Classic heroes square off at BEL; Day starts off wet
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Rained heavily overnight in Elmont and the Belmont main is very sloppy at this hour… More storms appear to be in the area with the greatest chance for extra precip coming before noon. It doesn’t appear that the sun will shine and there isn’t any wind, so drying the track out completely by the Belmont’s 6:35pm post may not be possible. Monitor the main track’s progress carefully as the day goes on, because there is a possibility we could have a very heavy, ‘peanut buttery’ main by late this afternoon. Anticipate grass courses may be yielding, but check update HERE by 7:30a…
Visit ATR.com for the Preview Show with Andy Beyer, Jay Privman, Gus Alonso, Nick Tammaro, Steve Haskin and Rick Hammerle. Also, replay in the morning 6-10a ET on Sirius 93 & XM 209… Hope everyone enjoyed the ATR coverage this week and throughout the Triple Crown. Recap Monday from Belmont!
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Day’s first turf route and as I prepare this analysis Friday afternoon, the Belmont grass courses appear to still be giving it up to forwardly placed runners despite Thursday night’s rain. I’m going to approach these lawn routes figuring it will take hot fractions to allow deep closers to succeed today. This particular race features 2 first North American mystery horses from Ribaudo/Keller (#6 Eternal Ruler, 8-1) and KMc/Allen (#8 Marine Officer, 6-1) that are complete unknowns, so watch the board..
Best Value: #1 Lubango 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Batter Up 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Royal Straight 8-1
Super Add: #4 Pretty Boy Freud 5-1 6th
2nd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #4 Crushing 7-2 5th
Next Best: #3 August Osage 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Bold Choice 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Noble Doss 15-1 3rd
3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #13 In Just We Trust 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #10 Forty Prayers 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Easy Gallop 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Belongs to Sheila 15-1 6th
4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)
Top pair are 3yo’s that will likely target King’s Bishop from here..
Most Likely: #5 Ripples n’ Waves 7-2 DNF
Next Best: #7 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Johannesburg Smile 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Mineswept 12-1 3rd
5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Intriguing Empire bred ALW set, and history says the ML means little. #13 (AE) Boat demands attention if drawing in, though the outside offsets some of his potential appeal..
Best Value: #7 Hangover Kid 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Shekomeko Kid 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Carbon County 8-1 12th
Super Add: #5 Mr. Hooker 30-1 6th
<$50 P4 Play:
2: 4
3: 4-3-10-12-13
4: 4-5-7-11
5: 1-5-7-9-11
1x5x4x5 = $100 x .50 = $50
6th: 81st Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD)
$144k C/O, ‘Guaranteed $1,000,000 P6’ starts here..
2010 of this race had a baker’s dozen and produced one of the year’s biggest scores for ATR/DT followers when Guillot’s Champagne d’Oro came through for an $80 score-o. A California shipper is again the focus, but we’ll be lucky to get .80 on Mike Puype’s nearly perfect Turbulent Descent. Backup tickets with the 1 & 4 for the big P6 and other multis aren’t the worst idea since success over this surface is never guaranteed, but it will be a surprise if the Congrats bay doesn’t produce as a single..
Most Likely: #2 Turbulent Descent 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Her Smile 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 It’s Tricky 6-1 WON ($22.00)
7th: 33rd True North H. (G2), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)
Everyone seems to be bowing down to Trappe Shot in this spot, and while I respect him, I don’t think he is nearly the lay-up he is being made out to be..
SCR #4 Rule by Night..
Most Likely: #1e Pompa entry 2-1 2nd/4th
Next Best: #3 Trappe Shot 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #2 Wildcat Brief 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Calibrachoa 7-2 3rd
8th: 27th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
Guaranteed $1,000,000 P4 starts here..
Those gleefully knocking the sophomore crop may want to remember a crop includes sprinters and turf horses born the same year as the classic runners. Not only are there some serious credentialed one turners out there besides GSW’s J J’s Lucky Train and Travelin Man, but horses like Arch Traveler, Bold Warrior and Justin Phillip will likely garner sprint stake laurels before the season ends, or as soon as this afternoon. Good edition of the former Riva Ridge..
SCR #4 Bold Warrior..
Most Likely: #5 Arch Traveler 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Travelin Man 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 J J’s Lucky Train 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 SCR
9th: 18th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Remember last year when Bill Mott couldn’t buy a win during the winter and early spring/summer and then couldn’t lose for about 6 months? It’s happening again..
Most Likely: #2 Aviate 5-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Strike the Bell 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Gypsy’s Warning 5-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Cherokee Queen 8-1 9th
10th: 110th Manhattan (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)
What’s not to like or respect about Gio Ponti?
Most Likely: #4 Gio Ponti 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Al Khali 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Windward Islands 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Straight Story 12-1 6th
11th: 143rd Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD, Super)
This has been a fun Triple Crown season, and a marquis confrontation between the Derby and Preakness winners is more than enough to lend this grand old event the gravitas it deserves. Early wagering from Friday is showing that Shackleford is being shockingly underbet, and looks to go off at a significantly overlaid number. That is enough to tip the scales back in his direction over the deservedly well-backed Animal Kingdom whom I was prepared to place on top. The equation between them is simple enough with Shackleford winging on the front end and Animal Kingdom trying to reel him in late. I’ve added 15-1 Brilliant Speed and 30-1 Monzon behind the top pair in the selections below as much as an example of how to attack the race as anything, as it feels like almost all of the rest of the cast has a chance to gets themselves into paying slots. Horses like Master of Hounds and Nehro, etc., need to be included on your exotic tickets of course, but because of the race’s unique challenges, try to find a bonus mutuel or two to jazz the play..
1 Master of Hounds (Gomez/O’Brien) 10-1: Coolmore import a fashionable tab off honest Derby try; Trip will suit.. 10th
2 Stay Thirsty (Castellano/Pletcher) 20-1: Repole lesser light has placement over surface, plodding style as merits.. 2nd
3 Ruler On Ice (Valdivia/Breen) 20-1: Owner/Trainer perform well at high level, but Roman Ruler feels overmatched.. WON
4 Santiva (Bridgmohan/Kenneally) 15-1: Giant’s Causeway colt part of intriguing trio behind Shack in Derby; Exotics.. 8th
5 Brilliant Speed (Rosario/Albertrani) 15-1: Live Oak’s Dynaformer homebred was moving well late in KY; Using.. 3rd
6 Nehro (Nakatani/Asmussen) 4-1: Another tabbed as clever here after 3rd placing in row at CD; Am still unmoved.. 4th
7 Monzon (Lezcano/Correas) 30-1: TGulch Count Fleet winner hated TAM, needed Peter Pan; Can juice tri/super tix.. 9th
8 Prime Cut (Prado/Howard) 15-1: Howard not type to run for no reason; Has Da’ Tara type credentials, price.. 11th
9 Animal Kingdom (Velazquez/Motion) 2-1: Derby winner has extra 500 yards to pass Shackleford; Few knocks, if any.. 6th
10 Mucho Macho Man (Dominguez/Ritvo) 10-1: Hard-hitter had excuses at PIM, adds Ramon; Minor award perhaps.. 7th
11 Isn’t He Perfect (Maragh/Shivmangal) 30-1: Continues series of overly ambitious spotting; Hard to like.. 12th
12 Shackleford (Castanon/Romans) 9-2: Preakness winner still improving; Leads chase and holds them safe late.. 5th
Best Value: #12 Shackleford 9-2 5th
Next Best: #9 Animal Kingdom 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Brilliant Speed 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Monzon 30-1 9th
<$200 P6 Play:
6: 2
7: 1-3
8: 1-5
9: 1-2-5-7
10: 3-4-5
11: 9-12
1x2x2x4x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 1-5
9: 1-2-4-5-6-7
10: 3-4-5
11: 9-12
2x6x3x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)
12th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)
Best Value: #10 Sumfun 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Keechi Bullet 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Close to the Vest 15-1 3rd-DH
Super Add: #7 Mitigation 9-2 7th
13th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)
Most Likely: #11 Paci Di Notte 7-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Molly’s Ship 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Rudy Rudy Rudy 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Russian Ally 8-1 9th
<$50 P4 Play:
10: 3-4-5
11: 1-6-9-12
12: 10-12
13: 3-4-9-11
3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48