Look Out, Quality Road - Page 2

RockHardTen1985 · #21 07-13-2010, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I think you missed the point again, sure he can get 1 1/4 depending on the trip and the competition, but as I have tried to tell you last month, it probably isn't his ideal distance. With his penchant of attracting money in any race he shows up in, is he really your best bet?

Who cares if its ideal? Are you kidding me, a lot of things in racing are not ideal. If he goes in the Classic he is the most likely winner, PERIOD. He is just faster then anyone else.

dalakhani · #22 07-13-2010, 05:13 PM

Do you guys think its fair to say that Rail Trip is likely to improve on dirt and with Dutrow? And if that is indeed the case, wouldn't that put him at least within sniffing distance of Quality Road?

I respect QR and he is the best horse that I have seen run this year. At the same time, he seems very beatable to me for some reason.

CSC · #23 07-13-2010, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

he may not be the best bet-but that's the case in any race he will enter from here on out.

Agreed, that is why if one has an opinion that he has a chink in his armour, he is one you try to beat.

CSC · #24 07-13-2010, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Who cares if its ideal? Are you kidding me, a lot of things in racing are not ideal. If he goes in the Classic he is the most likely winner, PERIOD. He is just faster then anyone else.

We don't know who will be in the field yet, but supposing the field turns up solid, I'm sure there will be better bets.

blackthroatedwind · #25 07-13-2010, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

he may not be the best bet-but that's the case in any race he will enter from here on out.

Case in point....why bother responding?

parsixfarms · #26 07-13-2010, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

I agree with the notion that Quality Road is at his "best" going a mile. That doesn't mean that he can't get 10F, but it's probably not his optimum distance.

It's probably a bit hazardous to compare Quality Road's performances in the Travers and JCGC last year because of questions surrounding his level of fitness coming into the Travers. With that caveat stated, when QR ran in the Travers, a 10F race with a legit (23.0, 26.4, and 1:11.0) pace, he tired and was beaten by a mediocrity like Hold Me Back. Because of the relatively soft pace of the JCGC (24.4, 49.3, 1:13.0), that race is probably not the best evidence of his ability to "get" 10F.

If Dutrow does half the work with Rail Trip that he did with horses like Saint Liam and Offlee Wild, and even if he doesn't, the pace scenario is unlikely to be similar to the JCGC. For that matter, a match-up in the Whitney or Woodward would present a completely different ball set-up from what QR faced in the Donn, especially with a legitimate closer like Blame waiting to take advantage.

letswastemoney · #27 07-13-2010, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

No way Quality Road is 6-5 if an undefeated Zenyatta shows up! The public will pound Zenyatta at this point no matter what, because she's the "undefeated" champion.

If Zenyatta doesn't show, then I'd agree probably 6-5 on QR.

RockHardTen1985 · #28 07-13-2010, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

We don't know who will be in the field yet, but supposing the field turns up solid, I'm sure there will be better bets.

Why is it about betting, I spent an hour last night discussing why I think Paddy O' Prado is a toss out this weekend, I am the first one to try to beat the chalk, but Quality Road is working on a resume this year and running speed figures that might make him go down as an all time great. I think he is that good, and I dont think Rail Trip going to Dutrow scares anyone in the Todd Barn.

parsixfarms · #29 07-13-2010, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Who cares if its ideal? Are you kidding me, a lot of things in racing are not ideal. If he goes in the Classic he is the most likely winner, PERIOD. He is just faster then anyone else.

Faster at a mile? Sure. But that doesn't mean he'll be "better" at 10F. In many races, the "fastest" horse doesn't win.

Danzig · #30 07-13-2010, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Case in point....why bother responding?

not sure...maybe i'm in the mood to debate?? lol

but, it's really just like any other race, with any other field. can you beat the fave? if so, try. if not, find the plays underneath, or in a sequence. if qr faces off vs a quality 10f'er, try to beat him. but, everyone really already knows that....

Danzig · #31 07-13-2010, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why is it about betting, I spent an hour last night discussing why I think Paddy O' Prado is a toss out this weekend, I am the first one to try to beat the chalk, but Quality Road is working on a resume this year and running speed figures that might make him go down as an all time great. I think he is that good, and I dont think Rail Trip going to Dutrow scares anyone in the Todd Barn.

he doesn't run enough to be an all-time great. i don't think when people toss that phrase around that they realize exactly what category that puts a horse.

CSC · #32 07-13-2010, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why is it about betting, I spent an hour last night discussing why I think Paddy O' Prado is a toss out this weekend, I am the first one to try to beat the chalk, but Quality Road is working on a resume this year and running speed figures that might make him go down as an all time great. I think he is that good, and I dont think Rail Trip going to Dutrow scares anyone in the Todd Barn.

I hate to use Medaglia D'oro as an example because he was better than what Quality Road has shown thus far shown, many will agree he was better at 9 furlongs than 10 and I think the same holds true for QR. Liking a horse at 9 doesn't necessarily mean they will win the Classic at 1 1/4.

RockHardTen1985 · #33 07-13-2010, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

he doesn't run enough to be an all-time great. i don't think when people toss that phrase around that they realize exactly what category that puts a horse.

Danzig I think the correct way to put it would be he has not run enough yet. If Quality Road runs in and wins the races they are pointing him to, I dont think it will be a debate at that point. Is that fair?

Danzig · #34 07-13-2010, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Danzig I think the correct way to put it would be he has not run enough yet. If Quality Road runs in and wins the races they are pointing him to, I dont think it will be a debate at that point. Is that fair?

no

an all time great is a horse that transcends time, generations, ages. a horse other horses get compared to. he won't be that.

man o war, yes. citation, native dancer, secretariat, dr fager, the bid, slew, affirmed. those are all time greats. hell, i wouldn't put him with a holy bull or skip away, tiznow...i'd take congaree over him at this point. if he wins the classic, i'd compare him to curlin-that doesn't make him an all time great.

CSC · #35 07-13-2010, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

no

an all time great is a horse that transcends time, generations, ages. a horse other horses get compared to. he won't be that.

man o war, yes. citation, native dancer, secretariat, dr fager, the bid, slew, affirmed. those are all time greats. hell, i wouldn't put him with a holy bull or skip away, tiznow...i'd take congaree over him at this point. if he wins the classic, i'd compare him to curlin-that doesn't make him an all time great.

Congaree ran a really good race in the Classic, he and Medaglia D'oro really set it up for Pleasantly Perfect a horse that obviously had an affinity for 1.25 M.

Danzig · #36 07-13-2010, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Congaree ran a really good race in the Classic, he and Medaglia D'oro really set it up for Pleasantly Perfect a horse that obviously had an affinity for 1.25 M.

always liked congaree. another horse who wasn't at his best at 10f, but tried his heart out. his big cap loss to milwaukee brew was one of his best efforts.

CSC · #37 07-13-2010, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

always liked congaree. another horse who wasn't at his best at 10f, but tried his heart out. his big cap loss to milwaukee brew was one of his best efforts.

Interesting you mention Milwaukee Brew, Frankel's other runner. I was waiting all year to put a bet on him in the Classic, unfortunately he was hurt going into the race. He really liked SA and it would have been interesting to see how he would have done given how the race came off.

freddymo · #38 07-13-2010, 07:22 PM

TVG has Ellis booked for BC so its a logical switch. Not to mention the 6 lengths

RockHardTen1985 · #39 07-13-2010, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left Bank

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/ra...o-dutrow-barn/
Maybe Zenyatta should go with him.

Only 2 hours late.

The Indomitable DrugS · #40 07-13-2010, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Considering St. Trinians is a desperate lunge away from being the first Zenyatta slayer,

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm pretty sure Gio Ponti would beat her going 10 furlongs at Del Mar.

Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.