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#1
05-05-2013, 11:13 PM
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Mylute is Midnight Lute out of a Valid Expectations mare. He was about a length and a half behind Orb and following him wide the entire way.
He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and finished in a photo for 4th with Normandy Invasion. Ideally, Chad Brown would have somehow had the foresight to know Palace Malice would run off in blinkers and the race would be a +30 Shackleford and Comma to The Top can be grabbed and dragged along by their riders through a half in 48.63 in the 2011 Derby... but certainly no speed of their caliber was in this field, BUT all it ever takes is for one horse to completely run-off and the others will chase for their position. The mediocre Make Music For Me (Bernstein out of a Carson City mare) was 20th and last by more than 28 lengths after a half mile behind the 46.16 half mile in 2010. Make Music For Me closed 24 lengths in the Derby to finish 4th. Why? Because he liked the added distance? It sure didn't prove that way in the Belmont when he was 10th at every call the whole way around behind a slow pace. Whenever you have a +30 race ... the further back you are the better off you are. Even being 28 lengths back, like Make Music For Me, is much preferable to being 8 lengths back. 
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#2
05-05-2013, 11:32 PM
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#3
05-05-2013, 11:41 PM
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It's still early, but Midnight Lute offspring have won 19% of their sprints (111) and finished in the money in 48% of them. They've won 12% of their routes (71) and finished in the money in 39% of them Meanwhile, Valid Expectations was a pure sprinter who never even raced beyond a mile in a racing career that spanned 27 starts.
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#4
05-05-2013, 11:50 PM
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#5
05-05-2013, 11:58 PM
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Any horse can clunk up and run well at a distance beyond their best if there is an insane pace and the race falls apart.
I remember a horse that Skiffington had called Hollywood Handsome. He was by Groovy out of a His Majesty mare who won grass races at 1 3/8ths coming from last. There are exceptions and things that dont make sense in breeding/racing. I hardly paid attention to the Derby run up and didnt bet a cent on the race. Someone whose opinion I respect didn't like NI because of the pedigree. After watching the race it is hard to say he was wrong that a slight horse out of a Boston Harbor mare would have trouble making the 1/1/4.
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#6
05-06-2013, 12:01 AM
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This years half mile has been called "the 4th fastest in Derby history" but it's really a three-way tie for being the 2nd fastest in history, because both Groovy and Top Avenger ran a generic 45 1/5.
Here's a recap of the top finishers in these meltdown years: Fastest Half in Derby History: Songandaprayer 44.86 Monarchos rallied from 16 lengths back to win this Derby. Point Given, was 2nd by 1.5 lengths after a mile, but he faded badly in the stretch to finish 5th beaten 11.5 lengths. Point Given won the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Haskell, and Travers in his next four starts. His 12+ length victory in the Belmont Stakes over both Monarchos and Invisible Ink helped prove conclusively he was too close to the Derby pace. Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Top Avenger 45 1/5 Pleasant Colony rallied from 18 lengths back to win. The top five finishers raced 16th, 19th, 12th, 18th, and 20th after a half mile. Pleasant Colony was off at 3/1 odds. The 2nd place finisher was 34/1. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th place finishers were all part of the mutual field. Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Groovy 45 1/5 Ferdinand raced dead last early in 16th position and won this Derby from 20 lengths back at 17/1 odds. Snow Chief made the first middle move and faded to finish 12th. He won the Preakness by 4 lengths over Ferdinand next time out. Broad Brush raced 6th after a half mile, led after a mile, and finished 3rd. Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Palace Malace (45.33) 19 horse field, the top five finishers raced 16th, 15th, 18th, 7th, and 17th after a half mile.
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