Ride on Normandy Invasion

[JimmyEllis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me pose a question that hasn't been asked....if Orb had gotten the same ride/trip that Normandy Invasion did, and Normandy Invasion had gotten Orb's trip and ride, what do you think the outcome would have looked like?

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip. Very few, if any, win with NI's trip.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip. Very few, if any, win with NI's trip.

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip? I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. There were horses who had much better trips than Orb (such as Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and maybe a couple of others) and they still finished behind him. All the horses with bad trips got beat by a million lengths (except for Normandy Invasion and Oxbow). Are you suggesting that some horse that got beat by 30 lengths would have won with a better trip?

The only horse that anyone could possibly say might have won with a better trip is NI. If he and Orb got identical trips, my opinion is that Orb still wins, but I could see someone disagreeing.

Anyway, I have the same opinion as 95% of the posters here. I think NI was too close and I think he moved too soon. I think it cost him 2nd place. I think he would have easily been 2nd with a more patient ride.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Did you guys read that Chad Brown is now considering the Preakness for Normandy Invasion? As you all know, he originally said that he was not running. Now he is saying that they may run. They're going to see how the horse does over the next several days and then make a decision.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip? I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. There were horses who had much better trips than Orb (such as Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and maybe a couple of others) and they still finished behind him. All the horses with bad trips got beat by a million lengths (except for Normandy Invasion and Oxbow). Are you suggesting that some horse that got beat by 30 lengths would have won with a better trip?

The only horse that anyone could possibly say might have won with a better trip is NI. If he and Orb got identical trips, my opinion is that Orb still wins, but I could see someone disagreeing.

Anyway, I have the same opinion as 95% of the posters here. I think NI was too close and I think he moved too soon. I think it cost him 2nd place. I think he would have easily been 2nd with a more patient ride.

Revolutionary had a couple spots of trouble, not horrible but he might have been closer to Orb, though I doubt he is nearly the horse Orb is.

[ninetoone]

I'll start by saying I don't make a pimple on most of the handicapper's asses on here, but I do enjoy all the posts & I've been on the board since the beginning & even the original Yahoo board. I'm just a weekend warrior who knows a little more than the average wing nut out there. The way I see it is that Javier gave a horse with a lot of prior excuses a chance to prove that he was a champion, and the horse just didn't have it. I know JC's getting hammered on here for this, but the fact of the matter is, he's been on a couple of awesome horses in his career & he knows what a truly special horse can do. Orb's time was fairly ordinary & so was the Beyer (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong). As Travis said in his post, "Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro." JC gave NI a chance to prove that he was one of those special types & he was wrong. The winning time was 2:02.89, nothing special...the way I see it, JC made the decision that he had the best horse & a horse that could sustain that kind of bid & run. If you could have frozen time at a mile & maybe even showed him his fractions, would he change anything? I'm not sure, maybe, maybe not. if he wrangles him back & loses, he gets criticized for that too I guess. I'm not sure if the Barbaro & Big Brown Derbies are good analogies or not as far as internal fractions, etc....but I did bet Barbaro (the last time I had a winner) and I remember being happy at the top of the stretch that Prado was going to at least give me a chance to be right....and I felt the same way the other day. Sorry for the rambling post & please be gentle, I'm just a layperson that thoroughly enjoys the discussion!!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I'll start by saying I don't make a pimple on most of the handicapper's asses on here, but I do enjoy all the posts & I've been on the board since the beginning & even the original Yahoo board. I'm just a weekend warrior who knows a little more than the average wing nut out there. The way I see it is that Javier gave a horse with a lot of prior excuses a chance to prove that he was a champion, and the horse just didn't have it. I know JC's getting hammered on here for this, but the fact of the matter is, he's been on a couple of awesome horses in his career & he knows what a truly special horse can do. Orb's time was fairly ordinary & so was the Beyer (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong). As Travis said in his post, "Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro." JC gave NI a chance to prove that he was one of those special types & he was wrong. The winning time was 2:02.89, nothing special...the way I see it, JC made the decision that he had the best horse & a horse that could sustain that kind of bid & run. If you could have frozen time at a mile & maybe even showed him his fractions, would he change anything? I'm not sure, maybe, maybe not. if he wrangles him back & loses, he gets criticized for that too I guess. I'm not sure if the Barbaro & Big Brown Derbies are good analogies or not as far as internal fractions, etc....but I did bet Barbaro (the last time I had a winner) and I remember being happy at the top of the stretch that Prado was going to at least give me a chance to be right....and I felt the same way the other day. Sorry for the rambling post & please be gentle, I'm just a layperson that thoroughly enjoys the discussion!!

I'm not sure I understand your logic. I agree with you that if NI was some incredible horse (for example Secretariat), that he could have won the race, even with the premature move. How is that relevant? NI is not Secretariat.

NI got a bad ride and it cost him a couple of lengths. Nobody on here said that NI was Secretariat. Nobody on here said that the race NI ran in the Derby was as good as the race Barbaro ran in the Derby. All we said was that NI's chances were compromised by a premature move.

I think 95% of experienced handicappers share the belief that NI would have run 2nd with a more patient ride. I really don't think it takes a genius to see that NI moved too soon. A lot of us on here disagree about a lot of things when it comes to handicapping and watching races but we pretty much all agree that NI moved too soon. It's not a close call.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not sure I understand your logic. I agree with you that if NI was some incredible horse (for example Secretariat), that he could have won the race, even with the premature move. How is that relevant? NI is not Secretariat.

NI got a bad ride and it cost him a couple of lengths. Nobody on here said that NI was Secretariat. Nobody on here said that the race NI ran in the Derby was as good as the race Barbaro ran in the Derby. All we said was that NI's chances were compromised by a premature move.

I think 95% of experienced handicappers share the belief that NI would have run 2nd with a more patient ride. I really don't think it takes a genius to see that NI moved too soon. A lot of us on here disagree about a lot of things when it comes to handicapping and watching races but we pretty much all agree that NI moved too soon. It's not a close call.

I guess what I'm saying is that, for example, a 2:02 flat (for example) final time was not completely unreasonable for NI even considering the fractions of the race. That's not asking him to be Secretariat at all...just a little better caliber horse. If he was able to get him home in 2:02 flat, he wins by 4 lengths or so & everyone is on JC's jock. Instead, he gives the horse an opportunity to succeed.& he's the goat. One of the things I thought I learned on this board over the years from people like BTW was that it's mostly the horse & not so much the jockey. I guess I just don't see it as the gross blunder that everyone else seems to view it as...and I personally don't believe it cost NI the win.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I guess what I'm saying is that, for example, a 2:02 flat (for example) final time was not completely unreasonable for NI even considering the fractions of the race. That's not asking him to be Secretariat at all...just a little better caliber horse. If he was able to get him home in 2:02 flat, he wins by 4 lengths or so & everyone is on JC's jock. Instead, he gives the horse an opportunity to succeed.& he's the goat. One of the things I thought I learned on this board over the years from people like BTW was that it's mostly the horse & not so much the jockey. I guess I just don't see it as the gross blunder that everyone else seems to view it as...and I personally don't believe it cost NI the win.

I think a 2:02 flat final time, under the conditions would be totally unreasonable. I'm not big on speed figures but let's talk speed figures for a second just to make a point. Let's assume that Orb's Beyer of 104 is an accurate figure. You said you didn't see why NI couldn't have run 2:02 flat. A 2:02 flat would equate to about a 113 Beyer. Why would you expect NI to be able to run a 113 Beyer?

With regard to whether Javy's move was a "gross blunder", I guess it depends what your definition of "gross blunder" is. I think the majority of us think he cost the horse 2nd place. I don't know if that qualifies as a gross blunder.

[Seattleallstar]

Chad was better off leaving Jose Lezcano on the horse, Castellano in the Wood must was given some sense of false security on the horse that he thought would work in the Derby by moving earlier