BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Flat Leaver 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Saltine Warrior 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Bajan Summer 7-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Bob and Jim 12-1 5th

5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Two Blue Hens 9-5 4th
Next Best: #2 Bounty Pink 8-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #3 Iratinelexburance 5-1 2nd

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Persnickity 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Sunrise Kitty 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Talmadge Hill 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Chelsea Road 9-5 2nd

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Don Tito 5-2 8th
Next Best: #5 Hackleton 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Head Heart Hoof 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Coolusive 4-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nuffsaif Nuffsaid 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 How 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Laguna Girl 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Sky Skier 7-2 6th

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #11 Absolute Beauty 2-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Jen’s Miracle 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Over My Head 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Copper Bluff 6-1 WON ($7.80)

<$150 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 5 with 11 – $8.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 6 with 11 – $4.00
6 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 4,5 – $8.00

A’s with Two B’s

7 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 6 with 11 – $2.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 4,5 – $4.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 5,8 with 5 with 11 – $16.00
12 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 6 with 11 – $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 5 with 4,5 – $16.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 6 with 11 – $8.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 5 with 4,5 – $16.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 6 with 4,5 – $8.00

A’s with One C

17 $2.00 pick P6: 10,12 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
18 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 2,3 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $8.00
19 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 5 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
20 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 7 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
21 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 3,4 with 11 – $8.00
22 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 10 – $4.00

Total: $152.00

<$60 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 7,8 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 4,6 with 11 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 5 with 4,5,10 – $6.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 7,8 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 5,6 with 4,6 with 11 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 4,5,10 – $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 7,8 with 4,6 with 11 – $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 7,8 with 5 with 4,5,10 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 4,6 with 4,5,10 – $12.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 3 with 11 – $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 5 with 8 – $2.00

Total: $56.00

DELAWARE PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: Buddy Delp Memorial, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ground Control 4-1
Next Best: #1 Divine View 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Joint Custody 2-1

7th: OC/C, 4+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Night Maneuver 3-1
Next Best: #2 Picko’s Pride 5-1
Best Value: #4 Escrow Kid 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Guam Typhoon 4-1

<$30 DD Play:

$10: 3-1 ($10)
$3: 3-2/4/7 ($9)
$5: 1-6 ($5)
$1: 1-2/4/7 ($3)
$2: 2-6 ($2)

Total: $29

Good luck!
Steve

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Decamp has been zippy on poly and should take to lawn just fine. Sits behind inside pacesetters Saffron and Aqtaar. City Connect (12-1) regularly arrives late on scenes to boost tris and supers for KY HBPA head Rick Hiles & Ellis Park poobha Ron Geary..

Best Value: #7 Decamp 9-2
Next Best: #1 Saffron Hall 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Aqtaar 4-1
Super Add: #3 City Connect 12-1

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Six pack and get the feeling you need to cover them all to some degree to be quad alive into late double. All but Pretty Fancy are separated by 2-3 lengths and even she has to be considered making her first start on dirt. Hurricane Leila another trying main track first time. Elaine Kowaleski appears best poised for improvement, but no one here will surprise..

Most Likely: #4 Elaine Kowaleski 3-1
Best Value: #6 Ireland 8-1
Next Best: #2 Handmade 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Fancy 6-1

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Miszippityslewda looks like she’s better on dirt. Can stalk and go or take control if those inside choose to take back..

Best Value: #3 Miszippityslewda 9-2
Next Best: #5 Elusive Fate 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Tres Belle 5-2
Super Add: #4 Cookie 6-1

10th: 119th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (Super Hi-5)

While a big part of the discussion for this has involved 8yo Forte Dei Marmi (4-1), Attfield’s 12-1 Perfect Timber is 2nd/layoff and has 12f Northern Dancer placement as an outlier that will win here. Price is right..

Best Value: #4 Perfect Timber 12-1
Next Best: #2 War Dancer 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Tattenham 5-1
Super Add: #3 Moro Tap 6-1

<$60 P4 Play:

7: 7 (A), 1-2 (B), 3 (C)
8: 4 (A), 2-5-6 (B), 1-3 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 1 (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-6-7-8 (C)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 1 with 2,4 – $1.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 – $2.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $12.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 1 with 2,4 – $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 1 with 2,4 – $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 3,5 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 1 with 3,5 – $1.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 1,3 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 4,6 with 2,4 – $2.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 1,6,7,8 – $4.00

Total: $57.00

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-OC/N2X , F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Yes the top pair should get you through the opening leg, but the price options are within striking distance..

Most Likely: #9 Neck of the Moon 3-1 (A)
Best Value: #1 Invading Humor 12-1 (B)
Next Best: #10 Desert Bliss 6-1 (B)
Exotics Use: #4 Ornellia 12-1 (C)

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sea Trial 5-2 (A)
Next Best: #1e KMc/Darley entry 6-5 (B)

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Papy 3-1 (A)
Best Value: #1 Away Game 5-1 (B)
Next Best: #3 Legendary 5-2 (B)
Exotics Use: #7 Spartiatis 10-1 (C)

7th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Murky starter group. This feels like a trap..

Most Likely: #3 Accomplish First 2-1 (A)
Best Value: #5 Rumble Doll 6-1 (B)
Next Best: #6 Star Magnolia 4-1 (B)
Exotics Use: #2 Another Incident 5-2 (C)

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T

With an uncertain pace up front, there’s no guarantee that Filimbi arrives on time. Sheppard’s ATR visit provided confidence that Gathering can return to the strong effort she delivered at GP in January..

Most Likely: #3 Gathering 6-1 (A)
Next Best: #8 Filimbi 2-1 (A)
Best Value: #1 Unbelievable Dream 12-1 (C)
Exotics Use: #6 Scampering 3-1 (C)

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

After Point Roll, this turns into a grab bag..

Most Likely: #7 Point Roll 2-1 (A)
Next Best: #6 Manoffire 8-1 (B)
Best Value: #4 Eastcoast Lights 30-1 (C)
Exotics Use: #3 Vagarious 10-1 (C)

<$75 P6 Play:

4: 9
5: 1-5
6: 1-2-3
7: 3-5-6
8: 3-8
9: 7

1x2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x $2 = $72

P4 Play:

6th: 2 (A), 1-3 (B), 7 (C)
7th: 3 (A), 5-6 (B), 2 (C)
8th: 3-8 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
9th: 7 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 1-2-8-9 (C)

Good luck!
Steve