CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Closing day at Churchill and .20 Single Six will be forced out with $174k in pot to start the day. Should hit $1,000,000..

Most Likely: #1 Giocouragement 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Frost Or Frippery 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Hawkshaw 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Big Ben 20-1 WON ($19.40)
Super Add: #9 Burley Blaise 12-1 10th

8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 The Gipper 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #12 Proforma 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Unbridled West 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 He’s Munnie 6-1 7th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Uncle James 4-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Zanotti 9-2 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #10 Jack West 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Perfect Saint 4-1 8th
Super Add: #1 What’s Your Thesis 8-1 9th

10th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Helooksthepart 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Iron Fist 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Cupid’s Delight 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Torazo 12-1 5th

11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Approvethismessage 4-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Southern Wild 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Smart Moon 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Uncle Guy 7-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Zambian 5-1 2nd

12th: MCLM/$30k, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Dunk a Din 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Tonbo 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Singleton 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Pitch Count 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Banker’s Mark 15-1 –

P6 Grid:

7: 1-4-5 (A), 3-9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 3-10-12 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 9-10 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), – (B), 2-3-4-7 (C)
11: 4-7-8 (A), 2-3-12 (B), 1-6-10 (C)
12: 1-3-12 (A), – (B), 2-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x2x6x3 = 864 x .20 = $172.80
All A’s: 3x1x2x2x3x3 = 108 x .20 = $21.60

P5 Grid:

8: 5 (A), 12 (B), 2-10 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 9-10 (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), – (B), 2-3-4-7 (C)
11: 7-8 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-12 (C)
12: 1-3-12 (A), – (B), 2-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $92
All A’s: 1x2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

P4 Grid:

9: 4-5 (A), 9-10 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
10: 1-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-3-4 (C)
11: 7-8 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-12 (C)
12: 1-3-12 (A), – (B), 2-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 95th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

The mile and eighth always makes for interesting dynamic this time of year with the 2yo’s and it looks like there’s no shortage of pace signed on. Irad Ortiz gets another chance on Jamyson ‘n Ginger after BC fiasco. Majestic Bonnie (20-1) an intriguing participant for Weaver as she should relish the 9f if able to handle the dirt. Ladies Day (8-1) another that should excel at the trip..

Most Likely: #4 Jamyson ‘n Ginger 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Majestic Bonnie 20-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Ladies Day 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Miss Sky Warrior 3-1 WON ($13.20)

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Wild group that has maybe 2-3 lengths separating them. Pace appears honest enough..

Best Value: #4 Fearthefalcon 10-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Mark My Style 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Aragonite 6-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Cliffs of Dover 10-1 3rd

8th: 103rd Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 No Dozing 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Takaful 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Mo Town 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #1 Tellmeafookystory 20-1 7th

9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Hardly Home 4-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Call Provision 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Richmond Street 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Manitoulin 3-1 3rd

10th: 28th Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m

Fun assortment of quality players in this late fall standard. After the obvious players in Connect, Anchor Down and Divining Rod, note that Realm is the only runner in the field that has won over the Big A main..

Most Likely: #10 Diving Rod 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Connect 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #3 Realm 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Anchor Down 2-1 5th

P5 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 4-12 (A), – (B), 3-5-8-11 (C)
8: 4-9 (A), – (B), 8 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), – (B), 1-9 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-4-9 (C)

P4 Grid:

7: 4-12 (A), 3 (B), 5-8-11 (C)
8: 4-9 (A), 2 (B), 1-2-7 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-4-9 (C)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Queen Bernardini 7-2 10th
Best Value: #8 Foul Play 10-1 11th
Next Best: #3 Fleet Dude 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Benner Island 8-1 WON ($13.80)

9th: 73rd Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Daddys Lil Darling 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Ever So Clever 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Lovely Bernadette 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Fun 6-1 12th

10th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Nice Not Nice 12-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Lookin At Blessing 4-1 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Resiliency 3-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Guest Suite 2-1 WON ($6.00)

11th: 90 KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #11 McCracken 7-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #12 Uncontested 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Wild Shot 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Jocker Justice 30-1 9th

12th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Local Hero 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Hollow Point 9-5 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Combat Controller 15-1 –
Super Add: #11 Daddy Bob 15-1 –
Hi-5 Play: #6 Indy Hill 15-1 –

P5 Grid:

8: 2-3-8 (A), – (B), 6-7-10-12 (C)
9: 2-9-12 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)
10: 11-12 (A), 4-8-9 (B), – (C)
11: 11-12 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
12: 2 (A), – (B), 1 (C)

P4 Grid:

9: 2-9-12 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)
10: 11-12 (A), 4-8-9 (B), – (C)
11: 11-12 (A), 3 (B), – (C)
12: 2 (A), – (B), 1 (C)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYSS-Thunder Rumble, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

If Jet Black is going to be 8-1, he’s a key. Sciacca-Parcells’ rare black colt still improving and will vie up front with solid Loki’s Vengeance. Empire Dreams, 3rd off the long break, cuts back from the 9f Empire Classic. Hard-knocking Becker’s Galaxy dangerous first off the Rudy Rod claim..

Best Value: #5 Jet Black 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Loki’s Vengeance 3-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #4 Empire Dreams 5-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Becker’s Galaxy 12-1 2nd

5th: NY-OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mo Maverick 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #9 Shiraz 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Hamptons Holiday 8-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 e Broman entry 5-1 7th/8th

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Bustin It 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #10 Toohottoevenspeak 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Mr Curiousity 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 New York’s Zip 12-1 4th

7th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Kathryn the Wise 5-1 WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #1 Play Me a Memory 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Tough Old Bird 7-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Shimmering Moon 3-1 3rd

8th: Winter Memories, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 My Impression 3-1 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #12 Insta Erma 10-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Noble Beauty 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Danilova 6-1 7th

9th: Key Cents-NY, 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

This has the look of a mad scramble, so you have to be looking towards the back for a gal to pick up the pieces..

Most Likely: #7 Overnegotiate 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Kim Royale 5-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Filibustin 4-1 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #4 Tainted Angel 3-1 5th

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #7 Lillie’s Answer 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Hudson River Gal 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Stormin Saratoga 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Bareeqa 3-1 5th

P5 Grid:

6: 1-10 (A), – (B), 2-6-7-8 (C)
7: 2 (A), – (B), 1-3-8 (C)
8: 1-6-11-12 (A), – (B), 3-10 (C)
9: 6-7 (A), 4-10 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
10: 2-4-7 (A), 10-11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x4x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x1x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 PICK FIVE (1,3/2/1,7,9,13/10/2,8) Paid $221.50

P4 Grid:

7: 2 (A), 1 (B), 3-8 (C)
8: 1-6-11-12 (A), – (B), 3-10 (C)
9: 6-7 (A), 4-10 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
10: 2-4-7 (A), 10-11 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 1x4x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (2/1,7,9,13/10/2,8) Paid $120.87

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Dream Supreme, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 I’m a Looker 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Finley’sluckycharm 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Moiety 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Fioretti 6-1 6th

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Ciaran’s Prize 15-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Royal Obsession 5-2 9th
Exotics Use: #13 Tiger Moth 5-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Improv 7-2 3rd

10th: Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Ian Wilkes got first of what could be a few weekend stakes wins Thursday with Thatcher Street. Linda (12-1) has leaped forward with move to grass and could be this good..

Best Value: #6 Linda 12-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #8 Harmonize 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Hawksmoor 5-2 6th
Super Add: #13 Shelbysmile 10-1 5th

11th: Clark H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Noble Bird may prove tough to run down if left unattended..

Most Likely: #6 Noble Bird 7-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Gun Runner 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #2 Effinex 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Hoppertunity 5-2 4th

12th: CLM, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Ainar 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 High Dollar Kitten 8-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Cy Seven 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Man of Quality 12-1 6th

P5 Grid:

8: 2-6 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 10-11-13 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 6-8-11 (A), – (B), 5-13 (C)
11: 1-6 (A), 2 (B), 4-7-9 (C)
12: 2 (A), 5 (B), 1-10-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

9: 10-11 (A), 6-13 (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 6-8-11 (A), – (B), 5-13 (C)
11: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), 4-7-9 (C)
12: 2-5 (A), 1-12 (B), 10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/6/1/5) Paid $1,045.75 (C-A-A-A: $138)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$65k, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$101k C/O starts here..

This is a VERY treacherous sequence.. Put a line through the 2 off/turf starts for Menacing Dennis and note his improving line on the Beyer scale (45-57-71). Sciacca ITM 50% at meet thus far (18/4-5-1) and has taken an instant liking to the way Gallardo rides. Given difficulty of sextet, may need to go narrow here with him, Piazza Del Campo and Clyde’s Image. Passport to Chaos & Sir Temple City are first turf and bred for it..

Most Likely: #4 Menacing Dennis 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Passport to Chaos 15-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Piazza Del Campo 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Clyde’s Image 6-1 WON ($18.60)

5th: OC/C, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Thoroughly impossible group to decipher. NONE would surprise..

Best Value: #6 Alex the Terror 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Life in Shambles 8-5 WON ($4.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Classy Class 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Big Guy Ian 12-1 4th

6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Another quagmire with added challenge of evaluating several returning from layoffs..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Marble Falls 5-2 2nd/3rd
Best Value: #6 Forest Boy 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Grey Glory 2-1 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #4 Who Is the Giant 12-1 7th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

As I write these races up, I’m increasingly convinced there is no way to hit this P6 for smallish money. Eight of the 10 look capable of winning this..

Best Value: #1 Lucky Town 15-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Leaveematthegate 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 River Knight 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Freedom Seven 10-1 5th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD)

For the sake of austerity on the multi plays, don’t we need Brimstone to wire this group? Concern is Global Positioning to his outside who is off the claim and off a bullet drill..

Most Likely: #6 Brimstone 2-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Thirst for Glory 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Taoiseach 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Testosterone 6-1 6th

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

If Catapult Jack SCR’D can get in, his race 2 back looks VERY strong v. these..

Best Value: #6 Bushmill Giant 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #2 Brooklyn Speights 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Been Indicted 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Southern Union 4-1 8th

P6 Grid:

4: 4-5 (A), 8 (B), 7-10-12 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-7 (C)
6: 1-6 (A), – (B), 3-5-8 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 5 (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 2-3-5 (C)
9: 6 (A), 2 (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3x1x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x1x1 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

6: 1-6 (A), – (B), 3-5-8 (C)
7: 1-5-6 (A), – (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 2-5-7 (B), – (C)
9: 2-6 (A), 5 (B), 7-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 2x3x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$33,779 C/O starts here..

6 trying turf while stretching out; 4 first time starters. Tough way to start P6 C/O sequence. Note #12 (AE) Apartfromthecrowd (5-2) should he happen to draw in..

Most Likely: #4 Asphalt Paving 6-1: Valente’s turfy 2nd timer a half to Lady Digby.. 6th
Best Value: #2 Shades of Night 20-1: Mazza stretchout owns plenty of grass dap.. 5th
Next Best: #5 Condo Prince 6-5 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Yoshida 12-1 2nd

5th: 3rd Notebook-NY, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

A great deal of speed signed on..

Best Value: #2 Bourbon Empire 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Gold for the King 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Fled 15-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Macho Miah SCR

6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Azaelia 5-1 WON ($6.90)
Next Best: #5 Armoire 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Stella Rose 5-2 5th
Super Add: #9 Seeking Paradise 20-1 DNF-Pulled up after incident

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Tempter 12-1 10th
Next Best: #12 Oxford Circus 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Your Secret’s Safe 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Smokin Hot Factor 30-1 12th

8th: 2nd Artie Schiller, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #9 Long On Value 10-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Heart to Heart 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Jay Gatsby 5-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Blacktype 5-1 2nd

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #10 You Know I Know 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Chelios 5-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Dad’z Laugh 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Storm Pursuit 8-1 5th

P6 Grid:

4: 4 (A), 2-5 (B), 3-6-7-10 (C)
5: 2-9 (A), – (B), 4-11 (C)
6: 1 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
7: 8-12 (A), – (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
8: 9-10 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
9: 8-10 (A), 3-7 (B), 1-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 1x2x1x2x2x2 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

6: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
7: 8-12 (A), 1 (B), 4-5-6 (C)
8: 9-10 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
9: 8-10 (A), 3-7 (B), 1-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

DELTA DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 14th Delta Mile, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rise Up 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Fear the Cowboy 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Hesinfront 4-1 WON ($17.60)
Super Add: #2 Great Minds 5-2 2nd

5th: 12th Sam’s Town-R, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Black Bear 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Aaron’s Bluff 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 The Truth or Else 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Aces High 6-1 6th

6th: 14th Delta Princess (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Golden Mischief 7-2 7th
Best Value: #6 San Antonio Stroll 20-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Dude Fantasy 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Jilly 6-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Shane’s Girlfriend 6-1 WON ($8.80)

7th: 14th Delta Jackpot (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Our Stormin Norman 8-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Hot Sean 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Balandeen 10-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Gunnevara 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Hi-5 Play: #9 J Boys Echo 8-1 4th

P4 Grid:

4: 1-3-4 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
5: 3-4-10 (A), 5-8-9 (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), – (B), 2-6-8-10 (C)
7: 4-8 (A), 6-7-9 (B), 1-2-3-5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x1x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 3x3x1x2 = $18 ($9 for .50)