Fun Friday night as Churchill got back to racing and Prairie Meadows
kicked off their annual 2 day stakes festival. At the Downs, the P6
carry pushed into Saturday thanks to the impossible to find Sahm Like It
Hot in the cheap 7th. As the longest shot on the board ($27.70), the
Brian Williamson Illinois-bred emerged late under bug boy Roman to bust
up all kinds of multi-race plays. Elsewhere on the card, Wine Police and
Buckleup Buttercup both made quality seasonal debuts. Hit the late CD
P4 ($62.15) losing $10 in the process, but getting some overlays into
trifecta in the 6th ($31.40) and 9th ($64.20) helped offset the P6
investment. May or may not chase the $46,700 P6 pot available in
Louisville today.

At Prairie Meadows, the most notable effort came from marvelous 9yo
Ducky Drake as he upset Ventana (3-4) and Atta Boy Roy (3-2) in the
Sprint Handicap at a crazy 13.50-1. As discussed this week, I’ve been
trying a longshot play structure utilizing overlays as keys in the place
and show position, and the approach helped result in a quality saver on
the winner. I placed Ducky Drake both second and third in tris with the
two favorites, and at more than double his morning line, bet him to win
as well. The $29.00 tote was a nice reward considering the frustration
of leaving Chris Hartman’s 20x winner off the P4 play. The ‘longshot
reverse key’ concept was offered up on ATR as an approach on Breeders’
Cup cards by BC tote honcho Ken Kirchner, who is a serious
hanicapper/horseplayer. I will have him back on the show to elaborate
further, but searching for a new wrinkle in my own play, I’ve had a
handful of quality hits with this concept over the last 6-8 weeks.

Hope everyone did OK and are ready for another big raceday!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Put Me First 3-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Dreamingof Lillian 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Kaffiend 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lila Louann 5-2 3rd

6th: New York (G2), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Nothing clever to say here. Best you can do here to make money is try to get La Cloche or Trix in the City into the tri/super..

Most Likely: #7 Hibaayeb 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Zagora 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Giants Play 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #4 La Cloche 10-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Bullet Baby 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Letshootpool 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Mean Reversion 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Valuable Lady 5-1 7th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As discussed Friday on ATR with Nick Tammaro, Midnight Billy is a
horse that is priced right and finally may have the right post and pace
to score out. Unfortunately, he loses the scheduled services of Curatolo
who will be sidelined 2 months with a clavicle fracture suffered
Wednesday..

Best Value: #1 Midnight Billy 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Sky Blue Pink 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Mr. Enrico 20-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Power Dreams 2-1 5th

9th: 55th Mother Goose (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Whatever this historic and important soph filly event lost with the
demuring of Plum Pretty and Royal Delta, has been made up in intrigue
with a fascinating cast of evolving or emerging missies. Hard to fault
KMc’s work this meet, and at anything close to 6-1, Alseera makes sense
sitting either an outside stalking trip or as the one to catch if Garcia
takes command..

Best Value: #7 Alseera 6-1 DNF
Next Best: #4 Joyful Victory 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Salty Strike 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Buster’s Ready 7-2 WON ($9.40)

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

Very curious race, and I’m going to reach for a few quirky players to go with the deserving favorite who draws outside..

Best Value: #3 Dixie Rocks 12-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Bazinga 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Holy Spice 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Notell 10-1 4th

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 6
6: 1-6-7
7: 7-8
8: 1-3
9: 4-7
10: 3-11

1x3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 7-8
8: 1-3
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 2-3-6-9-10-11

2x2x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

PRAIRIE MEADOWS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Iowa Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3)

Daisy Devine is OK as the favorite here, but she’s hardly awe-inspiring..

Most Likely: #5 Daisy Devine 6-5 5th
Best Value: #4 All About Allie 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Hearts On Fire 5-1 2nd

8th: Iowa Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Astrology 9-5 6th
Next Best: #8 Caleb’s Posse 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Sherriff Cogburn 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Prayer for Relief 7-2 WON ($13.60)

9th: Cornhusker H. (G3), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Wonderfully interesting version of this Midwest standard. Hard to draw a line through very many for at least a share..

Best Value: #6 Victory Pete 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Stachys 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Awesome Gem 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Headache 8-1 WON ($11.00)

10th: MDN CLM, 3-5yo, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 South Tulsa County 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Kollege 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Cabo Borracho 4-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Denali Surprise 15-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4-5
8: 5
9: 1-4-6-10
10: 1-4-8

5x1x4x3 = $60 ($30 for .50)

Between the post-tornado Churchill card ($25k P6 C/O), Iowa Destival of Racing kick off at Prairie Meadows and a $65k P6 C/O at Hollywood late night, we have some fun Friday night start to the weekend. Saturday has its’ usual blend of action of course, and Sunday features a fabulous Queens’ Plate card at Woodbine! Hope you enjoy a head-spinningly fast week of ATR and have a big summer season starter weekend!
CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Very pleased that Kenneally gets GSW Bucklupbuttercup, a favorite of mine from her soph season, back to the races. She is the favorite, but both Glowing Report andpace edge candidate Garnet Crystals have good chances..

Best Value: #1 Glowing Report 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Buckleupbuttercup 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Garnet Crystals 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Honchis’n Ponchis 7-2 2nd

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$25k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #7 Krysna 1-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Pray for Grace 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Private Offering 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Miss Matchless 4-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Rack Daddy 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Blackngoldsuprbowl 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Z Winner 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Strong Dream 5-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Wine Police exploded on the Saratoga 2yo scene opening weekend looking like a force to reckon with before an injury exiting the G1 Hopeful placing. Not the easiest spot in which to make a return, and the draw doesn’t help either..

Most Likely: #4 Pistols At Dawn 4-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Indian Council 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Wine Police 5-2 WON ($3.80)

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Francis Gardner 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Stormy Story 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Rock Hard Baby 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 C. S. Royce 3-1 WON ($6.40)

10th: Kelly’s Landing, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Dublin will SCR according to Lukas..

Most Likely: #4 Captain Cherokee 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Here Comes Ben 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #2 Spicer 15-1 6th
Super Add: #5 A Diehl 6-1 3rd

11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Uggh..

Most Likely: #7 Good Question 5-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Shore Breeze Icon 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Geocache 6-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Some Kinda Trouble 9-2 WON ($7.60)
Hi-5 Play: #8 Bravo Whiskey 4-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4-7
7: 7
8: 1-4-6
9: 1-9
10: 4-8
11: 4-7-12

2x1x3x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-7
8: 1-4-6
9: 1-5-7-9
10: 4-8
11: 4-7-12

2x3x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6
9: 1-5-7-9
10: 4-8
11: 1-4-5-7-8-12

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,3,5/3,4,5,8,11,12/8/5) Paid $62.15

PRAIRIE MEADOWS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 18th Saylorville, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3)

Most Likely: #1 Beat the Blue 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #6 Ha Ha Tonka 3-1 2nd

8th: 12th Iowa Distaff, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

[b][color=”red”]Most Likely: #7 Bella Medaglia 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Freedom Star 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Kimber Lily 10-1 5th

9th: 13th Iowa Sprint H., 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ventana 7-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Atta Boy Roy 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Ducky Drake 6-1 WON ($29.00)
Super Add: #3 Humble Smarty 5-1 5th

10th: IA-CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Winter’s Wildchild 4-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Wild Prairie 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Don’t Tell Dad 9-2 –
Super Add: #3 Frontier Fantasy 7-2 WON ($7.80)

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-6
8: 1-7
9: 4-7
10: 1-2-3-11

2x2x2x4 = 32 x $1.50 = $48 ($16 for each .50 increment)

Expecting thundserstorms later in the afternoon, so I looked at the early half of the Belmont card!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Bretton Woods 4-1
Next Best: #4 Song for Pupcake 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Marie’s Babe 6-1
Super Add: #6 Split Pot 5-1

2nd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Same Old Wish 5-1
Next Best: #2 Big Herman 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Storm Pursuit 8-1

3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dark Thunder 7-2
Next Best: #3 Safety Check 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 My Golden Opinion 4-1

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Odd and tricky group..

Best Value: #5 Montessori 4-1
Next Best: #8 Weak Dollar Policy 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Buddy’s Dream 6-1
Super Add: #7 Soldierette 10-1

5th: CLM/3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 City Sneakers 5-2
Best Value: #6 Hurricane Heat 20-1
Next Best: #2 Big Polk a Dot 6-1
Super Add: #9 Quiet On the Tee 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-5
3: 2-3-5
4: 5-8-9
5: 2-4-6-9

2x3x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve

A pair of crazy totes upended the multi-race action at Belmont and Churchill Saturday, as $160 Rocky World (NYB MSW) and $75 Pool Play (G1 Stephen Foster) scored as the longest respective prices on the board. As a result, NY offers a $169k P6 C/O and KY a $20k version as well as Super Hi-5 carry of $13k. The upset by Rocky World was difficult to comprehend even after the race, but Pool Play at least was moving to a dirt main track for the first time and is bred for it. He was within range of the prime contenders, was just ‘one of the others’ to be looked at in a deep group, and was easy to lose on the board. After Kerry Metiver and Jaime Rodriguez authored the stunner in the Belmont 5th and up to Miguel Mena booting home the Mark Casse trainee in Churchill’s 2nd most important feature, the day was pretty darn nice with a number of solid P3’s and a few exotics bingos. Hope you did well and enjoyed the fun day of racing.. A very Happy Father’s Day to all!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

VERY good race for $25k maidens. In addition to the 4 below at bonus mutuels, you are absolutely forced to consider 4-1 Mott grey Hoopskirt and 7-2 Contessa dropper Far Isle who have been perilously close to their diplomas. Even Terranova’s Tulane Up has a sneaky chance in here at 15-1. Like Saturday’s 5th that produced the 79-1 winner, a brutally tough way to start the P6 sequence..

Best Value: #10 Time Marches On 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 (POE) She Drives Me Wild 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Miss Vindictive 8-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Another Please 5-1 3rd

6th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Feels straightforward with Brown/Ramsey 4yo strictly the one to beat..

Most Likely: #7 Hyper 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Longhammer 4-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #1 Giopi 15-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Cookram Rock 5-1 6th

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting group of 3-4yo turf fillies. Favored Splendid (3-1), who jumped up first turf, and Race to Urga (8-5) are fine, but sense 2-3 others are well within range including Phipps’ Abaco (5-1) who chased Saturday’s Regret (G3) winner Bizzy Caroline at KEE..

Best Value: #5 Abaco 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Splendid 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Race to Urga 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Super Add: #3 Winery 10-1 7th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Pretty Cozzy 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Considerate 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Lights Out Lisa 3-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Watkins Glen 8-1 7th

9th: Noble Nashua-NY, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Doubt Be Bullish — entered by old connections before being claimed Friday — runs. Also interesting to see Galluscio wheel right back with Johannesburg Smile, who could not have looked better winning an open company ALW against real horses on Belmont Day..

Most Likely: #6 Johannesburg Smile 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Spa City Fever 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Slevin 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Smokin Hero 12-1 WON ($18.80)

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Best Value: #2 English Ivy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Saint Kitten 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #6 Strikealinethruit 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Skips Prospect 6-1 WON ($17.80)

<$75 or <$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-10 (2-4-6)
6: 7
7: 1-5-8
8: 7-9
9: 6
10: 2-12

6 in Leg A: 6x1x3x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
3 in Leg A: 3x1x3x2x1x2 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-8
8: 7-9-10
9: 1-2-6-8
10: 2-12

3x3x4x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$34k P6 C/O starts here..

Feels like at least a half dozen are capable of winning this if it stays on the lawn..

Best Value: #2 Titus Catienus 5-1 11th
Next Best: #7 More Than Lucky 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Windaful 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Stan’s Got Talent 8-1 8th

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Fight for V L T’s 3-1 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #11 Karakorum On Black 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Iron Lou 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 I Got Swagger 20-1 6th

7th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Buddy Red 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Carmel Bay 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Gotta Go Round 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Broadway Philly 8-1 4th

8th: 37th Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Colonial’s odd decision to open Turf Cup to elders made this event a prime beneficiary. Good, good race with well-matched set of 9 and little to seperate them. Trip[ and predilection for yielding turf should determine outcome, and would guess those trying to rally will be compromised by the conditions..

Best Value: #2 Longhunter 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Fastest Magician 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Chinglish 4-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Street Game 12-1 WON ($18.20)

9th: 43rd Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

May be just six, but it’s going to be a jockey’s chess match out there.

Most Likely: #5 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Awesome Maria 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #6 Payton d’Oro 8-1 2nd

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Hopeful Boy 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #6 Payout 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Golden Temple 4-1 DNF
Super Add: #3 Swinging at Siro’s 8-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-7-8-12
6: 4-6 (10-11)
7: 8-10-11
8: 2
9: 2-3-5-6
10: 9

4x2x3x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 8-10-11
8: 2-4-6-8
9: 2-3-5-6
10: 6-9

3x4x4x2 = $96 x .50 = $48

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Two year old colts including #10 Whinston, a $625k Stonestreet sales-topper at Barrett’s acquired weeks before Jess Jackson’s passing. D. Wayne unveils #2 Chalybeate Springs, a Dynaformer bay out of the brilliant Chaposa Springs who counted the ’95 Test, ’96 Princess Rooney and Ballerina among her 14 wins from 23 starts..

Most Likely: #10 Whinston 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Brown Eyed Jozi 6-1 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Chalybeate Springs 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Cane Swagger 15-1 9th

8th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dr Ballenger 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #12 Karma Shield 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Orsonian 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Santo Gato 7-2 5th

9th: 36th Jefferson Cup (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Oliver S. (Wed. at Indiana Downs) runners Live in Joy, Swagger Jack and Great Mills SCR, as does Dream Warrior..

Most Likely: #4 Banned 7-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #2 Redboard 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Perregaux 5-1 3rd

10th: 14th Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Joe Vann does NOT come out in favor of next week’s Iowa Derby ar PrM; Chalice ran 2nd in that Oliver S. Wednesday and exits field..

Most Likely: #3 Wilburn 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Scotus 4-1 WON ($18.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Infratini 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Joe Vann 7-2 3rd

11th: 42nd Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Excited 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Kathmanblu 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Bizzy Caroline 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #4 Holidaysatthefarm 8-1 –

12th: 30th Stephen Foster (G1), 3+, 9f (Super, Super Hi-5)

May not be star-packed, but certainly chock ful o’ stakes horses and a fun betting affair. May have gone in his direction anyway, but with rain at the Downs and a wet track very likely, hard to pass up Fawkes’ Duke of Mischief at anything close to the 6-1 ML..

Best Value: #9 Duke of Mischief 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Crown of Thorns 4-1 7thth
Exotics Use: #3 Apart 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Giant Oak 7-2 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Regal Ransom 6-1 11th

<$50 P5 Play:

8: 1-4-12-13
9: 2-4-6
10: 3
11: 1-5-6
12: 2-9

4x3x1x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 2-4-6
10: 3
11: 1-4-5-6
12: 2-3-6-9-10-11

3x1x4x6 = $72 ($36 for .50)