Look Out, Quality Road

[blackthroatedwind]

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

I have said for a while now that the QR not being able to get 10f is really not an argument at all. People love to hate this horse, he was a horse for the Gulfstream course even though he had won at Aqueduct, Saratoga and ran huge at Belmont. How do you run a 110 beyer, vs the champion 3yr old going 10f if you cant get 10f?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have said for a while now that the QR not being able to get 10f is really not an argument at all. People love to hate this horse, he was a horse for the Gulfstream course even though he had won at Aqueduct, Saratoga and ran huge at Belmont. How do you run a 110 beyer, vs the champion 3yr old going 10f if you cant get 10f?

I think you missed the point again, sure he can get 1 1/4 depending on the trip and the competition, but as I have tried to tell you last month, it probably isn't his ideal distance. With his penchant of attracting money in any race he shows up in, is he really your best bet?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think you missed the point again, sure he can get 1 1/4 depending on the trip and the competition, but as I have tried to tell you last month, it probably isn't his ideal distance. With his penchant of attracting money in any race he shows up in, is he really your best bet?

he may not be the best bet-but that's the case in any race he will enter from here on out.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he may not be the best bet-but that's the case in any race he will enter from here on out.

Agreed, that is why if one has an opinion that he has a chink in his armour, he is one you try to beat.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he may not be the best bet-but that's the case in any race he will enter from here on out.

Case in point....why bother responding?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Case in point....why bother responding?

not sure...maybe i'm in the mood to debate?? lol

but, it's really just like any other race, with any other field. can you beat the fave? if so, try. if not, find the plays underneath, or in a sequence. if qr faces off vs a quality 10f'er, try to beat him. but, everyone really already knows that....

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think you missed the point again, sure he can get 1 1/4 depending on the trip and the competition, but as I have tried to tell you last month, it probably isn't his ideal distance. With his penchant of attracting money in any race he shows up in, is he really your best bet?

Who cares if its ideal? Are you kidding me, a lot of things in racing are not ideal. If he goes in the Classic he is the most likely winner, PERIOD. He is just faster then anyone else.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Who cares if its ideal? Are you kidding me, a lot of things in racing are not ideal. If he goes in the Classic he is the most likely winner, PERIOD. He is just faster then anyone else.

We don't know who will be in the field yet, but supposing the field turns up solid, I'm sure there will be better bets.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CSC

We don't know who will be in the field yet, but supposing the field turns up solid, I'm sure there will be better bets.

Why is it about betting, I spent an hour last night discussing why I think Paddy O' Prado is a toss out this weekend, I am the first one to try to beat the chalk, but Quality Road is working on a resume this year and running speed figures that might make him go down as an all time great. I think he is that good, and I dont think Rail Trip going to Dutrow scares anyone in the Todd Barn.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why is it about betting, I spent an hour last night discussing why I think Paddy O' Prado is a toss out this weekend, I am the first one to try to beat the chalk, but Quality Road is working on a resume this year and running speed figures that might make him go down as an all time great. I think he is that good, and I dont think Rail Trip going to Dutrow scares anyone in the Todd Barn.

he doesn't run enough to be an all-time great. i don't think when people toss that phrase around that they realize exactly what category that puts a horse.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why is it about betting, I spent an hour last night discussing why I think Paddy O' Prado is a toss out this weekend, I am the first one to try to beat the chalk, but Quality Road is working on a resume this year and running speed figures that might make him go down as an all time great. I think he is that good, and I dont think Rail Trip going to Dutrow scares anyone in the Todd Barn.

I hate to use Medaglia D'oro as an example because he was better than what Quality Road has shown thus far shown, many will agree he was better at 9 furlongs than 10 and I think the same holds true for QR. Liking a horse at 9 doesn't necessarily mean they will win the Classic at 1 1/4.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Who cares if its ideal? Are you kidding me, a lot of things in racing are not ideal. If he goes in the Classic he is the most likely winner, PERIOD. He is just faster then anyone else.

Faster at a mile? Sure. But that doesn't mean he'll be "better" at 10F. In many races, the "fastest" horse doesn't win.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

So much for DrugS golden rail @ PID in the 1st -- the wipe-out horse blows by the rail running 2, who I bet.

I'm not twisting dynamics. I'm using dynamics to make a very strong case against the horse going 10F. He has the natural speed to control a race going up to 8F or so -- 9 at GP (or other speed favoring tracks). In other words, he's fast/good enough to not only set the pace (or chase a fast one) but also to repel any bids, whether early or late -- though, most recently, these came in the form of a premature move by a sprinter and a late run by, essentially, a plug; and he didn't exactly beat anything good down at GP. But I digress. Anyway, he has yet to show this same ability going 10F. I realize that Summer Bird, highly regarded by so many here, beat him both times last year but these were both races with a minimal number of moves. Doubtful we get a similar scenario in the CLASSIC, where, hopefully, there'll be a large field and, thus, plenty of chances for plenty of IDIOT moves. And, JV is not exactly the type that will put him INSIDE and wait patiently to make a final run. Know what I mean? Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's not an unfair argument, but are you saying he isn't the best horse ( even at the distance ) or his superiority isn't enough to overcome a likely difficult dynamic?

Given the likelihood now of Rail Trip running in either ( or both ) the Whitney and Woodward, and given that Dutrow also understands the value of speed, as well as his main opponent's strongsuits, shouldn't you also now consider him vulnerable at 1 1/8 as well. I'm not saying Rail Trip is as good as Quality Road, but he is of obvious quality, and he could present the obstacle that didn't exist in the races you mentioned, and soften him up for others.

I think that your main problem isn't so much the distance, though obviously his possible achilles heel could be exposed the farther they go, but that you feel he has been able to dictate races. That could change...and on a very fair racetrack.

[johnny pinwheel]

[quote=the_fat_man;668693 Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.[/QUOTE]

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

No way Quality Road is 6-5 if an undefeated Zenyatta shows up! The public will pound Zenyatta at this point no matter what, because she's the "undefeated" champion.

If Zenyatta doesn't show, then I'd agree probably 6-5 on QR.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

all salient points, made before by me and others...and fell on deaf ears. but maybe you can get somewhere with it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

all salient points, made before by me and others...and fell on deaf ears. but maybe you can get somewhere with it.

It's sometimes a question of whom you address.

[dalakhani]

Do you guys think its fair to say that Rail Trip is likely to improve on dirt and with Dutrow? And if that is indeed the case, wouldn't that put him at least within sniffing distance of Quality Road?

I respect QR and he is the best horse that I have seen run this year. At the same time, he seems very beatable to me for some reason.