Ride on Normandy Invasion

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course you can't say it without reservation. But using breeding as the reason is laughable.

Really? So breeding doesn't play a role in horses ability to run a distance of ground? Really?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Really? So breeding doesn't play a role in horses ability to run a distance of ground? Really?

Of course it does, but since I watched the race it is pretty obvious to me that under the right circumstances he can get the distance. Moving as he did between the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls was a bit silly, and he still hung on for a good fourth. If that was the trainer's plan, as it seems, it was a dumb plan.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course it does, but since I watched the race it is pretty obvious to me that under the right circumstances he can get the distance. Moving as he did between the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls was a bit silly, and he still hung on for a good fourth. If that was the trainer's plan, as it seems, it was a dumb plan.

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

You make it sound as if those were his only two options. Staying outside of the collapsing speed but not hard sending NI after them at the 1/2 pole was completely plausible. Riders get beaten with premature moves every day, it just so happens that this one came under the microscope of the Derby. I don't think it's debatable that Castellano's ride cost NI any chance at the win though.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You make it sound as if those were his only two options. Staying outside of the collapsing speed but not hard sending NI after them at the 1/2 pole was completely plausible. Riders get beaten with premature moves every day, it just so happens that this one came under the microscope of the Derby. I don't think it's debatable that Castellano's ride cost NI any chance at the win though.

It is debatable, that is the crux of the issue. If there were absolutes it would be a lot easier to win. IMO his move was visually enhanced by the other speed stopping. Don't the internal fractions show that?

How many of you bet on him?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How many of you bet on him?

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

How about trackus ground loss?

[Travis Stone]

The move was eerily similar to the move he put Bernardini through in the BC Classic. It was too early. I'm surprised there is debate about it. He was pushed-on for his bid outside the quarter pole in a race where the winning move is almost often after they straighten away.

If I'll Have Another was pushed into the pace on the far turn, he doesn't win. Obviously not every race is the same, but how many times is the Derby winner moving into contention as they near the quarter pole, and then taking over in the straight versus a big move on the turn? There are only so many Big Browns.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

It is debatable, that is the crux of the issue. If there were absolutes it would be a lot easier to win. IMO his move was visually enhanced by the other speed stopping. Don't the internal fractions show that?

How many of you bet on him?

I had him in the Pick 5, but I also had five other horses including the winner, so it's not as if him not winning ruined my day.

If his early move was an optical illusion based on others stopping, how come there was no one even close to moving with him? If taking on the leaders that early was just a natural progression of the race's dynamics, shouldn't there have been other horses following his move then? But there were none. It was just Javier, hard-sending after speed that was about to collapse and then getting passed over the top by more patient riders.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I had him in the Pick 5, but I also had five other horses including the winner, so it's not as if him not winning ruined my day.

If his early move was an optical illusion based on others stopping, how come there was no one even close to moving with him? If taking on the leaders that early was just a natural progression of the race's dynamics, shouldn't there have been other horses following his move then? But there were none. It was just Javier, hard-sending after speed that was about to collapse and then getting passed over the top by more patient riders.

It was a 19 horse race. 3 finished ahead of him. When he made his move he passed 4 of them. What happened to the other 11?

[Calzone Lord]

Mylute is Midnight Lute out of a Valid Expectations mare. He was about a length and a half behind Orb and following him wide the entire way.

He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and finished in a photo for 4th with Normandy Invasion.

Ideally, Chad Brown would have somehow had the foresight to know Palace Malice would run off in blinkers and the race would be a +30

Shackleford and Comma to The Top can be grabbed and dragged along by their riders through a half in 48.63 in the 2011 Derby... but certainly no speed of their caliber was in this field, BUT all it ever takes is for one horse to completely run-off and the others will chase for their position.

The mediocre Make Music For Me (Bernstein out of a Carson City mare) was 20th and last by more than 28 lengths after a half mile behind the 46.16 half mile in 2010. Make Music For Me closed 24 lengths in the Derby to finish 4th. Why? Because he liked the added distance? It sure didn't prove that way in the Belmont when he was 10th at every call the whole way around behind a slow pace.

Whenever you have a +30 race ... the further back you are the better off you are. Even being 28 lengths back, like Make Music For Me, is much preferable to being 8 lengths back.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Mylute is Midnight Lute out of a Valid Expectations mare. He was about a length and a half behind Orb and following him wide the entire way.

He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and finished in a photo for 4th with Normandy Invasion.

Ideally, Chad Brown would have somehow had the foresight to know Palace Malice would run off in blinkers and the race would be a +30

Shackleford and Comma to The Top can be grabbed and dragged along by their riders through a half in 48.63 in the 2011 Derby... but certainly no speed of their caliber was in this field, BUT all it ever takes is for one horse to completely run-off and the others will chase for their position.

The mediocre Make Music For Me (Bernstein out of a Carson City mare) was 20th and last by more than 28 lengths after a half mile behind the 46.16 half mile in 2010. Make Music For Me closed 24 lengths in the Derby to finish 4th. Why? Because he liked the added distance? It sure didn't prove that way in the Belmont when he was 10th at every call the whole way around behind a slow pace.

Whenever you have a +30 race ... the further back you are the better off you are. Even being 28 lengths back, like Make Music For Me, is much preferable to being 8 lengths back.

Midnight Lute sprinted because of airway issues not pedigree

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Midnight Lute sprinted because of airway issues not pedigree

I've heard that said many times now.

It's still early, but Midnight Lute offspring have won 19% of their sprints (111) and finished in the money in 48% of them.

They've won 12% of their routes (71) and finished in the money in 39% of them

Meanwhile, Valid Expectations was a pure sprinter who never even raced beyond a mile in a racing career that spanned 27 starts.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I've heard that said many times now.

It's still early, but Midnight Lute offspring have won 19% of their sprints (111) and finished in the money in 48% of them.

They've won 12% of their routes (71) and finished in the money in 39% of them

Meanwhile, Valid Expectations was a pure sprinter who never even raced beyond a mile in a racing career that spanned 27 starts.

Well he was a pretty good sprinter himself no? Aren't the route numbers better than you'd expect for a sire who was only a sprinter? Especially considering that his oldest foals are 3? His best horses have mostly run well in routes.

[Cannon Shell]

Any horse can clunk up and run well at a distance beyond their best if there is an insane pace and the race falls apart.

I remember a horse that Skiffington had called Hollywood Handsome. He was by Groovy out of a His Majesty mare who won grass races at 1 3/8ths coming from last. There are exceptions and things that dont make sense in breeding/racing.

I hardly paid attention to the Derby run up and didnt bet a cent on the race. Someone whose opinion I respect didn't like NI because of the pedigree. After watching the race it is hard to say he was wrong that a slight horse out of a Boston Harbor mare would have trouble making the 1/1/4.

[Calzone Lord]

This years half mile has been called "the 4th fastest in Derby history" but it's really a three-way tie for being the 2nd fastest in history, because both Groovy and Top Avenger ran a generic 45 1/5.

Here's a recap of the top finishers in these meltdown years:

Fastest Half in Derby History: Songandaprayer 44.86

Monarchos rallied from 16 lengths back to win this Derby.

Point Given, was 2nd by 1.5 lengths after a mile, but he faded badly in the stretch to finish 5th beaten 11.5 lengths.

Point Given won the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Haskell, and Travers in his next four starts. His 12+ length victory in the Belmont Stakes over both Monarchos and Invisible Ink helped prove conclusively he was too close to the Derby pace.

Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Top Avenger 45 1/5

Pleasant Colony rallied from 18 lengths back to win. The top five finishers raced 16th, 19th, 12th, 18th, and 20th after a half mile. Pleasant Colony was off at 3/1 odds. The 2nd place finisher was 34/1. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th place finishers were all part of the mutual field.


Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Groovy 45 1/5

Ferdinand raced dead last early in 16th position and won this Derby from 20 lengths back at 17/1 odds. Snow Chief made the first middle move and faded to finish 12th. He won the Preakness by 4 lengths over Ferdinand next time out. Broad Brush raced 6th after a half mile, led after a mile, and finished 3rd.

Co 2nd fastest Derby half: Palace Malace (45.33)

19 horse field, the top five finishers raced 16th, 15th, 18th, 7th, and 17th after a half mile.