Every year we arrive at this juncture and I introduce the Breeders’ Cup invocation. The Cup offers unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they’ve become. No matter how well you ‘handicap’ the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an ‘0-fer’ going into Saturday’s finale and get it all back, and more, in the 2:02.0 it takes to run Saturday’s Classic. But no matter how the ledger looks when it’s over, appreciate that your ability as a horseplayer won’t be defined over the course of 2 days. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here’s hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.

It’s again been a pleasure trying to bring the flavor of the Cup to everyone listening and I hope there was something offered that you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Santa Anita, ATR’s sponsors and everyone who contributed so generously to the shows.. Best of luck this weekend!

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Intoxicating Move 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Hide My Heart 4-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Mum’s Truckee 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Blingismything 6-1 WON ($22.40)

2nd: Las Vegas Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Cary Street 10-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #3 Irish Surf 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Sky Kingdom 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Big Cazanova 5-2 5th

3rd: 2nd Golden St. Juvenile Fillies-Cal, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 MY FIONA 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Tatum’s Gold 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ashley’s Sassy 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Stormy Adieu 9-2 3rd

4th: 3rd Twilight Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$7.00 favorites (Gabriel Charles; Speaking of Which) have been nipped in first two runnings of this event by 8-1 Rookie Sensation and 5-1 Grandeur respectively. Mott’s Long On Value fits the profile here with Ring Weekend as the choice you’d like to best. Muddled pace picture adds to the intrigue in deep, challenging G2..

Most Likely: #10 Long On Value 6-1 WON ($25.00)
Next Best: #11 Ring Weekend 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Enterprising 7-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Sawyer’s Hill 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Talco 8-1 5th

5th: 5th Damascus, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Magic Mark 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Midnight Hawk 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Bahamian Squall 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Little Bit O’Fun 12-1 8th

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-8-11
2: 3-5-7-9
3: 4
4: 6-10-11
5: 2-6-11

4x4x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 8th BC Juvenile Turf, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Coolmore has been a force in this event and War Envoy a worthy key. As in the juvy girls race an hour later, worthwhile including some price types with the logical and as Ric Hammerle explained, the extreme post on the turf with rails down is not a fatal blow. People will abandon value Danny Boy here and filly Qualify later, but both figure prominently..

Most Likely: #7 War Envoy 9-2 12th
Best Value: #14 Danny Boy 20-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Commemorative 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Daddy D T 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Offering Plan 20-1 13th

<$50 P4 Grid:

3: 4
4: 1-2-6-10-11
5: 2-6-11
6: 4-7-14

1x5x3x3 = $45

7th: 8th BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Everyone seems prepared to accept Goldencents as a slam dunk. There seems to be some pace pressure, but if it’s not the ’13 winner, who is it? A quandry for your multi-race wagers..

Most Likely: #1 Goldencents 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #9 Tapiture 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Fed Biz 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Big Bane Theory 15-1 5th

8th: 7th BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Race has seen short-numbered Euros Vorda and Sky Lantern fail as choices last 2 years in favor of 7-1 Chriselliam and 11-1 Flotilla. As discussed on ATR in ‘Reverse Tri Key’ conversation, 37-1 Colonel Joan and 43-1 Summer of Fun nabbed exotic boosting 3rds in those runnings..

Most Likely: #4 Lady Eli 6-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #14 Qualify 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Rainha Da Bateria 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Osaila 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Quality Rocks 20-1 10th

9th: 31st BC Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Distaff-Classic Double, Super Hi-5, DD)

As presented on ATR, this race got more unsettled the more I looked at it. Untapable or Close Hatches can win with authority or the pace could go nuclear and even Unbridled Forever could clunk by everyone. I’ll keep it pretty simple with the big favorites and Pia Brandt’s imposing grey French invader L’Amour de Ma Vie..

Most Likely: #10 Untapable 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #1 L’Amour de Ma Vie 15-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Close Hatches 3-1 11th
Exotics Use: #9 Ria Antonia 15-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Don’t Tell Sophia 5-1 2nd

$60 P4 Grid:

6: 7 (A), 4-14 (B), 1-2-5-8-10 (C)
7: 1 (A), 8-9 (B), – (C)
8: 4-14 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-5-10 (C)
9: 10-11 (A), 1-9 (B), 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 (C)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/1,5/4,9,15,16/10) Paid $78.85

<$100 HRTV Distaff-Classic Double:

DIS: 10-11
CLS: 2-6-7-8-9-11-13-14

2×8 = 16 x $5 = $80

DIS: 1-9
CLS: 2-6-7-8-9-11-13-14

2×8 = $16

10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #2 Day of Fury 6-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Jimmy Bouncer 9-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #9 Demonic 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 El Nino Terrible 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Toledo Eddie 8-1 3rd

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tizquick 6-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #8 Andrew Got Zip 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 David Rocks 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Summer Hawk 10-1 5th

2nd: 18th Sleepy Hollow-NY, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

If Ostrolenka is such a reliable choice here, why did Pletcher/Barber keep MD Million eligible Bullheaded Boy home? This set feels slippery..

Most Likely: #2 Ostrolenka 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #7 Good Luck Gus 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bullheaded Boy 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Market Conduct 5-1 3rd

3rd: 18th Maid of the Mist-NY, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Romans fave ‘Patty’ was under BC Juvy Filly consideration..

Most Likely: #9 Temper Mint Patty 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Myfourchix 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Quezon 7-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Sandra 6-1 4th

4th: 36th Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Top 3 interchangeable..

Best Value: #1 Kharafa 5-1 WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #9 Lubash 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 King Kreesa 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #8 Notacatbutallama 6-1 4th

5th: 36th Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 La Verdad 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #4 Willet 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Risky Rachel 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Irish Whisper 15-1 8th

<$75 P5 Grid:

1: 2 (A), – (B), 6-7-8 (C)
2: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 4 (C)
3: 9 (A), 4 (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 8 (B), – (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 6 (B), 5 (C)

A/B: $48
Full A/B/C: $70 $0.50 Pick-5 (1,2/2/6/1/8,9) Paid $161.25

<$60 P4 Grid:

2: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 4 (C)
3: 9 (A), 4 (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 8 (B), – (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 6 (B), 5 (C)

A/B: $36
Full A/B/C: $52 $0.50 Pick-4 (2/6/1/8,9) Paid $62.87

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ode to the Hunt 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #1 Scooby Dude 12-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Persuasive Devil 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Brother O’Connell 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Threes Are Wild 8-1 8th

7th: 1st Empire Distaff-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Who besides Carameaway is going to want to challenge Princess Violet? Do they go 1-2 all the way? Rosario and Sunny Desert is the intrigue..

Most Likely: #5 Princess Violet 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #3 Sunny Desert 5-1 8th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Carameaway 7-2 3rd/7th
Exotics Use: #6 Lady Gracenote 20-1 4th

8th: 39th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Start of late P4 that has excellent potential and premium playability if you fully support Discreet Marq in the 9th. This is a good group of hard-hitters with authentic pace that should provide all with an honest chance. Defending winner Saratoga Snacks faces a more challenging set here than a year ago and his summer form appears to make him a vulnerable fave. Should be set for best but that may not be enough. Three year olds are a big part of this and emergent Sioux looms imposing with continued forward progress and if the 9th panel is to his liking. Fellow sophs So Lonesome, Effinex and Eye Luv Lulu have equal upside. Just no easy eliminations here..

Most Likely: #8 Sioux 5-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Effinex 15-1 WON ($37.20)
Next Best: #3 Saratoga Snacks 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Eye Luv Lulu 15-1 5th

9th: 34th Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Discreet Marq 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Strike Accord 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Invading Humor 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Effie Trinket 9-2 4th

10th: 37th Hudson-NY, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

As competitive as the Classic..

Most Likely: #7 Moonlight Song 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Best Value: #10 Captain Serious 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Big Business 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 West Hills Giant 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (7-5) Paid $35.75
$1 Trifecta (7-5-2) Paid $244.75
$1 Superfecta (7-5-2-10) Paid $1,462.00

11th: NY-MSW, 3+,

Best Value: #5 Manoffire 6-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Spider Roll 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Runaway Posse 4-1 WON ($7.90)
Super Add: #4 Spark to Ignite 5-1 8th

<$100 P4 Grid:

8: 3-5-8 (A), 4-6-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 10 (A), – (B), 5-6-9 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 2-4-5-6 (B), 6-9 (C)
11: 5-11 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-8 (C)

A/B $72; Full A/B/C: $100 $0.50 Pick-4 (5/4,10,13,14,15/7/3) Paid $431.00

You’ve heard me talk about Andy Harrington/National Turf many times, but I’m going to do another plug here. Friday’s Santa Anita nightcap was a rag tag MDN CLM affair with an obvious favorite in Freakin Amazing and little other clear contenders. It was a spot that cried out for a price inclusion and reaching for a hint or two from Harrington’s workout notes was vital. Eddie Freeman’s Native Heart was making a 2nd start, an area the trainer excels, and his 10/1 drill produced this Harrington comment: May be better than debut going the last 1/4 in 24.3 under some late wraps. Rounding forward. — Grade: B-.

Freeman’s strong 21% 2nd/start and that encouraging Harrington blurb was all you really need when looking for an offbeat option. Native Heart proceeded to run a courageous race at 55-1, only yielding in the last few jumps to the highly likely favorite. The exacta paid $150 and the tri $1,136 with the 2nd choice running third. National Turf costs $10 for Harrington’s view of 80% of a card’s workouts and you can’t play Southern California seriously without it.

Hope everyone did well Friday. Big multi-day carryovers at Belmont and Santa Anita today, but I’m on the road for a wedding and only have Keeneland ideas today..

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Stays on turf being called ‘soft’.. Bitty Kitty!

Most Likely: ##11 Keening 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Liz Pendens 10-1 6th
Next Best: #13 Modernstone 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Bitty Kitty 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #8 Fine Assay 15-1 12th

7th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Sarah Sis 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #6 Know It All Anna 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Nagzilla 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Rachel’s Ready 12-1 9th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Divine Beauty 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Devious d’Oro 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Street Girl 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Brown Eyed Mary 7-2 6th

9th: 31st Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Ball Dancing 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sistas Stroll 12-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #2 Minorette 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Crown Queen 4-1 WON ($7.20)

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Holiday Twist 3-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Tiz Sexy Now 8-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Silverpocketsfull 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Get Set Go 12-1 5th

P5 Grid:

6: 4-11 (A), 6-13 (B), 3-8-12 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 8 (B), 4-7 (C)
8: 7 (A), 8 (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-2 (B), 8 (C)
10: 4 (A), 11-12 (B), 2-7-10 (C)

P4 Grid:

7: 1-6-8 (A), 7 (B), 4 (C)
8: 7 (A), 8 (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-2 (B), 8 (C)
10: 4 (A), 11-12 (B), 2-7-10 (C)

SANTA ANITA RESULTS 10/10

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Willing to Travel 3-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #1 Battle of Evermore 5-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Metaboss 8-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Stormy Liberal 15-1 (C) WON ($38.80)

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Fascinating 6-5 (A) 4th
Best Value: #2 Interject 6-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #3 Live for Now 5-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Art of War 12-1 (C) 6th
Super Add: #8 Kirov 5-2 (C) WON ($14.60)

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Fantastic Mizz 5-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #5 Cravin’ the Heat 12-1 (B) 7th
Next Best: #4 Doctor Glynis 8-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sunset Skies 9-2 (C) 5th

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tim’s Go Girl 7-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #8 Jetbird 15-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #6 Small Moves 4-1 (B) WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Adriatic Style 8-1 (C) 4th
Super Add: #5 Nueva Fortuna 4-1 (C) 6th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ethnic Dance 3-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #7 Kulik Lodge 5-2 (A) WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Te Rapa 4-1 (B) 5th
Super Add: #3 Mega Heat 4-1 (C) 4th

8th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Freakin Amazing 3-1 (A) WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #4 Native Heart 20-1 (B) 2nd
Next Best: #10 Seek Safe Harbor 4-1 (C) 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Scatchmeifyoucan 7-2 (C) 8th
Super Add: #5 Honey Nugget 12-1 (C) 6th

KEENELAND RESULTS 10/8

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 My Pal Paul 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Is Silver Good 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Party Time 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Soldier Inthe Rain 8-1 WON ($19.40)

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Note #13 Watchyourownbobber (4-1) DOES get in.. #2 Courtier a half to Emollient; #5 Sports Book by Md’O out of MGSW Padua mare Bohemian Lady; #8 Czar a half to Cerro; #10 My Curby a McPeek production (as discussed on ATR today) being by Curlin out of MGSW My Baby Baby..

Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #1 Cold Spice 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 My Curby 6-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Sports Book 10-1 12th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

With Joy Boy out, ascendant Magical Moment (8-1) could wire this..

Best Value: #4 Magical Moment 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Catholic Cowboy 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Donoharm 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Viva Majorca 5-2 3rd

8th: 24th Jessamine (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Quality Rocks 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Late Spring 15-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Rainha Da Bateria 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Fila Primera 4-1 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Une Cherise 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tap Twenty One 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Enchanting Lisa 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Temper 10-1 –
Hi-5 Play: #9 Playful Love 10-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

5: 1-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 2-3 (C)
6: 1-6 (A), 5-10 (B), 2-8-13 (C)
7: 4 (A), 9-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 4 (A), 5-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
9: 4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A/B’s): 4x4x3x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C’s): $57

P4 Grid:

6: 1-5-6 (A), 2-8-10 (B), 3-13 (C)
7: 4 (A), 9-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 4 (A), 3-5-9 (B), 8 (C)
9: 4 (A), 3 (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A/B’s): 6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C’s): $44.50