BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Cupid’s Way-NY, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fun little state bred stake..

Most Likely: #3 Lots of Stones 8-5
Best Value: #6 Big Brownie 5-1
Next Best: #4 Cuff Me 5-2
Super Add: #7 Spa City Princess 8-1

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Golden Galleon 8-1
Next Best: #13 Curlina 7-2
Exotics Use: #11 Victoria Lynn 8-1
Super Add: #8 Christina d’Oro 15-1

8th: NY-S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Whateverittakes 7-2
Next Best: #1 Pocket Cowboys 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Ruffino 5-2
Super Add: #3 Writingonthewall 2-1

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #3 One Spring Storm 5-1
Next Best: #9 His Precious Lady 20-1
Exotics Use: #11 Dean Avenue 5-1
Super Add: #10 Galaxy Jet 20-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-6-7
7: 9-13
8: 1-10
9: 3-9-10-11

4x2x2x4 = $64

Good Luck!
Steve

Though great fun with the Churchill night opener a rousing success, Saturday produced largely poor results on the wagering front. Caught a nice tri to end the Belmont session with 11-2 Nutmegcuveeroyale and 9-1 Paci di Notte making it work for $200+ ($1). That was the day’s best opinion however as multi-race plays never got going. The Downs played host to a party for 40,000 in the evening, and it was a truly riotous atmosphere that ‘worked’ on many levels. The racing highlight came from Neil Howard winning the Derby Trial with Machen, who clearly wants to do exactly what was asked of him in the contentious and roughly run race. Dominus was the runner up and was likely best, and might not have been out-photographed had he been able to see Edgar Prado and the Distorted Humor chestnut drawing close. But the win was a popular one under the spires, with Howard about as well-liked and respected an individual as there is in the sport. Hope you did OK Saturday… Sunday thoughts for Elmont are below.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Judy’s Warrior 2-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Tindaro’s Prospect 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Fivestar Karakorum 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Super Add: #6 Read About Me 6-1 9th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

These feel interchangeable..

Most Likely: #10 Ecoach 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Private Escort 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Good Night Lucy 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Happy Haya 4-1 5th

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Pernice 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Extinction 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Equivocation 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #10 Ommadon’s Reign 20-1 8th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

The fave or 2nd choice (#1 Running in Circles) don’t have to win this, and if they don’t, look for boxcars..

Most Likely: #9 Katy’s Office Girl 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Back to Hurstland 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Auric Girl 8-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Guyana Princess 12-1 4th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Pretty Boy Freud 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Devon Rock 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 New Yawker 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Indio Rooster 10-1 8th

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Glacier Bay 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #5 Retire to What 5-2 5th
Best Value: #11 Can’t Refuse 30-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Onzain 12-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7
8: 3-5-8-9
9: 2-3-8
10: 5-6-10-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Made last day playing successful Thursday earning enough on the chalky P4 and P5 conso to cover the bets to go along with a nice sweep of the quality exotics under Keertana in the Bewitch. Keeneland was a fight all three weeks, and I felt lucky to get out around even with the nice hit in the Blue Grass righting many of the stand’s wrongs. Hope you did well and are looking forward to attacking the wide variety of quality circuit action that has transitioned. Belmont, Churchill and Hollywood, and to a lesser extent Calder and Delaware, will now move into focus for the run towards summer. Very playable sequences for Belmont’s first Saturday, and Opening Night at Churchill, where upwards of 40,000 are expected, should be great fun for those of us that wish to ignore our spouses or families from 6-11:30p.

IMPORTANT PROGRAMMING NOTE! SiriusXM is undergoing a channel reorganization on Wednesday, May 4th, and “At the Races” will move to Sirius 93 and XM 209 as a result..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Quite an eye-popping group of unraced sophs in here including Mr. Jerkens’ Bold Warrior, a Bernardini out of Hollywood Wildcat and thereby a half to War Chant, Ministers Wild Cat, et al.. Mott returns Don Adams’ homebred Caneros to the races for a 3yo bow too, and this chestnut is a Distorted Humor out of the wonderful Kalookan Queen.. And that’s just two of the half dozen pedigreed players signed on!

Most Likely: #7 Global Power 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Indigene Charm 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Bold Warrior 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1a Copy Editor 8-1 6th

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Lillehammer 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dancing Tiz 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Sunny Smiles 7-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Beautiful Risk 4-1 WON ($10.40)

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

This is a terrific group and you would expect that the next start for the top finishers would likely be in the Woody Stephens in 6 weeks..

Most Likely: #5 Redeemed 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #8 Vee’s Accolade 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Cool Blue Red Hot 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Dawly 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $13.20
$1 Trifecta (5-8-9) Paid $40.00

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

With this coming off turf, you’re somewhat obligated to cover all 4 of these. Very tough to separate..

Most Likely: #12 Show Trial 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1a Sheraguska 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Dorian Will 7-2 4th
Super Add: #13 All in No Outs 7-2 5th

8th: XLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky group. Going to reach for a few projectable types and try to beat Rice & Mott whom you can cover in multis..

Best Value: #5 Envoyez Vite 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Moonwalk Beauty 7-2 WON-On DQ ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Come a Callin 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Olive Eye 15-1 2nd

9th: 83rd Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD)

Wow.. As discussed Friday on ATR with Nick Tammaro, despite having just 6, this thing came up particularly good and treacherous..

Most Likely: #6 Christmas for Liam 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Convocation 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Haynesfield 9-5 4th

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Brutally tough finish to challenging sequence..

Best Value: #4 Thelampisnotguilty 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Nutmegcuveeroyale 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Paci Di Notte 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 What’s the Record 3-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-1) Paid $54.75
$1 Trifecta (2-1-9) Paid $210.75

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-7
8: 2-3-5-8
9: 1-5-6
10: 1-2-4

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Berberis 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Skylord 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Henry’s Time 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Chipshot 5-1 WON ($5.80)

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Time Counts 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Vegas Trip 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Ensign’s Soul 12-1 3rd

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Joe Six Pack 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Flatter Me Blue 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Young Joe 10-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Teeberry 6-1 7th

8th: 87th Derby Trial (G3), 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Travelin Man 7-5 6th
Next Best: #5 J J’s Lucky Train 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Beamer 20-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Indian Winter 8-1 4th

9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Ernfold 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Pearly Blue 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 SCR
Super Add: #5 Oregon Lady 4-1 WON ($7.80)

10th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Needadrink 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Gripey Sarah 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Knock Out Princess 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Need an Angel 10-1 WON ($12.80)

11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Cool Lion 3-1 –
Best Value: #2 Dancing Don 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Atlantic Paws 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Squander 5-2 4th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Babu 6-1 WON ($14.00)

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-5-10
8: 2-4-5
9: 4-8
10: 4-6-10
11: 2-5

4x3x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-5-7
9: 3-4-5-8
10: 4-6-10
11: 2-5

4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

Had a couple of good notions that resulted in some OK cashes at KEE Wednesday, but really would have liked to get Poortown Princess up at 15-1 in the 7th. Hope you did well. Not a lot of time today, so here’s a few thoughts on a terrific late sequence at Keeneland..

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Tough, fun race..

Best Value: #9 Street Flyer 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Pure Home Brew 5-2 12th
Exotics Use: #11 I’vebeensickuknow 12-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Look Ah Yonder 30-1 10th

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Wow. Another superb heat..

Best Value: #3 Wild Strike 6-1 6th
Next Best: #11 La Reine Lionne 3-1 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Purple Trillium 4-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Lady Jadana 10-1 8th

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Another interesting group..

Best Value: #8 Hattaash 10-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Dark Cove 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Future Prospect 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Mad Flatter 5-1 6th

8th: 50th Bewitch (G3), F&M-4+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Keertana 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #6 Honimiere 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 La Luna de Miel 3-1 4th
Super Add: #10 My Baby Baby 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-10) Paid $30.40
$1 Trifecta (5-10-6) Paid $201.10
$1 Superfecta (5-10-6-2) Paid $540.60

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Chinchilla Lady 8-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #8 Went Platinum 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Devil’s Chance 12-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Storm Cloud Coming 7-2 5th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 3-9-11
6: 3-8-9-11
7: 3-4-5-8
8: 5
9: 6-8

3x4x4x1x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

.50 CENT Pick 5 (1-2/11/13/14-4-1/3/5/9-6) 4 Correct Paid $6.40 x 3 = $19.20

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-8-9-11
7: 3-4-5-8
8: 2-5-6
9: 5-6-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 P4 (2/11/13/14-4-1/3/5/9-6) Paid: $98.40

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 13f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 En Fuego 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Center Divider 5-2 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #1 Luckman 15-1 7th
Super Add: #6 El Crespo 12-1 2nd

$1 EXACTA (7-6) $50.00
$1 TRIFECTA (7-6-5) $122.80

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Jaleb 10-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Bridging 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Sunday Headline 4-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Standup Comic 5-1 2nd

6th: MSW, 2yo, 4.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Isle of Skye 5-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Event Center 12-1 9th
Next Best: #10 SCR
Super Add: #5 My Samurai 15-1 3rd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 French Sadie 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Fleeting Glance 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Poortown Princess 20-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Aditsan 4-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 9f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Mystical Star 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #6 Cryptocandiac 6-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Jones Zing 30-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Skating 4-1 2nd

$1 EXACTA (8-7) $11.80
$1 TRIFECTA (8-7-9) $149.60

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Shopped Out 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Kitten’s House 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Royal Order 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Mad Magic 20-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Bankellie 10-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 3-11
6: 5-6-7-10/SCR
7: 1-6-8
8: 6-8
9: 7-9

2x4x3x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-6-7-10/SCR
7: 1-6-8
8: 6-7-8-9
9: 3-7-9

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve