Ride on Normandy Invasion

Cannon Shell · #1 05-06-2013, 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

That stat would matter if he was far back as Orb, versus moving into the teeth of a wicked pace many lengths ahead of Orb.

So ground loss only matter based on pace?

Travis Stone · #2 05-06-2013, 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

So ground loss only matter based on pace?

No, of course not. The race completely collapsed. Normandy Invasion made a premature move in my opinion worth more than the x number of feet he traveled less than Orb. Let's be real. Orb won, but Golden Soul was second. The race was an utter meltdown. If Normandy Invasion waits, I think he wins, or comes very close.

freddymo · #3 05-06-2013, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

No, of course not. The race completely collapsed. Normandy Invasion made a premature move in my opinion worth more than the x number of feet he traveled less than Orb. Let's be real. Orb won, but Golden Soul was second. The race was an utter meltdown. If Normandy Invasion waits, I think he wins, or comes very close.

So assuming they were side by side in Orb's position for the first mile you believe NI would have out finished Orb and won the derby? It's not a preposterous position but it sure doesn't have much evidence behind it. Now lo and behold this colt that is still eligible for 1NX is going to out run the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby winner who is on the improve? Lot's of very smart people think NI is a very good colt and he obviously was given a suspect ride but IMO he only beats ORB Saturday if Orb fell. Currently Orb is quite a bit faster and more importantly handy enough for a good rider to adapt to changing race dynamics.

Cannon Shell · #4 05-06-2013, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Normandy Invasion made a premature move in my opinion worth more than the x number of feet he traveled less than Orb

How does one go about calculating this? I'm being serious. When a horse "moves" is basically a visual interpretation of the race considering virtually all dirt races are slowing down when the moves occur. How do you measure that against 40 feet?

DaTruth · #5 05-06-2013, 12:14 AM

In hindsight, it was foolish for Javier to make that move during the second quarter, but perhaps Javier was just following orders, albeit orders that were given with the thought that the pace wouldn't be as fast as it was. If Chad Brown's strategy was to have Normandy Invasion actually be in the lead in the stretch (something which NI hadn't done in a long time) and make the others catch him, then the strategy worked as planned.

Cannon Shell · #6 05-06-2013, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth

In hindsight, it was foolish for Javier to make that move during the second quarter

According to the equibase chart (which obviously isnt as accurate as trakus data) he actually lost ground during that quarter.

cmorioles · #7 05-06-2013, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

According to the equibase chart (which obviously isnt as accurate as trakus data) he actually lost ground during that quarter.

Maybe, but he passed five horses while doing so. That is pretty rare at the distance, that early in the race.

10 pnt move up · #8 05-06-2013, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Maybe, but he passed five horses while doing so. That is pretty rare at the distance, that early in the race.

Flower Alley did something similar.

In fact I think that should go down as one of the all time worst Derby rides, think it was Chavez.

blackthroatedwind · #9 05-06-2013, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Flower Alley did something similar.

In fact I think that should go down as one of the all time worst Derby rides, think it was Chavez.

It was Chavez, and it was the reason some of us weren't at all surprised he went on to have the success he did later that year.

tiggerv · #10 05-06-2013, 01:24 PM

I needed Normandy Invasion so count me among the people unhappy about the ride. I broke out my old Fat Chart program to show the graphic of the race. It doesn't look great this small but maybe it is helpful. X-axis is race distance, Y-axis is lengths back, colors are saddle cloth

freddymo · #11 05-06-2013, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Maybe, but he passed five horses while doing so. That is pretty rare at the distance, that early in the race.

To be fair there are 19 horses in the race so passing 5 is like passing 2.5 in a field of 10 and you see that plenty.

Frankly all but a few of the horses moved to early. I guess the NI supporters are of the opinion that if the jockey had the were with all to rate 4 or 5 lengths further back and then make a move 2 or 300 yard later that NI would have beaten the two that finished ahead of him. I guess that is fair but I really dont get the point other then NI could have been second with a better timed move.

Does anyone believe NI is a better horse then Orb or just that he still should be looked at as a viable option the next time he races? Shoot Goldenscent is a viable option so is Palice Malice and Revolution for that matter.

Cannon Shell · #12 05-06-2013, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Maybe, but he passed five horses while doing so. That is pretty rare at the distance, that early in the race.

Isn't the 2nd quarter at 1 1/4 run partially around the 1st turn? Him being on the inside may have more to do with that.

cmorioles · #13 05-06-2013, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Isn't the 2nd quarter at 1 1/4 run partially around the 1st turn? Him being on the inside may have more to do with that.

Possible it had something to do with it, but usually horses that establish position inside are good, not moving up, while those outside try to push forward to get inside more. Anything is possible, but moving that much into a pace that fast is a death sentence almost every single time I've seen it done. I don't think people realize just how taxing that pace was.

Sightseek · #14 05-06-2013, 06:45 AM

Even if he moved a little later, he still doesn't beat Orb.

blackthroatedwind · #15 05-06-2013, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Even if he moved a little later, he still doesn't beat Orb.

This is as indefensible an absolute as someone that says Normandy Invasion would definitely have won had he been ridden well.

There are a lot of misconceptions in racing, but to me, few things are as misunderstood as how seemingly minor events in a race can dramatically affect the outcome. The ride on Normandy Invasion was far from a minor event.

Let me pose a question that hasn't been asked....if Orb had gotten the same ride/trip that Normandy Invasion did, and Normandy Invasion had gotten Orb's trip and ride, what do you think the outcome would have looked like?

JimmyEllis · #16 05-06-2013, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me pose a question that hasn't been asked....if Orb had gotten the same ride/trip that Normandy Invasion did, and Normandy Invasion had gotten Orb's trip and ride, what do you think the outcome would have looked like?

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip. Very few, if any, win with NI's trip.

Rupert Pupkin · #17 05-06-2013, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip. Very few, if any, win with NI's trip.

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip? I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. There were horses who had much better trips than Orb (such as Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and maybe a couple of others) and they still finished behind him. All the horses with bad trips got beat by a million lengths (except for Normandy Invasion and Oxbow). Are you suggesting that some horse that got beat by 30 lengths would have won with a better trip?

The only horse that anyone could possibly say might have won with a better trip is NI. If he and Orb got identical trips, my opinion is that Orb still wins, but I could see someone disagreeing.

Anyway, I have the same opinion as 95% of the posters here. I think NI was too close and I think he moved too soon. I think it cost him 2nd place. I think he would have easily been 2nd with a more patient ride.

Rupert Pupkin · #18 05-06-2013, 04:40 PM

Did you guys read that Chad Brown is now considering the Preakness for Normandy Invasion? As you all know, he originally said that he was not running. Now he is saying that they may run. They're going to see how the horse does over the next several days and then make a decision.

10 pnt move up · #19 05-06-2013, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip? I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. There were horses who had much better trips than Orb (such as Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and maybe a couple of others) and they still finished behind him. All the horses with bad trips got beat by a million lengths (except for Normandy Invasion and Oxbow). Are you suggesting that some horse that got beat by 30 lengths would have won with a better trip?

The only horse that anyone could possibly say might have won with a better trip is NI. If he and Orb got identical trips, my opinion is that Orb still wins, but I could see someone disagreeing.

Anyway, I have the same opinion as 95% of the posters here. I think NI was too close and I think he moved too soon. I think it cost him 2nd place. I think he would have easily been 2nd with a more patient ride.

Revolutionary had a couple spots of trouble, not horrible but he might have been closer to Orb, though I doubt he is nearly the horse Orb is.

ninetoone · #20 05-06-2013, 06:50 PM

I'll start by saying I don't make a pimple on most of the handicapper's asses on here, but I do enjoy all the posts & I've been on the board since the beginning & even the original Yahoo board. I'm just a weekend warrior who knows a little more than the average wing nut out there. The way I see it is that Javier gave a horse with a lot of prior excuses a chance to prove that he was a champion, and the horse just didn't have it. I know JC's getting hammered on here for this, but the fact of the matter is, he's been on a couple of awesome horses in his career & he knows what a truly special horse can do. Orb's time was fairly ordinary & so was the Beyer (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong). As Travis said in his post, "Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro." JC gave NI a chance to prove that he was one of those special types & he was wrong. The winning time was 2:02.89, nothing special...the way I see it, JC made the decision that he had the best horse & a horse that could sustain that kind of bid & run. If you could have frozen time at a mile & maybe even showed him his fractions, would he change anything? I'm not sure, maybe, maybe not. if he wrangles him back & loses, he gets criticized for that too I guess. I'm not sure if the Barbaro & Big Brown Derbies are good analogies or not as far as internal fractions, etc....but I did bet Barbaro (the last time I had a winner) and I remember being happy at the top of the stretch that Prado was going to at least give me a chance to be right....and I felt the same way the other day. Sorry for the rambling post & please be gentle, I'm just a layperson that thoroughly enjoys the discussion!!