Get the feeling I hit a bit of what baseball types call a ‘dead arm’ Wednesday-Friday, enduring some mediocre-at-best handicapping and ho-hum wagering. The P6 carryover try for Friday was inept as I ended up putting in a $240 ticket that emphasized in the wrong places and could only manage 3 winners. That said, I’m not sure I would have gotten to nightcap victor Ginger J without using a half dozen runners at least.

The week has been odd in that I have been able to identify plenty of winners daily, but haven’t seen enough prices tied together to boost the bankroll. As a result, after negligible wins/losses Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, I trimmed more than $500 off the wad Friday. Am up about $1,500 for the stand as we hit the halfway point Saturday, and expect to yet find the big P4’s that usually sustain the Spa season for me. Sword Dancer card and Arlington Million slate offer plenty of opportunities today, and I hope everyone has been doing OK and are ready for yet another great weekend of racing and action!

Steve Crist, Jay Privman and Keeneland Library’s G. D. Hieronymus join Seth Merrow and I this morning on “Loose on the Lead”, and you can still catch Friday’s ATR Weekend Preview with Marcus Hersch, Nick Tammaro, Ed DeRosa, Rick Hammerle and Joe McMahon on SiriusXM or at www.stevebyk.com.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

To utilize one of Andy Serling’s maxims, “the time to have Pico Dinero was last time”, and we all did on opening day at 12-1. Turf course now playing honestly, and you need to find all the best of the pace options. Top pair (BEL, 7/14) and bottom pair (DEL, 7/19) below exit respective races, and I’ll try to hook them all up in this fun opener..

Most Likely: #1 Monastir 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Milllenium Jet 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Dugan 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Grande Gayego 20-1 10th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Little Dale SCR’D was a heart-breaking disappointment 8 days ago when needed for a juicy P4 hit. The Prize Fighter has been shopping for a spot since the meet started, and as it happens, late owner Carl Lizza is being feted this afternoon..

Most Likely: #3 The Prize Fighter 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #5 Tug of War 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Smokem’s Charm 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Think I’m Hooked 8-1 4th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #3 Gallant Fields 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Quality Council 9-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #1e Darley entry 2-1 2nd/5th

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3)

Tough group upon which to get a handle..

Best Value: #6 Scotchirish 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Dallaglio 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Ry Bread 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Miami Ghost 3-1 8th

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting maiden affair with a pedigreed player from Pletcher in Unbridled Ocean, a colt out of the outstanding Ocean Drive who Todd happened to train for M/M Baskin..

Most Likely: #6 Imagining 3-1: Solid debut; Extra 200 yards should help.. 2nd
Best Value: #8 Simbamangu 8-1: ‘Now horse’ 3 weeks ago, a better tab today.. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Unbridled Ocean 4-1: $875k new; Dam a Ballston Spa heroine.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Corporate Jungle 9-2: Brown firing on all cylinders after blah start.. WON ($7.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-8
3: 2-3
4: 1-4-6-7-8-9
5: 3-4-6-8

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $75

$1 Pick 4 (1/3-2/5-1-4) Paid: $86.85

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Scant tangibles available in this baby heat. Note Pletcher (#4 How Do I Win) just 1 for last 14 adding hood to 2yo’s in MSW’s (2010-11)..

Best Value: #7 Burned Bridges 8-1: KMc debuts half to Jump Start.. 7th
Next Best: #2 Clip the Coupons 4-1: Half to MSP Calder bull Peace at Dawn.. WON ($15.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Love to Run 8-1: $190k Pulpit son working well.. 3rd
Super Add: #4 How Do I Win 3-1: See above.. 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Super tricky group given the assignment and abundance of firsters. Happy this isn’t in the late P4..

Best Value: #10 Dullahan 6-1: Turf stretch may work for Mine That Bird brother.. 2nd
Next Best: #8 Patrice Merion 3-1: Pletcher sends Zayat miss by EngChan out v. boys.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Atigun 15-1: McPeek hits boards turf routing with first time starters.. 9th
Super Add: #1 Tiz Sardonic Joe 10-1: Half to Joes Blazing Aaron, so lawn route should suit.. WON ($20.00)

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously competitive with a number of horses that really have a nose for the wire..

Best Value: #9 Bergerac 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Unaccountable 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Break Up the Game 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Xodo 8-1 5th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Difficult P4 sequence gets more challenging with this turf dash scrambler..

Most Likely: #3 Power Blast 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Decision Point 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Jupiter Trio 5-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Out of Your Mind 30-1 9th

10th: 37th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (DD, Super)

Considering the Arlington Million is being run an hour later, this edition came up very nice..

Most Likely: #8 Winchester 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #1 Drosselmeyer 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Teaks North 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Boisterous 4-1 5th

11th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Rush to Riches 5-1 11th
Best Value: #4 El Cuandro 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Calgary Enforcer 3-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Recipe 4-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6-9
9: 3-6-10
10: 1-5-7-8
11: 4-7-12

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

FYI, Philly shipper #8 Quiet All American (5-1) has been announced as a gelding..

Most Likely: #6 Power King 3-1
Best Value: #3 River City Reel 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Successful Score 5-2
Super Add: #2 Cave’s Valley 7-2

2nd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tough hard knockers with droppers, returnees, stretchouts, et al..

Most Likely: #7 Almoradi 7-2: The dropper..
Best Value: #1 (POE) The Vin Man 6-1: The returnee..
Exotics Use: #5 Glacier Bay 2-1: The horse to beat..
Super Add: #4 Ever a Friend 5-1: The stretch-out..

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Top three all out of stake-winning dams..

Most Likely: #1 Hard Mystery 2-1
Next Best: #4 Miss Caterina 8-5
Exotics Use: #5 Smokin’ Alice 3-1

4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$80k P6 C/O starts here..

Top tab Inner Truth a sneaky wire threat under Kent who is making the most of his few mounts here..

Best Value: #1 Inner Truth 12-1
Next Best: #3 Senora Dubai 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Hookshot 5-2
Super Add: #5 Stray Bullet 4-1

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Starsilhouette 4-1
Next Best: #9 Settling Seas 3-1
Best Value: #7 Ba Ba’s Bunch 8-1
Super Add: #4 Miss Stilleto 5-2

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-7
3: 1-4-5
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 1-4-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th:MSW, 3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Gaudy fig for Soultown in debut tough to get past here. Top one from that race — Brueggemann LA-bred Southern Dude (101 Beyer) — yet to run back, though one winner has exited the event. Likely legit in Margo’s hands..

Most Likely: #3 Soultown 2-1
Next Best: #1 Show Me the Way 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Rothko 4-1
Super Add: #4 Perfect Slam 8-1

7th: 27th Hall of Fame (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As the Sword Dancer came up a solid alternative for those not of Arlington Million quality, this standard is a solid assembly of lesser light soph talent for those not up to the Secretariat. Outside quartet have lots of pace interest making it likely that the inside trio get to them in the late stages. (And note that the turf courses are finally playing completely fair after being speed-friendly the first third of the stand)..

Best Value: #2 Rustler Hustler 8-1
Next Best: #3 Crimson China 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Humble and Hungry 5-1
Super Add: #7 Street Game 8-5

8th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Diane Balsalmo goes to the well a 3rd time (!) here with the indefatiguable System Restore. Can Gary Gullo snap a losing streak for 90+ starts with grass runners? VERY difficult turf dash..

Best Value: #8 Saints Alive 10-1
Next Best: #10 Mitigation 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Coronation Day 7-2
Super Add: #5 Count Catamount 8-1

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Debuting Roca Del Norte, by good turf sire Dehere, (remember Argentine Talisman?)..

Most Likely: #9 English Ivy 5-2
Best Value: #7 Lemme 8-1
Next Best: #5 Hoopskirt 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 Roca Del Norte 12-1
Super Add: 10 Another Please 5-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1
5: 1-4-7-9
6: 3
7: 2-3-5-7
8: 8
9: 5-7-9

1x4x1x4x1x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 2-3-5-6-7
8: 4-8-10
9: 1-3-5-7-9

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Mrs. Phipps, F&M-4+, 16.5f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Opera Heroine 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #3 Lonesome Nun 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Upper Gulch 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Well Fashioned 4-1 2nd

2nd: CLM, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cinder Cone 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Summer Share 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Most Happy Fella 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #2 Awesome Review 7-2 3rd

3rd: CLM, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Sharp Tongue Lady 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Henny’s Hurricane 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Indian Tale 5-2 WON ($7.20)

4th: OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Chess match of a race. All seem capable and that’s probably a good approach in the P4..

Most Likely: #2 Hillswick 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Mannington 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Law Enforcement 6-1 2nd

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Langsyne 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Bellamy Roadster 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Lady Gold 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Bourbonstreetgirl 8-1 WON ($21.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4-5
3: 1
4: ALL
5: 3-4-6-7

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Golden Tornado 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Won O Won 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Casanova Giant 3-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Forty Tears 12-1 4th

7th: Lucy Scrivner, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Doing Great 5-2 DNF
Next Best: #6 Cascadilla Falls 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Best Value: #8 Tale Untold 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Sunlight Sonata 7-2 3rd

8th: NY Stallion Stakes, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Hessonite 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #6 Lady On the Run 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Freud’s Honor 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Darren’s Dilemma 7-2 7th

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Splendiferous 5-1 WON ($12.20)
Best Value: #2 Knock Rock 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Chanttoomuch 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Speightscity 4-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Midnite Silver 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Cookram Rock 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Leadwithyourchin 7-2 —
Super Add: #2 Turfiste 20-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-6-8
8: 5-6-7
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 6-7-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$232k Double Carryover available to kick off Week 4 of the stand as quirky Monday winners scuttled all sextet punts and many smaller sequence multis as well…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Brown slips Silver Timber into softest spot he’s seen in ages. Can understand those playing against, but even at 8, he should still be able to handle these if close to best..

Most Likely: #5 Silver Timber 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Strong Impact 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Hot Money 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Pegasus Tommy D. 6-1 6th

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Curious and weak-looking group..

Best Value: #3 Mayville 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 I’d Lie 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Trashi Diva 4-1 4th

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 D’ Bulldog 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tackle 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 War Ballad 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Black Diablo 6-1 3rd

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Vexor 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #7 Raconteur 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seeker 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Elusive Story 4-1 2nd

5th: Waya, F&M-3+, 12f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$232k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Snow Top Mountain 5-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Dyani 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Emerald Beach 6-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #5 Gold d’Oro 8-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-6-7-8
3: 5-6-7-8
4: 2-5-7
5: 2-4-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Need an Angel 4-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #9 Fortheloveof Anna 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 SCR

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3 , DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cosmic King 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Storm Galileo 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 The Man Uptown 9-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Ahgogo 8-1 4th

8th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dawly 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #6 Tap Attack 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Goodtimehadbyall 7-2 3rd

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (DD, Super)

Balanced and high quality event..

Most Likely: #5 Colonialism 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #7 Ducduc 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Distant Sky 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 En Fuego 9-2 2nd

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Turn Up the Music 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Cincinnati Kid 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 What’s the Record 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Hershel 4-1 9th

@$150 P6 Play:

5: 2
6: 3-9
7: 5-9
8: ALL
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-6

1x2x2x5x1x4 = 80 x $2 = $160

<$75 P4 Play:

Let’s swing for fences by trying to get a single of Colonialism home..

7: 1-2-3-5-6-9
8: ALL
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-4-6

6x5x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$.50 P4 (3-3-5-4) Paid $93.25

Rain may not have fallen Sunday at Saratoga, but a few happy tears were generated when Allen Iwinski earned his first G1 win as a trainer in the Vanderbilt with Sean Avery. The Saratoga winner’s circle is almost always the ‘happiest place on earth’ to begin with, but given the Midatlantic conditioner’s exit from the sport two years ago for a bout with life-threatening hepatitis and the travails of Sean Avery himself, it was a particularly joyous scene.

In addition to the individual accomplishment, Iwinski’s success ended a quartet of victories by lesser known horsemen in the Spa standards over the weekend, with Mike Puype, Jimmy Bond and Stan Hough finding the end zone in the prior three major events. In terms of sending a message of hope for the ‘rank and file’ training community that doesn’t have 200-300 horses in their alleged care, the weekend could not be a more welcome or heartening. The 4 horsemen have combined in their collective careers for nearly 5,200 wins and earnings of over $116,000,000, and prove that a good trainer can get a good horse to the highest level. If more were given a chance to do likewise, they would.

For wagering purposes, Sean Avery’s win was delightful as well, as his $36.20 tote and $113 exacta with .70 Trappe Shot made the challenging afternoon bountiful. As suggested for approaching Sunday’s racing, you needed to adjust your thinking to the conditions, and even novice players had to see that speed was nearly unstoppable on the Spa main all day. With that in mind, Sean Avery at 17-1 was a glaring opportunity with his Longfellow win at Monmouth as fast as anything anyone in the good field had in the PP’s. He outlasted Trappe Shot to the wire, and provided handsome returns for confidence in his authenticity.

Leaving show pony Calibrachoa off the tri play cost me that exotic punt ($860.00), but the positive imprint of another individual horse on an otherwise marginal day of handicapping was made. I wasn’t close on the multis throughout the afternoon, but Victory Island produced an $83.25 triple with Flea Flicker and Notesfromabroad in the 2nd that covered some action until the generous $52 Tar Heel Mom-Beat the Blues-Champagne d’Oro troika in the Test. The one that I’d really like to have back Sunday was Gary Gullo’s Funky Munky Mama in the 7th at 14-1.. Hope you did well. Nearly a $70k carryover Monday!

TURF: 1st race (stake) remains ON the turf; All others (4th, 7th, 8th, 10th) are OFF the turf..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Gleaming-R, 3yo, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sky Blazer 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Eternal Ruler 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Seal Cove 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #8 Witor 10-1 5th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Saratoga Snacks 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1e Flying Zee entry 7-5 3rd/5th
Exotics Use: #5 Bay Park Boy 5-2 WON ($5.20)

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mr. Haywood 2-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Stinking Creek 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Next Page 7-2 4th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Jagati 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #6 Anonymous Donor 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Belvoir 12-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Turkish 8-1 8th

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Albertrani entry 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Empress of Gold 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 American Angel 8-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3
3: ALL
4: 1-6-7-9
5: 1-4-6

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1a Toque 8-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #7 Sure Success 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Economic Swoon 3-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Dance Floor Maniac 5-1 4th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Backslash 5-2 7th
Next Best: #12 Demure Halo 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2b Keep It a Secret 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Annie’s Melody 20-1 9th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Important to see what the SCR’s do here..

Most Likely: #4 Lights Out Lisa 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Catchapenny K 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Myrtle’s Gray 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #14 Let’s Shoot Pool 7-2 5th

SCR ADD: #7 Guyana Princess 15-1

9th: OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Day of Destiny 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Litigation Risk 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Lou Brissie 4-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 3+, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #14 Cure 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Lil O’s Expression 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #15 Jimanator 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Red Leader 8-1 WON ($15.60)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-6
6: 1-7
7: 13
8: 4
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-9-14-15

3x2x1x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 12-13
8: 4-5-7-8-14
9: 3-7-9
10: 1-3-9-14-15

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75