Got off to strong start at Keeneland Friday keying off another Wes Ward 2yo for an exotics sweep, but whiffed thereafter. Not only was the Kentucky action a leaky vessel, but my live play at Gulfstream was frustrating as well. Hope you did OK. Am en route back to Louisville after a nice week in Florida, and live coverage of Derby/Oaks 137 begins Monday from Churchill Downs. Meanwhile, a big Saturday is in the offing as the Lexington at KEE looks to perhaps add Silver Medallion to the Rose Run field and Gulfstream distributes its’ steady-built Rainbow 6 carryover pot. The pool should eclipse the $5,000,000 mark, and though the wager isn’t a smart play day in, day out, the mandatory payout makes this particular sequence well worth trying. Unfortunately, we will largely be going up against a number of syndicates that figure to cover many, many more multiples than lone wolf players can afford. But even small budget can take a quality swing at the challenging sequence, and my suggestion for $96 is below. Enjoy the day… Talk to you from the Downs Monday!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Eddie Set Go 10-1
Next Best: #8 Senor Dehere 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Wear the Crown 3-1
Super Add: #4 E Knows Why 4-1

7th: 81st Ben Ali (G3), 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

If Exhi is ready off the break, he is certainly the horse to beat, but Dean’s Kitten owns the recentness edge..

Best Value: #4 Dean’s Kitten 4-1
Next Best: #3 Exhi 6-5
Exotics Use: #1 Stay Put 4-1

8th: 15th Giant’s Causeway, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Typically brutal turf sprint..

Most Likely: #3 Rose Catherine 5-2
Best Value: #7 Holiday for Kitten 8-1
Next Best: #11 Stormy Publisher 3-1
Super Add: #9 Chantilly Nayla 10-1

9th: 30th Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Was greatly disappointed by Silver Medallion’s uninspired effort in the Santa Anita Derby and hardly am enthralled by the rush job turnaround to this, but he is the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #2 Silver Medallion 8-5
Best Value: #5 Taptowne 15-1
Next Best: #6 Casper’s Touch 3-1
Super Add: #1 Derby Kitten 4-1

10th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Special Action a half to KEE-loving Aikenite..

Most Likely: #4 Tale of the Dance 5-2
Next Best: #7 Special Action 5-1
Best Value: #12 Jo the Cat 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Saturday Dance 4-1
Hi-5 Play: #3 Gallant Pleasure 6-1

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 3-4-5-8
7: 3-4
8: 3-7-9-11
9: 2-5-6
10: 4

4x2x4x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4
8: 3-6-7-9-10-11
9: 1-2-5-6
10: 4-7

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Love the Serpe T2D and cutback player in this spot..

Best Value: #11 Rumbletown 10-1
Next Best: #13 Indian Fog 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 Marias Pass 4-1
Super Add: #6 Captain Crench 6-1

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Monitor SCR sheet carefully as Mustang Island uber-dangerous as draw-in..

Most Likely: #3 Walt’s Whiz 4-1
Best Value: #1 Danny’s Prayer 15-1
Next Best: #2 Reign of Kings 6-1
Super Add: #12 Knight Shot 8-1

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favored Zero Rate Policy may be leaned upon as single on many tix, but it doesn’t feel that simple, especially with crafty Fawkes (Vimana) and intriguing Servis (Christies) 2nd timers looming..

Most Likely: #10 Zero Rate Policy 8-5
Best Value: #7 Christiesborntorun 6-1
Next Best: #6 Vimana 5-1
Super Add: #9 Hebert Hall 4-1

10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Performing 7-2
Next Best: #2 Soveriegn Crisis 4-1
Best Value: #11 Ithinkihadthatone 6-1
Super Add: #8 More Is Better 10-1

11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Tough group, but those that are playing small tix may want to make a stand here with Albertrani entry stalwart..

Best Value: #1 Capital Market 6-1
Next Best: #3 Hariolus 4-1
Exotics Use: #12 Gathering Cloud 3-1
Super Add: #2 Catalan 12-1

12th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Would love to spread wider, but budget may hinder your anchor leg decisions..

Most Likely: #9 Diaper Dandy 5-2
Best Value: #11 Avorio 20-1
Next Best: #2 Chance Review 8-1
Exotics Use: #12 Sassidy 3-1

<$100 P6 Play:

7: 11-13
8: 1-2-3-4-9-12
9: 6-7-10
10: 2-9
11: 1-3-12
12: 2-9-11-12

2x6x3x2x3x4 = 864 x .10 = $86.40

<$75 P5 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4-9-12
9: 6-7-10
10: 2-9
11: 1-3
12: 9-11

6x3x2x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 6-7-10
10: 2-8-9-11
11: 1-3-12
12: 2-9-11-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Found the end zone a few times at Keeneland Thursday on a largely formful afternoon with bookend Superfectas to start and finish the 5th-9th and the modest $104 P4. Keying favored My Perfect Light in the 5th tripped an $88 tri and $291 super, and while it was nice to get the top four in correct order in the nightcap, it wasn’t worth a whole lot. The P5 conso returned $3.20 as I relied too heavily on single Salty Strike. The day’s feature marked the return of Memories of Silver daughter Winter Memories for Jimmy Toner, and she couldn’t have looked better inhaling the field in the stretch. Hope you did well! Another good sequence at KEE today ahead of a busy Saturday!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1a Gypsy Robin 8-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #6 Dorothy’s Aurora 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Painted Woman 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Stormy Donna Gail 15-1 4th

$1 Exacta (1-7) Paid $10.70
$1 Trifecta (1-7-6) Paid $44.80
$1 Superfecta (1-7-6-3) Paid $347.20

7th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 William’s Kitten 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Odds On 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Alfarabi 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Aridus 6-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult group and made trickier by the race coming off the lawn..

Best Value: #2 Fort Larned 8-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Magnet Cove 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Beachcombing 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 R Fast Cat 12-1 8th

9th: 17th Doubledogdare (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

And here we thought the 8th was difficult. This is a very slippery event, and it feels crazy to be confident in Check the Label being dominant first off the break..

Most Likely: #2 Denomination 5-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Washington Bridge 6-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #11 Milwaukee Appeal 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 La Gran Balladora 20-1 5th

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Shocking Behavior 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Family Matter 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Correspondent 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 What Happens 4-1 9th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 1-6-7
7: 2-3-4-5
8: 2
9: 1-2
10: 2-6-7-9

3x4x1x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$100 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4-5
8: 2-3-6-7-8-10
9: 1-2
10: 2-6-7-9

4x6x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

Anticipation seems to be building for the potential uber-carryover scenario Saturday at Gulfstream, where the Rainbow 6 pot will likely swell towards $2,000,000 if un-hit Thursday and Friday. At that point, it’s anyone’s guess what multiple of the pool will be augmented, but a ‘must disperse’ jackpot of at least $5 million would appear certain. The sequence, races 7-12 drawn Wednesday, will challenge anyone hoping for easy picking, given 5 events with 12 runners and one with 10 for nearly 2,500,000 multiples. Mike Welsch Friday on ATR to help decipher the difficult skein.

Meanwhile, speaking of difficult, Keeneland continues to be very hard to negotiate, though as we saw Saturday with the tote success in the Blue Grass, you get paid when you have an opinion that works out. Thursday’s P5 races are deep and interesting, with an excellent feature in the Appalachian that will only be slightly diminished by likely scratches of Diva Ash and Smart Sting. It’s a “Best Of” At the Races today as I slip in a vacation day with Tina before wrapping up from the Florida studio back live tomorrow!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 My Perfect Light 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #10 Lemon Drop On Top 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Hoopskirt 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Palisades Dawn 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-8) Paid $8.10
$1 Trifecta (3-8-5) Paid $88.00
$1 Superfecta (3-8-5-10) Paid $291.00

6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This has ‘problem’ written all over it..

Most Likely: #2 Santo Gato 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 D’marin 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Duke of Del Rey 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #5 Farmer’s Club 6-1 5th

7th: ALW/N2L, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Salty Strike 2-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Cedar Grove 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Sam’s Bliss 5-1 WON ($18.80)
Super Add: #3 Eye Opener 10-1 10th

8th: 23rd Appalachian (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Very nice group. Note that Dale Romans told ATR listeners he expects to SCR Diva Ash, and word is that Roger Attfield will SCR Smart Sting. Be sure to check for KEE Scratches/Changes as both are players should they happen to stay in..

Best Value: #6 New Normal 8-1 –
Next Best: #4 Winter Memories 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Parting Words 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Harlan’s Ruby 12-1 –

9th: MSW, F&M-4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Merry Miner 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #7 Arboria 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Inlovewithlove 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Quick Return 6-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #3 SCR

$1 Exacta (6-7) Paid 7.90
$1 Trifecta (6-7-4) Paid $19.60
$1 Superfecta (6-7-4-2) Paid $41.90

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 3-5-8-10
6: 2-4-5-6
7: 4
8: 4-6-11
9: 6-7

4x4x1x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 5 (3,11/6/1/3,4,5,9,10/3,5,6,8) Paid $3.20 (4OF5)

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-6
7: 1-2-4
8: 1-4-6-7-11-12
9: 6-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/1/3,4,5,9,10/3,5,6,8) Paid $103.90

Was traveling much of the afternoon Saturday but got to enjoy some of the day’s best action, literally and figuratively. Monster-priced top pair in the Blue Grass were heavily touted on ATR, and the photo finish between Mrs. Weber’s Brilliant Speed (19-1) and Maker’s Twinspired (24-1) would have been just as productive with the opposite finish ($633 exacta). For close listeners to ATR, Rick Hammerle provided 2 tabs for the day, the first of which was $40 Brilliant Speed. He followed that up with $52 Archarcharch, my third choice, who in the Arkansas Derby ran his best race and emphatically stamped the Derby passport for Jon Court and father in law Jinks Fires. It was a popular victory for purists, and there won’t be a more joyous barn to be around at the Downs these next next three weeks than the Longfield shed with the red “Flying F”. Nehro was second, and gets Ahmed Zayat back to the Derby after the Eskenderaya disappointment. Finally at Chuck Town late Saturday, top tab Duke of Mischief ($11.80) came through to win the $1MM Classic for David Fawkes and Co. under Joe Bravo. Hope you did well Saturday! Quick glance at today’s KEE action from here in South Florida! ATR from the Margate studio Monday!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P5,

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #7 Hey Drew 5-1
Next Best: #1 Devine Revelation 6-1
Super Add: #11 Barat 10-1

6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Jeanbaptiste Corot 5-2
Best Value: #7 Scuff 10-1
Next Best: #10 Imhotep 3-1
Super Add: #4 Grind 5-1

7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Sandys Diamond 5-1
Next Best: #7 Ivy Connection 4-1
Exotics Use: #10 Tapativity 5-1
Super Add: #6 SCR

8th: Beaumont (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Turbulent Descent 4-5
Best Value: #4 Honey Chile 10-1
Next Best: #5 Tell a Kelly 5-2

9th: ALW/C, 4+, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 SCR
Best Value: #2 Golden Yank 12-1
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Hollinger 5-2
Hi-5 Play: #4 Don Cavallo 3-1

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 1-7
6: 1-4-7-10
7: 7-8-10
8: 6
9: 2-4-7

2x4x3x1x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-7-10
7: 7-8-10
8: 4-6
9: 2-4-7

4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

Good luck!
Steve

Keeneland continued to play hard Friday, as even including winners in the selections didn’t mean much as they were left off the multis! The reward when the magic happens is clearly worth the effort and investment though, as the carryover P5 produced a $6,445 payoff, the P4 came back at $1,407. The Hi-5 nightcap was a gaudy $21,556. Hope you did OK despite my direction Friday.