BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$30k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #1 Longhammer 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Big Blue Kitten 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Freshman Dorm 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Eleven Final Fours 5-1 6th

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Just 7 here but a very dangerous portion of difficult P6 sequence..

Best Value: #6 Artie’s Chapter 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Monte Carlo 2-1 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Forty Prayers 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Hot Minute 5-2 4th

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Bond fave #3 Rocky F faced serious horses in his Florida unveiling including G2 Dixie participant Slews Answer and ALW winners Gathering Cloud and Silver Rock. 4+ months off, but looks dominant here if close to ready. Plenty of choices for underneath to add value though, and Weaver’s 15-1 Appian Way has some sibling strength hinting at grass prowess despite the lousy effort first time on weeds..

Most Likely: #3 ROCKY F 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #5 Appian Way 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Rumbletown 4-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Raffie’s Choice 12-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Another good and tricky race with some distinct contenders and a lurking Lisa Lewis returnee (#8 Untamed Glory 2nd) that should scare the bejeezus out you..

Most Likely: #4 Chalk Player 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #9 Bretton Woods 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 My Man Nell 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Grandma 10-1 7th

9th: 53rd Sheepshead Bay (G2), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD)

Six betting interests and it sure feels like at least 5 can win with the Biancone entry the lone suspects… not a welcome addition to the already daunting sequence(s). As brought up Friday on ATR, you should always feel comfortable forgiving seemingly inexplicable ‘off’ efforts over the Keeneland turf, as it is not a surface that every lawn loper loves. Under that premise, La Luna de Miel (5-2) commands respect..

Most Likely: #6 La Luna de Miel 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Cheetah 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Hibaayeb 2-1 WON ($4.90)

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

So.. You made it to the nightcap and are ‘alive’. Be prepared for agony unless you can cover about 6 in here. Brutal end to a challenging card. Note that Rumbletown (See 7th above) exits the same race as second out Hurricane Hill. Doesn’t the brother of the great Wonder Again (#6 Wonder Beyond) have to get it done at some point?

Best Value: #7 Elusive Male 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Wonder Beyond 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Hurricane Hill 6-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Christmas Punch 6-1 WON ($12.80)

<$150 P5 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-9
6: 2-3-6-7
7: 3
8: 4
9: 3-4-6
10: 6-7

3x4x1x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 P6 Conso (5 of 6) Paid $25.00 x 2 = $50.00

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3
8: 3-4-6-8-9
9: 2-3-4-5-6
10: 4-6-7-10

1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50

.50 P4 (3-4-3-10) Paid $77.10

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Helluva good race..

Best Value: #8 Lady Jadana 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Media Madness 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Breaking Promises 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Paoli Princess 10-1 4th

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Garnet Crystals 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #6 Eye Opener 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Goodnessgraciousme 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Golden Phoenix 7-2 3rd

9th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Lake Creek 5-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Shrill 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #7 D’marin 10-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Son of a General 8-1 4th

10th: 74th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Good edition of this standard with both faves having issues that provide caution. Noble Keertana (2-1) faces males but doesn’t enjoy much benefit at the scales, and 9yo stalwart Musketier has to deal with ground loss issues from the 10 hole..

Best Value: #3 Guys Reward 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Keertana 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Musketier 9-5 5th
Super Add: #9 Bearpath 8-1 2nd

11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Wild Tizzy 3-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Perfect Shadow 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Smokinlisa 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lov Toc 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Hi-5 Play: #8 Wildcat Jillee 10-1 4th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-5-6-7-8
8: 2
9: 1-3-7
10: 3-4-9-10
11: 1-7

5x1x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 2-6
9: 1-3-7
10: 3-4-9-10
11: 1-2-5-7

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

.50 P4 (2-1-4-2) Paid $77.10

ARLINGTON PARK — STAKES SPOT PLAY

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: 77th Arlington Classic, 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

As great a betting affair as you’ll see with a variety of overlays nearly guaranteed by the underlaid ML on Willcox Inn (3-1) and Extensive (7-2). As discussed on Friday ATR with his trainer Ian Wilkes, #3 Fort Larned ran his best career race on grass and should have an ideal trip. 15-1 might not hold, but you’re certain to have at least a $20 horse to work around by post time. This is a ‘swing for the fences’ race..

Best Value: #3 FORT LARNED 15-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Suntracer 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Forbidden Forest 15-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Legendary King 20-1 6th

.50 TRIFECTA PLAY:

3 with 1-2-4-7 with 1-2-4-6-7-9-12 (1x4x6 = 24 x .50 = $12)

Animal Kingdom was certainly honorable in defeat, and loomed a winner midstretch despite being left with too much to do. As mentioned over the fortnight, I thought Shackleford might have dug in even more gamely in the Derby had the challengers been in his field of vision. In the Preakness, the Forestry chestnut rebuffed Astrology’s inside challenge at the top of the lane and immediately answered Animal Kingdom with a spurt forward when that rival came up to him in deep stretch. I expect his win should send the ‘soft trip beneficiary’ naysayers into the shadows.

Shack’s win tote was nice and the $114 exacta was generous, but Astrology buried my own tri/super prospects. The Stonestreet/Bolton ran a good race and got a clever ‘save every inch’ ride from Smitty. It was a satisfying end to a very fun day and I hope everyone did well! Focus turns to New York with the Met Mile and Belmont Weekend less than one and three weeks away, and a $43k P6 C/O available to start the raceweek..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Karakorum Budman 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Wascally Rabbit 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mystic Era 12-1 WON ($7.10)

3rd: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Just 6 but tricky and interesting after excluding Cautionary Tale..

Most Likely: #3 Does It Every Time 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Victoria Lynn 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Alseera 2-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #4 Tempest Storm 7-2 3rd

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$43k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #3 Bustin Rocks 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #6 Rocky Fortune 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Cool Operator 8-1 3rd

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Storm On the Moon 3-1 Eased
Exotics Use: #3 Don’t Fooli Houli 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Targhee Pass 5-1 WON ($11.00)

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6
3: 1-2-3-4-6
4: 3
5: 3-4-8

3x5x1x3 = $45

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Don’t resign yourself here to the two glaring players. Yes, #1 Bluember and #9 Philly Ace (half to Slambino!) have an edge, but #2 Dynamite Dude and #3 Storm Pursuit deserve long looks, and #4 Break the Glass from white hot Goldberg appear capable. Then note that Clement/Live Oak unveil #8 Za Approval, a half to the wonderful 20X winner (14 stakes) Revved Up and BC Mile winner Miesque’s Approval..

Most Likely: #1 Bluember 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Dynamite Dude 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Storm Pursuit 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Philly Ace 3-1 WON ($6.60)

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

This is a treacherous spot if 9yo I’ve Got Speed doesn’t run his typical race..

Most Likely: #1 I’ve Got Speed 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 New Yawker 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 I Ain’t No Saint 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Our Friend Harvey 8-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Arnell 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Devon Rock 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 (POE) Capital Market 2-1 2nd/4th
Super Add: #7 Sky Blazer 4-1 3rd

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Fun betting affair..

Best Value: #2 Australis Princess 5-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Rage of Aquarius 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 It’s Not for Love 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Much Fanfare 4-1 WON ($9.60)

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 4-8
6: 1-2-3-9
7: 1
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-7-8

1x2x4x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-9
7: 1-3-4
8: 1-2-6
9: 1-2-7-8

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Despite hitting only one of the 3 P4/P5 opps, it was a very solid start to the Maryland Weekend festivities Friday. The weather cooperated and another excellent day is anticipated for racing second stop on the Triple Crown trail. Bill Mott got Royal Delta a nice sophomore merit with a Black-Eyed Susan win, and the $53 triple was a shocking gift from the 5 horse set. Suzzona ($9.80) keyed an exotics sweep in the Very One after the feature. Other than stupidly omitting Southern Sweetie from the 6th, the day produced a number of OK returns, and I hope you did well. Preakness Day arrives, and while not as big as Derby two weeks ago, it should be a superb afternoon. Hope you feel well-prepared by ATR’s coverage, and enjoy the action from Old Hilltop!

PIMLICO RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 19th Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Payton d’Oro 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Life at Ten 4-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Decelerator 5-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Super Espresso 10-1 WON ($24.20)

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (.50 P4, .50 P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Princess Malka 9-2 8th
Best Value: #12 Cagey Act 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Toni’s the One 5-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #1 Belarus 8-1 3rd

6th: 36th Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Ghost is Clear 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Escort 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Vengeful Wildcat 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #2 Chipshot 10-1 2nd

7th: 46th James Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (.50 P3, DD, Super)

There is absolutely nothing about Joes Blazing Aaron in here that merits his favoritism or you being obligated to respect his presence. He’s not better than the next 6 on the ML. He can win if absolutely everything goes his way on the front end. You want that at 5-2 from the 10 hole?

Best Value: #4 Lil Bit O’Fun 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Master Dunker 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Humble and Hungry 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Chinglish 10-1 WON ($19.60)

8th: MD Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (.50 P3, .50 P5, DD, Super)

Ventana owns a company line edge and I’m singling him in the P4, but there’s something about this race that feels slippery..

Most Likely: #5 Ventana 8-5 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #3 Nathan’s H Q 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Safety Check 9-2 7th
Super Add: #2 Heritage Hall 15-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-7-8-11-12-13-14
6: 1-4-5
7: 1-2-4-5-9-10
8: 5

8x3x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 CENT Pick 4 (11-5/7-2-5) Paid $426.90

9th: 60th Gallorette H. (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, .50 P3, DD, Super)

Handicap in an authentic sense as noted Friday by Graham Motion on ATR as Shared Account lays 8-13 pounds to her rivals here. That’s significant weight given that a few of her opponents are forward-going and already within about three lengths of her..

Most Likely: #6 Shared Account 4-5 4th
Best Value: #7 Desert Sage 5-1 2nd-DH
Exotics Use: #8 Dyna Waltz 5-1 2nd-DH
Super Add: #2 No Explaining 4-1 WON ($8.80)

10th: 24th Wm. Donald Schaefer (G3), 3+, 8.5f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Race that launched Blame’s ’10 HOY season again features a nice assembly of eclectic talent. As long as Eighttofasttocatch (cross-entered in the Dixie) keeps Colizeo honest on the pace, Apart figures to sit a garden trip..

Most Likely: #2 Apart 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #4 SCR
Next Best: #8 Colizeo 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Ichabad Crane 4-1 3rd

11th: 110th Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Nice to have Paddy O’Prado back in action, and as Dale Romans told the ATR audience Friday, he should come back running. I wouldn’t bet Contessa (Grand Rapport) in a spot like this with money I found in the street..

Most Likely: #4 Paddy O’Prado 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #7 Pocket Patch 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Baryshnikov 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Slews Answer 6-1 5th

12th: 136th Preakness S. (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Sure feels like a Preakness where you go in wanting to doubt the Derby winner, but will immediately acknowledge his merits if he wins here with any aplomb..

1 Astrology (Smith/Asmussen) 15-1: Needs to gain early position; Not for him, not against him.. 3rd
2 Norman Asbjornson (Pimentel/Grove) 30-1: Note old school worktab; Solid citizen a board threat.. 11th
3 King Congie (Albarado/Albertrani) 20-1: Albertrani presents Brillaint Speed 2.0; Deep exotics filler.. 7th
4 Flashpoint (Velasquez/Ward) 20-1: Now with Ward, seems certain pacesetter, but how far can he stay? 14th
5 Shackleford (Castanon/Romans) 12-1: Derby tab loomed a winner before tiring; Still in peak form.. WON
6 Sway Away (Gomez/Bonde) 15-1: Many landing here, but still not convinced he wants classic trips.. 12th
7 Midnight Interlude (Garcia M/Baffert) 15-1: No Lookin at Lucky, but likely to be better at overlay odds.. 13th
8 Dance City (Dominguez/Pletcher) 12-1: Owns buzz thanks to gritty Arky run; The one to catch late? 5th
9 Mucho Macho Man (Maragh/Ritvo) 6-1: Thriving and more than any, certain to run his race.. 6th
10 Dialed In (Leparoux/Zito) 9-2: Tighter for this but hard not to wonder whether he’s too slow early.. 4th
11 Animal Kingdom (Velazquez J/Motion) 2-1: Derby hero gets chance to earn marks as special horse.. 2nd
12 Isn’t He Perfect (Prado/Shivmangal) 30-1: Over-achiever gets jock upgrade; Hi-5 bottom a target.. 9th
13 Concealed Identity (Russell/Gaudet) 30-1: Baltimore’s version of Archarcharch drew nearly as poorly.. 10th
14 Mr. Commons (Espinoza/Shirreffs) 20-1: Was eager to use but slot a disaster with ground-loss rider.. 8th

Most Likely: #11 Animal Kingdom 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Mucho Macho Man 6-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Dance City 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Shackleford 12-1 WON ($27.20)
Super/Hi-5: #3 King Congie 30-1 7th

<$50 P5 Play:

8: 3-5
9: 6-7-8
10: 2-4-5-8
11: 4
12: 8-9-11

2x3x4x1x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 6-7-8
10: 2-4-5-8
11: 4-5-6-7
12: 8-9-11

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Challenging Saturday at Belmont, unless you’re Andy Serling, as tricky horses piled up sending the P6 carryover to a second day at just under $100,000. Serling meanwhile delivered most of the day’s non-favorite winners including the $20 nightcap score-o. Today may prove especially slippery given the weather uncertainty. I’m occupied at the University of Rochester graduation ceremonies with Tina’s son Spencer, and doubt I’ll get to many adjustments later this afternoon. Follow Andy’s lead… At Churchill, things went much more our way catching the $130+ P4 twice (late SCR = fave), and other exotics including nightcap tri ($124) and super ($326). Unfortunately left the stake winner (3rd choice Little Polka Dot) off the .50 Pick Five play which paid a handsome $1,000. Hope you did well! Here’s the BEL P6 skein, and let’s hope the rain doesn’t screw up the first half of the sequence…

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Grace and Courage 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #11 Fleeting Glance 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Eve of Destruction 4-1 WON ($12.20)
Super Add: #3 Winged Bandit 8-1 2nd

OFF THE TURF: 10-12-3

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Catty Madeline 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Risky Gamble 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Hey Babe 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Super Add: #10 Gentle Ride 5-1 6th

OFF THE TURF: 1e-12-11

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Hoopskirt 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Must Be Love 3-2 WON ($8.10)
Exotics Use: #5 She Drives Me Wild 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Leonessa 6-1 5th

OFF THE TURF: 3-10-11

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

This is a very curious, and unsettling, fire sale on Cravin Caden. P6 players will be singling, and if you’re on a budget, you pretty much have to. But would you be dumbstruck if he faultered?

Most Likely: #1 Cravin Caden 3-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #4 Enable 6-1 4th
Super Add: #6 McGee’s Miracle 12-1 3rd

9th: One Count, 3+, 10f (DD)

Interesting assembly with winter wonder Inherit the Gold facing off against ’10 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer and ’10 Withers hero Afleet Again going a classic route of ground. Other Mott player Birdrun is a horse that has latent talent, and capable Rodney Jenkins ships up with consistent Edgewater. Finally, Pletcher offers the regularly well-spotted Alma d’Oro. Tricky event..

Most Likely: #2 Inherit the Gold 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Birdrun 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Edgewater 5-1 6th

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (Super)

Best Value: #8 Coaltown Legend 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Able Bellamy 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Roaring Conquest 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Common Currency 15-1 9tb

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-10-11 (OTT: 3-10-12)
6: 2-9 (OTT: 1e-11-12)
7: 3-10 (OTT: 3-10)
8: 1
9: 2-6
10: 1-8-12

3x2x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$25/$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-10 (OTT: 3-10)
8: 1
9: ALL
10: 1-6-8-12

2x1x6x4 = $48 (Or $24 for .50)