Look Out, Quality Road
 

Rail Trip headed east - to Dutrow:

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/ra...o-dutrow-barn/

LOL is this a joke? I always thought Rail Trip could improve on dirt, but beat the mighty Quality Road? Get the hell out of here, QR would break his heart early.

Wow.

St. Trinians will now win the Pacific Classic in an open gallop.

Gio Ponti is likely for that spot. Clement said it on CapitalOtb this past Saturday morning.

I'd take St. Trinians over Gio Ponti.

I think I agree with you, I was just letting you know. If they dont change there minds now and run Z in the Pacific Classic, I really wont care anymore, it would be totally crazy not to let her beat up on Awesome Gem and Gio Ponti.

Can't wait for those 2 to hook up going 10F.

27 minutes to post at PID. Let's get some LIVE play going.

Why? Do you actually believe Raip Trip is even competition? Quality Road is truly the highest mountain, maybe Dick can run them as an entry, Rail Trip and I Want Revenge, Rail Trip being the rabbit for the big horse.

I'm getting ready to go to the track now.

Every person I run into today .. I'm going to ask them about the Comptroller thing and find out how they feel about NY Racing politics. Should be a whole lot of peace and quiet for me tonight.

Considering St. Trinians is a desperate lunge away from being the first Zenyatta slayer, it'd be unlikely that you'd get much of a price on her anywhere in Southern California in any race.

That being said, I'm pretty sure Gio Ponti would beat her going 10 furlongs at Del Mar.

NT

I have no idea how Rail Trip will run on dirt. Nor do I really think that much of him, though I know his was poorly ridden in a few of his races. It still needs to be proven to me that QR can get 10F against a 'competitive' field. He needs to do a lot more going 10F, in terms of how he runs, then he does at a shorter distance and I think he's vulnerable to a good horse.

It's interesting that the horse once thought to be a MILER is now 'accepted' as being able to get 10F, RT, and the horse that has yet to prove it can get 10F is now 'accepted' as being able to do so.

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

I have said for a while now that the QR not being able to get 10f is really not an argument at all. People love to hate this horse, he was a horse for the Gulfstream course even though he had won at Aqueduct, Saratoga and ran huge at Belmont. How do you run a 110 beyer, vs the champion 3yr old going 10f if you cant get 10f?

So much for DrugS golden rail @ PID in the 1st -- the wipe-out horse blows by the rail running 2, who I bet.:rolleyes:

I'm not twisting dynamics. I'm using dynamics to make a very strong case against the horse going 10F. He has the natural speed to control a race going up to 8F or so -- 9 at GP (or other speed favoring tracks). In other words, he's fast/good enough to not only set the pace (or chase a fast one) but also to repel any bids, whether early or late -- though, most recently, these came in the form of a premature move by a sprinter and a late run by, essentially, a plug; and he didn't exactly beat anything good down at GP. But I digress. Anyway, he has yet to show this same ability going 10F. I realize that Summer Bird, highly regarded by so many here, beat him both times last year but these were both races with a minimal number of moves. Doubtful we get a similar scenario in the CLASSIC, where, hopefully, there'll be a large field and, thus, plenty of chances for plenty of IDIOT moves. And, JV is not exactly the type that will put him INSIDE and wait patiently to make a final run. Know what I mean? Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.

It's not an unfair argument, but are you saying he isn't the best horse ( even at the distance ) or his superiority isn't enough to overcome a likely difficult dynamic?

Given the likelihood now of Rail Trip running in either ( or both ) the Whitney and Woodward, and given that Dutrow also understands the value of speed, as well as his main opponent's strongsuits, shouldn't you also now consider him vulnerable at 1 1/8 as well. I'm not saying Rail Trip is as good as Quality Road, but he is of obvious quality, and he could present the obstacle that didn't exist in the races you mentioned, and soften him up for others.

I think that your main problem isn't so much the distance, though obviously his possible achilles heel could be exposed the farther they go, but that you feel he has been able to dictate races. That could change...and on a very fair racetrack.

[quote=the_fat_man;668693 Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.[/QUOTE]

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

all salient points, made before by me and others...and fell on deaf ears. but maybe you can get somewhere with it.

It's sometimes a question of whom you address.

I think you missed the point again, sure he can get 1 1/4 depending on the trip and the competition, but as I have tried to tell you last month, it probably isn't his ideal distance. With his penchant of attracting money in any race he shows up in, is he really your best bet?

he may not be the best bet-but that's the case in any race he will enter from here on out.