31st Breeders’ Cup: Friday 10/31 ($148k C/O)
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Every year we arrive at this juncture and I introduce the Breeders’ Cup invocation. The Cup offers unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they’ve become. No matter how well you ‘handicap’ the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an ‘0-fer’ going into Saturday’s finale and get it all back, and more, in the 2:02.0 it takes to run Saturday’s Classic. But no matter how the ledger looks when it’s over, appreciate that your ability as a horseplayer won’t be defined over the course of 2 days. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here’s hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.
It’s again been a pleasure trying to bring the flavor of the Cup to everyone listening and I hope there was something offered that you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Santa Anita, ATR’s sponsors and everyone who contributed so generously to the shows.. Best of luck this weekend!
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Best Value: #11 Intoxicating Move 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Hide My Heart 4-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Mum’s Truckee 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Blingismything 6-1 WON ($22.40)
2nd: Las Vegas Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #9 Cary Street 10-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #3 Irish Surf 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Sky Kingdom 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Big Cazanova 5-2 5th
3rd: 2nd Golden St. Juvenile Fillies-Cal, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 MY FIONA 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Tatum’s Gold 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ashley’s Sassy 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Stormy Adieu 9-2 3rd
4th: 3rd Twilight Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$7.00 favorites (Gabriel Charles; Speaking of Which) have been nipped in first two runnings of this event by 8-1 Rookie Sensation and 5-1 Grandeur respectively. Mott’s Long On Value fits the profile here with Ring Weekend as the choice you’d like to best. Muddled pace picture adds to the intrigue in deep, challenging G2..
Most Likely: #10 Long On Value 6-1 WON ($25.00)
Next Best: #11 Ring Weekend 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Enterprising 7-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Sawyer’s Hill 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Talco 8-1 5th
5th: 5th Damascus, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #6 Magic Mark 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Midnight Hawk 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Bahamian Squall 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Little Bit O’Fun 12-1 8th
<$75 P5 Play:
1: 1-3-8-11
2: 3-5-7-9
3: 4
4: 6-10-11
5: 2-6-11
4x4x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: 8th BC Juvenile Turf, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Coolmore has been a force in this event and War Envoy a worthy key. As in the juvy girls race an hour later, worthwhile including some price types with the logical and as Ric Hammerle explained, the extreme post on the turf with rails down is not a fatal blow. People will abandon value Danny Boy here and filly Qualify later, but both figure prominently..
Most Likely: #7 War Envoy 9-2 12th
Best Value: #14 Danny Boy 20-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Commemorative 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Daddy D T 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Offering Plan 20-1 13th
<$50 P4 Grid:
3: 4
4: 1-2-6-10-11
5: 2-6-11
6: 4-7-14
1x5x3x3 = $45
7th: 8th BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
Everyone seems prepared to accept Goldencents as a slam dunk. There seems to be some pace pressure, but if it’s not the ’13 winner, who is it? A quandry for your multi-race wagers..
Most Likely: #1 Goldencents 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #9 Tapiture 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Fed Biz 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Big Bane Theory 15-1 5th
8th: 7th BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Race has seen short-numbered Euros Vorda and Sky Lantern fail as choices last 2 years in favor of 7-1 Chriselliam and 11-1 Flotilla. As discussed on ATR in ‘Reverse Tri Key’ conversation, 37-1 Colonel Joan and 43-1 Summer of Fun nabbed exotic boosting 3rds in those runnings..
Most Likely: #4 Lady Eli 6-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #14 Qualify 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Rainha Da Bateria 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Osaila 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Quality Rocks 20-1 10th
9th: 31st BC Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Distaff-Classic Double, Super Hi-5, DD)
As presented on ATR, this race got more unsettled the more I looked at it. Untapable or Close Hatches can win with authority or the pace could go nuclear and even Unbridled Forever could clunk by everyone. I’ll keep it pretty simple with the big favorites and Pia Brandt’s imposing grey French invader L’Amour de Ma Vie..
Most Likely: #10 Untapable 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #1 L’Amour de Ma Vie 15-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Close Hatches 3-1 11th
Exotics Use: #9 Ria Antonia 15-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Don’t Tell Sophia 5-1 2nd
$60 P4 Grid:
6: 7 (A), 4-14 (B), 1-2-5-8-10 (C)
7: 1 (A), 8-9 (B), – (C)
8: 4-14 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-5-10 (C)
9: 10-11 (A), 1-9 (B), 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 (C)
$0.50 Pick-4 (5/1,5/4,9,15,16/10) Paid $78.85
<$100 HRTV Distaff-Classic Double:
DIS: 10-11
CLS: 2-6-7-8-9-11-13-14
2×8 = 16 x $5 = $80
DIS: 1-9
CLS: 2-6-7-8-9-11-13-14
2×8 = $16
10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f
Most Likely: #2 Day of Fury 6-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Jimmy Bouncer 9-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #9 Demonic 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 El Nino Terrible 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Toledo Eddie 8-1 3rd