Ride on Normandy Invasion

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I truly don't know how to measure this.

It's very simple ... the further back you're positioned the better.

Orb was 18.75 lengths back after a half mile, and he, like everyone else, was still too close to the pace.

Had Rosario gone into the race with the plan to allow Orb to drop out of the field early and try to lose contact with the entire pack, it would have resulted in a better performance from Orb and he would have won with greater authority.

The problem is, NO ONE expected a pace anywhere close to that. The insanely fast pace was unexpected.

The last sloppy track was 2010, and Rosario allowed the pathetic longshot Make Music For Me to lag 28 lengths off of the early pace. He's in a purple box in this picture: He ultimately made a big wide move on the far turn and finished 4th



The horse in the red box was Ice Box... he was 24 lengths back after a half mile and was "FLYING" late to finish 2nd despite running into lots of traffic.

Here is the rest of Ice Box's career ...

Belmont Stakes: 9th beaten 11 lengths as the 9/5 post time favorite.

Haskell Stakes: 6th beaten 7 lengths in a field of just seven.

Travers: 8th beaten 7 lengths at 7/1 odds.

Monmouth Cup: 5th beaten 7 lengths at 9/2 odds in field of 6

Allowance Race: 3rd at 7/2 odds

Woodward: 6th at 11/1 odds

Jockey Club Gold Cup: 7th and last at 10/1 odds

Breeders Cup Classic: 8th at 30/1 odds.


The Mine That Bird tactics of dropping out of the pack early ...



would have been genius this year.

But that's in hindsight. No one could have predicted that pace...and if you're going to purposefully try and lose early contact with the field, you better be damn sure that the psychotic pace actually materializes.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's very simple ... the further back you're positioned the better.

I understand that. I was more specifically trying to determine how to evaluate the horses I listed when placed in each others shoes. In 4 of the cases the same shoes.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's very simple ... the further back you're positioned the better.

Orb was 18.75 lengths back after a half mile, and he, like everyone else, was still too close to the pace.

Had Rosario gone into the race with the plan to allow Orb to drop out of the field early and try to lose contact with the entire pack, it would have resulted in a better performance from Orb and he would have won with greater authority.

The problem is, NO ONE expected a pace anywhere close to that. The insanely fast pace was unexpected.

The last sloppy track was 2010, and Rosario allowed the pathetic longshot Make Music For Me to lag 28 lengths off of the early pace. He's in a purple box in this picture: He ultimately made a big wide move on the far turn and finished 4th



The horse in the red box was Ice Box... he was 24 lengths back after a half mile and was "FLYING" late to finish 2nd despite running into lots of traffic.

Here is the rest of Ice Box's career ...

Belmont Stakes: 9th beaten 11 lengths as the 9/5 post time favorite.

Haskell Stakes: 6th beaten 7 lengths in a field of just seven.

Travers: 8th beaten 7 lengths at 7/1 odds.

Monmouth Cup: 5th beaten 7 lengths at 9/2 odds in field of 6

Allowance Race: 3rd at 7/2 odds

Woodward: 6th at 11/1 odds

Jockey Club Gold Cup: 7th and last at 10/1 odds

Breeders Cup Classic: 8th at 30/1 odds.


The Mine That Bird tactics of dropping out of the pack early ...



would have been genius this year.

But that's in hindsight. No one could have predicted that pace...and if you're going to purposefully try and lose early contact with the field, you better be damn sure that the psychotic pace actually materializes.

A good jockey doesn't need to predict the pace. A good jockey will position his horse based on how the pace unfolds. Of course a jockey will usually have a general game plan going into a race, but a good jockey will change the game plan as the race unfolds. Rosario didn't plan on being 18 lengths behind. He was probably expecting the half to go in :47 and he probably planned on being 5-6 lengths back. But once the race started and he could see there was a suicide pace, he dropped much further back, as any good jockey would do in that situation.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

A good jockey doesn't need to predict the pace. A good jockey will position his horse based on how the pace unfolds. Of course a jockey will usually have a general game plan going into a race, but a good jockey will change the game plan as the race unfolds. Rosario didn't plan on being 18 lengths behind. He was probably expecting the half to go in :47 and he probably planned on being 5-6 lengths back. But once the race started and he could see there was a suicide pace, he dropped much further back, as any good jockey would do in that situation.

You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.

Sometimes there is nothing you can do. If your horse gets rank and runs off, there is nothing you can do.

With regard to Goldencents, he was in a tough spot. He gunned early and then I think he realized how fast they were going but it was too late for him to really take way back at that point. As bad as he ran, I don't think he would have done anything no matter where he was laying. He probably didn't like the track. I didn't like Goldencents at all going into the race, but I know he is capable of running better than he ran. It was good that Krigger took care of the horse and wrapped up on him once he saw he was hopelessly beat.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.

I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Revidere

I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987

That's funny, had not seen that.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Revidere

I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987

He's totally wrong and it's not even debatable. Most of the good jocks can tell you how fast they're going, give or take half a second. The really good exercise riders can do the same thing. You tell a top exercise rider to work 1:01, they will usually come very close. They will be somewhere between 1:00 3/5 and 1:01 2/5 almost every time. Not all exercise riders can do this, but most of the top ones can.

[Calzone Lord]

'95% of the time the best horse wins'

'jockeys know exactly how fast they're going in races'


You can't make this stuff up.

[Danzig]

i read somewhere that 95% of statistics are made up...

[asudevil]

The horse in the red box was Ice Box... he was 24 lengths back after a half mile and was "FLYING" late to finish 2nd despite running into lots of traffic.

Here is the rest of Ice Box's career ...

Belmont Stakes: 9th beaten 11 lengths as the 9/5 post time favorite.

Haskell Stakes: 6th beaten 7 lengths in a field of just seven.

Travers: 8th beaten 7 lengths at 7/1 odds.

Monmouth Cup: 5th beaten 7 lengths at 9/2 odds in field of 6

Allowance Race: 3rd at 7/2 odds

Woodward: 6th at 11/1 odds

Jockey Club Gold Cup: 7th and last at 10/1 odds

Breeders Cup Classic: 8th at 30/1 odds.

This example just gave me agida! I had IB at 85-1 in the Wynn futures. Lezcano couldn't follow Borel up the rail? Had to go 10 wide, stop, go 3 more wide, and then make a huge run?