Ride on Normandy Invasion

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by JJP

I saw the piece and it was pretty clear there was some very deep paths. Orb appeared to be on the good part out in the center of the track, and Revolutionary closed on a good rail.

While I doubt the track was "even", I'm not so sure it matters much how it feels to a 110 pound woman walking on it compared to 1000 pound horses. It is very possible the footing underneath was not like what was on top.

[MaTH716]

I think that Javy started his early move because he saw Stevens starting to move on Oxbow. In my opinion Stevens is the one who made the real premature move. He was in the garden spot, saving all the groud. He even looked relatively clean heading for home, why did he go so early? That's the ride that should be put on the microscope more than Javy's.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While I doubt the track was "even", I'm not so sure it matters much how it feels to a 110 pound woman walking on it compared to 1000 pound horses. It is very possible the footing underneath was not like what was on top.

This is a good point.

[Travis Stone]

The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.

Unless its a different outcome whats the point? Either you think NI would have beaten Orb if he would have been 4 or 5 lengths further off the pace and moved at the same time as Orb or not.. If you think Orb was losing to NI perhaps you will just get a sweeter price in the Travers