F, 7f

Ugh.. Bad bunch o’ coconuts..

Best Value: #11 April First 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Follow the Fed 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3x Pebble Lane 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #9 Amanda’s Folly 6-1 4th

P6 Grid:

4: 4-6-9 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
5: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
9: 4-11 (A), 3 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x1x1x4x3 = $120
All A’s: 3x2x1x1x2x2 = $24

P5 Grid:

5: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
9: 3-4-11 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

6: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
9: 3-4-11 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x1x2x3 = 18 x .50 = $9

LAUREL PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th (2:53p ET): MD Million Distaff, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Fille d’Espirit 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #2 Malibu Beauty 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Wicked Hot 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Bourbon Wildcat 20-1 4th

8th: MD Million Lassie, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Chickieness 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #3 Skylar’s Sister 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Bosserati 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Shell Belle 15-1 6th

9th: MD Million Turf, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Midnight Hauler 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Mr. d’Angelo 20-1 12th
Next Best: #8 Cannon’s Roar 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Street Copper 6-1 2nd

10th: MD Million Sprint, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Fortheloveofbourbon 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #14 Alwaysinahurry 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Karan’s Notion 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Heir Port 12-1

11th: MD Million Classic, 3+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Ain’t Da Beer Cold 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Ournationonparade 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #6 The Poser 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Vance Scholars 9-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

7: 1-2 (A), 6 (B), – (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 7 (A), 3-8 (B), – (C)
10: 11-14 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 5-6-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x1x1x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup: 2x2x1x2x4 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 6 (A), 3 (B), 4 (C)
9: 3-7 (A), 8 (B), – (C)
10: 11-14 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 5-6-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A’s: 1x2x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup: 1x2x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8

11th: MD Million Turf Distaff S/HCP, F&M-3+, 8.f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Mosler’s Image 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Downtown Katie 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Brushing 6-1
Super Add: #6 Pounding Music 8-1 WON ($19.40)

BEL/AQU

POST-SCRATCHES

6th (3:16p ET): MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Rudder’s Men 2-1 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #3 Chess Spectacular 15-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Classic Legacy 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Classic Catch 6-1 3rd

7th: Hill Prince (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Unanimous Consent 6-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Grand Sonata 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 St. Anthony 15-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Mackinnon 9-2 2nd

8th: NY-MCLM/$20k, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Flashy Alex 12-1 WON ($40.20)
Next Best: #1 Destin Hoofman 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Fast Study 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Garth Road 8-1 7th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Chulainn 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Danzigwiththestars 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Internal Capital 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 My Boy Paddy 30-1 8th

10th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-Outer

Most Likely: #3 Deep Cover 4-1 8th
Next Best: #1e Rice entry 7-2 WON ($7.30)/5th
Exotics Use: #9 Not Phar Now 5-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Neuro 10-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
7: 2-5-8 (A), 1-7-10 (B), – (C)
8: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-3 (A), – (B), 9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 1x3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9

P4 Grid:

7: 2-5-8 (A), 1-7-10 (B), – (C)
8: 1-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Fearless Viv 8-1 12th
Next Best: #5 Catskill Humor 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Twirled 5-2 WON ($5.68)
Super Add: #8 Amber Cascade 12-1 9th

6th (3:40p ET): Perryville, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Gunite 6-5 WON ($3.24)
Best Value: #6 B Dawk 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Artorious 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Of a Revolution 5-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 Always Late 5-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Empress Tigress 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sara Mia 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Touch of Class 15-1 WON ($29.46)

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Film Star 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 War Campaign 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz Rye Time 6-1 WON ($20.86)
Super Add: #3 Gate Runner 15-1 4th

9th: Raven Run (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Wicked Halo 4-1 WON ($7.04)
Best Value: #6 Colorful Mischief 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Fingal’s Cave 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Last Leaf 12-1 5th

10th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Push Button 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Good Soldier 5-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Shogun Warrior 12-1 WON ($17.92)
Exotics Use: #9 Inbound 6-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Monjid 20-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

6: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-6 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
9: 2-5-4-6-8-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6-7-11 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x2x6x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 5 Conso (4,8/9/4/8/11) $48.32 x 2 = $96.65

P4 Grid:

7: 2-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-6 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
9: 6-8 (A), 4-5 (B), 2-10 (C)
10: 6-7-11 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

REMINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OK Classics Distaff, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Hits Pricey Legacy 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 She’s All Wolfe 6-5 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #5 Kachina 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Tesuque 30-1 4th

7th: OK Classics Distaff Sprint, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sunday Flashback 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Ragan’s Jet 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Our Bet 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Dicey 8-1 2nd

8th: OK Classics Sprint, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Fly to the Bank 5-1 WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #1 Tommyhawk 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Shannon C 5-2 8th
Super Add: #6 Mister Wayside 10-1 3rd

9th: OK Classics Cup, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Number One Dude 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 That’s Something 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Abrasoka 3-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Cruisin Cue 10-1 6th

10th: OK Turf Classic, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #1 Half Hours to Keep 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Quarky 4-1 11th
Best Value: #4 Rantheredlight 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Tap the Dot 7-2 WON ($7.40)

P5 Grid:

6: 4 (A), 7 (B), 5 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
8: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 4-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 1x2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5 in 6th) + 1x1x3x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9 (5 in 7th)

$0.50 Pick 5 (7-1-4-6-8) Paid $500.80

P4 Grid:

7: 1-6 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
8: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 4-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 1x3x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9 (5 in 7th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (1-4-6-8) Paid $161.00

10/15: Keeneland (5th-10th)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/C, 3+, 8.5F-T (P6, $3 Turf P3/5th-7th-9th, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 In Love 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Mouilage 2-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Mr. Wireless 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Kentucky Ghost 5-1 WON ($16.88)

$3 P3 Grid:

5: 2-4 (A), 3-9 (B), – (C)
7: 7-11 (A), 12 (B), – (C)
9: 4-6 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2 = 24 x $3 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2 = 8 x $3 = $24

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5F (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Sunny River 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Inventing 5-2 WON ($12.66)
Exotics Use: #8 Forever After All 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Sweet Lady Ivanka 10-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 2YO, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Ashcroft 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Six Missions 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Giovianno 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Worthington 7-2 WON ($8.06)

8th: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Your So Sillea 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #2 Cancel This 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Dame Joviale 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Ain’t Broke 4-1 2nd

9th: QE II (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Best Value: #4 New Year’s Eve SCR
Next Best: #6 McKulick 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Bellabel 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Paris Peacock 10-1 6th

10th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 ULTIMATE 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Beverly Park 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 The Queen Jules 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Super Add: #2 Alexandros 12-1 6th

P5 Grid:

6: 4-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 7-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 1-3 (B), 5 (C)
9: 4/SCR-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4 (A), 10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x1x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9

P4 Grid:

7: 7-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 2-3-6 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
9: 4/SCR-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

10/14: Keeneland (5th-10th)

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By kasept | Filed in Uncategorized | No comments yet.

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, $3 Turf P3/5th-7th-9th, P3, DD)

Nice group with first time turf Precursory (6-1) a major player if lawn to her liking..

Best Value: #8 Isn’t She Lovely 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Lady Puchi 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Precursory 6-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Herington Rocket 4-1 5th

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

5: 3-8 (A), 6-9 (B), 4-12 (C)
7: 5/SCR-7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 7 (A), 11 (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2 = 24 x $3 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1 = 6 x $3 = $18
Backup: 2x3x1 = 6 x $3 = $18 (4-12 in 5th) + 2x3x2 = 12 x $3 = $36 (2-5 in 9th)

6th: OC/N2X, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky read.. Should probably be a little against Peaceful Waters who exploded at SAR (monsterous TG fig of -3) but has had time to recover. Repeat makes him tough and not sure if he’ll get much pressure with Coppola, adding Johnny, the best candidate to attend pace. Keep an eye for tote action on Make It Big (10-1) who gets first Lasix and Rosario for a possible stalk and go step forward..

Most Likely: #4 Peaceful Waters 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Strava 7-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Make It Big 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Coppola 8-1 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very difficult to seperate these 2yo’s with those that have run pretty much indistinguishable. Bob & Lawana Low 3rd generation home bred Paint Me Perfect (15-1), who tail female traces back to Capote Belle, is going to be overlooked after forgettable dirt debut, but dam Kabella (Kitten’s Joy) was a minor turf stake winner. As viable as any her at boxcars. Similarly, capable Caramori sends American Odalisque (30-1) who has turf potential on both sides of her page and would ignite the exotics..

Best Value: #7 Paint Me Perfect 15-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Boltoro 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Sun Bee Gate SCR
Super Add: #10 American Odalisque 30-1 7th

8th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Yikes. A gaggle of interesting players — favored Strobe (9-5), newly gelded Mahaamel (4-1), Emperador (12-1), 3yo Classic Moment (20-1) & Bauer’s Angkor (6-1) — return from considerable layoffs, and there’s plenty of others to consider here too. Tough call, but at 20-1, Classic Moment appears like a very embraceable price key. May want one turn, worked uncharacteristically sharp (for barn) weeks ago at ELP and Gaffalione has been a big price go-to for Asmussen..

Best Value: #5 Classic Moment 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Mahaamel 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Emperador 12-1
Super Add: #12 Strobe 9-5 WON ($2.76)

9th: Sycamore (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Mira Mission 7-2 6th
Best Value: #13 Highest Honors 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Red Knight 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Accredit 30-1 10th

10th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Master Game Late SCR
Best Value: #3 Per Diem Gate SCR
Next Best: #8 Almanzo 7-2 WON ($5.06)
Exotics Use: #5 Robust 20-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Cooper Time 8-1 9th

P5 Grid:

6: 4-5 (A), – (B), 6-10 (C)
7: 5/SCR-7-9 (A), – (B), 10 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 3-12 (B), – (C)
9: 2-7-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1/SCR (A), 3/SCR (B), 5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 2x3x2x3x1 36 x .50 = $18 (6-10 in 6th) + 2x1x2x3x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (10 in 7th) + 2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (5-8 in 10th)

P4 Grid:

7: 5/SCR-7-9 (A), – (B), 10 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 3-12 (B), – (C)
9: 2-7-13 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1/SCR3/SCR (A), 5-8 (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 1x2x3x1 = 6 x .50 = $3 (10 in 7th) + 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-6 in 10th)