BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Super cancelled..

Most Likely: #5 Chairman Tucker 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Wise Stop 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Next Best: #4 Masala 2-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $11.40

2nd: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

A lot of speed signed on here, and the 8-5 fave seems versatile..

Super cancelled..

Most Likely: #4 Dawly 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tatao’s Widcat 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #6 Ultimo Principle 4-1 5th

$1 Exacta (3-4) Paid $15.30

3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Arena Elvira 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Ask the Moon 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ailalea 5-2 5th

4th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$1.1MM P6 Carryover starts here..

Top pair exit same race and seem to have little seperating them. (Empiricist was further back in that event as well, and then competed in an OTT heat.) Imaging has faced serious foes in FL this winter and figures as the most likely upsetter if the faves fail. Halefellow Wellmet will get play and I won’t fault those including him. But I wouldn’t trust the ACRC debut fig, and the horse behind him there (Bellhouse) is a chronic case that can’t win..

Most Likely: #7 Clear Attempt 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 Colossal Gift 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Imaging 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Empiricist 10-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $6.50
$1 Trifecta (7-3-8) Paid $31.50
$1 Superfecta (7-3-8-5) Paid $100.20

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Fleeting Glance 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Grace and Courage 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Must Be Love 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #3 Olive Eye 8-1 9th

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $18.00
$1 Trifecta (1-2-8) Paid $55.00

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-6
3: 1-2-5
4: 3-5-7-8
5: 1-2-3-8

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

With the 7th to follow, this middle pair of races are the most difficult portion of the sequence to negotiate. Several here have efforts on their page that can win this, and there are trainer shifts and other karma moves to consider in this chess match of a sprint. Was Able Bellamy just mudlarking in his April win? How much of a move up can you expect from Prince of Danger going to Fawkes from Tesher and facing Empire breds for the first time? How about the first start at 3 for Our Brave Warrior now with Hushion? Turf to dirt a positive move for Trombetta (Decision Point), and gelding did break his maiden on the strip. Is Jungle Rain an AQI Inner jump up only? Many more issues like these to decipher..

Most Likely: #6 Able Bellamy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Prince of Danger 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #10 Our Brave Warrior 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Jungle Rain 7-2 5th

$1 Exacta (9-6) Paid $35.25
$1 Pick 3 (7/1/9) Paid $91.00

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Not a lot of wisdom to impart here as there are almost no auto-tosses out of this brain-bending group. Trips will determine outcome, so you have to cast your lot and hope for the best..

Best Value: #11 Mustang Fever 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Ms Stilleto 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Lemon Punch 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Downtown Hottie 15-1 5th

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Turf sprint that seems to have a fairly well-defined pecking order. AE #13 Saratoga Steve (5-1) has drawn in and needs to be respected..

Most Likely: #11 Upper Afleet 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #13 Saratoga Steve 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Tudor King 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Backcountry Boy 20-1 10th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

#8 R Clever Cat 8-5 a SCR!

Best Value: #6 Windsor Star 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Vintage Heirloom 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Tillie’s Girl 12-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Copious Notes 6-1 WON ($9.80)

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-5-7
5: 2-8
6: 6-9
7: 7-11
8: 11-13
9: 3-6

3x2x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-6-9-10
7: 5-7-11
8: 10-11-13
9: 3-4-6-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Rained heavily overnight in Elmont and the Belmont main is very sloppy at this hour… More storms appear to be in the area with the greatest chance for extra precip coming before noon. It doesn’t appear that the sun will shine and there isn’t any wind, so drying the track out completely by the Belmont’s 6:35pm post may not be possible. Monitor the main track’s progress carefully as the day goes on, because there is a possibility we could have a very heavy, ‘peanut buttery’ main by late this afternoon. Anticipate grass courses may be yielding, but check update HERE by 7:30a…

Visit ATR.com for the Preview Show with Andy Beyer, Jay Privman, Gus Alonso, Nick Tammaro, Steve Haskin and Rick Hammerle. Also, replay in the morning 6-10a ET on Sirius 93 & XM 209… Hope everyone enjoyed the ATR coverage this week and throughout the Triple Crown. Recap Monday from Belmont!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Day’s first turf route and as I prepare this analysis Friday afternoon, the Belmont grass courses appear to still be giving it up to forwardly placed runners despite Thursday night’s rain. I’m going to approach these lawn routes figuring it will take hot fractions to allow deep closers to succeed today. This particular race features 2 first North American mystery horses from Ribaudo/Keller (#6 Eternal Ruler, 8-1) and KMc/Allen (#8 Marine Officer, 6-1) that are complete unknowns, so watch the board..

Best Value: #1 Lubango 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Batter Up 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Royal Straight 8-1
Super Add: #4 Pretty Boy Freud 5-1 6th

2nd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Crushing 7-2 5th
Next Best: #3 August Osage 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Bold Choice 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Noble Doss 15-1 3rd

3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 In Just We Trust 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #10 Forty Prayers 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Easy Gallop 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Belongs to Sheila 15-1 6th

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Top pair are 3yo’s that will likely target King’s Bishop from here..

Most Likely: #5 Ripples n’ Waves 7-2 DNF
Next Best: #7 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Johannesburg Smile 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Mineswept 12-1 3rd

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Intriguing Empire bred ALW set, and history says the ML means little. #13 (AE) Boat demands attention if drawing in, though the outside offsets some of his potential appeal..

Best Value: #7 Hangover Kid 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Shekomeko Kid 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Carbon County 8-1 12th
Super Add: #5 Mr. Hooker 30-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 4
3: 4-3-10-12-13
4: 4-5-7-11
5: 1-5-7-9-11

1x5x4x5 = $100 x .50 = $50

6th: 81st Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$144k C/O, ‘Guaranteed $1,000,000 P6’ starts here..

2010 of this race had a baker’s dozen and produced one of the year’s biggest scores for ATR/DT followers when Guillot’s Champagne d’Oro came through for an $80 score-o. A California shipper is again the focus, but we’ll be lucky to get .80 on Mike Puype’s nearly perfect Turbulent Descent. Backup tickets with the 1 & 4 for the big P6 and other multis aren’t the worst idea since success over this surface is never guaranteed, but it will be a surprise if the Congrats bay doesn’t produce as a single..

Most Likely: #2 Turbulent Descent 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Her Smile 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 It’s Tricky 6-1 WON ($22.00)

7th: 33rd True North H. (G2), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Everyone seems to be bowing down to Trappe Shot in this spot, and while I respect him, I don’t think he is nearly the lay-up he is being made out to be..

SCR #4 Rule by Night..

Most Likely: #1e Pompa entry 2-1 2nd/4th
Next Best: #3 Trappe Shot 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #2 Wildcat Brief 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Calibrachoa 7-2 3rd

8th: 27th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Guaranteed $1,000,000 P4 starts here..

Those gleefully knocking the sophomore crop may want to remember a crop includes sprinters and turf horses born the same year as the classic runners. Not only are there some serious credentialed one turners out there besides GSW’s J J’s Lucky Train and Travelin Man, but horses like Arch Traveler, Bold Warrior and Justin Phillip will likely garner sprint stake laurels before the season ends, or as soon as this afternoon. Good edition of the former Riva Ridge..

SCR #4 Bold Warrior..

Most Likely: #5 Arch Traveler 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Travelin Man 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 J J’s Lucky Train 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 SCR

9th: 18th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Remember last year when Bill Mott couldn’t buy a win during the winter and early spring/summer and then couldn’t lose for about 6 months? It’s happening again..

Most Likely: #2 Aviate 5-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Strike the Bell 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Gypsy’s Warning 5-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Cherokee Queen 8-1 9th

10th: 110th Manhattan (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

What’s not to like or respect about Gio Ponti?

Most Likely: #4 Gio Ponti 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Al Khali 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Windward Islands 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Straight Story 12-1 6th

11th: 143rd Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD, Super)

This has been a fun Triple Crown season, and a marquis confrontation between the Derby and Preakness winners is more than enough to lend this grand old event the gravitas it deserves. Early wagering from Friday is showing that Shackleford is being shockingly underbet, and looks to go off at a significantly overlaid number. That is enough to tip the scales back in his direction over the deservedly well-backed Animal Kingdom whom I was prepared to place on top. The equation between them is simple enough with Shackleford winging on the front end and Animal Kingdom trying to reel him in late. I’ve added 15-1 Brilliant Speed and 30-1 Monzon behind the top pair in the selections below as much as an example of how to attack the race as anything, as it feels like almost all of the rest of the cast has a chance to gets themselves into paying slots. Horses like Master of Hounds and Nehro, etc., need to be included on your exotic tickets of course, but because of the race’s unique challenges, try to find a bonus mutuel or two to jazz the play..

1 Master of Hounds (Gomez/O’Brien) 10-1: Coolmore import a fashionable tab off honest Derby try; Trip will suit.. 10th
2 Stay Thirsty (Castellano/Pletcher) 20-1: Repole lesser light has placement over surface, plodding style as merits.. 2nd
3 Ruler On Ice (Valdivia/Breen) 20-1: Owner/Trainer perform well at high level, but Roman Ruler feels overmatched.. WON
4 Santiva (Bridgmohan/Kenneally) 15-1: Giant’s Causeway colt part of intriguing trio behind Shack in Derby; Exotics.. 8th
5 Brilliant Speed (Rosario/Albertrani) 15-1: Live Oak’s Dynaformer homebred was moving well late in KY; Using.. 3rd
6 Nehro (Nakatani/Asmussen) 4-1: Another tabbed as clever here after 3rd placing in row at CD; Am still unmoved.. 4th
7 Monzon (Lezcano/Correas) 30-1: TGulch Count Fleet winner hated TAM, needed Peter Pan; Can juice tri/super tix.. 9th
8 Prime Cut (Prado/Howard) 15-1: Howard not type to run for no reason; Has Da’ Tara type credentials, price.. 11th
9 Animal Kingdom (Velazquez/Motion) 2-1: Derby winner has extra 500 yards to pass Shackleford; Few knocks, if any.. 6th
10 Mucho Macho Man (Dominguez/Ritvo) 10-1: Hard-hitter had excuses at PIM, adds Ramon; Minor award perhaps.. 7th
11 Isn’t He Perfect (Maragh/Shivmangal) 30-1: Continues series of overly ambitious spotting; Hard to like.. 12th
12 Shackleford (Castanon/Romans) 9-2: Preakness winner still improving; Leads chase and holds them safe late.. 5th

Best Value: #12 Shackleford 9-2 5th
Next Best: #9 Animal Kingdom 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Brilliant Speed 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Monzon 30-1 9th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 2
7: 1-3
8: 1-5
9: 1-2-5-7
10: 3-4-5
11: 9-12

1x2x2x4x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5
9: 1-2-4-5-6-7
10: 3-4-5
11: 9-12

2x6x3x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)

12th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Sumfun 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Keechi Bullet 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Close to the Vest 15-1 3rd-DH
Super Add: #7 Mitigation 9-2 7th

13th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Paci Di Notte 7-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Molly’s Ship 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Rudy Rudy Rudy 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Russian Ally 8-1 9th

<$50 P4 Play:

10: 3-4-5
11: 1-6-9-12
12: 10-12
13: 3-4-9-11

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (P6, P3,

Pretty tricky start to the P6 sequence with perhaps 7 of the 10 conceivable..

Most Likely: #2 Dodging 5-2 4th
Next Best: #9 Cousin Rich 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Quick Recovery 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Super Add: #3 Hot Rodder 12-1 5th

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

While this is a pretty weak bunch of maidens, there are several stories to be told within it. Foremost sadly is the presence of #8 Sundae’s a Meese, the sister of the wonderful racemare Meese Rocks
who succumbed to laminitis a week ago. Few trainers or owners will be
as lucky to have a horse in their string and stable as giving as Meese
Rocks; #2 Bound to Happen is out of the excellent and largely forgotten New Jersey bred Avie’s Fancy
who counted the Matchmaker and Boiling Springs among her memorable wins
in the early 90’s. She is notable as a dam as well for having produced St. Averill; On a personal note regarding this group, Joe Gioia (Very Un Stable) offers #5 Mostess Hostess as the first foal from his charming Twinkie Zone, a Wild Zone miss that was a delight to be around when she was running out of the Del Carroll barn..

Most Likely: #2 Bound to Happen 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Lucy Stragmore 5-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Silver Mast 20-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Sundae’s a Meese 4-1 3rd

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This is a tremendous betting affair with a can’t-break-through favorite in Wonder Again sib Wonder Beyond,
and a hatfull of the rest possible at fun odds. Be creative and use
everyone you believe has a chance and you may be amply rewarded for your
aggression. I would have put Win the Day on top if not for the presence of the frightful Pezua..

Best Value: #6 Fu Pegs Baby 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Wonder Beyond 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Nykid Time to Jazz 12-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Win the Day 15-1 11th

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Willing to believe that 7yo mare Acquired Cat (3-1 fave) may
need one after 7+ months away. It may be the proper level, but it can’t
be construed as a positive that Galluscio offers her for sale upon
return at half the price she was when last seen..

Most Likely: #6 Ushuaia 5-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #3 Long Gone 10-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Acquired Cat 3-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Flying Sappho 12-1 2nd

9th: 26th Poker (G3), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Courageous Cat 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Right One 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Beau Choix 5-2 4th

10th: 123rd Brooklyn H. (G2), 3+, 12f (Brooklyn-Belmont Double)

Tight field and the typical cat-and-mouse game for riders going the 12 panels. No one would be too much of a shock..

Most Likely: #1 Eldaafer 2-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Drosselmeyer 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Birdrun 7-2 WON ($7.30)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-9
6: 2-3-9
7: 6-9
8: 6
9: 1-2
10: 1-2-4

2x3x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-7-9-10-11
8: 3-6-10
9: 1-2
10: All

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Ended the weekend Sunday with a nice run through the late P4 after
feeling dopey leaving pretty obvious horses out of the tabs and
carryover P6 play. After SCR of Big Polk a Dot in the 6th made Show
Trial a single, $36 quad punt returned a happy $270 with overlaid Vinda
($23.00) boosting the sequence. Hope you did well!

Belmont Week kicks off with a rather fun card Wednesday, and the more I looked the more I thought everything was worth featuring here. Draw of the Belmont Stakes is at 11a and can be seen live streaming: http://www.belmontstakes.com/livestream/

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 War Clan 3-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Senada 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Lady Gracenote 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Much Fanfare 12-1 6th

2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Watch board for hints, especially on the firsters, to start your P4 play. Note much to latch on to here..

Best Value: #7 Fast Grievance 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Desenfrenado 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Stephen’s Revenge 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Cientifico 5-1 6th

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Bahama Bound 9-5 4th
Next Best: #2 Eager Emma 2-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Freud’s Notebook 10-1 2nd

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Alender’s Lakeside Chapel (half sister to Dee Tee/Pompa 2yo colt Toy Cannon) takes a class drop here to try and force 2nd career win. Note that there isn’t much pace on in this..

Most Likely: #1a SCR
Next Best: #5 Lakeside Chapel 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Montessori 6-1 4th

5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Wild News 7-2 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #2 City Broad 5-2 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-6-7
3: 2-5
4: 1/SCR-5
5: 1-2

5x2x2x2 = $40 ($20 for .50)

6th: CLM, F&M, 3+ (P4, P3, DD)

Always wax nostalgic when #4 Shoe Babe shows up in the PP’s. 7yo mare makes her 55th career start in this $7,500 claimer, and was behind Dee Tee ‘matriarch’ Sumwonlovesyou in the Saratoga opener 8/5/07..

Best Value: #8 Economic Tsunami 5-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #1 Sneaky Girl 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Spell Check 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Amply Rewarded 8-1 3rd

7th: Nonsich Bay, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Rose Catherine 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Becky’s Exchange 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Karakorum Elektra 7-2 5th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Mine Over Matter 5-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Al Muhtasib 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #2 Sun Dance Moon 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Regal Warrior 3-1 3rd

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (Super)

Nightcap likely tougher than it looks with top trio of faves obvious, and then a number of quirky first and second time starters including J. Jerkens’ #9 Two Harbors (12-1). By A.P. Indy son Pulpit out of the nice Santa Catalina, she is a half sister of the excellent Golden Missle, who was by A.P. Indy himself. Dam has gotten grass runners, and this one may be better 2nd time postward and moving to the lawn..

Most Likely: #3 Immaculate Cat 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 World Harmony 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Town Flirt 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Two Harbors 12-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-8-10
7: 2-5-8
8: 1-4
9: 3-6-8-9

3x3x2x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)