SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Jonathon Sheppard (G1), 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Snap Decision 6-5
Next Best: #3 Song for Someone 5-2
Best Value: #7 Chief Justice 10-11
Exotics Use: #1 Down Royal 9-2

2nd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 O’Trouble 5-1
Next Best: #4 Quick Return 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Winning Drive 6-1

3rd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Backed by Gold 5-2
Next Best: #6 Mommasgottarun 1-1
Exotics Use: #2 Wicked Happy 8-1
Super Add: #4 Keen Dancer 15-1

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Freedom Machine 6-1
Next Best: #5 Kemba 2-1
Exotics Use: #6 I’m Buzzy 4-1
Super Add: #8 Miss Invincible 20-1

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Important looking baby fillies including Mija (Curlin out of Rachel Alexandra’s Rachel Valentina who famously broke her maiden here) and Padma (Godolphin Tapit home bred out of

Most Likely: #5 Mija 7-2
Best Value: #1 Socially Selective 8-1
Next Best: #8 Justifying 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Souper Slews Cash 12-1

6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Emboitte 10-1
Next Best: #8 Mackillop 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Wish Me Home 12-1
Super Add: #3 Seal Beach 5-1

P5 Grid:

2: 2-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
4: 1-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 8 (B), – (C)
6: 1-8 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

3: 6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
4: 1-5 (A), 6 (B), – (C)
5: 1-5-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1-8 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 U Glow Girl 5-2
Best Value: #5 Amazon Barbie 5-1
Next Best: #7 Crypto Mama 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 Risk Free 12-1

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Silken Dollar 3-1
Next Best: #1 U Guys Are No Fun 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Mia Bea Star 3-1
Super Add: #4 Sunset Louise 9-2

9th: NYSS, 3yo, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Dakota Gold 3-5
Next Best: #5 Marinara Sauced 5-1
Best Value: #3 Shinsun 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 Born Dancer 15-1

10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #4 Dixie Cannon 8-1
Next Best: #7 Funwhileitlasted 9-2
Exotics Use: #6 Cafe Fleur 5-2
Super Add: #10 Ocean Air 6-1

P5 Grid:

6: 1-8 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
7: 5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 6-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 8 (A), – (B), 3-4-5 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 6-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x4 = $36 ($18 for .50)
All A’s: 3x3x1x2 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backup (3-4-5 in 9th): $18 (3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27)

Good luck!
Steve

COLONIAL

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Seeking the Pearl, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Carribean Caper 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Fille d’Esprit 8-1 WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #5 Cheetara 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Swayin to and Fro 10-1 5th

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Scanno 9-2 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #4 Kartano 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: ##12 Ansel 5-1 10th
Super Add: #2 The Happy Giant 6-1 4th

6th: Old Nelson, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Market Rumour 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Didia 9-2 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #12 She Can’t Sing 6-1 9th
Super Add: #4 In a Hurry 10-1 3rd

7th: Buckland, 3+, 9f-Inner (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 African Heritage 20-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Eons 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 English Tavern 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 King Vega 12-1 WON ($9.40)

8th: Chesapeake, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #8 Mucho 8-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Beren Late SCR
Exotics Use: #13 Just Might 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Necker Island 9-2 WON-DQ’d to 3rd

9th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #4 Determined Jester 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Tiki Bar 8-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #6 Sun Bee 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Time for an Angel 8-1 8th

P5 Grid:

5: 4-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 8-10-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 6-9 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
8: 8-10/SCR (A), – (B), 9-13 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (9-13 in 8th): 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

6: 8-10-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 6-9 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
8: 8-10/SCR (A), – (B), 9-13 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: (9-13 in 8th): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Deccan Prince 5-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Kbcya Later 4-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #8 Rock Chalk 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Star Attitude 5-1 5th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Conseillante 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Towhead 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Astrilla 5-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Root Cause 4-1 2nd

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Shadolamo 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Big Q 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Cadeau de Paix 4-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Prairie Fire 2-1 WON ($7.50)

4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cost Basis 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Fire Sword 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #6 Ebben 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Swiftsure 9-2 3rd

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Murky looking bunch. Spread race..

Best Value: #6 Libretto 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Sixth Street 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Mrs. Green 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #7 Yamas 8-1 5th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-5 (A), – (B), 7-8 (C)
2: 5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
4: 2-7 (A), 6-8 (B), – (C)
5: 6-8 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (7-8 in 1st): 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/ima…itor/color.gif

P4 Grid:

2: 5-7 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
3: 3-4 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
4: 2-7 (A), 6-8 (B), – (C)
5: 6-8 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A’s: 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backups: 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8 (1-10 in 2nd); 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8 (1-5 in 3rd)

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Upper Case 9-2 7th
Next Best: #10 Firing Bullets 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Interpolate 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Chocolate Gelato 3-1 WON ($6.60)

7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Palace Gossip 8-1 6th ~ Depaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #3 Spungie 2-1 ~ 7th Tough if ready off break
Exotics Use: #8 My Lips Are Sealed 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Out of Sight 4-1 WON ($13.20)

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Sweet Willemina 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Brattle House 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Betsy Blue 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #2 Halo City 12-1 4th

9th: Mahony-L, 3yo, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Big Invasion 1-2 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #1 Cadamosto 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Editorial Comment 8-1 –
Exotics Use: #5 That’s Right 6-1 –

10th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m

Most Likely: #3 Reckless Spirit 8-5 4th
Best Value: #4 F F Rocket 30-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Hatch 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Brazillionaire 4-1 WON ($10.60)

P5 Grid:

6: 4-10 (A), 3-8 (B), – (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 6-8 (B), – (C)
8: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-2 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 3 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x2x1 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x1 =16 x .50 = $8
Backup (4-5 in 10th): 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

7: 3-4 (A), 6-8 (B), – (C)
8: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-2 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 3 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x1 = $16
All A’s: 2x2x2x1 = $8
Backup (4-5 in 10th): 2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Not a tremendous amount of strong pedigree/sibling strength to equate to this group. At attractive 12-1, Baie Longue should improve on stretcout in move to turf..

Best Value: #4 Baie Longue 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 I’m Very Busy 3-1 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #5 Calycanthus 5-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Full Coverage 7-2 7th

2nd: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Several droppers and in and out form make this tricky, but repeat of Mount Athos effort last and three back boss this group. Gaslight (15-1) is better on the main (and note Quick’s excellent T/D numbers) and may be useful exotics booster..

Most Likely: #3 Mount Athos 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Gaslight 15-1 4th
Next Best: #1a Charger 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Cold as Hell 6-1 3rd

3rd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Blazing Star isn’t favored and looks like the one to beat. After her though, everyone looks the same..

Most Likely: #3 Blazing Star 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Constitutional Rage 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Cadencia SCER
Exotics Use: #1 No Payne 8-1 2nd

4th: Saratoga Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Very strong quintet with 6f winners Gulfport & Damon’s Mound at the top and Super Chow a lurking speed presence up from Florida. Not against anyone, but can’t help but be rooting for Michelle Lovell in an opportunity to further raise her growing reputation with Damon’s Mound..

Most Likely: #2 Damon’s Mound 7-5 WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #4 Gulfport 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Super Chow 8-1 3rd

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Finger Lakes invader Tosconova Beauty is fastest coming in, but as noted by Paul Matties with us on Loose on the Lead Sunday, those runners have struggled over this deep, tiring Spa strip..

Most Likely: #2 Sweet Mystery 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Tosconova Beauty 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Captainsdaughter 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Early Edition 5-1 4th

P5 Grid:

1: 3-4 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
2: 3 (A), – (B), 1-7-8 (C)
3: 3 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x1x2x5 = $40 ($20 for .50)
All A’s: 2x1x1x2x3 = $12 ($6 for .50)
.50 Backups: $18 (1-7-8 in 2nd); $12 (2-7 in 3rd); $3 (1 in 4th)

P4 Grid:

2: 3 (A), 1-8 (B), 7 (C)
3: 3 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x2x5 = $30 ($15 for .50)
All A’s: 1x1x2x3 = $6 ($3 for .50)
.50 Backups: $3 (7 in 2nd); $6 (2-7 in 3rd); $1.50 (1 in 4th)

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Golden Hornet (out of More Than Ready mare) is 3rd choice and Rivelli very savvy with this type..

Best Value: #5 Golden Hornet 4-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Neuro 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Two Down 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Sherriff Bianco SCR

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

A couple here seem slightly more likely with only the Lukas railrunner having had experience….

Most Likely: #5 Skellig 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Marty’s Magic 15-1 8th
Next Best: #6 General Jim 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Bourbon Bash 4-1 WON ($10.00)

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

If it’s not Portfolio Company, it could be any of about 7 others..

Most Likely: #1 Portfolio Company 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Capone 20-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Midnight Worker 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Ohtwoohthreefive 12-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

4: 2-4 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
6: 3-5 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
8: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x5x1 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (1 on 4th); $18 (2-7 in 6th)

P4 Grid:

5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
6: 3-5 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
8: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x5x1 = $50 ($25 for .50)
All A’s: 3x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backups: $9 (2-7 in 6th)

9th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

$750k Repole/Viola firster from Pletcher working like a horse that will fire, but draws the less-than-ideal rial. 2nd timer For Good is a full to Good Magic for Bob Edwards & Chad and was solid upon introduction..

Most Likely: #4 For Good 7-2 6th
Next Best: #1 (POE) Unlimitedpotential 3-1 2nd/WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #10 Southern Flag 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Happy Bob 9-2 5th

10th: Fourstardave (G1), 3+, 1m-Inner (DD)

The late Paul Pompa-bred Regal Glory is a special mare and has most of the edge in this nice group. Ortiz does need to be careful about leaving her with too much to do. as much as we love Lee Einsidler and root for him, this isn’t Casa’s best trip. As Nick Tammaro mentioned yesterday on ATR, Get Smokin may forget to stop. Masen is poised on pattern to run a career best here. And note that Front Run the Fed has maintained his Brown barn form for Caramori..

Most Likely: #3 Regal Glory 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Masen 2-1 3rd

11th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #7 GREG’S HONOR 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Strike Price 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Smart Joker 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Calloway Peak 8-1 WON ($14.20)

P5 Grid:

7: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
8: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 3-4 (A), – (B), 1-2-5 (C)
11: 7-8 (A), – (B), 2-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x2x2 =$60 ($30 for .50)
All A’s: 3x1x3x2x2 = $36 ($18 for .50)
.50 Backups: $27 (1-2-5 in 10th); $18 (2-9 in 11th)

P4 Grid:

8: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-4-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 3-4 (A), – (B), 1-2-5 (C)
11: 7-8 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x4 =$24 ($12 for .50)
All A’s: 1x3x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
.50 Backups: $9 (1-2-5 in 10th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Trickier than it should be. Ny Traffic hardly ‘has to win’. My Boy Tate is the one that can sit behind a pace that could get very hot..

Most Likely: #4 My Boy Tate 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Ny Traffic 6-5 4th
Best Value: #1 Saint Selby 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Wudda U Think Now 7-2 WON ($15.40)

4th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (P3, DD)

Yikes. A dozen line up here and there’s no guarantee any of them can win..

Best Value: #4 Lollygag 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Queen of Lies 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Latest Edition 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Oak Loves a Fight 9-2 3rd

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

$124k P6 C/O starts here..

Very little speed involved here..

Most Likely: #4 Khafre 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 I Am the Law 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Southern Passage 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Commander Compton 8-1 6th

6th: Union Avenue-NY, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Snicket 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Chasing Cara 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Mashnee Girl 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Secret Love 5-2 3rd

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Sure feels like there’s pace here, but you know how that often turns out..

Most Likely: #3 Gal in a Rush 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Linda’s Gift 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Bahamian Club 5-1 WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Spicer 5-1 6th

8th: Evan Shipman-NY, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Really good gathering, but Morey off the claim a scary proposition and Tiergan runs well here..

Most Likely: #5 Tiergan 5-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Bankit 9-5 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Sea Foam 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Three Jokers 6-1 5th

9th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T/27′ (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sarah’s Splendor 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Coolcatsnkittens 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Maddie’s Surprise 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Eli Dancer 7-2 2nd

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner

If you made it here in the P-X’s, best of luck. More than this field is eligible for laurels..

Most Likely: #6 Classic Lynne 6-1 10th
Best Value: #4 Sinfully Sweet 10-1 9th
Next Best: #11 She’s a Mia 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Whatlovelookslike 9-2 2nd

P6 Grid:

5: 3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1-7 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
7: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
9: 3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 8-11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x1x2x4 = $192
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x2x2 = $48

P5 Grid:

6: 1-7 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
7: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
9: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 8-11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 8-11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18