Ride on Normandy Invasion

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not sure I understand your logic. I agree with you that if NI was some incredible horse (for example Secretariat), that he could have won the race, even with the premature move. How is that relevant? NI is not Secretariat.

NI got a bad ride and it cost him a couple of lengths. Nobody on here said that NI was Secretariat. Nobody on here said that the race NI ran in the Derby was as good as the race Barbaro ran in the Derby. All we said was that NI's chances were compromised by a premature move.

I think 95% of experienced handicappers share the belief that NI would have run 2nd with a more patient ride. I really don't think it takes a genius to see that NI moved too soon. A lot of us on here disagree about a lot of things when it comes to handicapping and watching races but we pretty much all agree that NI moved too soon. It's not a close call.

I guess what I'm saying is that, for example, a 2:02 flat (for example) final time was not completely unreasonable for NI even considering the fractions of the race. That's not asking him to be Secretariat at all...just a little better caliber horse. If he was able to get him home in 2:02 flat, he wins by 4 lengths or so & everyone is on JC's jock. Instead, he gives the horse an opportunity to succeed.& he's the goat. One of the things I thought I learned on this board over the years from people like BTW was that it's mostly the horse & not so much the jockey. I guess I just don't see it as the gross blunder that everyone else seems to view it as...and I personally don't believe it cost NI the win.