BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Emkanaat 5-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Happy Fella 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Cheyenne Nation 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Empty Headed 9-2 WON ($19.20)

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Love and Marriage 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #3 Truly Mizzed 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Forensic 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lady Lavery 8-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

What a tightly bunched group. As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday, don’t think 5-2 Sky Painter is any more likely than another half dozen in here..

Most Likely: #8 Fizzy Pink 5-1 4th
Best Value: #11 Miss Melina SCR
Next Best: #12 Distorted Beauty 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Sky Painter 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Funny Money 15-1 11th

8th: 21st Gallant Bloom (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Artemis Agrotera 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #4 Classic Point 15-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Willet 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Merry Meadow 4-1 4th

9th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (DD)

Will go to ‘other’ Chad Brown here as ‘likely’, but this is a mysterious group..

Most Likely: #9 Verger 5-1 10th
Best Value: #1 Street Jersey 10-1 3rd (2nd for wagering)
Next Best: #2e Darley entry 3-1 WON/2nd ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #1e Santulli ownership entry 6-1 6th/11th

10th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT

Pedigree players and strong trainer karmas abound here. Candidates clear but possibilities feel wide..

Most Likely: #6 Dubai Sky 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #4 Sanad 12-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Fire Away 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Grey Wizard 6-1 2nd

PHILADELPHIA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

12th: Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f

Candy Boy is still progressing and is by far the best price among the win candidates. Ideal key horse in this setting..

Best Value: #2 CANDY BOY 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 California Chrome 1-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Bayern 7-2 WON ($9.00)
Super Add: #5 Noble Moon 15-1 4th

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 27th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

An excellent wagering event even if 7-2 ML fave Annecdote runs her race first time NA (1st/Lasix) for Clement. Byrama (10-1), Devilish Love (6-1), Love Train (6-1), Medea (12-1), Julie’s Love (10-1) and Baffle Me (5-1) all have credentials/styles that can impact this in any pay slot. Unless you’re convinced Annecdote ‘can’t lose’, feels like you’ll need to spread to start the P4..

Best Value: #1 Byrama 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Baffle Me 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Annecdote 7-2 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #7 Medea 12-1 7th

8th: 20th Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Agree with Nick Tammaro’s Friday ATR thoughts that Ball Dancing — out of the Group 1 Prix de Diane — has potential to excel in this solid group at a decent price (for a Chad Brown import). Xcellence, Brown’s other Euro-soph, has now been beaten twice in the US and had zero excuses upstate when failing to get the money in the Lake Placid after putting her head in front late. Plenty of obvious candidates in good form (Sea Queen, A Little Bit Sassy, Daring Dancer) are signed on here, but Miss Besilu (10-1) offers bonus pricing returning the grass after a summer of modest main track success including an Alabama board hit. Walk Close (15-1) looks like the type who can clunk up for 3rd or 4th. Mott and Clement at 10-1 and 15-1 respectively? Yes please..

Most Likely: #10 Ball Dancing 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #1 Xcellence 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Miss Besilu 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Walk Close 15-1 4th

9th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (DD)

Some nice pedigrees here. Pletcher’s Daredevil (More Than Ready) a half to Albertus Maximus (Albert the Great); Donk’s Mandolin Wins (Bluegrass Cat) half to Fiftyshadesofhay (Pulpit); Wild Dynaformer (Dynaformer) a half to full Pulpit brothers Pyro and Longview Drive. Hot 2yo barns send Bow Tie Boss (Jerkens) and Mizumi (Asmussen). Orseno’s 2nd out Breezy My Way exits the 8/9 Spa MSW that produced Requite-Two Weeks Off-Da Jenius. Tricky read on this potentially important set..

Most Likely: #4 Daredevil 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Bow Tie Boss 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Breezy My Way 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Mandolin Wins 15-1 4th

10th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #4 Mobridge 9-2 9th
Next Best: #10 Sneaky Kitten 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Analysis 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Hurry Up Alan 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Status of Forces 50-1 12th

$75 P4 Grid/Plays:

7: 1-6-9 (A), 3-4-7 (B), 2-5-8 (C)
8: 1-10 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-6-8-9 (C)
9: 4 (A), 1 (B), 2-3-5-6-7-8-9 (C)
10: 4 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-8-12 (C)

Simple A/B’s: 6x2x2x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)

Option with single of Daredevil in 9th and using 6 in 10th:

7: 1-3-4-6-7-9
8: 1-10
9: 4
10: 1-4-7-8-10-12

6x2x1x6 = $72 ($36 for .50)

Full A/B/C’s: 11 plays = $75

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 4 with 4 – $3.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4,7 with 1,10 with 4 with 4 – $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 1 with 4 – $3.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 4 with 7,10 – $6.00

A’s with Two B’s

5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4,7 with 1,10 with 1 with 4 – $3.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4,7 with 1,10 with 4 with 7,10 – $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 1 with 7,10 – $6.00

A’s with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 2,5,8 with 1,10 with 4 with 4 – $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 4 with 4 – $12.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9 with 4 – $21.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6,9 with 1,10 with 4 with 1,8,12 – $9.00

Total: $75.00

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Four that have run exit Spa turf routes (Mott-Maker-Dilger-Friedman), while inside/outside faves Cover Up (Shug) and Kinsley (Pletcher) stretch out from debuts. Tony Dutrow offers Cara Marie, a $460k Three Chimneys purchase that has mixed signals as to readiness. Tricky start to late P4..

Most Likely: #1 Cover Up 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Kinsley 5-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Classy Teacher 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Midnight Citra 5-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Golden Story 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Charlie’s Picnic 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #3 Bajan Summer 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Lunar Tales 7-2 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Encryption 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 M J Plus 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Mosler 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Sir Leslie 10-1 7th

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #11 Bella Kateri 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #9 Rose Quartz 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Maura’s Pass 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: ##5 Roman Reign 12-1 6th

P4 Grid:

6: 1-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 3 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 3-5 (B), 2 (C)
8: 1-8 (A), 6 (B), 5-7 (C)
9: 11 (A), 1-9 (B), 4-5 (C)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Pacelessness adds layer of mystery to this group of mediocrities. After the obvious (2-4-6-7), Porvoo a goofy 30-1 player that is dropping in for tag after being run over her head in various ALW’s for ages. Gets weight break and rail and has numerous competitive races..

Most Likely: #2 Eddy’s Time 3-1
Next Best: #4 Barbara’s Smile 7-2
Best Value: #1 Porvoo 30-1
Exotics Use: #7 Casey Roo 5-2

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Everything unfolds depending on what happens with Sweet Sway and Trail Walker up front. If they vie for lead, the stalkers benefit, but if one or the other gets away easy, everything goes up in the air..

Most Likely: #1 Bobby Jo 2-1
Best Value: #4 What the Frost 12-1
Next Best: #2 Mama Zee 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Trail Walker 6-1

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Not convinced the obvious are the way to go here. Contessa’s ADK Posse a half to the good, fast 6x winner Too Tough Jake. May fire at first asking..

Most Likely: #3 Adirondack Posse 5-1
Best Value: #7 Black Friday Rush 12-1
Next Best: #1 Tiz a Chance 9-5
Exotics Use: #5 One Eyed Ray 3-1
Super Add: #4 Boldlee 7-2

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

If the pace players (5-7-8) gut each other, Castellano can pounce with Finding Candy..

Best Value: #3 Finding Candy 8-1
Next Best: #5 Groomedforvictory 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Herbal Prospector 4-1
Super Add: #7 Big Town 7-2

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Here He Fitz 12-1
Next Best: #2 Groupthink 9-5
Exotics Use: #1 Bluegrass Flash 7-2
Super Add: #3 Here Comes Tommy 5-1

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 2yo-F, 5.5f

Most Likely: #8 My Ellierose 4-1
Next Best: #9 Giant Hearted Lee 3-1
Best Value: #4 Writing 20-1
Exotics Use: #7 Captain Munnings 5-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 2-4
5: 1
6: 1-3-7
7: 3-5
8: 2-5
9: 8-9

2x1x3x2x2x2 = 48 X $2 = $96

$82 P4 Play:

6: 3-7 (A), 1 (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 3-5 (A), 8 (B), 7 (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 1 (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 8-9 (A), 4-7 (B), 3-5-6-10 (C)

All A’s

3,7/3,5/2,5/8,9 = 8.00

A’s with One B

1/3,5/2,5/8,9 = 4.00
3,7/8/2,5/8,9 = 4.00
3,7/3,5/1/8,9 = 4.00
3,7/3,5/2,5/4,7 = 8.00

A’s with Two B

1/8/2,5/8,9 = 1.00
1/3,5/1/8,9 = 2.00
1/3,5/2,5/4,7 = 4.00
3,7/8/1/8,9 = 2.00
3,7/8/2,5/4,7 = 4.00
3,7/3,5/1/4,7 = 4.00

A’s with One C

4,5/3,5/2,5/8,9 = 8.00
3,7/7/2,5/8,9 = 4.00
3,7/3,5/3,4/8,9 = 8.00
3,7/3,5/2,5/3,5,6,10 = 16.00

Total = $82.00

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Arch Avenger has improved 3-4 lengths since moving to grass. Candir another who looks like different horse on lawn, but 7-5 tough to accept. Mott gets Dobra Historia back for 3yo debut and gives him a chance on the turf. By Unbridled’s Song out of good Amoss SW sprinter Miss Lodi, Dobra Historia’s full brother Lead Singer owns both his career wins on the green..

Best Value: #7 Arch Avenger 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Candir 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Dobra Historia 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Strong Stipulation 10-1 4th

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Came in looking to beat 2-1 fave Brendan G but reality is he can sit comfortably behind pacesetters or go on with it if Velasquez chooses..

Most Likely: #7 Brendan G 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Solly’s Mischief 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #4 Ice Wagon 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Two Seventeen 8-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Balancing this group’s contenders means evaluating the MDN events from which those that have run exit and Lucky Leroy Brown out of the Strong Coffee-Face the Music-Firespike looks like chief beneficiary by that method. Royal Squeeze should improve after tardy start in Designed for War race 8/9 at Spa. Vision Perfect (Donk) and King of New York were steady 2nd in debuts. Shug unveils Janney H/B Command Control (Smart Strike), half to Seal Cove, Norumbega, Quiet Harbor, etc. May jump right in among these solid but unremarkable turf babies. Goldberg (#9 St. Louie, 10-1) is 6/1-2-0 since last fall debuting runners in turf routes. Expect Santulli homebred by Arch has some quality to him..

Most Likely: #4 Vision Perfect 7-2 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #2 Animal Kracker 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Royal Squeeze 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Lucky Leroy Brown 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Command Control 6-1 7th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

Turf test at the classic distance and only a couple appear to have bona fide credentials for the task and don’t think Joe’s Blazing Aaron can wire them..

Most Likely: #2 Red Vine 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Shock Leader 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Star Channel 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Artic North 6-1 2nd

9th: 1st Yankee Affair, 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Tricky 12 panel affair that looks like it may have an actual assembly of pace with Red Rifle, Slim Shady and Elnaawi keeping each other honest. If that happens, ralling Reflecting will have every opportunity to get in his run..

SCR NOTE: Legendary will run in MD..

Most Likely: #1 Reflecting 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Slim Shadey 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Red Rifle 2-1 WON ($5.40)

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Messy looking group with some career maiden types. Four of these missees take MSW to MCLM drop (2-3-9-10) and it may be as simple as corralling them. Fire Ship, Keep Right and Sweetdreamsaboutme toiling at $40k level, but note each has isolated merit upon inspection. Bad horses win bad races, so be prepared for anything including 6yo mare Mini Muffin 2nd whose pre-Saratoga effort turf sprinting produced the best last race Beyer (62) in this field..

Most Likely: #9 Lil’ Zilla 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Sweetdreamsaboutme 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Keep Right 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Chrissy Girl 7-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Fire Ship 3-1 WON ($9.60)

<$200 P6 Grid:

5: 6-7 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
6: 7 (A), – (B), 2-4-6 (C)
7: 4 (A), 2-3-7 (B), 5-8-9 (C)
8: 2 (A), 6-9 (B), 1-5-7 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2 (B), 3-6 (C)
10: 9 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-2-3-5-6-8-10 (C)

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $12.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 with 1 with 9 – $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 2 with 9 – $4.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 4,7 – $8.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 6,9 with 1 with 9 – $24.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 2 with 2 with 9 – $12.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 2 with 1 with 4,7 – $24.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 with 2 with 9 – $8.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 with 1 with 4,7 – $16.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 2 with 4,7 – $8.00

A’s with One C

12 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $2.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 2,4,6 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $12.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 5,8,9 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $12.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 1,5 with 1 with 9 – $8.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 3,6 with 9 – $8.00
17 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,8,10 – $28.00

Total: $198.00

<$75 P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-4 (A), 5-7-9 (B), 6-8 (C)
8: 2 (A), 4-6-9 (B), 1-5-7 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2-6 (B), 3 (C)
10: 9 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-2-3-5-6-8-10 (C)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $1.50

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $1.50
3 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 4,6,9 with 1 with 9 – $4.50
4 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 2,6 with 9 – $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 1 with 3,4,7 – $4.50

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 4,6,9 with 1 with 9 – $4.50
7 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 2 with 2,6 with 9 – $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 2 with 1 with 3,4,7 – $4.50
9 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 4,6,9 with 2,6 with 9 – $9.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 4,6,9 with 1 with 3,4,7 – $13.50
11 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 2,6 with 3,4,7 – $9.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 2 with 1 with 9 – $1.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 1,5,7 with 1 with 9 – $4.50
14 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 3 with 9 – $1.50
15 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 1 with 1,2,5,6,8,10 – $9.00

Total: $74.50

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Power Nap 5-1
Next Best: #1 Sourcesandmethods 5-2
Best Value: #8 Tanner’s Popsicle 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Reed’s Bridge 12-1

8th: 31st Locust Grove, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Don’t Tell Sophia 5-2
Next Best: #7 Molly Morgan 5-2
Best Value: #5 Ria Antonia 8-1
Exotics Use: #3 On Fire Baby 2-1

9th: 33rd Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Hashtag Bourbon 4-1
Best Value: #7 Danny Boy 6-1
Next Best: #2 Mr. Z 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Cleveland Sound 6-1

10th: 46th Pocahontas (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Pangburn 9-2
Best Value: #6 Frolic to the Wire 10-1
Next Best: #1 Loom 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Take Charge Brandi 7-2

11th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Sky Hero 7-2
Next Best: #4 Risetotheoccasion 4-1
Best Value: #1 Sturdy Allen 6-1
Exotics Use: #3 Divine Storm 4-1

P5 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), – (B), 4-8-9 (C)
8: 6 (A), 7 (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-6-8 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-7-8 (C)
11: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 3-6 (C)

P4 Grid:

8: 6-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 2 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2-7-6 (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-7-8 (C)
11: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 3-6 (C)