Ride on Normandy Invasion

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I had him in the Pick 5, but I also had five other horses including the winner, so it's not as if him not winning ruined my day.

If his early move was an optical illusion based on others stopping, how come there was no one even close to moving with him? If taking on the leaders that early was just a natural progression of the race's dynamics, shouldn't there have been other horses following his move then? But there were none. It was just Javier, hard-sending after speed that was about to collapse and then getting passed over the top by more patient riders.

This is a fair question. But first there seems to be some kind of disparity in the opinions of many not WHETHER he made an early move but when it occured. After 6 furlongs had been run NI was in 6th place 2 1/2 lengths in front of IMLD, who was another length clear of Charming Kitten. Other than the pacesetter, who was 3 1/2 lengths in front of Oxbow, that 2 1/2 length separation was the largest in the field. Every horse in front of NI had run a faster 1/2 mile and a faster 6 furlongs. To my way of thinking it was this point in the race where his chances were compromised.

To answer your question, the closest horse behind him was going backwards and all of the movement was occuring well back in the pack, so there were horses moving with him, but they were so far back the eye doesn't see them gaining on him, it sees the horses that were just in front of him falling behind. From the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/4 pole he had every right to pass the horses that had run faster than he did up to that point. It wasn't as if he cleared 5 lengths on Oxbow at the 1/4 pole.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is as indefensible an absolute as someone that says Normandy Invasion would definitely have won had he been ridden well.

There are a lot of misconceptions in racing, but to me, few things are as misunderstood as how seemingly minor events in a race can dramatically affect the outcome. The ride on Normandy Invasion was far from a minor event.

Let me pose a question that hasn't been asked....if Orb had gotten the same ride/trip that Normandy Invasion did, and Normandy Invasion had gotten Orb's trip and ride, what do you think the outcome would have looked like?

This is a great question and it shouldn't be restricted to these two horses. There are limitations on who should be compared I suppose, but how about placing Oxbow into NI's trip for a second, or Verrazano ? I understand these two horses are usually placed close to the front end but given the way the Wood was run it wouldn't be inconceivable to think that Verrazano could have sat further back than he did in the Derby. As much as NI's ride cost him a better placement there were others in this race who ran faster than he did early on and whose chances were compromised just as much if not more.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

This is a fair question. But first there seems to be some kind of disparity in the opinions of many not WHETHER he made an early move but when it occured. After 6 furlongs had been run NI was in 6th place 2 1/2 lengths in front of IMLD, who was another length clear of Charming Kitten. Other than the pacesetter, who was 3 1/2 lengths in front of Oxbow, that 2 1/2 length separation was the largest in the field. Every horse in front of NI had run a faster 1/2 mile and a faster 6 furlongs. To my way of thinking it was this point in the race where his chances were compromised.

To answer your question, the closest horse behind him was going backwards and all of the movement was occuring well back in the pack, so there were horses moving with him, but they were so far back the eye doesn't see them gaining on him, it sees the horses that were just in front of him falling behind. From the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/4 pole he had every right to pass the horses that had run faster than he did up to that point. It wasn't as if he cleared 5 lengths on Oxbow at the 1/4 pole.

Fair point, but those moves at the back of the pack were being made more out of necessity so those horses didn't have 20 lengths to make up at the top of the stretch, whereas Javier, thanks to NI's tactical speed, had much more flexibility in when he decided to go after the leaders.