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Old 05-06-2013, 12:56 PM
Travis Stone's Avatar
Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Louisiana
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The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:10 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Belmont Park
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone View Post
The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.

Unless its a different outcome whats the point? Either you think NI would have beaten Orb if he would have been 4 or 5 lengths further off the pace and moved at the same time as Orb or not.. If you think Orb was losing to NI perhaps you will just get a sweeter price in the Travers
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