POST-SCRATCHES

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Rather salacious state bred group going for its’ first level hurdle here to start the P4, and this might be the day’s best individual betting race. Southbeachsandy gets slight nod as the one to beat, but there are three juicy prices in Roaring Conquest (10-1), Here Comes Vinny (30-1) and Artie Luvsto Party (8-1) that tempt and tease. Suggesting a tri play below getting Here Comes Vinny into the money, but use your own approach making sure to liberally include the longshots..

#2 Roaring Conquest has SCR’D..

Most Likely: #3  Southbeachsandy 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Here Comes Vinny 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Artie Luvsto Party 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Bigger is Bettor 4-1 3rd

<$15 TRI PLAY: 3 with 1-2-4-5-8 with 6 (1x5x1 = 5 x $2 = 10) & 3 with 6 with 1-2-4-5-8 (1x1x5 = $5) = $15

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky turf sprint with 3 firsters and some well-bred underachievers signed on..

Best Value: #9 Houliana 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Amirahy 4-1 WON-DH ($2.70)
Exotics Use: #8 Big Apple Lady 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Turbo Tweaked 8-1 3rd

9th: 61st Vagrancy H. (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Hilda’s Passion obvious towers over this group if close to her best, but there is the conceivable chance that she is tailing off after the enormous performances in Florida. Tidal Pool, Erin Rose, Kid Kate or Streaker would have to improve — nee, run their career best — to beat the favorite here. That makes it difficult to approach Hilda’s Passion as anything other than a ‘single’, especially with the Belmont main playing kindly to speed..

Most Likely: #2 Hilda’s Passion 3-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #5 Tidal Pool 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Erin Rose 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Streaker 4-1 4th

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

NOTE: #13 Kaz Dear (20-1) drew in and is worth including in the multis and exotics..

Most Likely: #9 Bobity Boo 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #1 Song for Pupcake 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Frazzie 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Erma Lee 5-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-6-8
8: 3-4-9
9: 2
10: 1-4-9-12-13

5x3x1x5 = $75

$1 Pick 4 (1-3-2-9) Paid $30.75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Big and suspicious drop on 3-1 fave Blushing Romeo. Nickel claimers a tough way to start the P5..

Best Value: #6 Chesapeake Bay 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Blushing Romeo 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Saviano 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Bad Jenna Lee 15-1 11th

8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Many notable sisters of stars here including Shackleford/Afleeting Lady, Rated Fiesty/Time Counts, Seeking the Title/Ensign’s Soul and Here Comes Ben (runs in 10th)/Gottahaveadream..

Most Likely: #6 Empress of Gold 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Gottahaveadream 8-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Time Counts 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Lightshaft 4-1 8th

9th: 37th Dogwood (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, Dd, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Fantasy of Flight 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Might 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Gran Lioness 4-1 3rd

10th: 23rd Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Capt. Candyman Can 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Here Comes Ben 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Cash Refund 4-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Riley Tucker 8-1 5th

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Cascadilla Falls 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #10 Private Offering 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Knysna 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Open Agenda 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Groupie Doll 15-1 8th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 1-6-7-10
8: 2-4-6-9
9: 1-5
10: 1-3-5
11: 8
4x4x2x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-6-9
9: 1-5
10: 1-3-5
11: 4-8-10

4x2x3x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)

THISTLEDOWN

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 77th Ohio Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

OK group for this with a few players — like Global Power as discussed yesterday on ATR with Chad Brown — showing potential to impact second half of the sophomore season..

Most Likely: #10 Global Power 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Goodtimehadbyall 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Caleb’s Posse 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #4 Le Mans 6-1 5th

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

WO 8th: 56th Nassau (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Never Retreat 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Valli With a Vow 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Miss Keller 5-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Bay to Bay 8-1 WON ($15.10)

As discussed earlier on ATR, a VERY tricky sequence..

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Veiled Prophet 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Monzante 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Pickapocket 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Tutti Buona Gente 5-1 5th

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Numen Lumen 9-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Tennis Racket 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Delvin’s a Hater 7-2 8th
Super Add: #5 Awesome Arceno 4-1 WON ($4.80)

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Southern Star 4-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Eschew Obfuscation 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Sleek Ridge 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Timber Wildcat 3-1 WON ($5.00)

10th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mister Marti Gras 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #7 Future Prospect 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Lonesome Street 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Rockin’ Rockstar 15-1 7th

11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Miss Anfield 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Ali’s Knockout 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 She Can Fly 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Legendary Heart 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Hi-5 Play: #7 Positively Paige 12-1 5th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-3-4
8: 2-5-7-8
9: 2
10: 4-5-7
11: 3-5-8-11

3x4x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5-7-8
9: 2-10
10: 4-5-7
11: 3-5-7-8-10-11

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Unbridled Heat 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Good Prospect 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Unaccountable 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Hoppsey 6-1 7th

7th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Imagine Tomorrow 5-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Outlaw Cody Z 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pam’s Lucky Lady 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Money Magnet 7-2 4th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #3 Xodo 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Colonialism 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Liberty Cap 6-1 6th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5F-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Victoryat Last 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Nurse Dolce 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Centrina 4-1 WON ($12.40)
Super Add: #7 Victoria Pool 12-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-6-8
7: 3-6-7
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-4-5-7

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

P4 single of $1.25-1 Chorus Music didn’t work Sunday at Belmont when Solis found himself pocketed immediately and never was allowed to recover by cleverly handled Gitchee Goomie under Garcia. Other than missing the quad that started there, it was a very good and beautiful afternoon at Elmont with many plays negotiated successfully including a generous $101 tri ($1) in the Kingston when Pocket Cowboys waltzed on the front end under Prado. Hope you did well!

P6 went un-hit somehow, so a $39k carryover is available into Monday’s Met Mile card. Unfortunately, it is teeming rain as I write this, so turf may be in doubt and slop or mud the order of the day. Expect to broadcast from Belmont this morning, and wish everyone a safe and happy Memorial Day. Thoughts turn to those who served and sacrificed all in defense of the liberty we enjoy and cherish.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3 DD, Super)

$39,442 P6 C/O Starts Here..

Bad race with bad horses, but bad horses win bad races. #6 Keyaly’s three tries this year look horrific, but last was on turf and previous pair came over sloppy inner. He’ll be a million to one, and 2nd lifetime effort in December actually competitive in here. Like this gelding, Disanto bred and trained the dam Aly Baghdad, who you may recall as a pretty nice sprinter 10 years ago. Don’t know if he can win, but seems as plausible a concept as any if you want get imaginative..

Most Likely: #1 Buddy Red 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Keyaly 20-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Up Above 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Super Add: #5 Warrior From Above 6-1 7th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Catty Madeline 9-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #7 Gentle Ride 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Karakorum Fugitive 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Fancy Footsteps 8-1 6th

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

You’re wrong as much as you’re right about evaluations like this, but I’m having a hard time seeing what’s so overwhelmingly special about favorites Cosset and Sotique/Tale Untold..

Most Likely: #4 DOMINANT CURRENCY 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Storm Showers 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Cosset 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Christina d’Oro 15-1 2nd

9th: 17th Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Lovely daughter of Memories of Silver Winter Memories is very nice, but she’s not a 3-5 play in here with Naples Bay lurking..

Most Likely: #6 Winter Memories 3-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Naples Bay 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Parting Words 8-1 3rd

10th: 118th Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

One of the great handicap traditions in all of racing, event lost projected favorite Morning Line to barking dog, but still delivers a great betting affair with 11 well-matched runners. Note that 9 of this group are running back from one turn events of 7-8f, with only Tizway and Tackleberry cutting back from a route (9f Charles Town Classic)..

Most Likely: #8 Haynesfield 7-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Tackleberry 6-1 9th
Next Best: #11 Tizway 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #7 Ibboyee 15-1 8th

11th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Tricky end to a challenging sequence, and race made more difficult by unidentifiable pace scenario. Possible that slick 7# bug Curatolo gets easy lead with Jet to Classics, and while faves Midnight Mass and Iron Dancer both have merits, they make returns from layoffs with new and capable conditioners. Tough call on using one, both or neither..

Best Value: #3 Coronation Day 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 King Rock 5-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Deputy’s Citizen 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Jet to Classics 15-1 6th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 2-5-7-11
8: 4
9: 3-6
10: 8-10-11
11: 2-3

2x4x1x2x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4
9: 3-6
10: 7-8-10-11
11: 1-2-3-4-5-7

1x2x4x6 = $48

At Churchill, the chance to boost the parlay on P4 at least was dashed in the feature when neither Bearpath or Guys Reward (both 6-1) could out-photo Proctor’s uber-mare Keertana (3-2) at the end of the dawdling Louisville Handicap. Miguel Mena gave a great ride to Romans’ Guys Reward, backing up the pace onto the hoofs of the field in :54.1, 1:19.1 and 1:45.4 splits. Keertana slipped through an opening off the turn under Jose Lezcano, and fought Guys Reward the rest of the way, but it was Bearpath who was engaging in a rally from last the whole time who was likely best of the trio. Corey Lanerie interfered with Freddie Lenclud and Bearpath’s furious charge, jumping right into their lane at the eighth pole. The momentum Bearpath lost for a quartet of beats undoubtedly was the difference 200 yards later at the wire. I talked to a stoic Ian Wilkes minutes after the race, and the good news for him and the Lothenbach 5yo is that the one run style cultivated with Bearpath seems to be what he wants, and the summer season has plenty of opportunities ahead. Wilkes said he will point toward the Man O’War with him.

Hope everyone did well despite the lack of juicy mutuels. Day 2 of the Holiday Weekend is a glance at the second half of today’s Belmont card which includes a pair of NY bred grass stakes. Dr. Paul Giacopelli’s Loyal Shadow, a half sister to Dee Tee 2yo colt My Pal of Pals (City Zip) whom Paul bred and shares with the stable, makes her black type debut in the Mt. Vernon.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Kinkora 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Home Rule 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1a My Assets 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #5 Expresso Run 7-2 3rd

7th: 33rd Mt. Vernon-NY, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Chorus Music has clear edge on this group, but after that, the the field is interchangeable for Exacta, Tri and Super monies..

Most Likely: #2 Chorus Music 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Paraiba 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Gitchee Goomee 5-2 WON ($6.00)

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Samyn 16/0-0-0 at stand, and Hertler admittedly dreadful off layoffs, (Thoro-Graph trainer stats show 2% W/18% ITM with returnees off 90 days or more), but Considerate is 15-1, working well for return, and gets ideal stalking set-up with plenty of speed in this. It’s a turf sprint and a bit of a weird group. Take a shot..

Best Value: #5 Considerate 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Awakened Beauty 6-1 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #9 Myrtle’s Gray 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Holy Blitzer 8-1 7th

9th: 33rd Kingston-NY, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Interesting group with not much speed making Lubash appear a wire threat under sharp-riding Lezcano..

Best Value: #3 Lubash 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pocket Cowboys 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Spa City Fever 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1a (POE) Uncle T Seven 2-1 8th/(5th)

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Lemon Drop On Top 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #4 Loginova 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Gypsy Preacher 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Snipp 30-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2
8: 3-5-6-8-9-10
9: 1-3-6-7
10: 3-4-8

1x6x4x3 = $72