Archive for the '2017' Category

1st quarter ends with C/O’s

Monday, July 31st, 2017

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Miss Kentucky 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 First Charmer 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 True Charm 8-1 WON ($9.00)

2nd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Mohican 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Peace Speaker 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Now in a Drive 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Oiseau de Guerre 8-1 2nd

3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Smile Big & Moana are more likely, but taking a stab that Medaglia d’Oro daughter out of BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home relishes return to dirt after extended turf campaign netted diploma downstate,,

Best Value: #2 Blenheim Palace 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Smile Big 5-2 WON ($15.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Moana 6-5 3rd

4th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$48k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Joopster 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #8 Day of Reckoning 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Shane’s Jewel 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Tom’s Music 12-1 5th

5th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

$100k NYRA Bets P5 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #7 Full Salute 10-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Shadow Rock 5-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Aktabantay 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Padilla 6-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

1: 4 (A), 5 (B), 3-5-6 (C)
2: 4-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
3: 1-2 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
4: 6-8 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
5: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), 2-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

2: 4-10 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
3: 1-2 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
4: 6-8 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
5: 7-8-9 (A), 2-6-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Tricky group. Not a whole lot of pace on..

Best Value: #5 Frosty Lady 8-1 WON ($5.30)
Next Best: #10 My Good Venezuela 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Morethanawarning 8-1 4th
Super Adds: #3 Believe Indeed 8-1 3rd

7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Minsky Moment 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Winston’s Chance 6-1 WON ($25.40)
Next Best: #4 Blame the Thief 5-2 4th

8th:6th Coronation Cup, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #6 Epping Forest 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Morticia 2-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #5 India Mantuana 4-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Hidden Mystery 10-1 3rd

9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 3+, 6f

Dab drops down, cuts back, goes turf to dirt AND adds blinkers.. And as if the karma moves quartet isn’t enough, I ran into John Terranova & Matt Gatsas at dinner last night to boot..

Most Likely: #1 Dab 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #13 Saratoga Colonel 8-1 5th
Next Best: #15 Nut Nut 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #14 Lake Surprise SCR

P6 Grid:

4: 6-8 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
5: 7-9 (A), – (B), 8-10 (C)
6: 5-10 (A), 7 (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
8: 6 (A), 5-8 (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 1 (A), 13 (B), 4-14-15 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x1x3x1 = 36 x $2 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x1x1x1 = 8 x $2 = $16

P5 Grid:

5: 7-8-9 (A), – (B), 2-6-10 (C)
6: 5-7-10 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
7: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
8: 5-6-8 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
9: 1 (A), 13 (B), 4-6-10-14-15 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x1x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x3x1x3x1 = 27 x .50 = $13.50

P4 Grid:

6: 5-7-10 (A), 3-4 (B), 6-11 (C)
7: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
8: 5-6-8 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
9: 1-13 (A), 14-15 (B), 4-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 3x1x3x2 = $18 ($9 for .50)

Haskell, SAR-MTH make Sunday fun

Sunday, July 30th, 2017

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: 41st Shuvee (G3), F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Apologynotaccepted 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Paid Up Subscriber 1-1 WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Terra Promessa 6-5 2nd

2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Frozen Hannah 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1a Jet Majesty 12-1 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #3 Industrial Policy 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Gotachancetodance 2-1 2nd

3rd: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Enduring Honor 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Fielding Gold 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Dunk a Din 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #6 Augie’s Coming 8-5 3rd

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Treacherous starter group turf dashing.. Case can be made for any combination..

Best Value: #2 Romans Paradise 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Six Schillings 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Heldatgunpoint 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Rate for Me 4-1 WON ($12.60)

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Separationofpowers 5-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #2 Party Club 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Scary Not Scared 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Radiant Beauty 9-2 6th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
2: 1-6 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)
3: 2-3 (A), 4-6 (B), – (C)
4: 2-7-9 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (2/1/4/3/1) Paid $762.25

P4 Grid:

2: 1-3-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 2-3 (A), 4-6 (B), – (C)
4: 2-7-9 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x6x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 4x2x3x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1/4/3/1) Paid $248.25

6th: MSW, 3+, 11f-IT (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Really fun group with older MDN’s that clearly have some ability. Don’t be shy using prices on your tickets..

Best Value: #10 Desperado 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Im the Captain Now 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Run Time 9-2 9th
Super Add: #3 Bushmill’s Legend 12-1 3rd

7th: CLM, 3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very little pace here. Dash for cash..

Best Value: #3 Divine Oath 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 War Bond 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) King of New York 9-2 9th
Super Add: #8 Generous Kitten 5-2 10th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Cause for Surprise 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Syndergaard 8-5 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Nobody Move 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Saratoga Giro 6-1 5th

MONMOUTH 11: Matchmaker (G3), F&M-3+, 9f-T (MTH-SAR P4, P3 DD)

Most Likely: #2 Miss Temple City 4-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Wekeela 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #3 War Flag 7-2 2nd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #10 J. S. Choice 6-1 2nd
Next Best: ##1a Mambo At the Gym 6-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Race Me Home 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Lucullan 9-2 3rd

MONMOUTH 12: Haskell (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Battle of Midway 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Irish War Cry 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Timeline 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Practical Joke 4-1 3rd

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #3 Pioneer Spirit 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Warm Springs 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 New York’s Finest 9-2 WON ($13.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Speedy Slew 20-1 9th

MONMOUTH-SARATOGA P4 Grid:

7: 2 (A), – (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 1-10 (A), 2-8 (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 1-2-3-4 (A), – (B), 5-6-7 (C)
10: 3-6-10 (A), 1-5-9 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x2x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

P5 Grid:

6: 6-10 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-5 (C)
7: 1-3-6 (A), – (B), 2-7-8 (C)
8: 7-8 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 1-10 (A), 2-8 (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 3 (A), 6-10 (B), 1-5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

7: 3-6 (A), 1-2-7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 7-8 (A), – (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 1-10 (A), 2-8 (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 3-6-10 (A), – (B), 1-5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Dandy pits Derby/Preakness winners

Saturday, July 29th, 2017

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Bourbon Resolution has advantage of a start, and a good one, over the Pletchers and the Asmussen..

Most Likely: #3 Bourbon Resolution 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Mojovation 9-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #6 Country Squire 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Lionite 7-2 2nd

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Deep and nice looking group of 3yo’s, many that appear to have plenty of upside. Hieroglyphics keeps improving for Pletcher. Benefactor, well bred for grass, moves to lawn for Maker who has been consistently successful with this move. Master Merion took a while to break through, but ability to rate some in MDN-breaker bodes well for added distance. Capitane is out of a full sister to Justenuffhumor, thereby a half to Dreaming of Anna & Lewis Michael. Could leap forward on lawn for Hennig. Surprise Twist saves all the ground while adding Castellano off LRL diploma for Delacour/Lael..

Most Likely: #8 Hieroglyphics 3-1 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #10 Benefactor 12-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Hembree 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Capitaine 15-1 7th

3rd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Pico Chick 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Kirby’s Penny 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Murrell’s Bell 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Kentucky Dancer 6-1 7th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Fascinating group of juveniles, many with appropriate breeding from outfits proven in this assignment..

Best Value: #9 Johnny Ray 10-1: 2nd Ward kin to several fast, early winners.. 7th
Next Best: #1 Beta Max 5-1: Tricky draw for debuting half to Lady Shipman.. 8th
Exotics Use: #3 El Dulce 5-2 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #2 Ultima D 8-1 2nd

5th: 25th Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Pletcher has won this with some fancy colts that went on to sire careers (Quality Road, Discreetly Mine, Forty Tales) and Coal Front has everything going for him including speed and style that suits race flow..

Most Likely: #2 Coal Front 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #6 Toga Challenger 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Excitations 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Mo Cash 5-2 4th

P5 Grid:

1: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
2: 8-10 (A), 2-7-11 (B), 3-4 (C)
3: 3-7 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 2-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
5: 2 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (5/5,8,9/3/3/2) Paid $66.37

P4 Grid:

2: 8-10-11 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-4 (C)
3: 3-7 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
4: 1-2-3-9 (A), 5-8-10 (B), 4-7 (C)
5: 2 (A), 5 (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x7x2 = 140 x .50 = $70
All A’s: 3x2x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 Pick-4 (5,8,9/3/3/2) Paid $65.00 ($32.50 for .50)

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 11f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

I’ve seen this movie before. It stars Michael Matz & Julien Leparoux with a brilliantly-bred Strawbridge runner coming in to a spot mispriced..

Best Value: #4 Tasit 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Call Provision 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Nessy 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Tathqeef 10-1 8th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ack Naughty 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 La Sola Ranger 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Mom’s On Strike 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Vagabond 4-1 9th

8th: 33rd A.P. Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Don’t blame Wilkes for trying to get Bird Song to the Whitney for Mary Lou, but this is what he wants to do..

Best Value: #5 BIRD SONG 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Limousine Liberal 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 A.P. Indian Late SCR
Super Add: #7 Ready for Rye 12-1 6th

9th: 59th Bowling Green (G2), 4+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

G1 winners (United Nations/Manhattan) on either end of the starting gate merit edge, but the 5 in between are rock solid and capable of fitting anywhere in the pecking order. Really nice edition of this downstate standard that has been re-purposed as a Sword Dancer prep..

Most Likely: #7 Ascend 8-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Bigger Picture 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Closing Bell 8-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #4 Sadler’s Joy 3-1 3rd

10th: 54th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Derby & Preakness winners prepare for Travers and while Always Dreaming or Cloud Computing are exceedingly likely, cases can be made for Guiseppe the Great, Pavel and Good Samaritan making an impact, with each doing something for the first time at a point in the year and their careers where they can leap forward..

Most Likely: #2 Cloud Computing 6-5 5th
Next Best: #1 Always Dreaming 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Guiseppe the Great 10-1 2nd

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Lightly raced set of fillies going long on the grass and no easy cross-outs..

Most Likely: #2 Durable Goods 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #8 Magical Sky 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Wake Island 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Fashion Week 8-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 8 (A), 5-7 (B), 2-3-6 (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 1-3-4-7 (A), 2-5-6 (B), – (C)
10: 1-2 (A), – (B), 3-4-5 (C)
11: 2-3-8 (A), – (B), 1-4-6-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x7x2x3 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A’s: 1x1x4x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), – (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 1-3-4-7 (A), 2-5-6 (B), – (C)
10: 1-2 (A), – (B), 3-4-5 (C)
11: 2-3-4-8 (A), 1-6-7-11 (B), 5-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x7x2x8 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 1x4x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

Curlin starts big Saratoga weekend

Friday, July 28th, 2017

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Big Mara 9-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #5 Missy Mouse 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: 2 Madam Aamoura 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Two Term Max 6-1 6th

2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

First was tricky, this impossible. At least 7 of the 9 look eligible to win..

Best Value: #6 Here and There 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Lightening Buzz 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Noneedtoflatterme 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #3 Kerry Boy 20-1 3rd

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Fun, well-matched group. Think you want those that have less dents in the fender..

Best Value: #6 Soar Once More 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Bodie’s Valentine Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Dovecote 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #9 Red Dane 8-1 7th

4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Plenty of pace signed on here..

Most Likely: #5 Will Did It 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 War Eagle’s Return 20-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Draxhall Woods 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Gambler’s Ghost 5-2 4th

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Looking Ready 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Aveenu Malcainu 9-2 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #4 Big Gemmy 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Valmont 20-1 10th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-5 (A), 2-6 (B), 4 (C)
2: 6-8-9 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
3: 2-6-7-9 (A), – (B), 5-8-10 (C)
4: 5 (A), – (B), 1-6-8 (C)
5: 1 (A), 9 (B), 2-4-5-6-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x1x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x3x4x1x1 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

2: 6-8-9 (A), – (B), 2-3-4 (C)
3: 2-6-7-9 (A), – (B), 5-8-10 (C)
4: 5 (A), 1-8 (B), 6 (C)
5: 1-9 (A), – (B), 2-4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x4x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Regal Roma 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Rimanisempreforte 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Magician’s Vanity 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Baronet 15-1 8th

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Either Chad Brown runner can win. Tale of S’avail a winner in last dip to ALW company. Tale of Life was gelded, goes turf to dirt while cutting back, the ‘ol Triple Whammy. Defending Navarro’s Shaft of Light in multis..

Most Likely: #8 Economic Model 3-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Three Five India 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Tale of S’avail 10-1 WON ($21.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Shaft of Light 2 -1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Trio from 7/2 Belmont ALW (Rocketry, Gauguin, Memories of Peter) the principles here. Holiday Bonus always cashing checks. Harlan Strong appreciated added furlong for diploma and and another quarter mile should suit being out of Fitzcarraldo mare..

Most Likely: #8 Rocketry 2-1 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #3 Memories of Peter 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gauguin 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Shamsaan 10-1 5th

9th: Curlin, 3yo, 9f (DD)

Can’t be surprised when by Sunday night, Chad Brown has swept this (You’re to Blame), the Jim Dandy (Cloud Computing) and Haskell (Timeline OR Practical Joke)..

Most Likely: #7 You’re to Blame 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Outplay 5-2 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #3 Small Bear 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Thirst for Victory 9-2 5th

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #10 Money Laundering 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Atwitzend 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #13 Digitaldestruction 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Toast to Ghost 8-1 5th

P5 Grid:

6: 5-9 (A), – (B), 2-4-7-8-10 (C)
7: 4-8 (A), – (B), 2-6-9 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
9: 2-7 (A), – (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 7-10-13 (A), – (B), 1-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

7: 4-8 (A), – (B), 2-6-9 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), 5-7 (B), – (C)
9: 2-7 (A), 3 (B), 1-5 (C)
10: 7-9-10-13 (A), – (B), 1-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $64

G1 Paddy Smithwick starts Spa Thursday

Thursday, July 27th, 2017

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: 21st A.P. ‘Paddy’ Smithwick (G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Want to try solid but never spectacular Diplomat who may be in right form at the right time for Kate & Bernie Dalton. Import Modem was fairly well rated in UK and might be better than currrent domestic cast. Colonel John brother Mr. Hot Stuff a vulnerable fave, but won this 4 years ago and certainly good enough on best. Andi’amu a sentimental exotics include for Leslie Young who soldiers on with husband Paddy on the arduous mend after devastating spring incident..

Best Value: #6 Diplomat 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Modem 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Charminster 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Andi’amu 20-1 8th

2nd: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

DePaz os 4/7 ($5.63) going turf/dirt, 2/4 second off layoff ($3.75) and drops Annapolis Class to boot. Bobby Ribaudo (Tarquinia) another with positive ROI going lawn to loam ($2.06)..

Best Value: #6 Annapolis Class 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Tarquinia 9-2 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Bixby Lou 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Marie Joelle 6-1 5th

3rd: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (7f) (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Maddy’s Way 4th
Next Best: #3 Jonquil WON ($13.20)

4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Hard Hitter 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Swift One 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 At Guard 5-2 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Pirellone 12-1 3rd

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Sweet Offer 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Puttinyouonthenews 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Talk Softly 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Mermaid of Honor 12-1 6th

6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Rprettyboyfloyd WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #2 Toohottooevenspeak 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Baratti 4th

OFF/TURF P5 Play:

2: 1-3-6
3: 1-3
4: 4-7
5: 3-9
6: 2-5-7-11-12

3x2x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60

OFF/TURF P4 Play:

3: 1-3-5-6
4: 4-7
5: 3-9
6: 2-5-7-11-12

4x2x2x5 = 80 x .50 = $40

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tom’s d’Etat 5-2 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #5 Bellamy Way 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Far From Over 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Bodhisattva 12-1 3rd

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Blue Bahia 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Ancient Secret 2-1 2nd-Up from 3rd
Best Value: #7 Rocky Policy 12-1 3rd-DQ’d from 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Blip n’ Th Bye 6-1 6th

9th: 14th John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Unbelievable group with 6 exiting victories while accounting for 24 wins combined JUST THIS YEAR. While one or two of the pressers could stay on, feels like you have to play this to collapse with all the pace involved. Potential for wet complicates matters further..

Most Likely: #10 Papa Shot 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Eye Luv Lulu 15-1
Next Best: #12 Celtic Chaos 6-1 WON ($13.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Candid Desire Late SCR

10th: CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #1 Owesaycanyousee 5th
Next Best: #11 Romantic Music 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Unbridled Adventure WON ($11.40)

P5 Grid:

6: 2-11-12 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
7: 2-5 (A), – (B), 1-3-4 (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 8 (C)
9: 9-10-12 (A), 5-6-8/SCR (B), – (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 2-5 (A), 1-3-4 (B), – (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 8 (C)
9: 5-6-7-8/SCR-9-10-12 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-11 (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x7x3 = 70 x .50 = $35
All A’s: 2x1x7x2 = $28 ($14 for .50)