Return to New York from Florida Thursday after 2 very pleasant weeks. Preparations for ‘At the Races’ 5th season broadcasting from Carolina Barbecue in the Saratoga backyard are in full swing, and everything points to a great 7 week stand at the Spa. As good as summer racing is when Del Mar (Wednesday) and Saratoga open (Friday), the last several weeks and weekends have provided top flight entertainment and wagering opportunities already. Flirted with P6 score at Belmont Saturday, but had to settle for the $140 conso and solid $383 P4. There were some nice numbers to poach in the Delaware and Summit of Speed sequences as well. Hope everybody did well… Hollywood offers another midweek carryover Thursday — this one almost $110k. When we last encountered this opportunity, two weeks ago, the total pot soared towards $1,000,000.

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Top pair should get us through first leg..

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #6 Entabeni 4-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #4 Subpeona the Dress 2-1 4th

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

If Town Belle doesn’t win this, don’t know when she will..

Most Likely: #6 Town Belle 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 On Your Mark 2-1 7th
Best Value: #4 She Can Roar 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Team Builder 7-2 5th

5th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Trickiest event of the sequence. If it’s not Madeoftherightstuf (2-1), then it’s anybody..

Most Likely: #8 Madeoftherightstuf 2-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Nofty 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #4 Kingpin Ryno 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Valen 10-1 5th

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Very well-matched group..

Best Value: #5 Legal Separation 6-1 WON ($20.80)
Next Best: #4 Chiloquin 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Gator Warrior 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Master Chef 2-1 6th

7th: ALW/C, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Unzip Me is formidable and exceedingly likely, but she’s not unbeatable..

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Seperate Forest 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Broken Dreams 3-1 WON ($7.40)

8th: Cal-MDN CLM, 2yo, 5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Firster Run for Miles may be on a par with the double-dropping fave Pedlars Way..

Most Likely: #1 Pedlars Way 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Run for Miles 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Grumpy Small Mouth 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #2 Insightful Boy 10-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Taylor Marini 20-1 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1/SCR–6
4: 6
5: 2-8
6: 4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

1x1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x $2 = $72

$2 Pick 6 (6/6,9/2/5/1/8) Paid $617.20 (5OF6) x 2 = $1,234.40

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-4-8
6: 1-3-4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

3x5x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

TURF SOFT TO START DAY. ALL ‘ON’ EXCEPT 10TH.

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$34k P6 C/O starts here..

All juvy firsters with several from prominent outfits and nicely-bred. Doesn’t look to have any surprise candidates to start the carryover sequence..

Most Likely: #3 Stat 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #4 Patriotic Lion 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Street Fight 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Backnbiz 12-1 6th

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Westside Corral 7-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Strong Impact 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Compliance Officer 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #2 Late SCR

7th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bound to Happen 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Love Stanza Chance 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #8 Tropical Inset 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 A New York Phillie 10-1 6th

8th: Caress, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Have to be against Rose Catherine at the short number..

Most Likely: #4 Much Rejoicing 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Dominant Currency 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1a Quebrada Shiner 6-1 WON ($18.80)
Super Add: #3 Rose Catherine 5-2

9th: 53rd Man O’War (G1), 3+, 11f-IT (DD, Super)

If turf is too soft, Gio Ponti will come out. And if it is indeed soft, front end thievery by Mission Approved becomes easier. Very interesting edition of this event..

Most Likely: #7 Cape Blanco 5-2 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #5 Gio Ponti 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Al Khali 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Mission Approved 5-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #12 That’s Rich 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #13 Chairman Tucker 7-2 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #2b Parkinson Field 15-1 4th

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 3-4
6: 1-8-9
7: 3-6
8: 4
9: 5-7
10: 12-13

2x3x2x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

$2 Pick 6 (3-1-6-1-7-13) 5 Correct Paid $140.00

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-8
8: 1-3-4-5-6
9: 1-3-4-5-7
10: 12-13

3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

$2 Pick 4 (6-1-7-13) 4 Correct Paid $382.75

DELAWARE PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Robert Dick Mem. (G3), F&M-3+, 11f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Perfect Shirl 8-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Cheetah 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Dyna Waltz 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Honimiere 10-1 5th

8th: Barbaro, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously competitive running of this, with a whole bunch of speed signed on..

Best Value: #10 Yankee Passion 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Rush Now 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Meistersinger 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 J W Blue 5-1 2nd

9th: Delaware Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Another interesting Oaks event as more and more solid sophomores in the various divisions get chances to showcase their development..

Most Likely: #7 St. John’s River 7-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #5 Snow Fall 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 All for Thee 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dance Quietly 12-1 4th

<$25 P3 Play:

7: 1-4-8-9-10
8: 3-5-7-8-10
9: 5-7

5x5x2 = 50 x .50 = $25

$.50 Pick 3 (9-5-7) 3 Correct Paid $42.05

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Azalea (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Beso Grande 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Devilish Lady 5-1 WON ($21.40)
Next Best: #5 May Day Rose 8-5 4th
Super Add: #6 Just Louise 4-1 6th

9th: Carry Back (G2), 3yo, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Smash 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cal Nation 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Indiano 8-5 ($3.40)
Super Add: #4 Bulaga 10-1 5th

10th: Smile Sprint H. (G2), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Irrefutable 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Giant Ryan 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #7 This Ones for Phil 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Noble’s Promise 5-2 3rd

11th: Princess Rooney (G1), F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Very intriguing group for Calder’s only Gr. I race..

Best Value: #6 Bella Moneta 10-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Sassy Image 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Musical Romance 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Stephanie Got Even 12-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-5-6
9: 1
10: 1-2-4-7
11: 2-3-5-6-7-10

4x1x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

Taking the annual post-Triple Crown, pre-Saratoga freshening, but too much good racing out there to completely shirk the responsibilities!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Resoundingly 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Centrina 9-5 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Speedy’s Gal 5-1 3rd

5th: Rob N Gin, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific and very wide open overnight stake honoring the excellent son of Farma Way that won the Jersey Derby (G2), Hall of Fame (G2) Poker (G3), KY Cup Mile and PA Governor’s Cup for Bobby Barbara and Sabine Stable.. Stormy’s Majesty and Congaree half brother Sangaree make turf debuts here, and both are eligible to do OK over it..

Most Likely: #5 Beau Choix 8-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #2 Boots Ahead 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sangaree 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Stormy’s Majesty 8-1 4th

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Paper Plane 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 City Scamper 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Page by Page 6-1 WON ($30.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Senora Dubai 10-1 3rd

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Brutally well-matched group, and until I see SCR’s, will plan on swinging for the fences. With Linda Rice having Quick Money in here and eligible for laurels, Pegasus Tommy D., (cross-entered in Saturday’s 6th), may very well come out. Can’t Refuse is entered in Friday’s $25k CLM 7th and is 15-1 there too..

SCR #9 Can’t Refuse..

Best Value: #7 Chernobyl’s Hero 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Vose the Host 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Saratoga Steve 10-1 6th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Yet another tough set..

Best Value: #7 Katskill Bay 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Head Heart Hoof 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 The Zipster 2-1 WON ($12.60)

9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Risky Rachel 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Jackie Mo 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Sentimental Lass 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Super Add: #1 Fortheloveof Anna 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-6-7
7: 1-3-7-8
8: 3-6-7
9: 1-3-8-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Using a push of the ‘all’ button in the 6 horse Futurity proved highly productive Sunday, as the longest shot on the board — $30 Jack’s in the Deck — jumped up and drubbed the field to trigger a heavily overlaid $1,036 P4. It was a delightful score for a $54 investment, as the rest of the day’s surprises — especially Tamarind Hall’s shocker in the G3 Bed ‘o Roses for Englehart and Cohen — stopped most multi-race tickets and helped push the carryover (now $45,867) into today. Hope you did well! Opinions below and plenty of recapping and previewing on today’s ATR… A safe and happy 4th to all!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Bad horses win bad races, but it’s ill-advised to get too creative to start the sequence. We ‘need’ the obvious horses to run, because fishing deep on the P6 play here isn’t prudent..

Most Likely: #5 Haya’s Boy 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Pawnee Red 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Gypsy Warrior 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Robbie’s Turn 15-1 4th

$1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $4.60
$1 Trifecta (9-5-3) Paid $11.10
$1 Superfecta (9-5-3-6) Paid $63.00

6th: CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sheraguska 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Gentle Edwin 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Show Trial 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Merlin Bay 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $11.20
$1 Trifecta (7-4-2) Paid $20.30

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Atitlan 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mightylover 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Medieval Sword 8-1 WON ($18.20)
Super Add: #6 Dunwoody 7-2 10th

$1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $24.60
$1 Trifecta (9-3-1) Paid $81.25

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Good race with deep field of interesting contenders. Excellent wagering opp, especially if you’re not a big multi-race player..

Most Likely: #1 Pretty Cozzy 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Winged Bandit 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Best Value: #8 Glory in Motion 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Oatka Ida Rose 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $68.00
$1 Trifecta (5-8-7) Paid $440.00

9th: 64th Prioress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

A lot of speed signed on here. Should we ‘expect’ a collapse or just be prepared should one occur? Pure sprint PA-bred Quantum Miss is a filly Tony Dutrow told ATR listeners about over the winter, and if she continues to advance, or even simply holds form, she may be flat out faster than these. That 3-1 looks like a beach ball..

Most Likely: #4 QUANTUM MISS 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Alienation 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Pomeroys Pistol 4-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #4 Big Apple Lady 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Another Please 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Malibu Spice 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Siwanoy Lila 9-2 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 5
6: 2-4-7-8
7: 1-3-9
8: 1-5
9: 4
10: 1-3-4

1x4x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-6-9
8: 1-3-5-6-7-8
9: 4-5
10: 1-3-4

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

PARK – PHILADELPHIA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 13th Dr. James Penny Memorial H., F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Excellent edition of this race which may find a number attached to it next year based on this group. Idea to make money here is beating the underlaid entry and high profile Motion runners..

Best Value: #2 Strike the Bell 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Daveron 7-2 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Desert Sage 9-2 4th

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

10th: 21st Firecracker H. (G2), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Omniscient 20-1: 2nd/break; Prepped on lawn; Saves ground 10th
Next Best: #1 General Quarters 3-1: Back to lawn 2nd off break; Not a fan, but.. 7th
Exotics Use: #4 El Caballo 9-2: Also back on grass and real threat on best.. 9th
Super Add: #3 Mister Marti Gras — SCR’D

SCR Add: #9 Strike Impact 8-1 3rd

Spirited Saturday of action included substantive upsets in the Suburban (Preston Stables and Scooter Dickey’s Flat Out), Salvator Mile (Stonestreet and Steve Asmussen’s Kensei) and United Nations (Jules Boutelle and Justin Sallusto’s Teaks North). Wasn’t able to take advantage of those at all, but did well with $15 Hungry Island in the 3yo filly turf stake at Belmont and a few exotics bingos including the Dwyer and nightcaps at both Monmouth and Hollywood. What appeared to be a straightforward P6 carryover opp at HOL proved challenging when 2 big prices invaded the otherwise logical results, and only 2 plays claimed $207k returns. There is a $36k Super High 5 carryover Sunday at Inglewood, a pot made possible by 4th place finisher Jeffery’s Pride (82-1) and Exotic Slew, my Best Value second choice that boosted the $287.00 tri ($1) at 17-1. Hope you did well! A little Belmont action ahead of Monday’s Holiday action…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 121st Futurity (G2), 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

As a stand alone, think it may be worth trying to make something out of nothing here with the 2 and 3..

Best Value: #3 Threeanddonedan 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Getupwithesun 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Team Six 6-1 2nd

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Grandma 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Far Isle 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #5 My Man Nell 7-2 3rd

@$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-6
3: 1-2-7
4: All (4)
5: 2-7

3x3x6x2 = 108 x .50 = $54

$.50 Pick 4 (6-2-4-7) Paid: $1,036.25

6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 La Reine Lionne 2-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Musical Rain 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Emerald Beech 12-1 WON ($45.60)
Super Add: #7 Crescenda 12-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Hurricane Heat 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Bulls and Bears 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Miami Hammer 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 SCR

8th: 104th Matron (G2), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Defy Gravity 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Good Looking Girl 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Say a Novena 7-2 2nd

9th: 55th Bed’O Roses (G3), F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Hilda’s Passion 1-5 6th
Next Best: #6 Christine Daae 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Spa City Princess 12-1 3rd

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

As usual with the NYB turf ALW’s, a great betting affair..

Best Value: #5 Joey’s Chance 15-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Seattle Mission 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Holy Ego 8-1 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #14 Isn’tlovejustgrand 15-1 6th

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 2-7
6: 1
7: 2-5-6
8: 1-6
9: 7
10: 5-6-8-14

2x1x3x2x1x4 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4-5-6
8: 1-3-6
9: 7
10: 4-5-6-8-14

5x3x1x5 = $75 ($37.50 for .50)