Look Out, Quality Road

[NTamm1215]

Considering St. Trinians is a desperate lunge away from being the first Zenyatta slayer, it'd be unlikely that you'd get much of a price on her anywhere in Southern California in any race.

That being said, I'm pretty sure Gio Ponti would beat her going 10 furlongs at Del Mar.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Considering St. Trinians is a desperate lunge away from being the first Zenyatta slayer,

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm pretty sure Gio Ponti would beat her going 10 furlongs at Del Mar.

Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.





Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

Doug, I could not have said it better myself. If they meet in the Pacific Classic and Gio Ponti is in the 6-5 range, my money would be on St. Trinians. Nick just does not appreciate her greatness.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

Per an old chart I have, I show GP running 61 feet MORE than Madeo (5 path 2nd turn to that one's 2 path). You think that accounts for the 1/2 length beat? That'd turn the tables on just about any horse on that course.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Per an old chart I have, I show GP running 61 feet MORE than Madeo (5 path 2nd turn to that one's 2 path). You think that accounts for the 1/2 length beat? That'd turn the tables on just about any horse on that course.

I had it at 58.5 feet

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.





Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

As far as my characterization of St. Trinians, that was really more of a compliment than anything else. I thought she ran a terrific race against Z, I've never said anything to the contrary.

The Del Mar Derby that Gio Ponti lost to Madeo in was certainly one of his disappointing efforts, he was 9-10 to win the race. Madeo benefited from an absolutely perfect trip and GP was also victimized by an overconfident ride from Garrett Gomez. I think that 2009, for the most part, made it clear that Gio Ponti was a different animal at 4 than he was at 3. After all, he was subsequently beaten twice by Court Vision (with the HOL Derby being circumstancial).

Gio Ponti ran a good race in the Dubai World Cup to finish fourth rallying into that viciously slow pace. His Strub was more of an aberration than anything else because he certainly ran well in the Sir Beaufort and BCC. I mean, Doug, after all, you and I have been told here dozens of times that that was like the greatest Classic field ever.

As far as me including Del Mar, that really was inconsequential. Obviously neither have started at Del Mar so it'd be impossible to determine who has any type of edge there. If St. Trinians were to come out and run a huge race again vs. Zenyatta then clearly you would think that she'd have an edge on Gio Ponti.

The thing to me about St. Trinians is that I don't really see her becoming considerably better at ten furlongs and her likely getting a little weary late. Could there be circumstances that lead to her getting the distance without a problem? Sure, but I would be more inclined to think GP's two best synthetic races are as good, if not better than any of St. Trinians prior races (or 1 and 1) and that he'd have an edge at the distance.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I was mostly just needling you. You typically have a good take but are skilled at spoiling the take with inconsequential silliness.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I was mostly just needling you. You typically have a good take but are skilled at spoiling the take with inconsequential silliness.

I had a feeling you were put up to it by a certain numskull.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think that 2009, for the most part, made it clear that Gio Ponti was a different animal at 4 than he was at 3. After all, he was subsequently beaten twice by Court Vision (with the HOL Derby being circumstancial).



NT

He had a whole bunch of bad rides/luck as a three year old. Then they took Gomez off and GP started getting good luck, and Ventura (in the race she lost to GP, among others) started getting some of that bad (GG) luck.

You sound like the connections of Tasty Temptation with that comment. After she won her last race, easily handling Milwaukee Appeal, her nemesis of last year, Casse says something to the effect "she better this year" and the owners echoed it. No she's not, dumbasses, she's just not getting that widest no cover move too early move from Husbands -- so far.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He had a whole bunch of bad rides/luck as a three year old. Then they took Gomez off and GP started getting good luck, and Ventura (in the race she lost to GP, among others) started getting some of that bad (GG) luck.

You sound like the connections of Tasty Temptation with that comment. After she won her last race, easily handling Milwaukee Appeal, her nemesis of last year, Casse says something to the effect "she better this year" and the owners echoed it. No she's not, dumbasses, she's just not getting that widest no cover move too early move from Husbands -- so far.

I liked him from Day 1 but I still don't think he ran races as a 3YO, even with trouble, that were remotely close to his Man O' War and Arlington Million last year. Sure, the Hill Prince and Va Derby were good races as was the Del Mar Derby, but a wide/uncovered trip in the Man O'War last year didn't adversely impact him at all. I thought he developed with time.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I liked him from Day 1 but I still don't think he ran races as a 3YO, even with trouble, that were remotely close to his Man O' War and Arlington Million last year. Sure, the Hill Prince and Va Derby were good races as was the Del Mar Derby, but a wide/uncovered trip in the Man O'War last year didn't adversely impact him at all. I thought he developed with time.

NT

It's Ramon, notice how Better Talk Now's career took off when Ramon took over the riding duties over Douglas, Prado, ect...There are times riders get unjust credit for winning rides but in the case of Ramon I truly believe the horse wouldn't have had half the career he had, had Ramon never ridden him.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's interesting that the great ride Gomez gave him in last year's Manhattan is being casually ignored.

[asudevil]

Will Rail Trip jump up on the dirt? Mr. Baffert always says that running on the synth's is like racing with galoshes on. How much can he improve? I'm sure Dicky will change his shoes and give his teeth a polishing.

[the_fat_man]

No doubt he ran some exceptional races as a 4 year old. But when you consider that he also 'should've' won the Del Mar Derby, the Jamaica, and the Holywood Derby, you get a sense of how good a 3 year old he really was.

More importantly, when we consider, in the context of the present discussion, that Gomez cost GP a G1 and a G2 (as a 3 year old) and Ventura at least 2 G1's, you get a sense of how bad that clown really is.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Will Rail Trip jump up on the dirt? Mr. Baffert always says that running on the synth's is like racing with galoshes on. How much can he improve? I'm sure Dicky will change his shoes and give his teeth a polishing.

his figures surely will but his ability is not changing. He is talented and figures prominently in any mile race.