As a result, going 4 wide in the 8th netted overlaid winner Margie Marie at 13-2 ($15.20), which helped drive the multi to its’ generous $500+ level. Cryptolight was also a value in his score, bring back $11.60. Another positive element of the way the ticket was structured, was being alive to three runners in the nightcap including 24-1 A P Dilly. The $50 horse took an overland route while rallying under Joel Campbell, and fell a length short of the 3-2 winner. Had he been able to win, the P4 would have brought back $2,556. And that’s the position you want to be in.. alive to live horses for real money.

Keeneland opens today, and the P5/late P4 look mighty tough. They introduce the .10 P6 there this afternoon, as well as the .50 P5 which will likely draw a very big pool daily based on the Monmouth and Gulfstream successes. There is also a nice $27k carryover at Aqueduct where turf racing will commence on a course labeled “good” earlier this a.m. The 7th and 9th will go over the lawn while the Maiden Claimer 5th has been taken off…

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Some start to the P5, Who can’t win?

Best Value: #11 Unaccountable 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #5 Hyracotherium 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Kingofthebluegrass 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Glamour Guy 4-1 9th

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Canon Man 9-2 7th
Next Best: #7 A Diehl 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Grand Traverse 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Delano 4-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Elusive Action 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Lee Chapel 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Casper’s Touch 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #3 Shadow Warrior 7-2 10th

9th: 23rd Transylvania (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Tough to take the short price on Breeders’ Cup Juvy Turf tiger Pluck after blah return in Tampa..

Most Likely: #7 Great Mills 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 SCR
Exotics Use: #10 Pluck 5-2 7th
Super Add: #6 Adirondack Summer 4-1 3rd

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Asmussen firster #5 Champagne Run a half to Friesan Fire..

Most Likely: #8 Royal Start 5-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Cascadilla Falls 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Champagne Run 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Shatoosh 7-2 WON ($14.20)
Hi-5 Play: #12 SCR

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 5-6-8-11
7: 5-7-8
8: 10
9: 1-7/SCR
10: 1-5-6-8

4x3x1x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-7-8
8: 1-3-9-10
9: 1/SCR-7-10
10: 1-5-6-8

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 5.5f (P4)

Very nicely matched group. Firsters better be ready because those that have started previously look solid..

Best Value: #4 Court Journey 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Blessed Day 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Snow On the Bayou 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Da Thrill 5-1 8th

$1 Exacta (7-6) Paid $33.90
$1 Trifecta (7-6-4) Paid $176.10

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

NOTE: Major SCR of #1 (POE) Elizabeth Park..

Most Likely: #9 Ransom Zip 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Sand Plum 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1a St. Vickie’s Charm 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Margie Marie 5-1 WON ($15.20)

9th: OC/N2Y, 4+, 1m (DD)

Curious that they make the Bonde invader the ML fave. Even more curious is the fact that Slew the Man, a Washington bred, is not in Hot Springs as a workmate for Sway Away, with the pair drilling on different days..

Best Value: #5 Cryptolight 5-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #1 Proceed Bee 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Slew the Man 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 And Music Came 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $24.00

10th: Arky-CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super)

Best Value: #10 Beautiful Simone 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Satin N Gold 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #3 A P Dilly 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 That’s Dancing 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (4-3) Paid $45.20

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-6-7-8
8: 1-2-3-9
9: 5
10: 3-4-10

5x4x1x3 = $60

$1 P4 (7-3-5-4) Paid $539.90

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Top pair exit Kilroe and just seem to be better than rest here..

Most Likely: #3 Times Gone By 5-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Sebastian Flyte 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Tiz Argent 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Do It All 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (6-1) Paid $37.70
$1 Trifecta (6-1-5) Paid $160.20

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Havens Lake 9-5 4th
Best Value: #1 Ann’s Seven 9-2 –
Next Best: #7 Moon Stone Madness 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #6 Sipnzin 20-1 –

7th: Cal-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Favored rail rallyer from Sadler received poor workout grade from Harrington for last move. The logical pick but not thrilled, as race seems ripe for upset. Walsh returnee gone eons, but she’s too clever a conditioner to ignore sending first time 4yo..

Most Likely: #1 Tiz a Bud Girl 5-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Miss Georgie Girl 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pleasing Sunrise 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Boehle 4-1 WON ($12.40)

8th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Decent group of Cali cuties. Abrams pair worked similarly together and seem eligible..

Most Likely: #7 Billa Shaka 5-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Lindz Whiz 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Distant Glow 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Nana Beach 6-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Cookinthisorthat 4-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 3-6
6: 1-4-6-7
7: 1-2-3
8: 1-5-7-8

2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

POST-SCRATCHES

As forewarned when going against R Heat Lightening in the Oaks, it was one of those ‘Pletcher at Gulfstream’ days that are as annual as Daylight Savings Time, with the conditioner sending out five winners. He not only sent out a pentafecta of photo subjects, he swept the graded stakes for Mrs. Robsham with Awesome Maria and R Heat Lightening moving down the lane as if shot from a circus cannon. It was certainly rewarding for those that loyally back Pletcher runners, as the average price on the five was $5.90. That number was boosted greatly by Mayday Maria’s $12.20.

You can’t bet Pletcher and you can’t beat him… at least at this time of year at this racetrack. And today’s Florida Derby card has potential to be another demonstration of his barn’s authority with 13 horses in 11 of the 12 races (the $25k plating opener is the exception). Travelin Man (3rd-Swale), Hammersmith (4th-MSW), Christmas for Liam (5th-ALW), Ibboyee (6th-Sir Shakleton), Ocean Seven (7th-ALW) and Colizeo (9th-Skip Away) are all legitimate “likely” type winners. If Commandered (Appleton) and/or Stay Thirsty (Florida Derby) win, they may as well build a seperate wing in the Hall of Fame for Pletcher.

Hope everyone did well Saturday and are ready for a big Sunday. In addition to the Gulfstream action, Santa Anita has a $112k carryover on a good card that is highlighted by one of the best sprint stakes you’ll see anywhere in the Potrero Grande. Post time is 7:07pm ET, so don’t miss it.

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

That’s a mighty suspicious drop on favored Mighty Score..

Best Value: #6 Lucky James 8-1
Next Best: #2 Mighty Score 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 A Centurian 4-1
Super Add: #8 Haps Alphabet Soup 10-1

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super0

Today’s maiden affairs start with Tagg’s Jack London with experience over a hatful of nice looking firsters. Zito’s Avenue B, a Len Reggio homebred by Pulpit, is half Whywhywhy and Spellbinder; KMc unveils Golden Triumph, a $400k Darley buy by Bernardini out of Jim Spence’s G3 winner Golden Sonata..

Most Likely: #7 Jack London 3-1
Best Value: #9 Golden Triumph 6-1
Next Best: #4 Avenue B 4-1
Super Add: #2 Ice Cream Man 5-1

3rd: 26th Swale (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

“Other” Pletcher here might bw the key to getting some value in this uninteresting edition of the Swale. Funny how I haven’t seen anyone criticize GP for this weak get-together. If the Bay Shore or Woody Stephens come up like this, you’ll see the Internet light up with alarms of an example of how poor New York racing is..

Most Likely: #6 Travelin Man 4-5
Best Value: #2 Razmataz 12-1
Next Best: #4 Indiano 3-1

4th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Maidens stretch to a mile here and those that have been out have edge on good looking group of firsters. As to pages, Bomber Boy (Bernardini) is a half to Summerly; Labonte (A.P. Indy) is half to one of my favorite racemares ever, Hollywood Story; Ninety Schillings out of the Whitmans’ sharp sprinter Madame Pandit, is a half to the Ron McAnally-trained G1 winning turf mare Mea Domina; Hammersmith is out of MGSW Bella Bellucci and AE Fire With Fire (Distorted Humor) is half to Cosmonaut..

Best Value: #7 Ninety Schillings 6-1
Next Best: #9 Hammersmith 4-1
Exotics Use: #13 Fire With Fire 5-1
Super Add: #5 Big Herman 10-1

5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Christmas for Liam 3-1
Next Best: #1 Hunters Bay 2-1
Best Value: #7 Jaguar Paw 6-1
Super Add: #10 Avenging Spirit 10-1

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 7 (2-4-9)
3: 6
4: 7-9
5: 8

Main: 1x1x2x1 = 2 x $15 = $30
Backup: 3x1x3x1 = 9 x $2 = $18

6th: 2nd Sir Shackleton, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Safe Trip 10-1
Next Best: #5 Ibboyee 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 3-1
Super Add: #9 Nathan’s H Q 10-1

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Like Saturday’s 9th, a deep and treacherous turf ALW. And as we did yesterday when employing a half dozen, 2-4-6-7-8-10 are the includes if you are playing multis through this event (P6, P3’s, DD’s)..

Best Value: #4 Devon Rock 8-1
Next Best: #7 Hariolus 6-1
Exotics Use: #2 Mobilizer 4-1
Super Add: #6 Michael Rules 12-1

8th: 60th Arthur A. Appleton (G3), 4+, 1,-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

As tough as ALW above. Appears to be enough pace pressure to keep Little Mike honest throughout. Will try to connect with prices keying off Cherokee Artist who looks like a grapefruit in this spot..

Best Value: #2 Cherokee Artist 8-1
Next Best: #7 Successful Mission 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Asphalt 10-1
Super Add: #6 Riviera Cocktail 6-1

9th: 24th Skip Away (G3), 4+, 9.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Colizeo 3-1
Best Value: #3 Our Dark Knight 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 S. S. Stone 8-1
Super Add: #8 Jardim 10-1

10th: 60th Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Important but quirky edition of this meet highlight with free-running Flashpoint certain to take them a long way. The key is how far he wants to go, and it is not outlandish to wonder if he can get to the line if unchallenged. The three inside horses — Soldat, To Honor and Serve and Arch Traveler — are the focus in this $1,000,000 event, as they figure to sit comfortable trips with the Dutrow grey in their sights. Dialed In is an underlaid 2-1 second choice, and you won’t make any money here at all if the top candidates dominate the pay slots. I’ll approach the race trying to get 20-1 Arch Traveler into a key position, with the race reminding me of Centennial’s eventful 2006 Fountain of Youth visit when Corinthian was DQ’d for mauling First Samurai..

Best Value: #3 Arch Traveler 20-1
Next Best: #1 Soldat 9-5
Exotics Use: #2 To Honor and Serve 4-1
Super Add: #8 Flashpoint 6-1

11th: OC/N3X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Hey look! It’s ANOTHER horse out of Champion Perfect Sting.. #6 Perfect Bullet..

Best Value: #9 So Elite 12-1
Next Best: #3 Mystic 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Hudson Steele 6-1
Super Add: #4 Deal Making 10-1

11th: MSW, 3+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Our Noble Heart a half to Majesticperfection; White Hill (SCR)a half to Take Charge Lady; Note draw in of #15 Complete Dyno (20-1) who is an exotics candidate first time Sheppard and first time turf..

Most Likely: #10 Perfect Afleet 5-2
Best Value: #2 Our Noble Heart 15-1
Next Best: #3 Imaging 8-1
Exotics Use: #9 Bluember 12-1
Super Add: #15 Complete Dyno 20-1

<$50 P5 Play:

8: 2-6-7-8
9: 3-4
10: 1-2-3-6-7-8
11: 3-9
12: 10

4x2x6x2x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-4
10: 1-2-3-6-7-8
11: 3-9
12: 2-3-9-10-11-15

2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

At Oaklawn, chalk marched through the first three legs of the quad before goofy 22-1 shot upended the ticket. Along the way, I did nab a decent $56 exacta ($1) when 44-1 overlay Walker Bay got up for 2nd behind even money fave Ha Ha Tonka in the MSW 8th. (The Lawyer Ron sister Too Shy Shy debuted 5th, beaten a dozen lengths.) Finally at Santa Anita, firster Closer to Love in the 4th and Saravas Wild Again (In a 4 horse photo) in the 6th, spelled the difference between success and failure. The good news came in the 3rd — Fandino ticking a $57 tri — and the 5th, when Red Alert Day, Hughesy and Sir Dave produced the $82 score.

Overall, lost more than $300 on the afternoon, when I thought it was a day that I expected to be pretty productive. Hope you did OK and are excited about a big weekend at Gulfstream!

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 4+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Moose Man 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Matt’s a Giant 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Fisherman’s Wharf 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #6 Livin Large 10-1 3rd

2nd: FL-OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hard to fathom with the stock he has, that Arnold is 35/0-0-3 for the stand. Depeche Chat was a colt that caught my eye beating Aracharcharch in their respective debuts closing weekend at CD, and he should get Rusty off the duck..

Most Likely: #1 Depeche Chat 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Close It Out 6-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #6 Aldomear 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Shankopotamus 4-1 5th

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $25.50
$1 Trifecta (3-1-6) Paid $98.80
$1 Double (8/3) Paid $68.10

3rd: FL-ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Holiday Flare (8-5) is no better than 3-1 Evangelical (SCR) or 4-1 Neat Lightening. And note proximity of 12-1 Nicey Nice to Neat Lightening, (SCR’d Thursday for this spot), when last tangling..

Most Likely: #7 Neat Lightening 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Holiday Flare 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Nicey Nice 12-1 5th

$1 Double (3/3) Paid $25.30
$1 Pick 3 (8/3/3) Paid $160.40

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

#8 Date to Remember a half sister of Eddington by Bernardini. #1 Spoof is out of the under-rated MGSW Cal-bred Summer Wind Dancer..

Most Likely: #9 R Gypsy Gold 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Expresso Run 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 You’re Kidding 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Spoof 12-1 7th

5th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Romin Robin 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Hibaayeb 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Tapitsfly 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #4 Bay to Bay 3-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-6
3: 3-5-7
4: 1-4-6-9
5: 2-4-6-7

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

More interesting pedigrees including Seauxbelle, a Dynaformer sister of the great Left Bank (!), Hungry Island, Soaring Empire’s half by More Than Ready, and 5yo (?) Purple Trillium out of Champion Perfect Sting by Seeking the Gold, whose 3yo sister Smart Sting has been sharp in her 2 winter wins this oval..

Most Likely: #3 Alpha Centauri 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Wet One 6-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Rockettes Escapade 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Purple Trillium 12-1 WON ($38.00)

7th: Alligator Alley, 3yo, 1m-Outer Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Longhunter 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Stormy the Cat 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 One Cool Dude 4-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Leave of Absence 6-1 6th

$1 Pick 3 (6/7/8) Paid $174.90

8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Last of the soph filly MSW’s, and yet more notable pages on hand: Savvy Supreme is a half to Commentator by Distorted Humor; Claire’s Song, by Unbridled’s Song, is out of the nice Chimichurri; Scatuorchio buyback With the Current (Mr. Greeley) is the first foal out of MSW Kresgeville; the Jackson’s Graceontour is half to multiple sprint stake winning Feline Story; and Mount Joy homebred Air Guitar is Smooth Air’s half sister by Five Star Day..

Most Likely: #10 Heir to Dare 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Savvy Supreme 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #3 Southern Campaign 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Graceontour 8-1 8th

$1 Pick 3 (7/8/4) Paid $160.40

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Deep and treacherous..

Best Value: #3 Dreamed to Dream 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Blue Angel 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 La Clouche 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Prize Catch 15-1 3rd

10th: 32nd Rampart (G3), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Mott slogging through blah winter, but return of Unrivaled Belle might jump start his stand though co-choice Awesome Maria has a fitness edge..

Most Likely: #3 Awesome Maria 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Unrivaled Belle 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Stephanie Got Even 10-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Dubai Dancer 5-1 5th

11th: 41st Bonnie Miss (Gulfstream Oaks), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super)

If R Heat Lightening wins, god bless her, because there are about 14 reasons why she is as vulnerable a favorite as you’ll find. But you are dealing with Pletcher at Gulfstream, so nothing should surprise..

Most Likely: #7 It’s Tricky 2-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Island School 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 R Heat Lightening 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Super Add: #2 Triune 8-1 7th

12th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Morningside Heights 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #9 Gator’s Tracks 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 It’s Not for Love 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Road Track’s Dream 6-1 7th

<$100 P5 Play:

8: 2-4-10-12
9: 3-4-5-6-7-8
10: 2-3
11: 7
12: 1-2-9-11

4x6x2x1x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

<$50/25 P4 Play:

9: 3-4-5-6-7-8
10: 2-3
11: 7 (6)
12: 1-2-9-11

6x2x1x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 ($48 if using both in the 11th)