Ride on Normandy Invasion

[NTamm1215]

These are his updated PPs after yesterday. If you're arguing that he didn't move too early, you're wrong.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These are his updated PPs after yesterday. If you're arguing that he didn't move too early, you're wrong.

You know I agree, but PPs at 10f look a little different and can be deceiving. You are shown the 4f/1m instead of 4f/6f calls.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These are his updated PPs after yesterday. If you're arguing that he didn't move too early, you're wrong.

I don't agree that you can say without reservation that it cost him 2nd.

He is out of a Boston Harbor mare. IMO he can't get 1 1/4. He was almost 9 lengths behind a suicidal pace at the half and still 5 lengths back at the 3/4's. If the speed horses last a little longer than no one is saying anything about moving too early. Let's not forget that he was on the rail and would have been directly behind the horses who finished up the track if he hadn't moved outside. The rest of his trip outside of the supposed premature move was almost perfect.

You'll get a chance to watch him lose ground again in the stretch in the Belmont

[Cannon Shell]

I hear now that he won't be running again until Saratoga. Maybe ever.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I hear now that he won't be running again until Saratoga. Maybe ever.

that kind of news used to surprise.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

that kind of news used to surprise.

Well he never actually did win a stakes race so I guess they will need that. Just a natural reaction nowdays.

[Calzone Lord]

Anytime a post time favorite wins the Kentucky Derby from off of the pace with an eye-catching move ...people will always give them the benefit of the doubt.

Fusaichi Pegasus was hailed as the second coming when he was taken back off of a 45.99 pace and won with a perfect trip. He reportedly sold for $60 million after the Derby ... and honestly, $60 million probably seemed a huge bargain for "Fu Peg" given all of the hysteria associated with a well bred post time favorite winning the Derby.

Street Sense got a dream run up the rail after a 46.26 half mile. Few people cared that Hard Spun set a legit pace and would have won had Street Sense not got the clean inside run. Few people cared that Curlin was buried behind a wall of tiring horses.

Street Sense won just two of his next five starts, both at odds of 1/5. In his three defeats, he was a good 2nd in the Preakness at 6/5 odds, 2nd in the Kentucky Cup to Hard Spun at 4/5 odds, and 4th in the Breeders Cup Classic as the 5/2 post time favorite. Curlin paid $10.80 in the BC Classic and Hard Spun was 2nd at 8/1 odds. The exacta of "Derby excuse horses" paid $70.80

Fusaichi Pegasus was a soundly beaten 2nd in the Preakness at odds 1/5. He won the Jerome. And then finished 6th in Breeders Cup Classic as the 6/5 favorite. Captain Steve was the big excuse horse in the Derby the Fu Peg year. He made that stupid pre-mature move into a hot pace and took the lead on the far turn. He was beaten just a neck to Fu Peg in the Preakness, and finished 3rd in the BC Classic at 13/1 odds.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I don't agree that you can say without reservation that it cost him 2nd.

Of course you can't say it without reservation. But using breeding as the reason is laughable.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course you can't say it without reservation. But using breeding as the reason is laughable.

Really? So breeding doesn't play a role in horses ability to run a distance of ground? Really?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Really? So breeding doesn't play a role in horses ability to run a distance of ground? Really?

Of course it does, but since I watched the race it is pretty obvious to me that under the right circumstances he can get the distance. Moving as he did between the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls was a bit silly, and he still hung on for a good fourth. If that was the trainer's plan, as it seems, it was a dumb plan.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course it does, but since I watched the race it is pretty obvious to me that under the right circumstances he can get the distance. Moving as he did between the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls was a bit silly, and he still hung on for a good fourth. If that was the trainer's plan, as it seems, it was a dumb plan.

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

You make it sound as if those were his only two options. Staying outside of the collapsing speed but not hard sending NI after them at the 1/2 pole was completely plausible. Riders get beaten with premature moves every day, it just so happens that this one came under the microscope of the Derby. I don't think it's debatable that Castellano's ride cost NI any chance at the win though.

[Calzone Lord]

Mylute is Midnight Lute out of a Valid Expectations mare. He was about a length and a half behind Orb and following him wide the entire way.

He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and finished in a photo for 4th with Normandy Invasion.

Ideally, Chad Brown would have somehow had the foresight to know Palace Malice would run off in blinkers and the race would be a +30

Shackleford and Comma to The Top can be grabbed and dragged along by their riders through a half in 48.63 in the 2011 Derby... but certainly no speed of their caliber was in this field, BUT all it ever takes is for one horse to completely run-off and the others will chase for their position.

The mediocre Make Music For Me (Bernstein out of a Carson City mare) was 20th and last by more than 28 lengths after a half mile behind the 46.16 half mile in 2010. Make Music For Me closed 24 lengths in the Derby to finish 4th. Why? Because he liked the added distance? It sure didn't prove that way in the Belmont when he was 10th at every call the whole way around behind a slow pace.

Whenever you have a +30 race ... the further back you are the better off you are. Even being 28 lengths back, like Make Music For Me, is much preferable to being 8 lengths back.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Mylute is Midnight Lute out of a Valid Expectations mare. He was about a length and a half behind Orb and following him wide the entire way.

He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and finished in a photo for 4th with Normandy Invasion.

Ideally, Chad Brown would have somehow had the foresight to know Palace Malice would run off in blinkers and the race would be a +30

Shackleford and Comma to The Top can be grabbed and dragged along by their riders through a half in 48.63 in the 2011 Derby... but certainly no speed of their caliber was in this field, BUT all it ever takes is for one horse to completely run-off and the others will chase for their position.

The mediocre Make Music For Me (Bernstein out of a Carson City mare) was 20th and last by more than 28 lengths after a half mile behind the 46.16 half mile in 2010. Make Music For Me closed 24 lengths in the Derby to finish 4th. Why? Because he liked the added distance? It sure didn't prove that way in the Belmont when he was 10th at every call the whole way around behind a slow pace.

Whenever you have a +30 race ... the further back you are the better off you are. Even being 28 lengths back, like Make Music For Me, is much preferable to being 8 lengths back.

Midnight Lute sprinted because of airway issues not pedigree

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Midnight Lute sprinted because of airway issues not pedigree

I've heard that said many times now.

It's still early, but Midnight Lute offspring have won 19% of their sprints (111) and finished in the money in 48% of them.

They've won 12% of their routes (71) and finished in the money in 39% of them

Meanwhile, Valid Expectations was a pure sprinter who never even raced beyond a mile in a racing career that spanned 27 starts.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course you can't say it without reservation. But using breeding as the reason is laughable.

modern breeding for distance has pretty much lost its relevance in handicapping. A horse like Beholder would have been an auto-toss in a race like the Oaks 30 years ago.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I don't agree that you can say without reservation that it cost him 2nd.

He is out of a Boston Harbor mare. IMO he can't get 1 1/4. He was almost 9 lengths behind a suicidal pace at the half and still 5 lengths back at the 3/4's. If the speed horses last a little longer than no one is saying anything about moving too early. Let's not forget that he was on the rail and would have been directly behind the horses who finished up the track if he hadn't moved outside. The rest of his trip outside of the supposed premature move was almost perfect.

You'll get a chance to watch him lose ground again in the stretch in the Belmont

With all due respect, this is nonsense.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

With all due respect, this is nonsense.

Of course because surely you and CJ have all the answers and no one elses opinion means anything. Of course it is easy to believe in absolutes when there is little chance to be proven wrong.

[Cannon Shell]

Normandy Invasion, who has been pegged as a late-running horse, has been sharper in his workouts and his regular training in part by design. Brown has said he would like Normandy Invasion to show enough quickness out of the gate to secure a good position under Javier Castellano.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...rsday-training

Im sure this had nothing to do with it.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Of course because surely you and CJ have all the answers and no one elses opinion means anything. Of course it is easy to believe in absolutes when there is little chance to be proven wrong.

Come on, Chuck, it's a little far fetched to use his pedigree as a reason for his loss yesterday. You may have felt he was not bred for 10 furlongs prior to yesterday's race. However, he had no chance to get 10 furlongs with Revolutionary's pedigree with the ride he was given.

The idea to get him more involved early pre-supposed a moderate pace. Castellano has two major flaws as a rider. He is a HORRIBLE judge of pace and he has patented the ill-timed far turn move. Both of these flaws were exposed yesterday. The pace was MUCH faster than most expected, but there he was on Normandy Invasion, shoulder to shoulder with Goldencents just before the half-mile pole. He then asks him for a huge move at the 7/16ths pole and collars Palace Malice and Oxbow, who are not passed by another horse for at least another furlong.