Ride on Normandy Invasion

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course it does, but since I watched the race it is pretty obvious to me that under the right circumstances he can get the distance. Moving as he did between the 1/4 and 1/2 mile calls was a bit silly, and he still hung on for a good fourth. If that was the trainer's plan, as it seems, it was a dumb plan.

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If he gets trapped behind the collapsing speed you'd kill him for that.

You make it sound as if those were his only two options. Staying outside of the collapsing speed but not hard sending NI after them at the 1/2 pole was completely plausible. Riders get beaten with premature moves every day, it just so happens that this one came under the microscope of the Derby. I don't think it's debatable that Castellano's ride cost NI any chance at the win though.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You make it sound as if those were his only two options. Staying outside of the collapsing speed but not hard sending NI after them at the 1/2 pole was completely plausible. Riders get beaten with premature moves every day, it just so happens that this one came under the microscope of the Derby. I don't think it's debatable that Castellano's ride cost NI any chance at the win though.

It is debatable, that is the crux of the issue. If there were absolutes it would be a lot easier to win. IMO his move was visually enhanced by the other speed stopping. Don't the internal fractions show that?

How many of you bet on him?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How many of you bet on him?

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

How about trackus ground loss?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How about trackus ground loss?

NBC did a pretty cool segment with Donna Barton walking the track.

It came right before the Kevin Krigger piece.

The inside path and 2-path both were firm. As she walked across the track, her foot started to sink down in the 3 path, 4 path, 5 path. She said "the track is much deeper here" But from about the 6 or 7 path outward, the ground was suddenly firm again.

It's tricky to account for ground loss when the rail and 2 path look good, the 7 path and out look good ... and everything in between them looks deeper, and according to Donna Barton, was deeper as she walked over it.

[Calzone Lord]

The piece was with 2 hours and 42 minutes left in the 4 hour broadcast if you DVR'd it. She's standing in the stretch.

Maybe next time it rains, they could have Dickinson walk the course in ladies shoes like he used to when he'd train.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

NBC did a pretty cool segment with Donna Barton walking the track.

It came right before the Kevin Krigger piece.

The inside path and 2-path both were firm. As she walked across the track, her foot started to sink down in the 3 path, 4 path, 5 path. She said "the track is much deeper here" But from about the 6 or 7 path outward, the ground was suddenly firm again.

It's tricky to account for ground loss when the rail and 2 path look good, the 7 path and out look good ... and everything in between them looks deeper, and according to Donna Barton, was deeper as she walked over it.

I saw the piece and it was pretty clear there was some very deep paths. Orb appeared to be on the good part out in the center of the track, and Revolutionary closed on a good rail.

[Travis Stone]

The move was eerily similar to the move he put Bernardini through in the BC Classic. It was too early. I'm surprised there is debate about it. He was pushed-on for his bid outside the quarter pole in a race where the winning move is almost often after they straighten away.

If I'll Have Another was pushed into the pace on the far turn, he doesn't win. Obviously not every race is the same, but how many times is the Derby winner moving into contention as they near the quarter pole, and then taking over in the straight versus a big move on the turn? There are only so many Big Browns.

[Cannon Shell]

He ran 40 feet less than the Orb. What is that 2 or 3 lengths?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He ran 40 feet less than the Orb. What is that 2 or 3 lengths?

That stat would matter if he was far back as Orb, versus moving into the teeth of a wicked pace many lengths ahead of Orb.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

It is debatable, that is the crux of the issue. If there were absolutes it would be a lot easier to win. IMO his move was visually enhanced by the other speed stopping. Don't the internal fractions show that?

How many of you bet on him?

I had him in the Pick 5, but I also had five other horses including the winner, so it's not as if him not winning ruined my day.

If his early move was an optical illusion based on others stopping, how come there was no one even close to moving with him? If taking on the leaders that early was just a natural progression of the race's dynamics, shouldn't there have been other horses following his move then? But there were none. It was just Javier, hard-sending after speed that was about to collapse and then getting passed over the top by more patient riders.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I had him in the Pick 5, but I also had five other horses including the winner, so it's not as if him not winning ruined my day.

If his early move was an optical illusion based on others stopping, how come there was no one even close to moving with him? If taking on the leaders that early was just a natural progression of the race's dynamics, shouldn't there have been other horses following his move then? But there were none. It was just Javier, hard-sending after speed that was about to collapse and then getting passed over the top by more patient riders.

It was a 19 horse race. 3 finished ahead of him. When he made his move he passed 4 of them. What happened to the other 11?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

It was a 19 horse race. 3 finished ahead of him. When he made his move he passed 4 of them. What happened to the other 11?

I don't understand. Are you saying he wouldn't have passed those 4 horses had he not moved when he did? And the fact that only 3 beat him is a credit to the horse, not some kind of retrospective justification of a ride almost every serious handicapper agrees wasn't good.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't understand. Are you saying he wouldn't have passed those 4 horses had he not moved when he did? And the fact that only 3 beat him is a credit to the horse, not some kind of retrospective justification of a ride almost every serious handicapper agrees wasn't good.

Just that 11 horses didn't manage to finish ahead of him despite his riders egregious mistiming. Perhaps some of those may have done better had then laid closer? And if NI's ride was egregious then what do you call Mike Smiths or John Velasquez's or Trujillo's or Kriggers?