KENTUCKY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Mint Million (G3), 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Struggled with this. Feels like any one of these are possible..

Most Likely: #2 Pixelate 5-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Cavalry Charge 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Somelikeithotbrown 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Kentucky Ghost 12-1 7th

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 12.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Mud Pie 6-1: 2nd Seeking annual KD win for 3rd year in a row..
Best Value: #5 Current 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 McLovin 3-1 WON ($16.84)
Exotics Use: #7 Decision Maker 10-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (P3, DD)

I’ve been doing this since 2002 and I don’t ever remember picking 4 horses at the same price, let alone at 12-1..

Best Value: #7 Lady Baron 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Southampton Dock 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Goldblooded 12-1 8th
Super Add: #15 Dulcia 12-1 WON ($15.66)

8th: Ladies Turf (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (All GS P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Hendy Woods 9-2 6th
Next Best: #8 Princess Grace 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Dalika 2-1 WON ($7.08)
Super Add: #10 Henrietta Topham 20-1 4th

9th: Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 6f-T (All GS P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Arzak 9-2 6th
Next Best: #12 Arrest Me Red 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #9 Front Run the Fed 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Chewing Gum 5-1 8th

P5 Grid:

5: 2-4-10 (A), – (B), 1-5-6-7 (C)
6: 10 (A), 5 (B), – (C)
7: 4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-3-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (1-5-7-8 in 5th): 4x1x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

6: 5-10 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
7: 4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-3-8 (A), – (B), 10 (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (10 in 8th): 2x2x1x2 = 8 x .50 = $4

10th: KY Turf Cup (G2), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Another Mystery 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Arklow 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Gufo 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #6 Glynn County 30-1 7th

11th: Ladies Sprint (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #11 In Good Spirits 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Campanelle 8-5 WON ($3.56)
Best Value: #2 Violenza 30-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Toby’s Heart 15-1 12th

12th: Franklin-Simpson (G2), 3yo, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Big Invasion 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #10 Asymmetric 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Run Curtis Run 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Heaven Street 30-1 DH-5th
Hi-5 Play: #5 All in Sync 10-1 9th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-3-8 (A), – (B), 10 (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)
10: 4-8-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 10-11 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 6 (A), 10 (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 1x2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (10 in 8th) + 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-6 in 11th)

P4 Grid:

9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), 8-11 (C)
10: 4-8-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 10-11 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
12: 6-10 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (8-11 in 9th); 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4-7 in 12th)

KENTUCKY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Slightly odd assembly with mixed signals on a lot of the firsters..

Best Value: #7 True Prodigy 10-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Sundance 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Tollgate Canyon 10-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Murky 12-1 WON ($20.62)

3rd: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

SCR #2 Bal a Kazoo who ran Monday at CNL..

Best Value: #7 Smoke Lightening 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Stud Lovin 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Panama 6-1 WON ($13.56)
Super Add: #5 Toddchero 4-1 –

4th: ALW/NC-R, 2yo, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Mo Stash 7-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Wico 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Prove Right SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Ocean Pointe 10-1 8th

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Fore Left 6-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Pyron 3-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Light Fury 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Super Design 10-1 9th

P5 Grid:

2: 4-7-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 7-8 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
4: 4-5 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
5: 6-11 (A), 7-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (5-6 in 3rd): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (A-C-A-A)

6th: ALW/NC, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

SCR #8 Grand Oak who ran Monday at CNL..

Best Value: #9 Buttons 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Move It Baby 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Scarpia SCR
Super Add: #6 Right of Refusal 20-1 7th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Tiger Tap 10-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Wet Paint 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Stay Lost 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Don’t Go Changing 3-1 7th

P5 Grid:

4: 4-5 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
5: 6-11 (A), 7-10 (B), – (C)
6: 2-3-9 (A), – (B), 1-6-7 (C)
7: 6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (1-6-7 in 6th): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (A-A-C-A)

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Wildly competitive ALW set.. SCR #6 Encourage who won here Monday..

Most Likely: #1 Mr. Tip 8-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Roughin the City 20-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Penner Ash 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Mazuma 5-1 3rd

9th: Juvenile Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sharp Aza Tack 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Private Creed 4-1 WON ($7.58)
Exotics Use: #1 Bourbon Therapy 10-1 4th

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 10.5f-T (Hi-5)

Yikes. Mile and a quarter plus and almost none can be eliminated as win candidates..

Best Value: #1 Missoni 10-1 4th
Next Best: #10 High Stick SCR
Exotics Use: #12 Personal Best 5-2 WON ($6.26)
Super Add: #7 Seiver 15-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Quality Star 7-2 3rd

P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-9 (A), – (B), 1-6-7 (C)
7: 6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-4-7 (A), 3-8-11 (B), – (C)
9: 2 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-10 (A), 7-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (1-6-7 in 6th): 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (C-A-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

7: 6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-4-7 (A), 3-8-11 (B), – (C)
9: 2 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-7-10-12 (A), 1-11 (B), 4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x1x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (4-6 in 10th): 2x3x1x2 = 12 x .50 = $6 (A-A-A-C)

COLONIAL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Flyin Bessie 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dreaming of Snow 20-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #2 Inventing Anna 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lure’em In 8-1 9th

6th: Kitten’s Joy, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rarified Flair 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Gigante 5-2 WON ($12.00)
Best Value: #6 Artico 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Free Soul 5-1 3rd

7th: Da Hoss, 3+, 5.5f-Outer (P4, P3, DD)

Yikes.. Hyper competitive dash..

Best Value: #7 Matta 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Yes and Yes 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Nobody Listens 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 County Final 8-1 3rd

8th: Rosies, 2yo, 5.5f-Outer (P3, DD)

Lightly raced juvy turf sprinters means guesswork..

Most Likely: #1 Call Me Ice Man 5-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Bal a Kazoo 10-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Grand Oak 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Opposites Attract 8-1 6th

P4 Grid:

5: 7-9 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
6: 2 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
7: 3-7-8 (A), 4-6-11 (B), – (C)
8: 1-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x1x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (1-6 in 6th): 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

9th: Virginia Oaks, 3yo-F, 9f-Inner (P3, DD)

With fave Oakhurst out-posted, this seems open to some that should enjoy advantageous trips..

Best Value: #3 Catiche 5-1 11th
Next Best: #13 Oakhurst 3-1 12th
Exotics Use: #9 Sparkle Blue 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Surprisingly 12-1 7th

10th: Virginia Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f-Inner (DD)

Half of this field looks eligible (1-2-5-7-9-10)..

Most Likely: #1 Royal Patronage 5-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Limited Liability 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Catnip 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Unanimous Consent 3-1 4th

P5 Grid:

6: 2 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 3-7 (A), 4-8 (B), – (C)
8: 1-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-13 (A), – (B), 2-9 (C)
10: 1-5-9 (A), 2-7-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $18 (2-9 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

7: 3-7 (A), 4-8 (B), – (C)
8: 1-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-13 (A), – (B), 2-9 (C)
10: 1-5-9 (A), – (B), 2-7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $18 (2-9 in 9th) + $18 (2-7-10 in 10th)

11th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-Outer

Best Value: #8 Soft Touch 6-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #1 Trail Ridge Road 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Batyah 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Vibrancy 12-1 6th

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Aidanike 7-2 5th
Next Best: #4 She Caught My Eye 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Daily Briefing 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Backyard Money 9-5 WON ($4.30)

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Lookin to Fly 12-1 9th ~ Depaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #1 (POE) Whatlovelookslike 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #2 New Ginya 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Waterville 9-2 3rd

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Nobilis 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Arctic Arrogance 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Sounds Spooky 3-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Radio Red 5-1 6th

8th: CLM, 3+, 9f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 War Stopper 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Air Attack 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Gentleman Joe 7-2 7th
Super Add: #7 Portos 9-2 2nd

9th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Sonic Speed 15-1 ~ Depaula BONUS Play of the Day (3rd time the charm?)
Next Best: #2 Reckless Spirit 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Digital Software 3-1
Super Add: 5 Voliero 8-1

P5 Grid:

5: 3-4-5 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
6: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
7: 2-3-8 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
9: 15-16 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x1x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups ($42): $12 (2-8 in 5th) + $12 (1-10 in 7th) + $18 (2 in 8th)

P4 Grid:

6: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
7: 2-3-8 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
8: 2-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 15-16 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A’s: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $8 (1-10 in 7th)

10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Cocktail Moments 5-1 WON ($7.30)
Next Best: #3 Jane Grey 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Shalimar Gardens 3-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Wicked Hot 6-1 9th

11th: Hopeful (G1), 2yo, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Gulfport 9-5 2nd ~ Beat Byk Selection
Next Best: #2 Forte 3-1 WON ($15.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Mo Strike 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Blazing Sevens 4-1 3rd

12th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f

Best Value: #5 Juliana’s Rose 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Tosconova Beauty 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Cupid’s Heart 7-2 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #11 Sue Ellen Mishkin SCR

P5 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 15-16 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-3-5 (A), – (B), 6-7-10 (C)
11: 4 (A), 2 (B), 5 (C)
12: 1-2-5 (A), – (B), 11/SCR (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups ($42): $18 (6-7-10 in 10th) + $18 (5 in 11th) + $6 (11 in 12th)

P4 Grid:

9: 15-16 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-3-5 (A), – (B), 6-7-10 (C)
11: 2-4 (A), 5 (B), – (C)
12: 1-2-5 (A), – (B), 11/SCR (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups ($24): $18 (6-7-10 in 10th) + $6 (11 in 12th)

$0.50 Pick Four (16-1-2-1) Paid $45.37

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Athenry 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Me ‘n Sap 12-1 WON ($24.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Sheriff Bianco 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #7 Giramonte 8-1 6th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Take Charge Briana 6-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #3 St. Benedict’s Prep 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Pure Pauline 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Stunningly 8-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-Inner (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Avant 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Free Look 3-1 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #3 La Mazel 5-1 4th
Super Add:

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Boston Post Road 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Palm Cottage 9-5 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Mystic Eyes 10-1 5th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Citizen K 10-1 2nd ~ Depaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #1a (POE) Catch That Party 2-1 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Timbuktu 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Lord Flintshire 6-1 8th

.50 TRI KEY: 10 w/ 1-3-4-6 (1x4x3 + 4x1x3 + 4x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18)

P5 Grid:

5: 4-8 (A), 6-7 (B), – (C)
6: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-9 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 2-4-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-10 (A), 4 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (3-6 in 7th): 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick 5 (4/2/4,5,11,12,13/6/1,9,12) Paid $920.00

P4 Grid:

6: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-9 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
8: 2-4-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-10 (A), 4 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/4,5,11,12,13/6/1,9,12) Paid $44.87

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-Inner (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Cape Cod Causeway 5-1 2nd ~ Depaula BONUS Play of the Day
Next Best: #6 Jocosity 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Can’t Fool Me 12-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Succulent 7-2 WON-DQ’d to 3rd

11th: Spinaway (G1), 2yo-F, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Wonder Wheel 3-1 2nd ~ Beat Byk Selection
Best Value: #5 Just Cindy 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Kaling 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Naughty Gal 8-1 9th

12th: NY-MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #1e Dubb Ownership entry 1-1 WON ($3.00)/2nd
Best Value: #9 Darn That Song 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Mouly 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Carlann 30-1 3rd/2nd for wagering

P5 Grid:

8: 2-4-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
11: 5-9 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
12: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

9: 1-4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
11: 5-9 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
12: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A’s: 3x2x2x1 = $12 ($6 for .50)