BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

$25k P6 carryover at Elmont today; Looks like rain will be avoided..

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Forty Prayers 10-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #4 Iguazu 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Payout 4-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Richie’s Rocket 8-1 6th

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Always liked and rooted for #8 Lakeside Chapel even before Dee Tee Stables ended up with her 2yo sibling Toy Cannon. Fun race with nice prices on her (8-1) and #1 Nurse Dolce (6-1) with both having big shots in balanced, contentious field..

Best Value: #1 Nurse Dolce 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Makeminechocolate 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Lakeside Chapel 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Victory at Last 7-2 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Saratoga Steve 7-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Good to Be Me 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Con the Cat 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1a Final Ending 3-1 11th (Purse only)

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Gimme Credit 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #7 Compliance Officer 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Sky Blue Pink 6-1 5th
Best Value: #13 Midnight Billy 15-1 7th

9th: 57th Peter Pan (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Head-scratching edition of this fine standard, long the major NY advance of the Belmont. Quirky and deep field assembled with several faces signed on that you don’t see often on this circuit in Von Hemel, Whiting and Ortiz (Manny, not Paulino). Styles are fair and balanced from speed to stalkers to closers, so everyone should get a chance to their thing. Spread if you can afford it because there aren’t many auto-tosses here..

Most Likely: #2 Uncle Brent 4-1 9th
Best Value: #11 Monzon 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Alternation 6-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Bold Deed 20-1 6th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #11 Factual 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Annawon 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: 2 Departures 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Happy End 6-1 11th

<$150 P5 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-8
6: 1-2-8
7: 9
8: 3-7-10-13
9: 2-11
10: 11

3x3x1x4x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-9
8: 3-7-10-13
9: 2-6-11
10: 2-3-8-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lightshaft 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Family Matter 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Splendor Town 7-2 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #5 Avolo 6-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

To paraphrase Beetlejuice, “Turf sprints.. You hate ’em, I hate ’em..”

Most Likely: #10 Late SCR
Next Best: #8 Birdie Beats Par 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Five Star David 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Kajiwara 9-5 WON ($3.20)

9th: OC/N3L, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky short field features the return of Sanford winner Maybesomaybenot..

Most Likely: #4 Expecting Cash 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Derivative 9-2 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #6 Maybesomaybenot 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 City Cool 3-1 2nd

10th: Unbridled Sidney, 3+, 5f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Oh good! Another turf sprint, and a stake this time. Actually seems formful..

Most Likely: #2 Wild About Marie 5-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Hungry Tigress 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Little Polka Dot 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Speedacious 8-1 3rd

11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Second Street City 4-1 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #2 Miss Woods 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Wild Tizzy 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Bond’s Babe 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Oddity 12-1 6th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-3-8
8: 3-6-8-10
9: 4-5
10: 2-4
11: 2-5-6

3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-6-8-10
9: 4-5-6
10: 1-2-4-8
11: 2-5-6

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (2/3/7/9/10-5-1-5) 4 Correct Paid $131.00 x 2 = $262.00

Good day of racing Wednesday at Belmont with a great deal of success on the first half of the card as the $240+ early P4 and a $70 overlay P3 on races 2-4 helped build a nice cushion. Tough to find $60 winner of the 6th derailed the late P4. Hope you did well!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$515k P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #8 Donnaguska 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Dreymore 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gaelic Lass 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #11 Lookslikelove 12-1 6th

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Muhaaseb 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Gypsy Wind 3-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Awesome Review 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #8 Devine Revelation 5-1 8th

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Patine 7-2 8th
Best Value: #3 Little Bit Tiny 12-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Anabaa’s Fortune 9-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #5 She Can Fly 4-1 5th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cherry Included 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Rollin Jai Jai 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Starkey 6-1 9th
Super Add: #9 China Melissa 8-1 7th

9th: CLM, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Parioli’s Trick 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Free Brave 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Lookn Mighty Fast 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Tangled Sheets 4-1 WON ($13.20)

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

$220k Hi-5 Carryover..

Most Likely: #7 Tactical Man 4-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Miami Rockstar 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cowboy Sam 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Waylon’s Ghost 20-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Blue Solitude 6-1 3rd

<$100 Super Hi-5 Play:

A: 7
B: 4-6
C: 3-4-6
D: 3-4-6-7-9
E: All

1x2x2x3x7 = $84

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 7-8-12
6: 4-9
7: 3-4
8: 3
9: 3-5
10: 4-7

3x2x2x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-7-11
8: 3-6
9: 1-3-5
10: 3-4-6-7-9

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

$107k .50 P5 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Roulette It Roll 5-2 –
Best Value: #3 Desperate Measures 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 Meter Me Gone 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Diamond Journey 12-1 4th

2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 All the Love 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #3 Moonstruck Maya 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Going for a Spin 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #5 Miss Mittagong 6-1 5th

3rd: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$91k $2 P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Gogi 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Vicki Victoria 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Dolphin Bay 7-2
Super Add: #9 Molly’s All Heart 3-1

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Party Ruler 4-1 –
Next Best: #8 Free From My Ex 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 You Little Devil 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Nisus 5-2 WON ($12.20)

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Vikkilee 2-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Marrymeonemoretime 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Entabeni 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Sleep Tight 7-2 WON ($9.40)

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-5
2: 3-4
3: 2-4-5
4: 6-8
5: 2-3-8-9

3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Afleet Deal 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gallant Gent 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Star Nicholas 6-1 2nd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Kate’s Event 9-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Cigar Man 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Burj Dubai 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Uh Oh Bango 5-2 WON ($8.00)

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gutshot Straight 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Gifted Student 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Cabo San Lucas 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Smokin Bomb 15-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 4-5
4: 6
5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 3

2x1x4x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 2-3

4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Mr. Ryder 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #5 Day of Destiny 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Slambino 6-1 3rd

2nd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interestring group with no distinct pecking order. You could do worse than taking ashot on Contessa with the added Castellano goodness..

Best Value: #4 Latin Rocks 5-1 WON ($8.70)
Next Best: #7 Gin Cat 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Persian Lime 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Weak Dollar Policy 8-1 4th

$1 Double (4/4) Paid $13.30

3rd: NYSS Park Avenue, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Fun state-bred group with 7-5 fave obvious horse to beat. But after that, the pair of Ubilio runners (#4 Warrior Up & #7 With a Cape) both have good looks that can boost the exotics. The key is keeping Jacobson second timer (#1 Wishingonastar) out of the triple..

Most Likely: #3 Darrin’s Dilemma 7-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #7 With a Cape 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Freuds Ana Streak 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Warrior Up 10-1 3rd

$1 Pick 3 (4/4/3) Paid $26.00

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Yet another race that helps make this card such a nice weekday treat..

Most Likely: #2 Apple Charlotte 2-1 4th
Best Value: #3 La Cloche 6-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #4 Blue Angel 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Dynazapper 5-1 5th

$1 Pick 3 (4/3/3) Paid $69.50

5th: MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Take a good look at who these maidens have faced collectively: Flashpoint, Little Mike, Global Power, Cal Nation, Break Up the Game, Free Entry, Escort, Derby Kitten, et al..

Most Likely: #5 Jack London 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 Late SCR
Best Value: #4 Clear Out 6-1 WON ($5.50)
Super Add: #7 Cold Precision 15-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4-7
3: 2-3-7
4: 2-3-4-6
5: 4-5-6/SCR

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (4/3/3/4) Paid $241.75

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Doublespeak 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Major Bloom 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #3 Buddy Red 7-2 4th

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Struggling here as race has feel of chaos with vulnerable favorites and potential for some jump up efforts..

Best Value: #8 Haya’s Boy 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Our Eli 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Mazara Del Vallo 15-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Sound of Drums 10-1 3rd

8th: Waldoboro, 3+, 6f (DD)

Garden variety Grade III race disguised as an overnight; Note that one of the Pompa entrymates will SCR; KMc (#5 Trappe Shot) is usually very strong with these kinds of layoffs, but can’t blame those going against if the thinking is that this is simply a comebacker with an eye on bigger fish that lie ahead; #2 Deputy Daney (15-1) is an intriguing item in here as perhaps the purest of the speeds, and if left to himself, might take them deep into the race under clever-in-this-role Cornelio..

Most Likely: #3 Rule by Night 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Trappe Shot 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #2 Deputy Daney 15-1 4th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #10 Reproduction 8-1 –
Next Best: #2 Exonerated 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Tidal Slam 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #11 Ushuaia 6-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-8/SCR-9
7: 1-4-5-6-8-9
8: 3-5
9: 2-9-10-11

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

After all the rotten weather in the Bluegrass for the fortnight leading up to this great weekend, Oaks Day at the Downs ended up a magical afternoon from every perspective. A huge crowd of 110,000 thronged the old plant under a brilliant sky, and the racing provided plenty of thrills and popular winners.

For the second year in a row, the Oaks and its’ finish were as thrilling as you could possibly imagine, and as with Evening Jewel a year ago, the result fell a little bit short for me on many tickets. St. John’s River (16-1) was a filly I lauded repeatedly leading up to Friday based on her excellent a.m. appearances, and Andy Leggio’s Include miss harrowingly threatened Bob Baffert’s Plum Pretty in the final strides thanks to a brilliant Rosie Napravnik ride. But for the second time in three years, it was a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro winning the distaffing side of the sophomore classic, providing Baffert with his second win in the race (Silverbulletday). The $130k Peachtree purchase stalked pacesetter Summer Soiree from the outset of the Oaks, and her performance staying on while other front end attendees backed up, confirmed the legitimacy of her runaway effort in the Sunland Oaks last month.

Baffert also beat me in the other leg of the late P4 that I missed, when First Dude ended his reputation as a near-misser annexing the Alysheba in a 6 horse scrambling thriller. The play throughout the card was largely successful, if slightly chalky, with a few key horses generating big returns. In addition to the first pair of P4’s ($202 and $94), the American Turf and Edgewood provided the quality hits you look for on a day like Friday, with $312 and $159 triples respectively. In both cases, it was the runner up that made the mutuels attractive as Neil Howard’s Close Ally (14-1) got up behind Tom Proctor’s favored Banned (3-1) in the Turf, while Ken McPeek’s Sassy’s Dream (9-1) chased home Dale Romans’ Diva Ash (7-2) in the Edgewood. (Sassy’s Dream was of course the filly we hooted about on ATR after she thumped Niji’s Grand Girl in a workout.)

All told, it was a good start to the weekend, and I hope you did well. Let’s get to Saturday’s deep card and the main event!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

SCR/CHG’S

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 BIND 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Supreme Ruler 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Worldly 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #3 Eddie Set Go 12-1 5th

3rd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Golden Triumph 4-1 6th
Next Best: #4 C J Russell 5-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #9 Tyrus 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Quick Recovery 15-1 4th

4th:OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Persuading 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Perfect Shirl 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Snow Top Mountain 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #3 Shameless 20-1 4th

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Saratoga Red 3-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Depeche Chat 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Lee Chapel 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Chasing Moonlight 12-1 9th

@$50 ($1) P4 Play:

2: 2
3: 2-4-7-9
4: 1-3-4-7-8-9-10
5: 2-4

1x4x7x2 = $56

6th: 17th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like Chamberlain Bridge isn’t where he was for so long. OK as exotics include, but as much as I love him and respect Calhoun, you have to play against as winner at very low tote..

Most Likely: #3 Custom for Carlos 3-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Regally Ready 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Bridgetown 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Early Return 12-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 3rd

7th:25th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

The question coming out of Florida frequently regards whether Team Todd runners will hold form. Hilda’s Passion was sensational winning the ‘Bertie and Inside Info, but you don’t know when those performances are going to manifest themselves with a tailoff. Respect her of course, but be open to options..

Most Likely: #7 Hilda’s Passion 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Evening Jewel 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Amen Hallelujah 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Shotgun Gulch 6-1 5th

P4 Play Options ($12-$96):

4: 3-4-7-8 (1-5-9-10)
5: 2-4
6: 2-3-8
7: 7 (3-4-5)

MAIN: 4x2x3x1 = $24 ($1 OR $12 FOR .50)
FULL: 8x2x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

(SPREAD OR APPLY BACKUPS IN 4th AND 7th BASED ON YOUR BUDGET)

8th: 26th Churchill Ditaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Besides today’s feature, this race feels like the day’s best opportunity for an exotics score-o. I’ll include the lower priced options of course, but I’m willing to be wrong using horses like Vance’s Kiss Mine (20-1) and Wilkes’ Vivo Per Lei (30-1) for their potential to set off fireworks. That 10-1 on Fantasia is yet another amusing ML. Will be happy getting 50% of that..

Most Likely: #7 Fantasia 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Kiss Mine 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Aruna 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gate SCR

9th: 77th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

This is a strategic rest stop in the late action P-X races, as a place to try to isolate/minimize your multiples. I think Apriority is very tough here and will lean heavily on him, but Regal Ransom’s excellent Alysheba try Friday flatters ‘Candy’, and you want to use him with the top pick to get through multis..

Most Likely: #3 Apriority 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Capt. Candyman Can 9-2 4th
Best Value: #12 Here Comes Ben 10-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Mythical Power 10-1 9th

10th: 25th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult edition of this event with everything coming down to trip. Little Mike spiked a fever and is SCR’d, but Citrus Kid seems a certain ‘draw in’ (Caracortado ran Friday and SCR’s) which should keep Get Stormy honest. Use as many as you can afford..

Most Likely: #5 Prince Will I Am 5-1 5th
Best Value: #13 Battle of Hastings 12-1 DNF
Next Best: #12 Court Vision 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Moryba 12-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Stately Victor 30-1 11th

11th: 137th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Has been a great run up to Derby these past 2 weeks, and I hope many have been able to draw conclusions about the race from our ATR coverage. Take a big swing. It’s annually the game’s most unusual race circumstance, and one that is meant to be enjoyed. Good luck and ‘Happy Derby’..

1 Archarcharch (10-1): Hurt by draw but not a death knell either; Has worked aggressively..
2 Brilliant Speed (30-1): Will be back early and stay on; Good candidate for bottom of Super, Hi-5..
3 Twice the Appeal (20-1): Borel destroys any value that was available; Looks good physically..
4 Stay Thirsty (20-1): Remaining Pletcher/Repole hope only modestly talented; Trained forwardly..
5 Decisive Moment (30-1): Nice horse and nice story for 50+yo Kerwin Clark; Also-ran..
6 Comma to the Top (30-1): Almost certain as pacesetter; Hard to conceive of finish in top half of chart..
7 Pants On Fire (20-1): Breen/Hall/Napravnik player hard to knock, but hard to see above minor share..
8 Dialed In (4-1): Those doubting fitness status likely misjudging conditioner that’s won this twice..
9 Derby Kitten (30-1): Favorite among clockers to be last..
10 Twinspired (30-1): Being ignored and one of the interesting prices that can invade exotics at big number..
11 Master of Hounds (30-1): Being adopted by those searching for path in chaotic race; Will let him beat me..
12 Santiva (30-1): Getting late discussion as clever horse, but board hit would surprise even Kenneally..
13 Mucho Macho Man (12-1): Story too good to be true; Looks wonderful & certain to run his race. Using..
14 Shackleford (12-1): Committed to this hard running red early last week and sticking with; The choice..
15 Midnight Interlude (10-1): J-T combo copped ’02 running of this; Going right way and worth including..
16 Animal Kingdom (30-1): Had maybe best pre-Derby machinations; Johnny V. inherits mount. Hmmm..
17 Soldat (12-1): Drew ideally for clear run; Sets up shop on backstretch and takes some catching. Using..
— SCR
19 Nehro (6-1): “Too attractive” for my approach having done little in lead up to endorse at short number..
20 Watch Me Go (50-1): Nice horse and happy for O’Connell to get here. Hard to suggest for tickets..

As discussed on ATR and in the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide, I’ll key Shackleford in the top 3 slots in exactas and trifectas with those below (and likely Archarcharch). Odds listed are ML and overnight/current..

Best Value: #14 SHACKLEFORD (12-1/21-1) 4th
Next Best: #17 Soldat (12-1/17-1) 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Dialed In (4-1/5-1) 8th
Super Add: #16 Animal Kingdom (30-1/23-1) WON ($43.80)
Hi-5 Play: #13 Mucho Macho Man (12-1/12-1) 3rd
Also Include: #15 Midnight Interlude (10-1/10-1) 16th

<$50 P5 P6 Play:

7: 7
8: 6-7-10
9: 3-6
10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-14-16-17

1x3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$100 P4 Play:

8: 5-6-7-8-10-11
9: 3-6
10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-14-16-17

6x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 De Price 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Firm Resolve 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Streakin Mohican 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 After Shock 4-1 5th

13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Gentle Tap 3-1 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #3 Shrill 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shotgun Shine 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Totemtale 8-1 9th

<$100 P4 Play:

10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-13-14-15-16-17
12: 4-6
13: 1-2-3-5

4x6x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $92

Two weeks at Churchill has passed by rapidly, and a great weekend of racing is upon us. Hope you have enjoyed At the Races coverage of Oaks-Derby 137, and feel prepared to attack one of the more challenging two days of handicapping and wagering of the year… Steve Crist, Rich Migliore, Mike Welsch, Gus Alonso, Nick Tammaro, Rick Hammerle, Alex Waldrop and others join me today to put the final touches on our 2 weeks in the ‘ville. Good luck and enjoy Oaks-Derby!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

SCR/CHG’S (EARLY)

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Expresso Run 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Empress of Gold 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Virtously 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Tropic of Aquarius 5-2 3rd

2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Minister Colin 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Chalice 10-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #9 Our Noble Heart 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Gold Trader 4-1 5th

3rd: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Juanita 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #4 Goodnessgraciousme 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Golden Phoenix 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Silent Spin 6-1 7th

4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Turallure 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Deal Making 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Pickapocket 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Guys Reward 4-1 WON ($6.60)

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Temptation Bound 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Garnet Crystal 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Might 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #2 Kit Carson 8-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7-10
3: 4-5-6
4: 1-3-4-8-9
5: 2-3-5-8-9

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

.50 P4 (10-6-9-9) Paid $202.10

6th: 26th La Troienne (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Unrivaled Belle 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Blind Luck 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Quiet Giant 10-1 6th
Super Add: #4 All Due Respect 6-1 3rd

7th: 26th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Diva Ash 8-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Sassy’s Dream 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Smart Sting 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 My Redbyrd 8-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-8-9
5: 2-3-5-8-9-10
6: 7-8
7: 2-6-8

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 Pick 4 (9/9/2,7/2) Paid $93.85

8th: 56th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Victoria’s Wildcat 12-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #3 Pomeroys Pistol 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #1 Arienza 4-1 –
Super Add: #2 Home Sweet Aspen 8-1 2nd

9th: 8th Alysheba (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Thoroughly crazy group..

Best Value: #1 Wise Dan 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Caracortado 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Mission Impazible 7-2 7th
Super Add: #11 Regal Ransom 4-1 2nd

10th: 20th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

That’s quite an embarrassing morning line on Swagger Jack..

Best Value: #10 Swagger Jack 50-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Close Ally 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #13 Air Support 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Banned 3-1 WON ($8.00)

11th: 137th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5, Oaks-Derby Dbl, Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3)

Great group of 3yo fillies was made into a terrific betting race with R Heat Lightening exiting the picture. While the last two weeks has shown the lineup in a mostly positive light, nothing has been more impressive visually than Joyful Victory lugging Larry Jones’ large carcass around the oval daily at a 2 min. clip. It’s impossible not to think of Proud Spell while watching her train these 2 weeks. She’s not as talented, but she’s certainly ready for a premium effort. Is it good enough to win?

The Fair Grounds Oaks fillies have impressed me daily. Daisy Devine (McKeever) and St. John’s River (Leggio) are 20-1 and 30-1 respectively, and should both outrun their odds. The poor draw for Leggio’s girl (#13) is a downer. McKeever’s filly, bought for $4,500, needs to make up 3-5 lengths to win against 3-4 of these, so she may be best employed as an exotic lynchpin.

We haven’t had the luxury of seeing Zazu much locally, but what I got to see was pretty eye-opening. If she runs back to the last, she’s a prime win player. And of course speaking of running back to her last, Plum Pretty will factor if the Sunland Oaks is reprized. She’s looked good here and was particularly good over the wet going.

Summer Soiree was a horse I came in not liking, but she has been sharp acting in the a.m., and was nearly impossible for the girl to pull up after her gallop Wednesday. Literally. It took the female exercise rider a quarter mile to stop the Team Valor missy. Kathmanblu has done nothing wrong at all these 2 weeks, and kept wheeling away from the gap today as Walter Blum tried to take her home.

Bouquet Booth has been much better than her Margo barnmate Street Storm, and I’m surprised in fact that Street Storm was entered here. Haven’t seen much of the Bobby Flay acquisition Her Smile on track, but schooling in the paddock she showed herself to be a substantial, rangy gal. Todd Pletcher said she seems like a real nice filly so far.

Speedy Smithwick’s Suave Voir Faire may be outclassed on paper, but she is a big powerful looking thing that moves like she is willing to bully foes. Holy Heavens and Lilacs and Lace have been adequate, but haven’t called attention to themselves the way you like a horse to in the proceedings. Best of luck! Should be a very fun Oaks!

Most Likely: #1 Joyful Victory 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Zazu 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Summer Soiree 5-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Daisy Devine 20-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #13 St. John’s River 30-1 2nd

<$50 Oaks Derby Double Play:

KO: 1-3-4-6-9-12-13
KD: 8-13-14-15-16-17

7×6 = $42

<$50 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Play:

KO: 1-3-6-9
WR: 4-5-9-10
KD: 8-13-14-15-16-17

4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-8
8: 1-3-8
9: 1-2
10: 1-3-10-13
11: 1-3-6

2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4-8
9: 1-2
10: 1-2-3-10-13
11: 1-3-6

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Air Guitar 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 How She Rolls 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Cascadilla Falls 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Spoils 5-1 7th