Nice couple of days to start Alabama Week, enjoying a good Wednesday ahead of a great Thursday. P6 try missed just hard-hitting Chernobyl’s Hero in the turf dash 8th, where I tried to slip Romans’ fave Free Brave through as a single. Conso tick produced nice $1,362 return at day’s end, a swell coda to earlier ‘Best Value’ success with $30.40 Sheppard jumper Parker’s Project ($45.50 EXA) and $31.80 Loyal Shadow ($83.25 EXA). Loyal Shadow’s win, authored in part by bug boy Ortiz’ superb ride, was a particular delight given the connections and Dee Tee Stable’s involvement with her 2yo half brother My Pal of Pals (City Zip).

It was a fun Saratoga day from start to finish with Jacinto Vasquez and Charlie Hayward for extended visits on ATR, followed by a boffo day at the windows and dinner at Pennell’s with the Sciacca Family. Hope everyone did well! $69k carryover at Spa and Dee Tee’s enigmatic Ausable Chasm (#10; 30-1) in today’s 9th with Shaun Bridgmohan! ($80k P6 C/O at Del Mar tonight too.)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Party of Interest 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 St. Pancras 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Illegally Blond 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Honey Talk 7-2 4th

2nd: Proud Spell, 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 All for Thee 9-5 5th
Best Value: #6 Japanese Garden 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Love and Pride 2-1 WON ($5.80)

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Cinco de Mayo Mio 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Honest Gold 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Taconic Victory 5-2 5th

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

8-5 fave Overseas Market is being dangled by Violette/Klarman, and has been previously discussed, these types win easy as often as straggle home badly beaten. Respect given horseman involved, but hardly one to fear..

Most Likely: #6 Overseas Market 8-5 8th
Next Best: #8 Moshe Diane 7-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Illgiveyouwhattever 12-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Soldierette 12-1 5th

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$69k C/O starts here..

Best Value: #1 A New York Phillie 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Ready for Autumn 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Song for Siena 3-1 4th
Super Add: #12 Sunny Smiles 8-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-6
3: 4
4: 1-3-6-8
5: 1-7-8-9-10-12

3x1x4x6 = $72 ($36 at .50)

6th: CLM, 3yo-F, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Long and Lean 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Mayday Maria 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Rose’s Turn 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #6 Fortheloveof Anna 6-1 2nd

7th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 The Funky Express 10-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #5 Karma Police 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Ripley’s Gold 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Flip the Switch 4-1 DNF

8th: 32nd Yaddo-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Even with 2-1 Gitchee Goomie, this is a fun betting race..

Most Likely: #4 Gitchee Goomie 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #7 Rogue’s Jewel 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Exclusive Scheme 8-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Centrina 15-1 5th

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Happy to have Dee Tee’s Ausable Chasm back in action here, but she certainly seems to have work cut out for herself from the #10 hole and against a good group. She provided the thrill of a lifetime for many Stable partners at Saratoga last August, and has come back around to do well after going astray post-Spa ’10. Turf was always in the plan for her given damsire Comet Shine, so today provides a read on that as well. She’ll be a huge price today and I’ll include her as an exotics booster. Thanks to the partners, Gary, Paul and their crew, and safe trip to ‘Sable and Shaun Bridgmohan!

Most Likely: #8 Always a Party 5-2 9th
Best Value: #3 Bullet Baby 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Jazz Life 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Ausable Chasm 30-1 7th

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Best Value: #8 Queen for Life 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Town Flirt 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Lemons to Lemonade 7-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Rajadesaminaux 5-1 5th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-9
6: 5-8
7: 3-5
8: 1-4-7
9: 8
10: 2-3-7-8

2x2x2x3x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-7
8: 1-4-7
9: 3-8
10: 1-2-3-5-6-7-8-10

3x3x2x8 = 144 x .50 = $72

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2L, 4+, 19f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Late SCR
Next Best: #4 Port Morseby 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Parker’s Project 10-1 WON ($30.40)
Super Add: #5 Brave Prospect 12-1 DNF

2nd: Walsh Novice, 4+, 19f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 All Together 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1e Sheppard entry 4-1 WON ($6.30)/4th
Best Value: #2 Here Comes Art 8-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Demonstrative 7-2 2nd

3rd: CLMN/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Settle for Medal 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Cooper River 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Gospel Lesson 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Launch N Relaunch 4-1 2nd

4th: CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Stud Muffin 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Coljak 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 J L Bernstein 7-2 WON ($8.50)
Super Add: #1 Sheraguska 6-1 4th

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$100k Guaranteed P6 starts here..

Maddeningly competitive group including 15-1 overlay Loyal Shadow who is the 4yo half-sister of the City Zip colt My Pal of Pals that Dee Tee shares with their breeder Dr. Paul Giacopelli..

Most Likely: #8 Resoundingly 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Loyal Shadow 15-1 WON ($31.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Ouchy Night 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Royal Order 15-1 4th

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Tricky anchor to early quad given status of free-falling fave Papa Bear (5-2) and Hushion’s gaudy 2nd/break stat (46%; $2.74)..

Best Value: #8 No Questions 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 My Man Marty 7-2 WON ($8.10)
Exotics Use: #5 Papa Bear 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Thisonesforruthie 6-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

3: 3-7
4: 3-4-5
5: 2-6-7-8-9
6: 1-5-8

2x3x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Red Leader 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Jimanator 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Show Trial 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Hurricane Heat 12-1 6th

8th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Free Brave 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Sumfun 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Tahoe Warrior 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Sly 6-1 5th

9th: 32nd West Point-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Lubash 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Compliance Officer 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Ichabad Crane 3-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Pocket Cowboys 6-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #6 Holy Spice 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Singmeasong 3-1 -th
Exotics Use: #3 Rennina 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Simsational 7-2 WON ($8.90)

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 7-8-9
6: 1-8
7: 8-12
8: 8
9: 1-5
10: 3-4-6-9

3x2x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (9/1/1,2,4,7,12/2/1/9) Paid $1,362.00 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8-10-12
8: 5-6-8
9: 1-5-8-10
10: 3-4-6-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Wet Monday was a tale of two halves at Saratoga, as first five of the day were largely formful ahead of surprises that generated a $38k P6 carry into Wednesday. Early P4 and a solid $82.75 triple in the 5th keyed by Spina made it a decent afternoon before giving some back on the late quad and in the feature. The Special was annexed by Michael Matz with Union Rags who won off by himself as the field spread out all the way down the stretch. That was the best example of what regularly occurs on sloppy track days as virtually every winner from the 5th-9th, as the ongoing rain made the track as sea of slop, took control of their heat early and wired. Fields in races like Monday’s get strung out as some runners spin their wheels and other hate the splosh. Wednesday sequence features 6 maiden events, and we’ll have to wait and see about the 5 events scheduled for the lawn…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Malibu Artiste 9-2 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #9 Does It Every Time 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Iberian Gate 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Margaret Smile 6-1 2nd

2nd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

If Curatolo can break sharp from the tricky post with Power King, he has a chance to find himself alone on the lead..

Best Value: #1 Power King 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Mad for Smarty 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 After Shock 7-2 6th
Super Add: #7 Fudge the Books 4-1 5th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

Not a lot to go on here, but Hennig and Dattt seem to annually produce a juvenile winner at a square price and this Injun Chuck has the recipe..

Best Value: #5 Dattts Happy 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Rockin Boogie 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Voodoo Daddy 4-1 WON ($7.40)

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Sortilege 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #6 Rockport Lover 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #5 Honey Mou 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Dixieland Cowgirl 8-1 4th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Patrioticandproud 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Grand Encounter 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Reserved Quality 7-2 WON ($6.20)

P4 Play:

2: 1-2-8
3: 3-5
4: 5-6-8
5: 3-4-5-6

3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $35

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Doublespeak 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Chardsey 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Raffie’s Choice 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Imaspeedyguy 8-1 3rd

7th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Readthebyline 5-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Goodtime Boy 9-2 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #7 Juniors Tribute 12-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Pure Grit 4-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1a Keep It a Secret 6-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 Cap the Thunder 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #13 Money Magnet 12-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Viv’s Tiara 30-1 3rd

9th: 8th Troy, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Just six but interestingly matched; Expect this will stay on the turf..

Most Likely: #6 Bridgetown 1-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 Pachito the Che 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Yield Bogey 9-2 5th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Pure Home Brew 4-1 WON-Via DQ ($7.10)
Best Value: #6 Solid d’Oro 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Mr. Starr’s Report 5-2 —
Super Add: #2 Getinitalltogether 6-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 4-6
6: 5-7
7: 3-6
8: 1
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 5-6-10

2x2x2x1x4x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (3/7,11,12,13,14,15,16/3/1,4,5,6,7,11,12/6,7/10) Paid $15.60 x 2 = $31.20 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-7
8: 1-3
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 2-5-6-7-8-10

3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/1,4,5,6,7,11,12/6,7/10) Paid $38.62

Long-promised rain finally arrived Sunday evening and has steadily come down throughout the night. Expecting to be off the turf (3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th) and at least sloppy to start the day. Many scratches anticipated, so I’ll thumbnail the card for now and see about the turf races after ATR (12p)…

P6 carryovers at Spa and Del Mar were highly lucrative Sunday as New York sextet brought back $142k to 2 patrons while just one on-track punter took down the Cali jackpot for $756k on a $2,688 ticket. Winners/contenders at Saratoga were generally identifiable Sunday, but the hits that came were modest and it felt like another ‘treading water’ kind of afternoon. Hope you did well.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/HCP, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Speight of Hand 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Caixa Electronica 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Starforaday 7-2 4th

2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This is a very competitive group for $35k maidens. And several here are bred through the eyes for off going..

Most Likely: #2 My Piano Man 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Mr. Haywood 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Big City Deputy 5-2 WON ($4.80)

3rd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2b W. W.’s Lady’s Man 2nd
Next Best: #12 My Golden Opinion 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Game Token WON ($11.00)

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Miss Vindictive WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #3 Poppy Day 4th
Exotics Use: #10 High Strider 7th
Super Add: #9 Sister Berta 5th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Devilish Silver 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Spina 8-5 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Kissa Melissa 4-1 DNF
Super Add: #8 Judicial Leader 10-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4-5
3: 2-6-12
4: 1-3-10
5: 3-5-6-8

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 P4 (1,5,6/6/1,4,6,7,11,12/1,3) Paid $114.40

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Late SCR
Next Best: #5 Roderick 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Pawnee Red 4th
Super Add: #2 Bail Out the Cat 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Indian Tale 2nd
Next Best: #11 Shared Heart 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Heavenly Landing 4th
Super Add: #13 Victoria Lynn 8th

8th: 106th Saratoga Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f (DD)

May be reckless, but I’ll go against Pletcher’s Stat (7-5) within the race and save with him in the multis..

Most Likely: #6 Trinniberg 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Banner Bill 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Indian Evening 5-1 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super)

Best Value: #13 Chive Blossom 7th
Next Best: #3 My Fast One 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Late SCR
Super Add: #4 Slamming WON ($9.30)

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4/SCR-5
7: 5-9-11
8: 2-3-4-6
9: 3-4–7/SCR-13

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Threat of heavy weather this afternoon (Saratoga Weather Underground forecast) for carryover sequence of $76.5k precipitated Saturday by $134.00 Frank Martin nightcap shocker Ess Shape. The quirky maiden-laden slate was a bit of a roller coaster ride all afternoon actually, with plenty of opportunities to score with even the most random ideas.

Was able to cover the quad expense in the chalky early P4 ($86 back on $72 play), but got 10-1 in the triple utilizing the inverted key approach. As has been broached recently, the play takes logical players — here Imaging (2-1), Corporate Jungle (5-2), Unbridled Ocean (8-1) — in the top slots over prices — Simbamangu (10-1), Santo Gato (20-1), Clear Note (28-1). The 3x2x3 wager was $18, and when Corporate Jungle, Imagining & Santo Gato came under the wire, the $1 punt returned $176. I didn’t get a bet in, but a similar approach in the 8th had the potential to bring in $574 with Karakorum Legend (9-2), Unaccountable (7-2) & Bergerac (21-1)! As I’ve talked and written about, I’m finding this wager intriguing, and have now hit 4-5 for good money. The Spa turf races seem like the perfect place to play with this concept.

Overall it was a good day with another couple of modest hits, and I hope everyone did well and enjoyed Saratoga, Arlington, Del Mar or whatever else you were watching! Del Mar has a $140k+ carryover themselves today, and the weather there is certainly going to be less volatile than here!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Brilliant Future 2-1
Best Value: #3 Dreamingly 9-2
Exotics Use: #7 Ostensibly 6-1
Super Add: #8 Storm Palm 6-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Bargain Blitz 8-1
Next Best: #5 Wait Til Dawn 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 Isra 3-1
Super Add: #3 Remarkable Moon 10-1

3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Lender’s Way 3-1
Best Value: #5 Proud and Charming 5-1
Next Best: #2 Wildcat’s Smile 5-2
Exotics Use: #1e Broman entry 7-2

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Grand Strategy 3-1
Next Best: #5 Trulee Scrappin’ 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Won Fast Bullet 5-2
Super Add: #1 Whateverittakes 10-1

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$76k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #3 Carson Bandit 6-1
Next Best: #6 Strolldownbroadway 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Diceman 4-1
Super Add: #9 Rudy Rudy Rudy 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-8
3: 2-5-8
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 3-6-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Awesome Arceno 5-1
Next Best: #5 Pistols at Dawn 8-5
Exotics Use: #4 Skinny Peter 6-1

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Delightful Magic 5-2
Next Best: #1 Stopshoppingmaria 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Book Review 6-1
Super Add: #8 Terralba 12-1

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Glory in Motion 9-2
Next Best: #7 Australis Princess 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Lemon Tiger 4-1
Super Add: #1 Nurse Dolce 8-1

9th: 95th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 My Miss Aurelia 6-5
Next Best: #4 Millionreasonswhy 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 New Wave 10-1

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 City Scamper 10-1
Best Value: #9 Drinksonthehouse 3-1
Next Best: #10 Seattle Dynasty 8-1
Super Add: #2 Bella Silver 12-1

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-6
6: 4-5-6
7: 1-4-7-8
8: 4
9: 4-5
10: 3-9

2x3x4x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-7-8
8: 3-4-7
9: 1-4-5
10: 2-3-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve