2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Legit Derby contender or not, 75-1 seems like an underlay on him at this point in time in my opinion.

No offense intended, but I don't think you are able to separate your being a fan and how you rate horses. If this horse had a different sire you wouldn't be nearly as interested in him as you are.

The only truth to that is that I became aware of the horse because of his sire.

Had I happened to have seen his debut otherwise, I'd have been impressed with the late flying move he made when he finally got his act together.

Again, he seems like a horse to me that will improve a lot as both the distances get longer and he gets more seasoning.

Combine that with what looks to be yet another lackluster group of classic horses, and, well, I think the horse is in the upper echelon of soon to be 3yos that have a real shot of winning the Derby.

I have never been a fan of Dynaformer, in the least, but I was utterly convinced Barbaro was going to win the Derby, even before his so called lackluster dirt debut in the Holy Bull. More so afterwards, come to think of it.

The only offspring of IC I ever liked for the Derby was Uncle Mo, but I also thought it was unlikely he'd run in it.

I thought Indian Blessing was overrated, and this was after watching her win twice. This from a person who said she was going to win the BCJF race before she made her first start.

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

Depends on what we're calling a lights out performance, I guess.

15 of the 23 horses broke their maiden by 2 lengths or more. 12 of the 21 I have BSF for earned a figure of 84 or higher.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not that it changes anything, but Protagonist did run at 3. In fact he was in the prep race won by Cannonade right before the Derby.

Should have cracked my Champions book instead of relying upon memory.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

If very recent history is any indication -- you might want to flirt around with something very lightly raced that won either a turf or synthetic route in fast time.

Big Brown won his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga -- got the fastest Saratoga 2yo Turf Beyer of the decade. Barbaro ran a triple digit Beyer in a turf route as a 2yo in his 2nd start. He was the fastest 2yo turf horse since Incurable Optimist.

Even Animal Kingdom won his maiden race 2nd time out by a good margin running an 84 Beyer going 9 furlongs at Keeneland in October. Wise Dan's Presque Isle Mile was UNQUESTIONABLY the best performance by any horse at PID this year. He just crushed the Graded Stakes Fayette at 9fs by a wide margin and got only a 97 Beyer in victory. You're talking about an older male Graded Stakes winner dominant in wide margin victory -- only 13 points faster than a 2nd time starter 2yo attempting 9fs.

Any lightly raced 2yo who can run in the 100 range routing on the turf - or 85 range routing on synthetic - is worth a look. The less classier his beaten competion the better. In theory, surface should matter... but distance has suddenly become of MAJOR importance because of how lightly raced and trained these horses are now compared to even six years ago.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

[Rudeboyelvis]

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

It's not a redboard if you post about it before the race.

What's outlandish about it? If My Miss Aruillia is even money instead of 2/1 the race works out way better for me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

He did tell me 2 weeks before that she was his lock of the weekend.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

Betsy says the same thing.

[Dahoss]

Is taking a picture of winning tickets the new cool thing to do?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Is taking a picture of winning tickets the new cool thing to do?

I would guess it's cooler than all the pics I have of recent losing tix?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Should have cracked my Champions book instead of relying upon memory.

That's what I did. I have two editions of that book. I see there's a new third edition of the book coming out. It's BS. The DRF should send you either supplements if you own older copies or should publish less expensive addenda to the original.

The funny part is that the tagline in the advertisement for the new one is "From Ack Ack to Zenyatta". Turn that phrase around and you have most people's reaction to getting force-fed the latest "happenings" with the great mare.

[tector]

I have the first edition, skipped the second. I'll probably go for the third, which is out now, apparently. Wonder how long it will be before it shows up on Amazon.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by golfer

I would guess it's cooler than all the pics I have of recent losing tix?

We could flood this place with all of our recent losers.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Is taking a picture of winning tickets the new cool thing to do?

You have to cash the tickets to get the money so if you dont take a picture what would you frame?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The only truth to that is that I became aware of the horse because of his sire.

Had I happened to have seen his debut otherwise, I'd have been impressed with the late flying move he made when he finally got his act together.

Again, he seems like a horse to me that will improve a lot as both the distances get longer and he gets more seasoning.

Combine that with what looks to be yet another lackluster group of classic horses, and, well, I think the horse is in the upper echelon of soon to be 3yos that have a real shot of winning the Derby.

I have never been a fan of Dynaformer, in the least, but I was utterly convinced Barbaro was going to win the Derby, even before his so called lackluster dirt debut in the Holy Bull. More so afterwards, come to think of it.

The only offspring of IC I ever liked for the Derby was Uncle Mo, but I also thought it was unlikely he'd run in it.

I thought Indian Blessing was overrated, and this was after watching her win twice. This from a person who said she was going to win the BCJF race before she made her first start.

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

Indian Blessing was a dam fast filly. How was she overrated?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

We could flood this place with all of our recent losers.

Kodak would be a $300 dollar stock......................

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Indian Blessing was a dam fast filly. How was she overrated?

She wasn't, even if her 4YO campaign was basically wrecked by a trip to Dubai. She was very good.

IC also said that he thought Uncle Mo's King's Bishop was overrated while his Timely Writer was extraordinary.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

I think I gave you Musical Romance, no?