2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.