KEENELAND

POSt-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P5. P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Shy Temper 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Pray for Grace 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Even Forest 8-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Keyana Washington 4-1 3rd

6th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

4-5 is too short a price to discover that Dubai’s Connection doesn’t care for the surface..

Best Value: #4 Mud Creek 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Tribecky 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Dubai’s Connection 4-5 3rd
Super Add: #8 Monkey’s Moonbeam 10-1 5th

7th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Boisterous 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1a Strong Commitment 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Kindergarden Kid 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lighthouse Sound 5-2 4th

8th: 10th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

This is a nicely-matched field, and as big an Evening Jewel fan as I am, it’s hard to embrace her too enthusiastically at what will be a very low price..#7 Amen Hallelujah appears to be running after all; Not a SCR through 12:30 late change announcement..

Best Value: #1 Kitty in a Tizzy 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Amen Hallelujah 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Evening Jewel 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Tremendemente Loca 20-1 9th

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Very nice race and it comes with an $8k Hi-5 Carryover..

Best Value: #5 Maid of Heaven 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 High On Kitten 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Sex Appeal 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Littlegreatone 8-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Refugio 6-1 10th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 3-4-6-8
6: 2-4-8-10
7: 7
8: 1-7-8
9: 5-7-11

4x4x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-8-10
7: 1-7
8: 1-7-8
9: 4-5-7-8-9-11

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Most Likely: #2b Spooky Kitten 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #6 Vin Santo 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Pride of Paris 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Soto’s Hija 10-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-7) Paid $44.50
$1 Trifecta (2-7-6) Paid $205.90
$1 Superfecta (2-7-6-5) Paid $1,234.00

6th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Love Dare 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Ms Silver Oak 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Ipswich Bay 10-1 7th
Super Add: #2 SCR

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Cheetah’s Purr 8-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Straight Line 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Captain My Captain 8-1 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: 3 Shrill 6-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Crazy field, and an 8-5 ML on Awesome Act? You’re supposed to bet him at that price? No thanks..

Best Value: #1 Shrimp Dancer 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Day of Destiny 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Mr. Ryder 10-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Lejadami 20-1 10th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Baron Slew 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Adjournment 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Winter Canyon 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Mightyville 4-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Buzzards Roost 10-1 11th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 2
6: 10-11
7: 3-6-7-12
8: 1-3-5-6-7-10
9: 1-7-10

1x2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 10-11
7: 3-6-7-12
8: 1-3-5-6-7-10
9: 1-7-10

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

SLOPPY & OFF THE TURF

6th: Chase the Dream-NY, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Zito entry 5-2 2nd/5th
Next Best: #5 Cody Samora 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Spa City Princess 6-1 WON ($10.60)

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Buster’s Ready 7-2 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #5 Obey the Rules 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Myprinessallison 8-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Victoria Lynn 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Flying Train 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Viola 7-2 WON ($3.40)

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #14 Now Now Girl 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #10 Money Magnet 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Southern Sunsation 3-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Missymoonlitmagic 9-2 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-5
7: 1-5
8: 1-3-5-6
9: 5-10-14

2x2x4x3 = $48

POST-SCRATCHES

If Todd Pletcher believed that kind of lead up was going to be enough to have Uncle Mo ready for the colt’s first 9f try, he will know better for the next time the situation arises. Then again, he might not given the Pletcher playbook that invariably relies on these kinds of maintainance drills instead of long slow gallops or stouter wind-generating 5-7f works. The Repole Team now find themselves forced to play catch up with Uncle Mo, and perhaps they still have enough to work with to be the kind of factor in the Classics that has been anticipated since the Breeders’ Cup. But their confidence has been shaken badly and the veneer is on the undeniably outstanding Juvenile is dulled considerably.

The day leading up to the Wood was delightful fun at Aqueduct, on a lovely spring afternoon, with a robust crowd jammed into the truncated, under-construction facility. The stakes winners in the Comely, Bay Shore and Carter were popular, with avariety of connections getting moments in the sun. David Dawkes (Hot Summer), Bill Anderson (JJ’s Lucky Train) and Nick Zito assistant Tim Poole (Morning Line) legged up Luis Saez, Jose Ferrer and John Velasquez on the heroine and heroes, and all three races authored stories that will be fun to relate on “At the Races” this week. That brought us to the feature, and Graham Motion, breeder-owner Diane Cotter and Eddie Castro, and another set of principals whose success produced warm reaction.

Elsewhere on the Derby Trail scene , Bob Baffert continued his general wizardry, getting Arnie Zetcher’s maiden winner Midnight Interlude home in the final jump over dogged Comma to the Top. With The Factor in good position going into Saturday’s Arkansas Derby and Jaycito pausing for the Lexington, the Triple Crown-focused Hall of Famer appears ready for a three-pronged assault on Louisville. Pletcher’s day wasn’t a total loss, as Ahmed Zayat’s Joe Vann finally fulfilled some of his promise winning the marginalized Illinois Derby. The colt is not Triple Crown nominated, and it would cost Zayat an additional $20,000 with his $180,000 check from Hawthorne to gain possible Derby entry.

Could not produce a P4 winner Saturday, but had some solid opinions that netted some exotic hits and P3’s. Hope you did OK! Nice carryover into Sunday’s Aqueduct card…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$66k P6 Carrover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #6 Mach Twelve 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Completely Bear 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Upper Afleet 3-1 WON ($8.50)

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Nagging issue is what you do with the conspicuous Dutrow plummeter Kincsem Noi?

Best Value: #6 Judy’s Warrior 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Sully’s Landing 5-2 –
Exotics Use: #9 Disco Capote 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Super Add: #4 Allen’s Affair 10-1 5th

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Sneaky good race with a trainer change surface switcher in Torrone, a last out big fig jump MDN winner stretching out in Silver Over Gold, a positive rider upgrade with ‘DaSilva off’ on Irish Lady, a distance turnback in Fortheloveof Anna, and more..

Best Value: #3 Irish Lady 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Torrone 2-1 –
Exotics Use: #6 Silver Over Gold 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Fortheloveof Anna 10-1 WON ($7.00)

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 (POE) Komisarek 10-1 5th/7th
Next Best: #1 Knock Quietly 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Carbon Copy 5-2 WON ($5.80)

8th: NY-Packett’s Landing, 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dr Disco 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Tap Attack 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Bold Deed 8-5 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #4 SCR

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Queen of Protocol 5-1 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #4 Sugar Trade 4-1 –
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
Super Add: #8 Risky Gamble 8-1 4th

<$200 P5 P6 Play:

4: 1-6-7
5: 2-6
6: 1-3-6-7
7: 1-2
8: 1
9: 1-4

3x2x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-6-7
7: 1-2-7
8: 1
9: 1-2-4-6-8-9

4x3x1x6 = $72

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 62nd Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#2 R Holiday Mood has to improve considerably to best ALL of the 4 listed below. I suppose out of fear of Team Pletcher it might make some sense to use her in a back-up ticket, but she is a classic underlay/bet-against in this spot..

Most Likely: #3 Her Smile 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Ava K 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Hot Summer 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #7 Royal Sighting 5-1 7th

8th: 51st Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

HRTV’s Rich Migliore said on ATR Friday that he thought Buffum looked in good flesh this week in NY. You can show some respect, but he’s hard to accept at 5-2 off the trip to the desert. J J’s Lucky Train is the kind of horse that regularly wins this event. Dr Disco is a reported SCR to run in Sunday’s NY-bred stake..

Most Likely: #3 J J’s Lucky Train 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #8 Royal Currier 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Buffum 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Justin Phillip 5-1 3rd

9th: 111th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Super has been ADDED with scratch of Calibrachoa. On the subject of Calibrachoa, remember that speed for seven eighths (7f) is completely different than speed for three quarters (6f). Horses that have form at two turns and are turning back to 7f from classy routes are historically dangerous at this trip..

Most Likely: #7 Apriority 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Morning Line 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #6 Yawanna Twist 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Sunrise Smarty 15-1 6th

10th: 87th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

You may wish to feel differently about Uncle Mo four weeks from now against 19 at Churchill Downs, but in this spot, anything other than a decisive romp by him would be shocking..

Most Likely: #5 Uncle Mo 1-5 3rd
Next Best: #2 Toby’s Corner 8-1 WON ($19.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Arthur’s Tale 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Norman Asbjornson 15-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-7
8: 1-2-3-7-8
9: 7-10
10: 5

5x5x2x1 = $50

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Silver Rock 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #3 Screenplay 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Schwartzbewithyou 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Avenstoke 6-1 7th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Irish Frankie 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Jo the Cat 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Totemtale 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Kingpost 8-1 WON ($9.00)

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very slippery group..

Best Value: #6 Ritual 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Versailles Road 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Let’s Do It 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #4 King’s Command 8-1 2nd

9th: 74th Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

She wouldn’t have caught my eye necessarily, but Margolis winning Friday with Homerun Berti (7-1) first time synthetic got my attention. Bouquet Booth broke her maiden this surface going 7f, will be a long number and has shown some tactical options. If you want to go against the favorites, she, Wyomia and Delightful Mary are the ones with which you can have fun..

Best Value: #1 Bouquet Booth 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dancinginherdreams 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wyomia 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Delightful Mary 5-1 7th

10th: S/ALW, 4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Afleet’s Secret 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Cold Feet 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dancing Don 15-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Cape Hatchet 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Perfect Casting 6-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6
7: 7
8: 1-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 2-8

4x1x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 1-2-5-6-8-11

1x4x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

HAWTHORNE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 54th Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

OK as a betting affair. Sad as Derby ‘prep’..

Best Value: #6 Sour 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Watch Me Go 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Joe Vann 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #8 Zoebear 8-1 2nd

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: 37th Las Cienegas H. (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Tanda 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Seperate Forest 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #7 La Nez 10-1 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$54k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #4 Off the Wall 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Blake 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Position A 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Gallatin’s Run 9-2 5th

7th: 52nd Arcadia (G2), 4yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Caracortado 6-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Jeranimo 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Liberian Freighter 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Super Add: #4 Blue Chagall 8-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 FIRST DUDE 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Coo Cachoo 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Kevlar Kid 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Erbeia 20-1 5th

9th: 31st Providencia (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super0

Most Likely: #7 Cambina 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #3 Wave of Applause 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Wallstreeter 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Whisper Louise 6-1 2nd

10th: 74th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Anthony’s Cross is an underlay that needs improvement to beat several here. The fun price and logical horse to key off is Indian Winter at 8-1..

Best Value: #2 Indian Winter 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Comma to the Top 7-2 2nd
Exotoics Use: #4 Silver Medallion 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Mr. Commons 4-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Hey Maria 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #10 One Bad Texter 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Black Wildcat 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Warren’s in to it 15-1 8th
Super Add: #14 Lily Amore 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 4-8
7: 1-6
8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 13

2x2x1x4x6x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 9-10-13

1x4x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 ($72 for $1)